buying condo downtown

[03c0upe]

thinking of buying a condo downtown as an investment, i know no one has the answer but what is everyones opinion on what condos will be worth around 2010? Do you guys think the condos will drop in price or go up? Im looking for opinions especially from realtors

[tiger_handheld]

read on business bc that realestate sales were down 8% for Q1 - 2008.

[RayBot]

i've got one for sale downtown...its an 18th floor unit in Yaletown Park I. 656 Sqft 1bedroom and den.

http://mlsr.realtylink.org/mlsr_get/...=1&MLS=V696700

In all honesty, i don't think its the safest investment, a downtown condo. I just can't imagine that downtown is meant to be a high residential area. Although i don't think the real estate market is going to overall crash, but its going to dissipate one region at a time in areas that aren't really the best residential regions. Whistler went first....and downtown will see its turn.

The thing is, Tiger Handheld's post is true....but in ways, its misleading. If those statistics is generalizing the overall real estate market, and more than half of those properties that are sold are condos.....well that means there is a very good chance that value of single family housing and land could have gone up a good notch!

In other words, if you can afford a downtown condo, you may want to invest into buying a house...it can almost be assured that it may be the safer investment.

My 2 cents

[Realtor]

Originally Posted by 03c0upe

thinking of buying a condo downtown as an investment, i know no one has the answer but what is everyones opinion on what condos will be worth around 2010? Do you guys think the condos will drop in price or go up? Im looking for opinions especially from realtors

My personal outlook on the market is that it will continue to climb, although not at a rate that we have seen in previous years.

Downtown condo's usually hold their value the best in comparison to other areas, because dowtown is usually where a lot of people want to be and there is limited space down there. However, a house with land will usually hold it's value because land is even more scarce.

[miss_crayon]

Originally Posted by Realtor

My personal outlook on the market is that it will continue to climb, although not at a rate that we have seen in previous years.

so true. real estate will always hold value no matter the decrease in sales. however, many potential buyers still seem to believe the pricing will go down and that they'll "wait," when i really don't see developers lowering their prices.

anyways, i say the best place to invest is still in the downtown core. it's a lifestyle that many still want to live by so even if you decide to resell or rent out--there will definitely be a market for it.

[1.8tradoman]

Originally Posted by miss_crayon

so true. real estate will always hold value no matter the decrease in sales. however, many potential buyers still seem to believe the pricing will go down and that they'll "wait," when i really don't see developers lowering their prices.

anyways, i say the best place to invest is still in the downtown core. it's a lifestyle that many still want to live by so even if you decide to resell or rent out--there will definitely be a market for it.

hmm... REAL ESTATE WILL ALWAYS HOLD VALUE NO MATTER THE DECREASE IN SALES? wow talk about being insulated from THE REST OF THE WORLD. Most people will do a little research when buying a $100 digital camera but when it comes to a $300,000 condo, they come to revscene! Wow.

PS: "BEST PLACE ON EARTH" ?

[johny]

Originally Posted by miss_crayon

so true. real estate will always hold value no matter the decrease in sales.

prices in the US have dropped 100's of thousands for a house in the last couple years... the price drops will move to Canada soon as the US gets worse and Canada follows. I think most of Canada will drop, starting with Ontario as all their factories close and everyone is unemployed. but Vancouver will probably be the safest place in Canada and unfortunately might not drop. but I wouldn't be buying anywhere outside the GVRD in the next couple years.

[miss_crayon]

Originally Posted by 1.8tradoman

hmm... REAL ESTATE WILL ALWAYS HOLD VALUE NO MATTER THE DECREASE IN SALES? wow talk about being insulated from THE REST OF THE WORLD. Most people will do a little research when buying a $100 digital camera but when it comes to a $300,000 condo, they come to revscene! Wow.

PS: "BEST PLACE ON EARTH" ?

what i mean is, yeah the market is slowing down..but i don't see the value of (lets just say) my unit in the downtown core will decrease in terms of price just because of it. we're not in the middle of a crisis or anything.

everyone thought prices were gonna drop years ago but we've yet to see it happen.

and i'm not sure if you were directing the "research" line towards me or what not, but i firmly stand behind what i'm doing and saying since i have been exposed to this industry long enough. it might not sit well with everyone else, but just my opinion for the OP who was simply trying to grasp a better understanding/idea to the realtors/sales in the real estate market.

[Realtor]

There actually are a number of arguments for both sides of the coin.

Some say that the market will continue to increase due to the olympics, foreign investment from Asian markets and East Coaster's coming here, the amount of money the government is pumping into our economy building a better infrastructure in the GVRD, the fact that Vancouver is still one of the best places in the world to live and is still not too expensive in comparison to some other cities, our interest rates have been dropping again so it's cheaper to borrow money, etc etc etc.

For the other side of the coin, people say that the winter olympics is only a short lived event and that it can't sustain prices, our Canadian dollar is so high at this point in time that it costs a lot more for foreign people to buy here, the baby boomers will evenutally die off leading to more supply, etc etc etc.

I'm kinda tired now and I can't remember any more points, but yeah like I stated earlier, I think the market will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. As for 2011 and 2012 and afterwards, the market will most likely slow down or even dip a bit. But that will depend on many factors, so it's impossible to tell.

[1.8tradoman]

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/...f5d7c3&k=83871

Just want you (and others who are thinking about buying) to do some research before making a major financial decision like buying a condo. There are some cracks forming in the hysterical idea that house prices in Vancouver will continue to rise forever. For those who weren't around in 1981, house prices collapsed 50% over a 18 month period in Vancouver, and I am not talking about crackville, chinatown, east-side properties! Hardest areas hit included WESTSIDE SFH. Obviously those were different times and history rarely repeats itself right? Just look how long and hard you saved up for that down payment and I'd hate to see people throw away their savings. For example, 20% drop in your $300k condo will cost you 60k. BUYER BEWARE!

PS: nothing against Agents but they make a living selling.

I do this for free...

[1.8tradoman]

Sorry I'm not trying to pick on you Miss Crayon! I think your cute!

[1.8tradoman]

Originally Posted by 03c0upe

thinking of buying a condo downtown as an investment, i know no one has the answer but what is everyones opinion on what condos will be worth around 2010? Do you guys think the condos will drop in price or go up? Im looking for opinions especially from realtors

I thought I would run some numbers with you for free! Firstly I want to apologize for all the random links but here's how it goes:

Lets look at a REVSCENE listing:

http://www.revscene.net/forums/showthread.php?t=525502

Asking $469,000 lots of extras, granite, blah, blah etc. Run this number thru the mortgage calculator at the MLS WEBSITE: Put in $20,000 deposit, 5.5% mortgage rate, 25 yr amortization and you get a total of $2740 a month in payments. Add condo fee: $243/month. Add property tax $90/month. Numbers taking directly from listing ad (check it yourself): http://www.mls.ca/PropertyDetails.as...ertyID=6817867. That's a grand total of $3000 a month (plus change).

Now lets have a look at what kind of revenue this property can generate!
Viola: http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/apa/656030354.html , and its on the 30st floor! Lots of extras too! marble anyone? Lots of similarities to the revscene listing but not exactly the same but pretty damn close for 5 minutes of cross referencing.

Rental income $1390... I'll let that number speak for itself.


So if your condo keeps appreciating double digits (1x%) year after year, you can ignore the $1600 shortfall a month(thats $19,000 a year). But what if there is a "slowdown" as mentioned by others on this thread? I will let you analyze those numbers for yourself. Just remember in 25 years you will have exactly what you paid for: A 25 year-old condo...


PS: since its your investment property, I haven't told you that you still have the taxman to deal with!

[Realtor]

1.8tradoman - you make good points, but I just wanted to add a few things.

The ad for the rental property is only 537 sq. ft vs 656 sq. ft. for the property for sale. I haven't seen either units and I don't know if there are any other factors affecting the value of each of these properties, but just based on sq. ft. alone, there should be a substantial difference in price.

As for the monthly difference, it will depend on how much you are going to put down as a down payment (the larger the down payment, the less of a monthly difference). Also, I'm pretty sure they dropped prime to 4.5% lately and people that want a mortgage should be able to get a mortgage around the 4 mark or better.

Another key thing to remember is that you don't "lose or gain" money till you sell. So yes if you sell it and the market has turned, then you will lose money, but if you hold onto it if there is a slowdown and you sell it when the market goes back up, then technically the slowdown has not affected you.

If this is a second property then yes you will have to pay capital gain tax on your property after you sell it, but that's only if you actually make money. As for capital gain, it's about half of whatever you make and is added to your personal income.

Basically, without going into every single detail and crunching out every single number, yes everyone should do their research before jumping into a big money situation such as buying a property. Just remember though, that you have to factor in many different things to see if it's a good time to invest for you or not.

P.S. some agents make a living by just selling, some actually try to do a good job and work for their clients best interests and are rewarded for doing so.

[1.8tradoman]

Great discussion here Realtor!

Here is another listing from craigslist that is closer to the Revscene listing in terms of sq. ft. http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/apa/631989512.html, looks like its 660 sq ft. and ASKING $1550 per month.

The amount of the down payment a person puts down could also be less! some mortgage brokers offer zero down on some developments ( difficult to find nowadays with tightening lending practices) so your monthly payments would be higher. And don't forget 40 year mortgages that allow you to borrow even more! So depending on the situation your monthly payments could even be higher for this revscene listing!

The mortgage rate that i quoted is a 5 year closed rate of 5.5% that I was approved for very recently, you can get a better rate of course but that would be a variable rate. The Bank of Canada did reduce its lending rate to other banks but those who have gone to the bank for a pre-approved mortgage know that banks have been tighten lending practices this year.

[1.8tradoman]

You made a point about holding the condo until the market goes back up. Hmm... so basically your saying that you can try to "time the market"? Well if right now we are in an up market why would you buy now rather than wait for the down market? The housing boom is over: http://www.reportonbusiness.com/serv...0417.wcrea0417

And guess where this info came from? Canadian Real Estate Association.

"If this is a second property then yes you will have to pay capital gain tax on your property after you sell it, but that's only if you actually make money. As for capital gain, it's about half of whatever you make and is added to your personal income."

Isn't the point of buying an investment to make money? The numbers just don't make sense no matter how you tweak them...

[Realtor]

Thank you for the chance to banter back as well...

Yes you used to be able to do a zero down on certain properties, but like you say, it's very rare if there are even any that continue to do so. Yes with a 40 year mortgage, you can borrow more but the payments would be higher.

I'm pretty sure that you can get better than 5.5% for even a fixed rate, but it all depends on the situation, and yes banks have really tightened up due to all the screw ups in the states.

As for "timing the market" I'm not telling everyone to buy and hold till the market is right, I'm basically replying to your comment that implied that the market would be on a downturn for 25 years.
As for your article:

"Despite the softening market, home prices have continued to rise, although at a slower pace. The average price of a Canadian resale home rose by 5.5 per cent year-over-year in the first quarter to $327,620, the smallest increase since the fourth quarter of 2001 and half as big as last year's 11-per-cent rise."

So yes it's definitely not as hot this year, but things are still increasing and moving, albeit at a slower pace.

“There's a window of opportunity for the market to cool down and affordability to improve before the next rate tightening cycle, and if that happens … we shouldn't see a pullback in home prices,” Mr. Alexander said.

This quote states that they think that demand will not be as hot and that lower interest rates will help affordability - therefore even though there isn't as much demand, prices should not drop much (unless they have priced it wrong).

Yes the point of buying an investment is to make money, but your above comments just made it seem like the taxman would be out to get you and I just wanted to clarify things.

* On a side note, I'm not saying that it is a good time to invest or that it's not. I just wanted to give everyone information and also state that everyone's situation is different. *

[1.8tradoman]

"As for "timing the market" I'm not telling everyone to buy and hold till the market is right, I'm basically replying to your comment that implied that the market would be on a downturn for 25 years"

I was not implying that there will be a 25 year downturn. What I was trying to get at was that your 25 year old condo could become a depreciating asset. Check out MLS®: V697779. OUCH! ($45,000 assessment to be paid by the buyer). Just one possible outcome.

San Diego, San Franciso, Las Vegas, Miami, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg etc... 20% price declines with no end in sight. The question I pose to Realtor is Why (how) is Vancouver immune (different)? And please don't tell me its the 2 week party we are hosting in 2010.

[Realtor]

Actually every house or condo is a depreciating asset. Only the Land appreciates. The longer you own a house or condo, the older it gets, while land usually just becomes more scarce, and that's the main factor why real estate appreciates. (Unless of course there is a demand for certain old houses, such as character homes) As for V697779, it's a low-rise wood frame condo built in the 80's and 90's. Concrete buildings last longer, and there are certain standards in play since 2000. This does not mean that there won't be any more leaky condos, it just means that standards are a bit better now and there should be less. (Vancouver is comparable to a rain-forest and our climate takes a toll on structures.)

As for the states, I don't know enough about there market, but i'm guessing that their woes are due to many things, such as the "loose" lending practices that were occuring down there, the astronomical money they spend fighting wars, etc. etc. etc.

As for Canada, well Calgary and Edmonton rely a lot on the U.S. economy and if the U.S. isn't doing well, it has an affect on them. I don't know much about Winnipeg.

I never said that Vancouver is immune. In my above posts I stated that we should have slight increases in the near future, but around 2011 or 2012 it will probably remain level or drop slightly. I also stated reasons for both sides of the coin as to why people think the market will increase or decrease.

[justsomeguy604]

Talk about a bunch of total noobs.

There is plenty to read up for those interested in buying a condo.

As it stands currently, it is far cheaper to rent than buy and if the renter saves the difference between mortgage and rent costs. The renter will come out far ahead of the owner.

For those who don't believe prices can't fall, ask your parents about 1981/1982. If you need proof that history repeats itself, look south of the border.

Sure we don't have the same level of sub-prime exposure that the US had but we have a huge oversupply of condos especially in Vancouver.

Price fundamentals don't match ownership costs to rent ratios and affordability per earning power in Vancouver ranks in the top 5 worst world wide.

Crash? Who knows, but we've broken away from the fundamentals for over 4 years now, a pullback is going to happen, the longer the prices run away from reality, the harder the snap back.

I rent in Coal Harbour for about $2400 a month. This is my total monthly cost (includes all utilities).

So, if I wanted to buy right now, I would have to pay about $900k for the same unit.
If I were to take a 30 mortgage for the whole amount at 4.85% My monthly payments would be around $4700 a month plus utilities $50 a month strata $550 a month and property tax (average is about $300 a month) for a total monthly ownership cost of $5600 per month.

The $4700 of the mortgage is comprised of interest and principle. In the first 5 years, the owner has paid over $210,000 in interest while only contributing $75,000 to equity.

The owner has thrown away $210,000 in interest, $18,000 in tax and $33,000 in strata for a total of $261,000 in money thrown away. The same renter would have only spent
$144,000.

If the renter saved the difference between the mortgage $4700 and the rent of $2400, in 5 years that's savings of $138,000 in 5 years. If you rather, the renter is over $250,000 better off than the owner after 5 years.

Now, of course, there is capital appreciation and during this runup, yes, the owner would have realized an equity growth but buying now with the expectation of double digit appreciation is exactly what happened during the end of the dot com boom. People were buying in at the peak only to be burned while the smart people were leaving the market.

What I'm saying is, that if prices remain flat or only increase slightly, you're better off as a renter.

If you're going to bitch about the fact the mortgage is for the full amount, you'd make more money with a $900k GIC than you would in rent. It is this rent to price ratio that is out of wack and actually proves prices in Vancouver are far too high.

Like it or not, the numbers don't lie. Just like the stock market has bubbles, so does real estate. I actually feel really sorry for people who have recently purchased out of panic and fear.

An investor will tell you emotion is the worst thing to use when buying ANY investment. It makes people react in the opposite way that they should.

While nobody can predict the future. I'm glad I sold both my townhome and condo in Yaletown. I could have milked another year or maybe 2 for profits but smart people know market timing is tricky and you're better off to get out early than be caught too late.

[1.8tradoman]

VAN sun newspaper prints avg. march and april GVRD SFH prices guess what the price difference is? Negative 4%. Think condos are likely to hold up because of granite countertops?

[1.8tradoman]

i apologize for the late edit... i try to not to edit unless its necessary but i wanted to double check the numbers.

[Realtor]

Originally Posted by Realtor

* On a side note, I'm not saying that it is a good time to invest or that it's not. I just wanted to give everyone information and also state that everyone's situation is different. *

justsomeguy604 - you make very good points, but like I stated previously, everyone's situation is different and a person must factor in a lot of different things before investing.

Prices can defininitely fall - not only in 81-82, but in 90, 96, etc.

A lot of condo's are being built, and there may be an oversupply in certain areas, but prime areas will hold their value better (such as downtown, but i'm not saying it's immune.)

Vancouver is currently one of the most unaffordable cities in the world, but it's also one of the most desired places to be.

As for buying the condo you currently live in, I don't have enough information on your unit, but if your numbers are correct, it may not be a good time for you to buy, a different person buying a different property may be able to make money. Once again, it depends on a lot of different factors but it's not the same for everyone.


1.8tradoman, I'm not sure what article you are talking about, but here is an article from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver:

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,218 in April 2008, a decline of five per cent from the 3,387 sales recorded in April 2007, and a 3.8 per cent drop from the 3,345 sales in April 2006.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties increased 25.6 per cent to 7,010 in April 2008 compared to April 2007, when 5,580 new units were listed.

“Residential sales continue to be strong, but there is a lot more choice on the market today. This is good news for a market that has been defined by record-breaking activity for most of this decade,” said REBGV president, Dave Watt.

“Despite this seeming re-balance between sales and listings, it took, on average, six fewer days to sell a home in Greater Vancouver compared to the previous year, with a days on market average of 33 in April this year,” said Watt.

Sales of detached properties declined 7.8 per cent to 1,293 from the 1,403 detached sales recorded during the same period in 2007. The benchmark price, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, for detached properties rose 11 per cent from April 2007 to $771,321.

Sales of apartment properties in April 2008 declined 2.4 per cent to 1,317, compared to 1,350 sales in April 2007. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 9.6 per cent from April 2007 to $389,070.

Attached property sales in April 2008 are down 4.1 per cent to 608, compared with the 634 sales in April 2007. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 10.5 per cent between April
2007 and 2008 to $477,900.


What this article tells me is that this year more units are available and less units have sold since last year, but properties are still selling, and the benchmark price has increased.

[johny]

justsomeguy604 you bring up good points for short term money saving but what about long term. people need a place to live for their entire life, not just the next five.

basicly to live you have 3 options. rent for life. buy now. or rent for a while then buy.

are you going to rent untill the day you die? renting for the next 70 years will cost you more then buying today and paying for 30. ontop of that. if you rent and die your kids get nothing vrs getting millions.

rent now and buy later? if you buy in 5 years from now you'll still going to pay all interest you say the buyer will pay. all you're doing is prolonging it, you're not gaining or saving it. but you've now you've lost the $144k it cost you to rent the first 5 years. if prices stay the same. the renter loses not the buyer...

unless you plan to die at age 50 so you can stop paying rent.

[1.8tradoman]

Originally Posted by johny

justsomeguy604 you bring up good points for short term money saving but what about long term. people need a place to live for their entire life, not just the next five.

basicly to live you have 3 options. rent for life. buy now. or rent for a while then buy.

are you going to rent untill the day you die? renting for the next 70 years will cost you more then buying today and paying for 30. ontop of that. if you rent and die your kids get nothing vrs getting millions.

rent now and buy later? if you buy in 5 years from now you'll still going to pay all interest you say the buyer will pay. all you're doing is prolonging it, you're not gaining or saving it. but you've now you've lost the $144k it cost you to rent the first 5 years. if prices stay the same. the renter loses not the buyer...

unless you plan to die at age 50 so you can stop paying rent.

wow... never heard of opportunity cost? look it up. Also have you actually looked at an amortization chart? Guess what? At the end of 25 years on your 40 year mortgage, you still owe more than 50% of the original principal (i.e. you own half a house). If your looking for a number to use try the Benchmark Price that Realtor quoted ie. $771,321. And the kicker? you've paid over million dollars in interest after your mortgage is finished. Let's start there. After that we can talk about the rest of your post.

[1.8tradoman]

"What this article tells me is that this year more units are available and less units have sold since last year, but properties are still selling, and the benchmark price has increased."

Could you tell me how the REGBV calculates bench mark price?
Why didn't they tell you that the AVERAGE PRICE fell 4%?
Why didn't they tell you that inventory has hit over 16,000 units?

Oh by the way here's the rest of the REGBV stat package...

"The Real Estate industry is a key economic driver in British Columbia. In 2007, 38,050 homes changed hands in the Board's area generating $1.065 billion in spin-offs. Total dollar volume of residential sales set a new record at $22.25 billion and total dollar volume of all sales set a record at $22.77 billion. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is an association representing more than 9,500 REALTORS®. The Real Estate Board provides a variety of membership services, including the Multiple Listing Service®. For more information on real estate, statistics, and buying or selling a home, contact a local REALTOR® or visit www.realtylink.org."

hmm... bias anyone?

PS: Realtor, I'm serious about the bench mark price calculation...