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Some factors in valuation include: - Where the ore is situated -> if it's mostly at the surface vs a vein that goes down, then it'll be easier to mine and you can do it at lower grades. That affects the strip ratio (ratio of waste rock to ore that you have to process) - The layout of the mine - side of a mountain is way harder than say.. flat hole in the ground - Size of the mine - bigger mines can run more shovels and process more trucks in so you have less of a bottleneck - Type of ore - is it oxide or sulphide? - You also want to look at the certainty of the reserves. Proven + Probable (reserves) vs measured + indicated (resources) vs inferred (from most likely to least likely). In canada, one thing you can read is the 43-101s that miners file. It's a good way to get a feel for a mine plan and the costs associated with getting the stuff out of the ground. For comparable, you can compare EV multiples (market cap + debt - cash.. yes I know the formula is longer than that, but most mining companies only really have that). eg.. EV/Reserves (oz) or EV/reserves + resources or EV/reserves + resources + inferred. For companies that are producing, you can look at EV/annual production (oz) Anyways, going back to your original question, I'm looking at a comps table right now that has this piece of shit company on it, Atna resources that has been mining ore at an average grade of 0.59g/t. Their $/oz cost is $1036 which is RETARDED... and that's why they have a $50mm market cap. |
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On some sites I can see the price, but it doesn't have the exercise price. |
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Google ''canadianwarrants'' But sometimes its' also good to just google, rodinia warrants exercise price, for example. |
What are people's thoughts on the price of Natural Gas? Commodities prices have been improving, but natural gas didn't recover nearly enough IMO. The prices at the moment appear to be rock bottom... |
Well how would you "invest" in NG? buy ETF? leveraged ETF? NG company? Personally I'm not going to touch NG. I don't know enough about that industry and there are better buys out there for me. |
Check out GAS.TO - diversified, as good as it gets when it comes to investing into natural gas. You could also pick big players. With cold winter coming, futures on GAS should increase in price. Over the next year, it may be a great buy. I've read a number of reports and just wanted to check if anyone out here was thinking the same (or differently). |
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Also there is a lot in inventory. You can check it out: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/ Every Thursday there's a report on NG. |
Excessive supply and filled up reserve tanks have been the reason for the price drop. But here is how I was seeing this: 1. Natural Gas has multiple applications and has been considered a substitute to gasoline for vehicles. If the price for oil were to go up by a lot, there is a chance the price of NG will do the same. 2. With the decrease to the all time low prices (lowest in 7 years?) some smaller Co's have gone out of business. Many put their production on hold as reserve tanks filled up. Why did this happen? Because last winter wasn't as cold (I am talking AB market primarily, Canada). This winter is predicted to be colder, much colder. 3. The world wide financial crisis hit all natural resources pretty hard, maybe with the economy recovering (slow process) there will also be an upward trend for NG. And lastly, it is a "greener" product and we may see a spike in demand as it can be used for new purposes. You are right, however, at the moment it doesn't seem to be a "sure thing" but good buys rarely look great until it is too late. Thanks for the discussion. |
Just saw this on HSM...don't really know what exactly he's talking about but he has a pretty good reputation Quote:
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Most NG plays are in the shales reserves. Check out Encana, Chesapeake, Devon. I heard some that US is considering using NG on vehicles or more importantly substituting it in the coal burning power plants. Not 100% sure on this but maybe you guys have more info. |
Same thoughts about Natural Gas in North American being saturated. There is just too much supply, compounded with more reserves found within North America. Off the top of my mind, we have St.Lawrence Lowlands/Utica Area (Quebec), Shale in BC, Shale near New York Area, Shale in California, Shale in Texas, etc. I just don't see Natural gas prices making any significant moves. I would choose oil over natural gas in a flash; however, if you really really do believe it'll be a brutally cold season for North America and for sure, we could see a pop in NatGas which would also give rise to all natural gas stocks. And to play Natural Gas, I would rather pick a big player and/or spec (Canadian Junior) gas plays (Reason: If Gas goes up, crazy investor phase buy what's hot, it could give rise to >50% gains ) |
I think it also depends on which company you buy into. Not all company supply natural gas to every country mainly because their are so much in reserve. For example, HNU.TO are mainly dealing with companies in Mexico. People who buy into HNU are always watching out for hurricane season and hope the wind would move inland. |
I hate ETF's, too volatile. A large cap Natural gas company would be a far better choice. |
maybe a non-leveraged ETF would be better...but you don't reap the same benefits if NG price increases over consecutive days ETFs are for short term speculation...i wouldn't hold it for over a week i have a friend with no experience in trading/investing. his friend suggested HNU. he's been holding it for 4 months and has lost 8k out of 20k. AND he still thinks he can make his money back. SilverSER, how much are you looking to make? And how long do you want to wait? i've been swing trading and I've been okay. This guy helped me make some money on 2 trades..the only downside is that he only covers American stocks http://www.youtube.com/user/DayTraderRockStar#p/u/2/WRAWkbF6tL8 |
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Thank you, this is good info. We will have to wait and see if I make any money in this. :). Posted via RS Mobile |
I'm guessing the news on Potash One helped to boost other junior potash companies "Potash One suitor offers $4.50 a share" It's nice if you're holding EPO, WPX |
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You think it'll break 2.50 or 2.60 anytime soon? Or should I just take some profit and get out? I got them at 2.05 |
hmmm you mean 25 or 26 CENTS? I think I will just hold.. Think of the risk/reward..IMO it is more likely than not that SP will increase |
u mean 0.25 or 0.26 and u got at 0.205?? i agree with waddy dont forget guistra take a while to get going cuz he has so many companies going at one time be patient |
ooops yeah that's what I meant.LOL I should drink more free Mcdicks coffee. |
Oh yes....last week you could have gotten free hashbrowns with your breakfast sandwich I highly recommend AVR..You can get in at 1.01 or 1.02 today... Their quarterly results are coming out on Wednesday and I bet they're gonna be good.. |
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