STOCK MARKET Thread

[DaFonz]

Originally Posted by waddy41

`Meritus drills 16 m of 7.73 g/t gold at Gutain Davaa`
What would be considered good?
Is there a site where I can learn about the basics of the mining industry?

Speaking in general terms, it really depends on the layout of the mine, the type of ore and how cheaply the company is able to process the ore for.

Some factors in valuation include:
- Where the ore is situated -> if it's mostly at the surface vs a vein that goes down, then it'll be easier to mine and you can do it at lower grades. That affects the strip ratio (ratio of waste rock to ore that you have to process)
- The layout of the mine - side of a mountain is way harder than say.. flat hole in the ground
- Size of the mine - bigger mines can run more shovels and process more trucks in so you have less of a bottleneck
- Type of ore - is it oxide or sulphide?

- You also want to look at the certainty of the reserves.
Proven + Probable (reserves) vs measured + indicated (resources) vs inferred (from most likely to least likely).

In canada, one thing you can read is the 43-101s that miners file. It's a good way to get a feel for a mine plan and the costs associated with getting the stuff out of the ground.

For comparable, you can compare EV multiples (market cap + debt - cash.. yes I know the formula is longer than that, but most mining companies only really have that).

eg.. EV/Reserves (oz) or EV/reserves + resources or EV/reserves + resources + inferred.

For companies that are producing, you can look at EV/annual production (oz)

Anyways, going back to your original question, I'm looking at a comps table right now that has this piece of shit company on it, Atna resources that has been mining ore at an average grade of 0.59g/t. Their $/oz cost is $1036 which is RETARDED... and that's why they have a $50mm market cap.

[waddy41]

Originally Posted by subordinate

Roz-v - I think I had mentioned before, I sold all my warrants.

Hey, which site do you use to get quotes on warrants?
On some sites I can see the price, but it doesn't have the exercise price.

[gdoh]

ROZ.WT


something to read

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/6943780.cms

[subordinate]

Google ''canadianwarrants''

But sometimes its' also good to just google, rodinia warrants exercise price, for example.

[F30]

What are people's thoughts on the price of Natural Gas?

Commodities prices have been improving, but natural gas didn't recover nearly enough IMO. The prices at the moment appear to be rock bottom...

[waddy41]

Well how would you "invest" in NG?
buy ETF? leveraged ETF? NG company?

Personally I'm not going to touch NG. I don't know enough about that industry and there are better buys out there for me.

[F30]

Check out GAS.TO - diversified, as good as it gets when it comes to investing into natural gas. You could also pick big players.

With cold winter coming, futures on GAS should increase in price. Over the next year, it may be a great buy.

I've read a number of reports and just wanted to check if anyone out here was thinking the same (or differently).

[mr_chin]

Originally Posted by SilverSER

Check out GAS.TO - diversified, as good as it gets when it comes to investing into natural gas. You could also pick big players.

With cold winter coming, futures on GAS should increase in price. Over the next year, it may be a great buy.

I've read a number of reports and just wanted to check if anyone out here was thinking the same (or differently).

I personally wouldn't get into natural gas. I heard they are easy to get and are not that hard to find and that only about half the world uses them, the majority of them coming from Mexico and the caribbeans. The demand for them are not very high. Unless their is some sort of disaster, like hurricane and flooding, you won't see the price of natural gas going up very high.

[waddy41]

Also there is a lot in inventory.
You can check it out: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
Every Thursday there's a report on NG.

[F30]

Excessive supply and filled up reserve tanks have been the reason for the price drop. But here is how I was seeing this:
1. Natural Gas has multiple applications and has been considered a substitute to gasoline for vehicles. If the price for oil were to go up by a lot, there is a chance the price of NG will do the same.
2. With the decrease to the all time low prices (lowest in 7 years?) some smaller Co's have gone out of business. Many put their production on hold as reserve tanks filled up. Why did this happen? Because last winter wasn't as cold (I am talking AB market primarily, Canada). This winter is predicted to be colder, much colder.
3. The world wide financial crisis hit all natural resources pretty hard, maybe with the economy recovering (slow process) there will also be an upward trend for NG.

And lastly, it is a "greener" product and we may see a spike in demand as it can be used for new purposes.

You are right, however, at the moment it doesn't seem to be a "sure thing" but good buys rarely look great until it is too late.

Thanks for the discussion.

[waddy41]

Just saw this on HSM...don't really know what exactly he's talking about but he has a pretty good reputation

Originally Posted by IchibomB

Looking for a short here in Natural gas on Monday. Price is under the 2 month (thin red) and 8 month (thick yellow) 50% retracements as well as the traditional 52 day 50% support from the previous 1 month cycle.

Any bullish movement will most likely be weak for now. However, watch for price to consolidate some and for the bulls to regain their strength in December.

[highfive]

Originally Posted by SilverSER

Excessive supply and filled up reserve tanks have been the reason for the price drop. But here is how I was seeing this:
1. Natural Gas has multiple applications and has been considered a substitute to gasoline for vehicles. If the price for oil were to go up by a lot, there is a chance the price of NG will do the same.
2. With the decrease to the all time low prices (lowest in 7 years?) some smaller Co's have gone out of business. Many put their production on hold as reserve tanks filled up. Why did this happen? Because last winter wasn't as cold (I am talking AB market primarily, Canada). This winter is predicted to be colder, much colder.
3. The world wide financial crisis hit all natural resources pretty hard, maybe with the economy recovering (slow process) there will also be an upward trend for NG.

And lastly, it is a "greener" product and we may see a spike in demand as it can be used for new purposes.

You are right, however, at the moment it doesn't seem to be a "sure thing" but good buys rarely look great until it is too late.

Thanks for the discussion.

I agree. Keep in mind that NG pricing is very regional. Most NG are transported through pipelines. So NG that are shipped to say S. Korea are not the price we pay here in North America.

Most NG plays are in the shales reserves. Check out Encana, Chesapeake, Devon.

I heard some that US is considering using NG on vehicles or more importantly substituting it in the coal burning power plants. Not 100% sure on this but maybe you guys have more info.

[subordinate]

Same thoughts about Natural Gas in North American being saturated. There is just too much supply, compounded with more reserves found within North America.

Off the top of my mind, we have St.Lawrence Lowlands/Utica Area (Quebec), Shale in BC, Shale near New York Area, Shale in California, Shale in Texas, etc.

I just don't see Natural gas prices making any significant moves.

I would choose oil over natural gas in a flash; however, if you really really do believe it'll be a brutally cold season for North America and for sure, we could see a pop in NatGas which would also give rise to all natural gas stocks.

And to play Natural Gas, I would rather pick a big player and/or spec (Canadian Junior) gas plays (Reason: If Gas goes up, crazy investor phase buy what's hot, it could give rise to >50% gains )

[mr_chin]

I think it also depends on which company you buy into. Not all company supply natural gas to every country mainly because their are so much in reserve.

For example, HNU.TO are mainly dealing with companies in Mexico. People who buy into HNU are always watching out for hurricane season and hope the wind would move inland.

[subordinate]

I hate ETF's, too volatile. A large cap Natural gas company would be a far better choice.

[waddy41]

maybe a non-leveraged ETF would be better...but you don't reap the same benefits if NG price increases over consecutive days
ETFs are for short term speculation...i wouldn't hold it for over a week
i have a friend with no experience in trading/investing. his friend suggested HNU. he's been holding it for 4 months and has lost 8k out of 20k. AND he still thinks he can make his money back.
SilverSER, how much are you looking to make? And how long do you want to wait? i've been swing trading and I've been okay. This guy helped me make some money on 2 trades..the only downside is that he only covers American stocks

http://www.youtube.com/user/DayTraderRockStar#p/u/2/WRAWkbF6tL8

[waddy41]

More regarding NG

Originally Posted by mouserman

Was reading a good commentary on nat gas. While the prices for ng in north america at currently around 4$ US , the rest of the world is paying substantially higher prices.
From dailywealth.com
If you’re interested in safely making money in commodities over the coming decade, I have two important numbers for you…
The first is the price of natural gas in the U.S. – which is less than $4 per million British thermal units (mBtu).
The second is the price of natural gas in Asia, where people will pay $10 per mBtu for natural gas they import from overseas.
This is a disparity someone can make a lot of money on. The only reason it exists at all is because the natural gas market is still mainly a local market. It is not as easy to ship natural gas into a country as it is to ship oil. You have to supercool it so it liquefies. Then you can put it on a tanker and ship it to a terminal where your buyer can regasify it. This is the LNG trade.
There are problems. U.S. energy companies, before the shale gas boom changed everything, thought the U.S. would need to import natural gas. So the U.S. has about 10 LNG import terminals and two more in the works. Now, with a natural gas glut in the U.S., these terminals are pretty much useless.
Owners of these terminals want to refit the terminals to turn them into export terminals, where the gas is liquefied and shipped out. They are now petitioning the U.S. government for export licenses.
As the Financial Times reported, “The U.S. could soon be competing with Russia and the Middle East to supply the world with natural gas, a shift in production that would reshape energy markets over the next decade.” Even if the U.S. exported just 10% of its natural gas, it would become the largest exporter of LNG in the world. Few countries can match the U.S. in natural gas resources or low costs

[F30]

Thank you, this is good info. We will have to wait and see if I make any money in this. .
Posted via RS Mobile

[waddy41]

I'm guessing the news on Potash One helped to boost other junior potash companies
"Potash One suitor offers $4.50 a share"

It's nice if you're holding EPO, WPX

[joquio]

Originally Posted by waddy41

I'm guessing the news on Potash One helped to boost other junior potash companies
"Potash One suitor offers $4.50 a share"

It's nice if you're holding EPO, WPX

I am holding some EPO shares.
You think it'll break 2.50 or 2.60 anytime soon?
Or should I just take some profit and get out?
I got them at 2.05

[waddy41]

hmmm you mean 25 or 26 CENTS?
I think I will just hold..
Think of the risk/reward..IMO it is more likely than not that SP will increase

[gdoh]

u mean 0.25 or 0.26 and u got at 0.205??

i agree with waddy dont forget guistra take a while to get going cuz he has so many companies going at one time be patient

[joquio]

ooops yeah that's what I meant.LOL
I should drink more free Mcdicks coffee.

[waddy41]

Oh yes....last week you could have gotten free hashbrowns with your breakfast sandwich

I highly recommend AVR..You can get in at 1.01 or 1.02 today...
Their quarterly results are coming out on Wednesday and I bet they're gonna be good..

[gdoh]

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNe...s20101119.html