STOCK MARKET Thread

[gdoh]

when the market goes down that is when i think is the best time to load up, as long as the fundamentals are still there for whatever stocks you choose

the fed will most likely raise the limit again, but for now the let it get closer and closer to the date so it puts fear into people and drive the market down then people like goldman sacs come and buy in at ridiculous prices

dont forget we are alson in the summer doldrums

[strykn]

RIM getting shit on

[Jermyzy]

Originally Posted by DaFonz

Im also considering writing long term puts for:

WMT @ $45
GS @ $50
AAPL @ $200

You think AAPL is going to drop that much? Crap, I have AAPL in my portfolio

[Hehe]

I'm not sure putting AAPL for 200... but its current price is surely inflated. I'd put its target price depending on iPhone5. If it's good, $400~450 isn't very far with the marketing going around. If it's bad, $250.

From what I can tell in iOS5 and iCloud, I think AAPL is running out of product ideas. I'd say wait until iPhone5 announcement. If it's still boring or not really exciting, I'd put a long term put on AAPL too.

The way to think of is that AAPL is an one trick pony. If App Store starts to lose momentum, it's time to get out of it. Back in RIMM's dominant days, ppl think RIMM as godlike, then other Smartphone OSes started showing up and RIMM lost its edge.

AAPL could very well be the next RIMM (on the mobile section at least) with the fierce competition and countless innovations week after week from manufacturers using Android like LG, Samsung, HTC... etc, while iPhone updates once a year.

[DaFonz]

I dont think you guys are quite understanding what writing a put means.

Writing a put means SELLING a put and collecting the premium. It's the exact same payoff as writing a covered call except your margin requirements are lower.

I'm not saying AAPL is going to drop to $200, but if it does, then I'll gladly pick it up. If not, well, I get a premium for my time.

shawnly1000: no i'm stupid. I was shorting it and got out too early. Pissed off because I WAS shorting zstn, deer, hrbn and got out of all of them way too early. fml.

[Carl Johnson]

Steve Jobs and Tim Cook knows what's going on and they get the shit done. Unlike the dumb RIMM jobs sitting at the top all falling over each other.

[shawnly1000]

DaFonz, I'm guessing/assuming you're gonna write the naked puts for AAPL?

[highfive]

Why would people even think about shorting aapl? Even right now it's a pretty good level to buy. They have 50 billion in cash. That's like 50 bucks per share already.

Ppl are raving about their iphones and apps stores etc... but a lot of ppl overlook their competitiveness in laptops and computers. Even their ipods are still doing relatively well. IMO, i think their ipads are going to do even better.

Plus they have bought out over 50% of worlds supplys of lcd screens. So anyone out there trying to build tablets to compete against them will have trouble in securing enough materials to make your product.

[4444]

some of you guys are WAY overreacting

look at the fundamentals, we are still growing, china will have huge demand for a LONG time, maybe not as hot as over hte last 2 years, but still... this go faster, slower, faster, slower - but right now, we're always going, generally, up

and AAPL is a winner, anyone would be a fool to bet against them, their forward P/E after taking out cash is very attractive when you consider their continued growth

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by 4444

some of you guys are WAY overreacting

look at the fundamentals, we are still growing, china will have huge demand for a LONG time, maybe not as hot as over hte last 2 years, but still... this go faster, slower, faster, slower - but right now, we're always going, generally, up

and AAPL is a winner, anyone would be a fool to bet against them, their forward P/E after taking out cash is very attractive when you consider their continued growth

I don't think the comments I made above was to bet against AAPL. The thing is, don't let the marketing hoopla going on with AAPL confuse the fundamental of investment, looking forward.

What AAPL had until now and having now is irrelevant. 5 years ago, when RIMM was around 140, you could replace the word AAPL with RIMM and many articles with similar perspective would pop up.

I'm just saying the the new iCloud/iOS5 wasn't impressed. It didn't offer much beyond what we can see from competitors and even less in term of revenue creation. How can AAPL retain its momentum is crucial to its stock price. Assuming current price reflects directly on the current value of AAPL, the popularity of iPhone justify AAPL's price.

If competitors start to pull ahead of iPhones, and the market starting to shift, it would be 2x more difficult for AAPL to make a comeback, look where RIMM is now. AAPL has been innovative the last 5 years with iPhones and iPads... will they be able to create new product to push AAPL's price forward? From current info, it's hard to tell. But if iPhone5 is on par with competition at best, I would say shorting on AAPL might not be a bad idea.

[suzuka84]

guys, look at companies with high quality china assets. The environment is unchanged but investors are weary after the Sino-Forest association. I bought $10k worth of Silvercorp yesterday at $8/share.

[blkgsr]

Originally Posted by gdoh

when the market goes down that is when i think is the best time to load up, as long as the fundamentals are still there for whatever stocks you choose

the fed will most likely raise the limit again, but for now the let it get closer and closer to the date so it puts fear into people and drive the market down then people like goldman sacs come and buy in at ridiculous prices

dont forget we are alson in the summer doldrums

my comment was more along the lines of sell what i have (at profit) and then wait and buy back in later

although now i've missed out on about 10-25% profits already by not selling last week etc

[highfive]

Originally Posted by Hehe

I don't think the comments I made above was to bet against AAPL. The thing is, don't let the marketing hoopla going on with AAPL confuse the fundamental of investment, looking forward.

What AAPL had until now and having now is irrelevant. 5 years ago, when RIMM was around 140, you could replace the word AAPL with RIMM and many articles with similar perspective would pop up.

I'm just saying the the new iCloud/iOS5 wasn't impressed. It didn't offer much beyond what we can see from competitors and even less in term of revenue creation. How can AAPL retain its momentum is crucial to its stock price. Assuming current price reflects directly on the current value of AAPL, the popularity of iPhone justify AAPL's price.

If competitors start to pull ahead of iPhones, and the market starting to shift, it would be 2x more difficult for AAPL to make a comeback, look where RIMM is now. AAPL has been innovative the last 5 years with iPhones and iPads... will they be able to create new product to push AAPL's price forward? From current info, it's hard to tell. But if iPhone5 is on par with competition at best, I would say shorting on AAPL might not be a bad idea.

The failure of RIMM was they weren't able to keep up in their software. AAPL was so successful in their iphones is the ios software. Their closest competition right now is Google Android. But the problem for the Android is there are too many products out their. Nobody can tell which one is better plus it's installed of manufacturers garbage apps. AAPL is able to create hardware, software, and supporting apps for their products. Right now, I don't see any company that can compete against AAPL in providing this type of environment. Google might be able to but they will fail until they control their hardware production as well.

Like I said before, the earning power of AAPL is not just iphones but the solid business of their computers, laptops, and ipods. They have growing businesses in their Apps store and ipads.

Even aside from all this, AAPL also has very loyal customers. They are willing to upgrade and adapt to AAPL new products.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by highfive

The failure of RIMM was they weren't able to keep up in their software.

Exactly. As I was mentioning, I didn't see much new interesting stuff in iOS5. The major thing here was iCloud. Nevertheless, cloud computing, as AAPL is doing, isn't much different to other products. As a matter of fact, perhaps even worse (Dropbox for pure files as it sync across all platforms, Spotify for music). Furthermore, the whole idea of offering iCloud is to keep the momentum of iPhone/iPad sales. Will it be enough to continue pushing them flying off the shelves remains to be seen. Thus my suggestion of checking out if iPhone5 brings anything interesting. If not, AAPL might be going down (not bankrupting... just not worth as much)

Even aside from all this, AAPL also has very loyal customers. They are willing to upgrade and adapt to AAPL new products.

This was the problem AAPL had when Jobs left. They were announcing products that sounded/looked good for fans, but not really sticking to the rest of the PC industry. Thus Mac's sale didn't explode exponentially like PC did. Remember, smartphones are a commodity now, they are the next PC. If AAPL goes down the same path it did back with PCs, it could potentially repeat the history. Only appealing to fans while the rest of the market were moving ahead much faster.

[shawnly1000]

CUU...

[highfive]

Originally Posted by Hehe

Exactly. As I was mentioning, I didn't see much new interesting stuff in iOS5. The major thing here was iCloud. Nevertheless, cloud computing, as AAPL is doing, isn't much different to other products. As a matter of fact, perhaps even worse (Dropbox for pure files as it sync across all platforms, Spotify for music). Furthermore, the whole idea of offering iCloud is to keep the momentum of iPhone/iPad sales. Will it be enough to continue pushing them flying off the shelves remains to be seen. Thus my suggestion of checking out if iPhone5 brings anything interesting. If not, AAPL might be going down (not bankrupting... just not worth as much)



This was the problem AAPL had when Jobs left. They were announcing products that sounded/looked good for fans, but not really sticking to the rest of the PC industry. Thus Mac's sale didn't explode exponentially like PC did. Remember, smartphones are a commodity now, they are the next PC. If AAPL goes down the same path it did back with PCs, it could potentially repeat the history. Only appealing to fans while the rest of the market were moving ahead much faster.

I do agree that Apple is priced to perfection, any slips would drop the stock. But last time I checked, it's trading at 13 or 15x forward earnings? It's a damn low number IMO for a growth company like this. Keep this in mind, the iphones/ipads are entering into the corporate and government market. Before it was all consumers, now I notice more and more corporate companies are willing to use iphones over the say blackberries. I should stop talking about Apple because I feel like I'm becoming an Apple fanboy. hahahaa

Shit..hate the drop but picked up some CUU at 1.88 though.

That silvercorp pick up was pretty good last week.

[blkgsr]

Originally Posted by shawnly1000

CUU...

i know

[shawnly1000]

Paulson just dumped all his Sino-Forest holdings, apparently a loss of 750+ million

[Carl Johnson]

Shit just got real for all TRE bagholders. Another win for Muddy Waters.

[DaFonz]

Originally Posted by classified

bought some tre at 3.96 today hope i can pull some profits tomorrow

I really hope you got the fuck out. Globe and mail in on this now too.

Timbeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[!LittleDragon]

I like how airline stocks like JBLU and DAL are trading in a nice channel right now

[RevRav]

Originally Posted by DaFonz

I really hope you got the fuck out. Globe and mail in on this now too.

Timbeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

$3.32 Should I still hold for a little while...or dump it tomorrow morning

[gdoh]

Originally Posted by blkgsr

my comment was more along the lines of sell what i have (at profit) and then wait and buy back in later

although now i've missed out on about 10-25% profits already by not selling last week etc

it doesnt hurt to sell your original investment and then the rest you have in there is pure profit

[shawnly1000]

Originally Posted by RevRav

$3.32 Should I still hold for a little while...or dump it tomorrow morning

Nothing to hold it up anymore IMO, the Paulson news is gonna make it drop more tmw I believe

[rb]

AAA took a beating today - forgot that my sell order expired and took on pretty huge losses today. ****