STOCK MARKET Thread

[4444]

i will also put this out there, i don't think we're going into another recession, worldwide. now, this isn't black or white at all, these are tough times we're in, and tough times ahead, BUT, europe will support continued bail outs, the US will likely continue to pump more money into the economy, i think the jobs bill is a good thing to kick start some job creation, but what we REALLY need in the US is some kind of a tax holiday or at least a decreased rate for repatriation of offshore funds by US co's - this will bring billions back into the US economy, as long as whatever bill is passed provides some guidelines for some of this money to be reinvested, perhaps instead of a 35% tax on the funds, tax at 5%, with 30% required to be invested by the company within 2 years.

now, granted there would be the typical BS of ppl beating the system, but if we (teh US) can collect 5% as taxes, and even if we get a realized 10% mandated investment of these funds into the economy, the remaining 85% of these funds will still be either invested, used to pay out dividends (so money in teh hands of shareholders - a bad thing?), used to buy back stock (see my last parentheses)

if we don't do this, money will stay out of the US indefinitely. trust me on this, i used to work setting up structures to keep money out of the hands of high taxing countries' net

commodities were too hot, i'll admit that, but I believe they are currently oversold as people appear to be pricing in a recession (as all the idiots on CNBC, etc. are crying recession) - when everyone starts crying recession, i'll start thinking the opposite.

these are merely my thoughts, but if you can take some short term paper losses, now would be a great time to start a longer term portfolio filled with market/industry/sector leaders... for a short term trade? can't really help you on that one, too much risk for me on the short term trades, as if you haven't done sufficient research on your companies and your 'guess'/ gut feeling movement doesn't happen, you're running the risk of taking a big loss or holding a stock you either don't believe in / know little about, fundamentally

if anyone disagrees with the above, i'd love to hear why (why you believe a recession is coming, etc)

[Jermyzy]

Originally Posted by 4444

i will also put this out there, i don't think we're going into another recession, worldwide. now, this isn't black or white at all, these are tough times we're in, and tough times ahead, BUT, europe will support continued bail outs...

I'm no financial guru and I don't have a crystal ball, but IMHO, another recession is a very strong possibility. Dexia just required a government bailout. If a couple more banks follow the same path, I think we could be in trouble again. Can the euro zone really afford to keep bailing out countries ( if Italy and Spain need bailout, they are much bigger than Greece) AND can the countries afford to bailout the banks if they fail?

But like you, apart from my recent POT buy (which is down 10-15%, but I think is still a good long-term hold), most of my stocks are long-term hold dividend paying stocks. So this recession doesn't affect me too much. However, I do like coming into this thread to see other's opinions and to see if I can learn anything as well.

[4444]

POT and Dupont, 2 great long term ag plays. Lets add Deere to that too - recession or not, 7 billion ppl gotta eat!

and you're right about it being a high risk time... shit could all of a sudden hit the fan, but Europe keeps on bailing itself out - the politicians, i believe, have the ability to prevent another recession, but looking at the way the US political system works (or doesn't work as the case may be) - i am concerned that they will continue to f us up

[lime56]

Originally Posted by 4444

but unless you're a restauranter, owner, developer, i just ppl should know so as to discount your personally expressed 'expertise'

WE HAVE A WINNER!

[lime56]

but seriously.... do i think a recession is coming?

defined as two quarters of negative growth
if QE wasnt in place, everyone would have been fucked
even with it in place, growth is so miminal
FED is not doing any more monetary policy and has pointed to the US to address it with fiscal policy

europe is not going to have positive GDP.. i dont see how when everyone is implementing austerity measures
China is already forecasting its exports are slowing or DOA
even though it has a positive GDP factor... it is slowing too and is reflecting the fact that world demand for its exports are slowing

like you say, companies are cash rich on its balance sheets and cutting costs by reducing payroll..
how the hell does that look like the economy is growing????
they just hoarding for a rainy day i think

but talk to the locals here, business owners, landlords etc
sentiment is not good.. .more for lease signs popping up in downtown area... avg work per week for employees are getting cut

and we're in canada where shit is good

did you hear what Paulson's hedge fund performance this last year? he went long equities/commodities and got burned bad... down 47% this year alone..
and this is the guy who bet against subprime and got it right (you know, the GS scandal)

i dont beat my chest unlike you trying to justify companies i own or trade etc
denial is the worst for justifying positions in any portfolio

just letting guys here made aware that prices should come down if you have long term perspective, so why buy now?

you say you have a diversified portfolio... give me a break...CAT CUMMINS POT commodities etc....

do this forum a favor and show what a truly diversified portfolio is
a five stock basket isnt it

[lime56]

Originally Posted by 4444

the politicians, i believe, have the ability to prevent another recession

[lime56]

and one more thing

to all the ppl posting on this thread...

please dont be intimidated by anyone

feel free to post your opinions, questions, rhetoric etc
you dont need to be a financial guru or have better education than someone else for your points to be valid or respected

there are no stupid questions or insights

(just people who are intolerant of other peoples views should be ignored at best)


if you have a 2 page essay you want to post here about the stock market, feel free to do so

if you want to post CUU FTW!!!

go ahead


have a nice day

[no_clue]

hell yeah Air Canada going on strike Thursday.
Time to make a quick play before they get legistrated back to work

[shawnly1000]

For those following the Eurozone issues:

"Merkel, Sarkozy Say Have Deal On European Banks"

UPDATE: Merkel, Sarkozy Say Have Deal On European Banks - WSJ.com

[strykn]

^saw that earlier, wish the headline came out early morning tomorrow would see a nice spike with some panicked short covering and those algos that read the headlines would go nuts ahha

[shawnly1000]

Dexia Bank to nationalized

Belgium nationalizes Dexia subsidiary for $5.4 bln - Forbes.com

[4444]

Originally Posted by lime56

but seriously.... do i think a recession is coming?

defined as two quarters of negative growth
if QE wasnt in place, everyone would have been fucked
even with it in place, growth is so miminal
FED is not doing any more monetary policy and has pointed to the US to address it with fiscal policy

europe is not going to have positive GDP.. i dont see how when everyone is implementing austerity measures
China is already forecasting its exports are slowing or DOA
even though it has a positive GDP factor... it is slowing too and is reflecting the fact that world demand for its exports are slowing

like you say, companies are cash rich on its balance sheets and cutting costs by reducing payroll..
how the hell does that look like the economy is growing????
they just hoarding for a rainy day i think

but talk to the locals here, business owners, landlords etc
sentiment is not good.. .more for lease signs popping up in downtown area... avg work per week for employees are getting cut

and we're in canada where shit is good

did you hear what Paulson's hedge fund performance this last year? he went long equities/commodities and got burned bad... down 47% this year alone..
and this is the guy who bet against subprime and got it right (you know, the GS scandal)

i dont beat my chest unlike you trying to justify companies i own or trade etc
denial is the worst for justifying positions in any portfolio

just letting guys here made aware that prices should come down if you have long term perspective, so why buy now?

you say you have a diversified portfolio... give me a break...CAT CUMMINS POT commodities etc....

do this forum a favor and show what a truly diversified portfolio is
a five stock basket isnt it

you are contradicting yourself by lambasting my 'politicians can prevent a recession' yet you just say that without QE we'd be f'd & in a recession, thus, by definition, aren't you saying that politicians/government are preventing a recession & attempting to push the economy along.

if you were to study any kind of economics, you'd appreciate that economies OFTEN need political intervention to get them on the right track.

and, yes, thank you, you can have a diversified portfolio with about 10 stocks, whcih is about what i hold - why 10, because more than 10 can you truly say that you know everything that you need to know about a company, industry, sector, to be comfortable putting your money into it, are you comfortable making a decision if part of the story changes? i'd say unless you have no life and only work part time, then perhaps, but i can't afford that kind of time investigating dozens of stocks that i own.

and i don't just own industrial & ag plays, but i believe strongly in ag being a nice portion of my portfolio, as its a great long term play and something that I can go on record as saying won't go to $0 anytime soon (assuming you pick quality companies)

you make yourself sound like people should listen to you - if anyone goes and looks at your 'advice', i think they'd be in shock, ESPECIALLY attempting to trade AAPL the day after Jobs' passing away. Like that wasn't priced in, as if that weren't priced in immediately after her retired. No one was selling on that news, it was a horrible piece of news, on a human front, but from a business standpoint it wasn't news at all, as we all knew it was, sadly, coming. AAPL moved with the market that day. Today, AAPL went up about 5% on the actions of POLITICIANS in Europe, decreasing peoples' perception of the gravity of the European debt crisis / Europe's ability to handle it, along with some continued positive news out of the US (some people in the media are now saying 'no recession in the US' - i expect lime to start repeating that, now that he's read it, i don't expect much independent thought)

For full disclosure, i own AAPL, have done for a long time, have loads of paper gains, will get loads more paper gains, and one day will take some more realized gains - when Jobs resigned, I was sad, but didn't change the long term outlook on AAPL, when Jobs died, i was very sad as a 56 year old man with more money than you'd ever imagined passed away way too early - didn't change my opinion on AAPL's success, when iPhone4S was released, i was disappointed as i was hoping for an iPhone5, but not shocked... still they have >1M preorders, and i have no doubt the iPhone5 will be great when released early next year - between now and then, i expect AAPL to keep on, slowly but surely, increasing in value - why, b/c its a game changer in the tech sector, an industry leader, an amazingly well run company, with amazing products, which will keep on innovating. so rather than trying to play games with financials for a week, i'd say get in on some AAPL on dips - buy in the $350's/$360's - better yet, buy some options

[4444]

Originally Posted by shawnly1000

For those following the Eurozone issues:

"Merkel, Sarkozy Say Have Deal On European Banks"

UPDATE: Merkel, Sarkozy Say Have Deal On European Banks - WSJ.com

it had to come though, if they just sat by while Europe's financial system collapsed, given what we've seen in the last 3 years, their political careers would be dead

[leilomo]

hmm...have a funny feeling that the tsx will be down tomorrow on profit taking from todays huge move in the spy / dow / nasdaq. added tza calls for a quick 1-2 trade...

[waddy41]

couldn't take a day off, I bought GE puts

[strykn]

dont think theres gonna be a follow through, tomorrow gonna be down IMO

[TouringTeg]

I think the TSX will see a bounce in the morning, and then the rally will taper off in the afternoon unless more positive news comes out.

[lime56]

QE and such were FED interventions

a true diversified portfolio would not just hold stocks dumbass

i cant believe how asinine ur post was 4444

thnx for the haterade

y bring up the aapl trade? lol
Posted via RS Mobile

[lime56]

anyways.

i think s&p 1200 must be broken at some point for a new trend to take place
if not then new lows for the year at months end

been very technical trading since mid aug
Posted via RS Mobile

[highfive]

Originally Posted by lime56

did you hear what Paulson's hedge fund performance this last year? he went long equities/commodities and got burned bad... down 47% this year alone..
and this is the guy who bet against subprime and got it right (you know, the GS scandal)

So what are you trying to say? Keep in mind that Paulson's gold fund is down even though gold set a new high this year and gold is supposed to be the safe haven asset.

BTW you and 4444 have different ways of investing. You're a trader and 4444 is more of a buy and hold investor. No need to call someone a dumbass when he doesn't agree with you.

[highfive]

Originally Posted by strykn

edit: careful highfive, 90% of options expire worthless, they are manipulated to max pain on strike dates. u have to be in & out of calls

Thanks..yeah that's why I never really got into options. I've gotten burned before.

[shawnly1000]

Slovak Parliament Rejects Plan To Expand EFSF, Government Loses Confidence Vote

[no_clue]

^ add US Jobs bill denied at senate

[Sky_High]

FEED jumped 15%

[highfive]

^ Yeah if you bought at .40, you could've doubled your money. LOL

Side note: Did anyone hear about Roubini's research firm for sale?

News Headlines

I find it fucking ironic and hilarious that Dr. Doom can't keep his firm profitable.