STOCK MARKET Thread

[Geoc]

With all the talk about CLL, I am intrigued as well. But I am more of a short term trader, meaning I'm planning to put in 10k shares, ride a wave, and get out. Dunno if this stock is good for short term tho.

If I am indeed opening long, I'll probably throw in 3-5k shares just to see what happens.

[TouringTeg]

Glad to see POT coming back. They doubled their dividend and project a record year for production.

[lowside67]

It sure will be interesting to watch Facebook's IPO. I don't really know what to make of it though.

Mark

[Iceman-19]

Originally Posted by Geoc

With all the talk about CLL, I am intrigued as well. But I am more of a short term trader, meaning I'm planning to put in 10k shares, ride a wave, and get out. Dunno if this stock is good for short term tho.

If I am indeed opening long, I'll probably throw in 3-5k shares just to see what happens.

From what I understand, it shouldnt be too long. No CEO, buy out looming.

[MindBomber]

I'll definitely be watching the Facebook IPO, but it will be far to volatile for me to be interested in actually buying shares. It's not the next Google, it has no capability of diversifying outside of social media and well that market will continue to grow indefinitely and a growth in that market would increase FB's revenue, it also means new competitors will arise. I see those competitors eventually taking over a large portion of FB's market share with a more streamlined middle ground between twitter and FB, once that happens FB will no longer be the go to social media site. The pattern already exists with the decline in popularity of Nexopia and Myspace in favour of Facebook and in turn the rise in popularity of Twitter, which also seems to have taken over a portion of FB's market share.

[highfive]

Last year's operating profit of 1.5 billion but is valued at 100 billion? Facebook does not compute.

I rather put my money in Apple. At least they have 100 billion in cash.

[strykn]

first profit of the year, AMLN!

[lime56]

Originally Posted by highfive

Last year's operating profit of 1.5 billion but is valued at 100 billion? Facebook does not compute.

I rather put my money in Apple. At least they have 100 billion in cash.

you sure thats profit? or just rev numbers?...

cuz 1.5 billion profit if a fucking lot

[lime56]

Originally Posted by bakasam

Looking for some opinions:

So i've been doing some option plays for the past year-year and a half now simply because I didn't have enough capital to make a portfolio that would give me decent returns. So far option play has been a hit or miss sorta thing (Win some lose some and overall its around the break even mark). Been mainly following stuff like trends (e.g the gold boom in the summer, earning calls, overall economic situation, etc)

The market this year seems to have stabilized so far (not seeing those 100~400 point fluctuations each day) But I'm probably gonna wait for another couple months to see if this is only a temporary thing. I've finally got some money saved up (Full time school + part time job can only save so much lol) and I'm starting to look at holding some stocks for less riskier returns. Not really big on stuff like mutual funds and whatnot.

What i'm looking to do is starting a portfolio in the coming months with about 10~12k.
Looking at spreading 8~10k or so among 3~5 different stocks (in different sectors) and leaving around 2k for option play. I am not interested at all in penny stocks at all and don't have the experience to invest in them. I know theres a couple people here big on stocks like CLL, CUU etc but its not really my thing.

Would 10k be a feasible amount to start a small portfolio? Or should I hold out a bit longer and try to bring it up some more?

Maybe some of you (i know there are a couple of other students who post on this thread regularly as well) with around the same amount of capital could talk about their experiences?

i gave some 'advice' on what to do with 10k and got flamed for it here


so here we go again...
the fact that you are trading for over a year on options etc and right now, if you're being honest, break even thats actually not bad

keeps your head on your shoulders, dont get cocky

trade accordingly and if you wanna trade to make money, then you have to be in and out like a fox

[hirevtuner]

in order to make money from the market is to have a plan, discipline patience, losing money is part of recognizing your mistakes and learn not to make them again

10K is a good starting point for a portfolio but be very comfortable with the amount of risk you take or else you will be an emotional trader which results in making major mistakes

[bbbj]

bought in some SU before close on friday. i want to get some URRE since it dipped but funds all tied up

[highfive]

Originally Posted by lime56

you sure thats profit? or just rev numbers?...

cuz 1.5 billion profit if a fucking lot

Facebook's operating profit was around $1.5 billion in 2011 and its operating revenues were about $3.8 billion, acco...

Yeah not bad but you can't value it at a $100 billion. It's crazy to think facebook earnings can catch up to that value before google tries do do anything with google plus to stop them.

[Hehe]

I usually value IPO at ~8 times its revenue. This would put FB at around 30B. Anything beyond that is speculation.

Plus, I don't think FB has a very clear vision on how to expand its profit. Ads is the dominant part of FB revenue, but until I see what is beyond ads or perhaps way to expand that ads potential (like google's expansion to Android) I won't put my money in FB.

[highfive]

I can't find the article but I read one where they justify the 100 billion price tag.

They list a bunch of intangibles about Facebook and saying how it dominates in its technological area etc etc.

Based on that and past history of Microsoft or Google, they all end up being 200 billion over the years.

So they say 100 billion is worth it today because it's going to be big someday.

A big fucking someday IMO.

Edit: Found the article http://www.businessinsider.com/faceb...luation-2012-1

[TouringTeg]

CLL down again ugh

[Iceman-19]

I know, I was so thrilled since I bought at 1.03, lol.

[lowside67]

Originally Posted by Hehe

I usually value IPO at ~8 times its revenue. This would put FB at around 30B. Anything beyond that is speculation.

Plus, I don't think FB has a very clear vision on how to expand its profit. Ads is the dominant part of FB revenue, but until I see what is beyond ads or perhaps way to expand that ads potential (like google's expansion to Android) I won't put my money in FB.

You really can't just simply value any IPO at a given number. Different companies and certainly different sectors operate on dramatically different multiples.

There are a lot of comparisons to be made between Google and Facebook, they are both clear dominant leaders in a new market with a technology that doesn't automatically show a clear growth pattern in revenues. Google currently trades at around 7 times revenue.

However, the IPO valued the company at around $24B and revenues approximately $1.5B, or a multiple of 16 times revenue. With Facebook's revenue of $4.2B, you are looking at a market cap of around $67B simply if you equate the two multiples.

I believe there is a case to be made that the multiple for FB should be even higher - if you simplify the revenue model to one that is based purely on users using the service, Google users were a much higher percentage of all searches than Facebook users are of all internet users - this means (in extremely simple terms) that Facebook theoretically has more growth potential.

Google has posted an average return of over 30% since the IPO... I could live with that in my portfolio! But by the time the general public gets to buy Facebook, I suspect the prices are going to be so crazy that it's going to be hard to logically make the purchase...

Mark

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by lowside67

You really can't just simply value any IPO at a given number. Different companies and certainly different sectors operate on dramatically different multiples.

The main problem for FB, as I mentioned in my post is about its vision on revenue/profit expansion.

At currently available infos, FB's ads business is certainly growing, but not at the same pace that the site does. This means that there is no direct connection between its growth and its revenue. But rather the revenue growth is a by-product of FB popularity.

How long could FB's popularity continue? What would happen when its user base gets to a standstill point?

Without a vision and a clear idea, FB is nothing more than a service that have a whole lot of users, but with no way to make more money off its users.

[jasonturbo]

Yeah CLL is a mess right now,... nobody in their right mind is going to buy into a company that lost it's entire upper brass in some psudo-coup fore-fronted by an investment group lol... unless of course they know a buyout is imminent.

I just sitting on it, willing to ride the up's and down's until the financials come out... would be great to see the company sold before that time but I have my doubts that will happen... Expecting great financials and approval for Algar expansion helps me ignore the gradual bleeding over the last week.. it's all to similar to when the stock sat around .75 for a few weeks after touching the 1$ mark.

This is how you make money on the stock market though lol.. taking risks. (Educated ones anyway)

[Excelsis]

time to start a new hobby, invest in stocks

[strykn]

Greece debt taking a 70% haircut....

[TouringTeg]

Yep waiting on cll quarter report.

Faz is at just 30 right now but I was promoted to mgmt in my company and don't have a lot of time to day trade anymore.
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[Iceman-19]

When is CLLs report due?

*edit* Used a beautiful tool called the internet. Mar. 15th.

[bbbj]

Thinking about dumping CLL right now and hoping it will go down to mid .80's before buy back

[Iceman-19]

SHhhhhhhhhh, think positive!