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VIX is a measure of overall market volatility (a.k.a fear index)

VIX Screams Lower Stock Prices Ahead (VXX) | Wall Street Sector Selector

Strykn?

Volatility is your friend, i.e. it's the equivalent to the waves surfers look for

Yeah...wtf...a few months ago I told myself to buy some more AAPL stock when it dipped to 360-370...and I didn't. Now I'm kicking myself. Made over 30% on my AAPL stock last year by just sitting on it...

Why doesn't Apple pay a dividend!!!!! You would see the share price just take off..

^Better buy in before they do! :D

I really want to own some Apple but it just seems like such a ridiculous time to buy in, all time highs, media frenzy, etc. Any thoughts on an entrance strategy?

Mark

it is ridiculous..go find a better opportunity

I'm kicking myself for not buying LIQ for my TFSA early this Jan...

^That's what's people told me last year when I bought in at $327.

Well, I think it's about time they kick those lazy ass Greeks out of the Eurozone.. then we can watch Spain and Portugal go into a state of panic of bond traders make haste to the exits lol.

Sure am glad I liquidated yesterday, I was able to scoop up some mild bargains this morning...

CLL looks like it's ready to take off, over the last two weeks the volume ha dropped off of a cliff, but the Level 2 says the bid numbers are just growing and growing, I am thinking that soon it will pop and get over the 1$ Level...

I bought a bunch of YNG as the valuation is just so cheap I cant pass it up. Once they post some decent numbers (which probably wont be until Q2 2012, once they have had a full operating period with the new plant) people will realize this company can be hugely profitable. Just the valuation of their one property alone is over $0.55 / share in just PP&E...

I'd like to buy CLL but I just can't get my head around it... if the company doesn't get bought, there really is no upside... they arent profitable, and there isn't a good reason for why that would change.

Mark

Took some profit on CLL but still have 5200 shares @ avg .93

Market is pricing in a Greek default it seems. Commodities related stocks are way down (POT, SU.TO)

Wish I grabbed some YNG when it hit 36.5 this morning.

The theory is that CLL is profitable with Bitumen prices where they are... assuming bitumen/oil stays up.

What you say about YNG is very accurate, if that company is able to meet their target production with current gold prices.. you should see a massive upside, and I truly feel these prices won't last long.. look at the valuation of some exploration companys and compare them to YNG... it's unreal. Sure YNG is a capital intensive operation compared to strip mining, but has a very large proven resource base, and proven (reliable) techniques for harvesting this resource... they aren't hunting for narrow vanes and the "sweet spots", it's strictly a matter of volume.. and I like that a lot.

From my perspective I see this for oil:

- Inflation and manufacturing increasing demand, whether it be by natural means of economic growth or govt stimulus. (See the gold note below lol)
- Political issues in the persian gulf leading to increased oil prices (And further economic stimulus associated with military spending)
- Oil is the crack cocaine of developed nations...

And this for gold:

- Govt stimulus here/abroad and low interest rates, combined with further political fiscal unccertainty and a US election will lead to higher or at least stable gold prices.

Thos are the main reasons why I am primarily invested in oil and gold... Govt's will continue to bail people out, the bailing out will increase the demand for oil, and at the same time hurt currencies and send people running for the "security" of gold.

Please note that I personally despise the "gold bug" types, I see no value in gold.. but many others due.

This is the basic premise that I have issue with.

Looking at their latest available financials, they are basically breaking even in Q3.

Q3 2011: $3.6M profit ($0.01 per share)
Q3 2010: $4.1M profit ($0.01)

However, looking at YTD:

YTD 2011: $54.6M LOSS ($0.12)
YTD 2010: $19.0M LOSS ($0.04)

I haven't really ripped apart their financial like I have YNG's, but I don't see the profitability. I have read that their interest payments are massive which is affecting their ability to show a profit but a stronger company could buy the assets and finance the debt more affordably and make a good return on the assets which is why they are such an attractive takeover target.

Thoughts?

Mark

The difference is this,

https://osi.alberta.ca/osi-content/P...umenPrices.png

Bitumen to light/medium/heavy crude oil price "beta" has been shrinking.

http://www.connacheroil.com/en/inves...2012-01-04.pdf

"In November 2011 Connacher’s bitumen selling price was $61.84 per barrel (“bbl”) unhedged and $62.83/bbl with hedging, each of which was up 45% from October 2011 selling prices of $42.61/bbl unhedged and $43.48/bbl with hedging. Connacher’s December 2011 final price data is not yet available but the company knows bitumen prices remained strong during the month. It is also Connacher’s view that the trend may persist into 2012."

Based on the information available from around the industry, it would be reasonable to assume that Connachers bitumen prices since November have been in the high sixties and possibly even into the seventies.

So in terms of cash flow:
14000bbl/day @ 43$ = 602k/day or 18.0mil/month
14000bbl/day @ 65$ = 910k/day or 27.3mil/month

An additional nine million dollars per month in revenue for Connacher, over the course of 3 months is enough to increase EPS by .06... possibly turning in a positive quarter. Also factor i the twinning production well numbers which have no been released, ... some have speculated 600BOE/day... if you factor this into the equation you can add an additional 3.5 million dollars over tha quarter, based on a discounted rate as I am not trying to be optimistic.

The reality is this, Connacher at current production is not a very pretty picture unless oil prices are 100+ per bbl, but on the flip side, the extra 20kbbl/day of the expansion for 400 million investment.. would make Connacher very attractive.

This is why a capital heavy player will buy CLL.

I am hoping to buy into YNG very soon. May even sell off 1000 shares of CLL and put it in there.
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I don't expect that YNG is going to be a short term bet though... there is progress but it will take some time before it is reflected in the share price. I am expecting it will take at least 6 months, but on the plus side, I can't see any possibility of an appropriate valuation below $1.20 based on their prospects alone, let alone the assets (hard to value, but definitely not worthless). They have a computed PV of around $0.70 from their own valuation based on revenue with gold at $1100 ($1600+ today) and with no valuation on the potentially huge find they made.

Mark

LIQ and JE has done some amazing things for me in the last two quarters.
I moved all my RRSPs/DC Pensions from my employer plan to iTrade and I basically went 50/50 on the two stocks.

Anyone else focuses on high-yield dividend stocks?

how did you transfer all your RRPS's into a trading account?

i have a finacial planner that has done $0 increase with my money in the past 6 years and i want to take it all back and be able to control it myself but it's all RRSP's

I would be in for a long haul with YNG, just want to get in while it's cheap.
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Well I don't want to speculate too much, but I believe that before 2013 we may see YNG hit the 2$ mark... I know it sounds a bit much... but we can re-visit this post later in the year.

Having said that, for me it's a great stock to ride the ups and downs while looking for better short term plays and then buying back in for the longs in-between. Even without the new mine being taken into consideration, with gold at these levels they are a very profitable company and have a long operating life ahead of them... very good long term growth with the chance of some significant short term gains IMO.

Thats how I feel anyway :)

so many terms to learn :fulloffuck:

i'm splitting my new TFSA on Monday between YNG and PCY. we'll see that happens. got a small position in CLL, just for shits

I would like to put a couple K each into YNG and PCY.