STOCK MARKET Thread

[will068]

Originally Posted by shawnly1000

You play with big money eh, 10 calls, 30,000 invested.
Posted via RS Mobile

When opportunity presents itself, why not. =)

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

LOL..

I think that the there is people on the CLL buyout bandwagon who don't like the risk of what the financials may bring... I kinda expected a bit of a dip before financials.

I also think the financials will be positive, at least when compared to the previous 3 years.

Trouble for CLL is even with a positive EPS of say .01+ for the 4th quarter of 2011 (Which should be indicative for 2012 performance), they have not yet offered any indication as to how they would proceed with financing the construction of the next phase.. which should be CLL's #1 priority... Producing Oilsands lease land is worth umpteen times what the undeveloped land is worth.

Even with a price tag of 400-650 million dollars for the expansion, the increased cash flows from production would be a game changer for CLL, if they can find the right way to finance the expansion... it will be good times for the longs...

Though I still can't see any other way but a buyout, and anything less than 2$ would be robbery.

I own some CLL and did a lot of research but I agree and disagree.

Looking at their financials, they indicated based on jan 4th news release that they would be making ~ $30 million before taxes, interest, depreciation for the first two months, I assume the last month of the quarter was stellar based on bitumen and oil prices.

But we must factor in the high dollar, even if they make 50 million for the quarter, minus their interest and depreciation, im predicting their Net income for the quarter to be somewhere alone $8-10 million, which would give it a 2 cents EPS.

If we assume that they make $10 million for the quarter and use that as a basis for next year, they make $40 million for the year, which gives them a multiple of ~ 10X, much lower for the industry standard for similar companies, so this implies that they are pretty undervalued.

But I don't see how they can grow further, they are producing about 14K and have capacity for 16K? , they can expand the great divide but im not sure where they would get the money from? Plus, they are only profitable if oil stays at this level it seems.

IMHO, Basically, as a shareholder, I'ld stay with this company for 1) the buyout
or 2) if I see oil prices remaining this high in 2012.

otherwise I'd dump the stock and move on to something else. I really don't know if oil prices will remain like this, any bad global news or slow growth related news can cause oil prices to go down again. But hopefully this company can get taken out before any of this.

[lowside67]

Anybody losing sleep over their YNG down 15%? I am averaged down a little bit but still have an avg cost of around $0.39 including commissions... ouch! I know that in the long term it's a good bet but it sure is hard to look at.

Not to mention CLL, it's a scary week in my world. NZ and TAG are doing OK, managed to score a bit more NZ, TAG is still flying high and I might need to readjust my expected buy point, but at least they are in the green and producing returns.

Oh, and fuck Apple (as a guy who almost bought it at around $480 and said "It can't possibly keep going up, it MUST be due for a correction soon" and now watched it touch $600 this morning, only a month later).

Mark

[TouringTeg]

Yes I am getting burned by YNG. It's really taking a beating as gold slides. 15550 shares avg .386 Going long so just going to wait.

FAZ is getting very interesting down to 21.36. Should Spain get into trouble there could be major upswings for FAZ.

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by lowside67

Anybody losing sleep over their YNG down 15%? I am averaged down a little bit but still have an avg cost of around $0.39 including commissions... ouch! I know that in the long term it's a good bet but it sure is hard to look at.

Not to mention CLL, it's a scary week in my world. NZ and TAG are doing OK, managed to score a bit more NZ, TAG is still flying high and I might need to readjust my expected buy point, but at least they are in the green and producing returns.

Oh, and fuck Apple (as a guy who almost bought it at around $480 and said "It can't possibly keep going up, it MUST be due for a correction soon" and now watched it touch $600 this morning, only a month later).

Mark

When I look at apple, from the perspective of being undervalued, there are other profitable and secure companies out there which are unervalued to a similar extent, and also pay a dividend. (Here is an interesting read http://seekingalpha.com/article/3336...low-p-e-ratios or http://seekingalpha.com/article/2650...-paying-stocks )

The catch with Apple is this, if they announce a revolving dividend, the share price will skyrocket.. dare I say 1000$/share wouldn't be out of the question. So as an investor, Apple paying a dividend would be a win-win situation, the share price would jump and you would be getting paid to hold it... would be nice to be holding Apple before this was announced. The PE alone for Apple suggests it's trading lower than it should.

CLL and YNG, well... I'm not scared. YNG and CLL are both tightly tied to the price of their respective commodities, and both have been somewhat soft recently.. especially gold. With YNG the catalyst for an increase in share value is the 1st and/or 2nd quarter 2012 earning reports... could it rally before then on speculation? I believe it could and thats why I bouhgt some when I did.. in the interest of full disclosure I am no longer holding any YNG at this time, but plan to buy back in shortly.

CLL I am holding a large position, at 1$/share you are basically taking no risk IMO, even as a complete distress sale there would be companies lined up to purcahse it for that price... meanwhile the upside is IMO an easy 100%+

Oil if you believe the global economy is coming back into full swing.
Gold if you believe that the global economy is still fragile.

I chose to invest in both for the time being, as I believe that we are entering a period of expensive oil and continued financial instability... is this a conflicting statement? Sure... but it's my opinion.

[lowside67]

Re: AAPL
The question is if Apple doesn't start to pay a dividend, then what does the upside look like? They are up to 17 times earnings now which while it isn't quite Google's 20, it's also not an insignificant valuation. If they don't make their next earnings, which I believe is due April 15th, then what does the fallout look like? 5%? 10? Any blue chip company that can experience 20% growth in 1 month certainly has enough "hype" behind it to also fall 10% on bad news IMO.

Re: CLL
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards...0&s=CLL&t=LIST
Interesting look at some of the buy support today.

Mark

[Spoon]

TheSpec - Foreign ownership limits lifted for smaller players...

Foreign ownership limits lifted for smaller players in wireless auction

RUSSELL, ONT. Ottawa moved Wednesday to level the wireless playing field by placing limits on the coming wireless spectrum auction and lifting foreign-investment limits on small telecom firms in an effort to boost competition.

What's everyone's outlook on Canadian Telecoms? Specifically Rogers/Telus/Bell.

[will068]

Originally Posted by lowside67

Re: AAPL
The question is if Apple doesn't start to pay a dividend, then what does the upside look like? They are up to 17 times earnings now which while it isn't quite Google's 20, it's also not an insignificant valuation. If they don't make their next earnings, which I believe is due April 15th, then what does the fallout look like? 5%? 10? Any blue chip company that can experience 20% growth in 1 month certainly has enough "hype" behind it to also fall 10% on bad news IMO.

Re: CLL
http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards...0&s=CLL&t=LIST
Interesting look at some of the buy support today.

Mark

AAPL usually has a 10% rise or fall after earnings. As you said P/E Ration is just under 17. If you look at Apple's financials, that makes Apple CHEAP!

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by Spoon

TheSpec - Foreign ownership limits lifted for smaller players...


What's everyone's outlook on Canadian Telecoms? Specifically Rogers/Telus/Bell.

The "set aside" spectrum for smaller providers is not enough @ 5 MHz, without 10 MHz of spectrum for their LTE network it is not possible to offer any real improvement in currently offered services.

This to me is an obvious mistake on the part of regulators.

[highfive]

For AAPL, try taking off the cash equiv per share and see the P/E.

For every $585, there's $100 bucks in cash. Means the $485 per share company is earning what $35-40 per share a year.

But the thing with AAPL is that they are almost priced for perfection, any hiccup would create a sell off.

[jasonturbo]

http://www.connacheroil.com/en/inves...2012-03-16.pdf

Connachers Oil and Gas Earnings Report

I have to say the results seem slightly misleading to me.. as if that was the intent. 4th QTR 2011 Revenue's of 226M and they somehow managed to post a net loss of 59M??? (EPS of -0.13)

The comment about this loss being the result of "year‐end adjustments for non‐cash items" is not backed up with the proper disclosure IMO and also makes it impossible base anything on Q4 results. A company like CLL should be including more information in these financials, IE: Operating expenditures, debt repayments, etc.

Guess we shall soon see how the market feels about it, I'm sticking to my guns that a fair valuation for the company (factoring in reserves of course) would be min. $2.25 after taxes... if the buyout never comes or happens at much discounted rate... oh well it's just money lol.

[lowside67]

I'm definitely surprised at the lack of detail... how you get to a loss of 59M is a material concern, as you mentioned, but being a quarter report they have a lot of flexibility as to how they calculate that. I'm torn as to what to do... I assume and hope that it can't get much worse than it currently is but I'm just not convinced there is an offer in the pipeline. There probably will be some day but is it worth holding onto and missing out on other opportunities until that day? Maybe for $2.00 a share it would be, certainly not for $1.25!

Mark

[Synarchist]

bvsn should be making another run next week
hoping it will hit my target price of $60
its been 40 days on the sho list
short squeeze again soon
anyone else bought?

[iEatClams]

regarding CLL:

Sometimes when a new CEO takes over mid way through a quarter, he tries to put everything bad into that quarter and blame it on the "bad" ceo that got canned. So he'll try to find anything negative can and stack that quarter with negative losses, that way he has a fresh start to the new quarter and can have stellar results going forward?

[TouringTeg]

Interesting price floor for CLL at .99 considering the negative quarterly results.

Jason tell me you bought POT It's up 6.4% today.

[will068]

Originally Posted by AME_VIP

Interesting price floor for CLL at .99 considering the negative quarterly results.

Jason tell me you bought POT It's up 6.4% today.

It's a down trending stock. Hedge Funds purposely raised the price of the stock since March Options expire tomorrow. Therefore making the puts cheap so they can buy back what they sold. Same thing for Rimm.

[will068]

My next 3 plays.

1. Calls on NKE for their earnings next week.

- the success of their last releases, Jordan XI Concorde, Jordan IV cements Penny Galaxy Foams, Launch of Kobe VII, the new success of the KD IV line and the all star shoes.

2. Puts on RIMM for their earnings release on the 29th.

3. Calls on AAPL Earnings release on April 24 (The new IPAD!), Generally, their Q2 has been consistently great since the launch of the Iphone.

[Scoobysnax]

Originally Posted by will068

My next 3 plays.

1. Calls on NKE for their earnings next week.

- the success of their last releases, Jordan XI Concorde, Jordan IV cements Penny Galaxy Foams, Launch of Kobe VII, the new success of the KD IV line and the all star shoes.

2. Puts on RIMM for their earnings release on the 29th.

3. Calls on AAPL Earnings release on April 24 (The new IPAD!), Generally, their Q2 has been consistently great since the launch of the Iphone.

I like all 3 . Do you use other option strategies such as spreads, straddles, iron condors?

[will068]

Originally Posted by Scoobysnax

I like all 3 . Do you use other option strategies such as spreads, straddles, iron condors?

I use vertical spreads a bit.

As for iron condors and straddles, I'm not confident in my skills when buying and selling calls and puts simultaneously. I'm just playing around with that in my play money account =).

I try to avoid stocks now. For long term plays, I just buy leaps instead of stocks.

Any upcoming plays for you ?

[shawnly1000]

Originally Posted by will068

My next 3 plays.

1. Calls on NKE for their earnings next week.

- the success of their last releases, Jordan XI Concorde, Jordan IV cements Penny Galaxy Foams, Launch of Kobe VII, the new success of the KD IV line and the all star shoes.

2. Puts on RIMM for their earnings release on the 29th.

3. Calls on AAPL Earnings release on April 24 (The new IPAD!), Generally, their Q2 has been consistently great since the launch of the Iphone.

Are you buying AAPL calls in anticipation of an earnings runup or gonna buy it on the day of and hold through?

[will068]

Originally Posted by shawnly1000

Are you buying AAPL calls in anticipation of an earnings runup or gonna buy it on the day of and hold through?

Gonna buy it prior.

[shawnly1000]

"Apple to make announcement regarding the company's cash balance tomorrow morning at 9am ET"

Will it go north of $600 or drop below Friday's close?

[lowside67]

Sounds like a dividend announcement?

[highfive]

I think it's either a big dividend or significant share buyback.

But imagine if they want to keep the money instead and do acquisitions over upcoming years...

Think about it, I believe a significant chunk of Apple's cash is overseas. IF they bring it back to do a big dividend, that cash would be taxed though. That's why Microsoft hoarded cash for so many years and end up buying Skype because it was an overseas deal.

[Sky_High]

Originally Posted by shawnly1000

Will it go north of $600 or drop below Friday's close?

It's only 2am right now....and it's already at $600.00 (+$14.83 / 2.53%)

If only I purchased some options....