STOCK MARKET Thread

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by highfive

I'm not too familiar with oil/gas stocks, maybe Jason can help out?

Sure can't sorry Don't know much about the companies or the trust structure.

But if you want some advice on how to lose money.. I'm getting pretty good at that!

[4444]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

Realtors are a fucking joke, period.

I would rather live in a cage with 100 used car salesmen than with one greasy ass realtor.

It's funny to me, their "clients" are dumb enough to beleive that the realtor is acting in their best interests? Pretty sure they are acting in their best interests.. which happen to conflict with the clients.

Imagine you're a realtor, your client wants to sell his house for 800k but an offer comes in at 750k.. to the client, thats a 50k hit.. but to the realtor it barely puts a dent in the commision (Say 2.5% commision, split between both realtors = 1.25% for the selling realtor or 652$... and part of that goes back to the brokerage)

So what does the realtor do? Advises you to sell, so he can move on to the next chump why stick it out for an extra 625$ if he's already made over 9k (It's actually higher I beleive as the first 100k is usually a higher commision rate)... meanwhile you're "expert" just cost you 50k in the interest of doing more volume and not waiting to make his money. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.. Realtos practically live by this IMO.

"Most realtors" don't have a fucking clue about finance, investing, or houses for that matter... see how many of them could actually build you a house... I've have met lots of realtors in my life, and I have been able to bully all of them in arguments cause they didn't know shit about their own job.... except that granite looks really nice.

Grr.... scumbags. Having said that, I wish I was "born" into real estate so I could piss and moan about how hard my day was of driving a couple people around for a few hours and walking them through a house... Sorry realtors but to me... your job is bullshit, 99% of people could be a realtor within about 50 hours of study/instruction.

But then again, unless you have connections that 50 hours doesn't do shit for you, cause you won't get any work.

this is the definition of truthiness!!!
Vancouver realtors are the sleaziest of all sleazeballs - i work with realtors in the states, after taking away their greasyness associated with being realtors, they're actually ok (well hte ones i work with at least), don't make much commission (gven that i'm buying $100K properties)

but vnacouver ones, ugh, lowest of the low - why we don't have lower commissions or FIXED payments for service is beyond me

i've heard realtors say things like 'people hate me becasue they envy me, want to be me, or fear me' - BS, i hate you because you're doing an immorral service and are being paid above hte odds because of a herd mentality that RE only goes up in Vancouver

i will say this straight up, I AM smarter than EVERY realtor in Vancouver, fact, i would never do their job even if they get paid more than i do, because i have moral fibre and live within ethical bounds of a professional designation - netiher apply for them

[no_clue]

Every week I get a letter in the mail from a realtor asking me to list my house.
I'd like some opinions from you guys, should I sell my house now and live off the interest while waiting for the real estate to crash? I bought it in 2009 and if it sells at my reasonable asking price, I can make 55% including cost of renovations. However, I don't have a mortgage so it doesn't affect me too much if interest rates go up/housing market falls etc.

Anyone know how to short the Vancouver market? or specifically condos? lol

Originally Posted by Spoon

Picked up some CCL this week.

Just curious why you picked SJR.B. I held it on and off for most of 2011 and decided to just sell everything off this year.

I bought SJR in the NYSE because I wanted a good US dividend. Personally I think their wi-fi tower will work out to their advantage for further growth. Lots of Asian cities have that + on public transit.

[4444]

Originally Posted by no_clue

Every week I get a letter in the mail from a realtor asking me to list my house.
I'd like some opinions from you guys, should I sell my house now and live off the interest while waiting for the real estate to crash? I bought it in 2009 and if it sells at my reasonable asking price, I can make 55% including cost of renovations. However, I don't have a mortgage so it doesn't affect me too much if interest rates go up/housing market falls etc.

Anyone know how to short the Vancouver market? or specifically condos? lol



I bought SJR in the NYSE because I wanted a good US dividend. Personally I think their wi-fi tower will work out to their advantage for further growth. Lots of Asian cities have that + on public transit.

chump advice would come from me (whcih would be to sell)

but do whatever you think is right - can you get better return on your money (opportunity cost of owning mortgage free) less cost to rent equivalent rent?

personally, i'd sell the place, buy a bunch of properties in the US and live off the income off of those, but that's just me - and i also have expertise in this area.

you could take the money and invest in preferred shared, dividend paying stocks, etc. and collect 6%+ after tax on your capital

or if you wanted to keep it - why not get a mortgage and invest that money, cost = 2.99%, if you can get the 6% return on pref. shares/div paying stocks, why not?

again, all the above are thoughts - do what you think is best for you

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by no_clue

Anyone know how to short the Vancouver market? or specifically condos? lol.

Well now that's an interesting one...

I beleive Canadian real estate is due for a correction, but many others do not agree... mind you most of these people don't have a clue about economics.

If you want reasons why it should crash : Book and Weblog – Authored by Garth Turner — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate Mr. Turner presents the logical case for a real estate correction.

Here is another option, with interst rates so low, keep the condo (Since you have to live somewhere and you aren't giving away piles of money in a mortgage) why not consider a HELOC at 80% of the equity and then invest that in whatever you please?

Another thing you can do is sell the condo, invest the money with a money management firm (like wellington west (now National Bank Financial), they can arrange it so the XX dollars you have invested with them can be used to secure a loan between 80-100% of the portfolio value... Now you have say 400k invested with a money manager that should be able to get you a bare minimum of 6.5% annually, and another say 300k for you to play with and invest as you see fit... even it it's only pref. shares at another 6.5% (Easily attainable with Canadian Bank and other Corp. preffereds) No you are making roughly 45000k per year off of your 400k cash... over 10% yield with basically no risk if you stick to pref. shares. Obviously if you're feeling risky you can adjust accordingly, now you are also completely liquid, something real estate obviously doesn't offer.

My personal advice is that I would list the condo for the price "I want to get" if it sells, great.. if not you need a place to live anyway lol. Provided you plan to live here long term.

If I owned any property right now, it would be for sale, and I am meeting more and more people lately who have sold their house in the last year or so that plan to "buy back in on the correction"... so if that thought has dawned on many common folk, it's only a matter of time before it spreads... thats whay real estate cycle is so volatile, when sentiment shifts and people believe they can buy back in lower.. nobody wants to buy, and everyone wants to sell. (Obvisouly the opposite would apply to an appreciating market)

Remember in 2008, prices tanked everywhere in a matter of weeks, thats how fast it happens... people sure forget things in a hurry.

On a side note, I've really been considering a move to WA... cheap housing I would love to stop paying rent.

[highfive]

Originally Posted by no_clue

Every week I get a letter in the mail from a realtor asking me to list my house.
I'd like some opinions from you guys, should I sell my house now and live off the interest while waiting for the real estate to crash? I bought it in 2009 and if it sells at my reasonable asking price, I can make 55% including cost of renovations. However, I don't have a mortgage so it doesn't affect me too much if interest rates go up/housing market falls etc.

If you can make money why not? But I don't know if your house is near where you work or you love the area? Keep in mind you would have to find a new place to live and move there? The hassle of doing that?

4444, do you know if he would get capital gains tax?

If not, why not just get a credit line and use the equity? Interest rates are so low right now.


As for the realtor topic, I personally would just hire a really hot girl to be my realtor. At least then, we both have the mentality of wanting to FUCK each other.

[4444]

Originally Posted by highfive

If you can make money why not? But I don't know if your house is near where you work or you love the area? Keep in mind you would have to find a new place to live and move there? The hassle of doing that?

4444, do you know if he would get capital gains tax?

If not, why not just get a credit line and use the equity? Interest rates are so low right now.


As for the realtor topic, I personally would just hire a really hot girl to be my realtor. At least then, we both have the mentality of wanting to FUCK each other.

principal residence = no capital gains

if you can make money, why not? because prices may still go up, there are qualitative factors (some of which you have mentioned)

not really much point discussing this much more, the best suggestions have been given, sell & invest conservatively, or don't sell, use HELOC, invest conservatively

what anyone else would do is irrelevant

[MindBomber]

Realtors have little more talent than trained chimps, aside from the minor amount of technical knowledge they require to actually process deals, they lack any apparent skill. Selling a property quickly has nothing to do with a realtors ability to market it, unless you consider uploading photos onto MLS as marketing.

The Vancouver real estate market, especially the condo market, is due for a significant correction. There are less overbought areas surrounding Vancouver that would offer better investment opportunities if you're looking to buy real estate locally.

[no_clue]

I've used roughly 20% of the HELOC @ 3.5% on a commercial property in 2010. The cashflow from it is paying it off, repaid approximately next year. Another reluctance to sell is that it is on a unique lot, there are around 320 similar lots in the lower mainland. So im debating whether to weather through the correction or take profits now or use more of the HELOC. Although if there is a way to short the Vancouver condo market I will sell

Anyhow thanks again for your opinions, much appreciated and back to stocks!

anyone heard the rumours that the Shaw family is considering to sell? Rogers & Bell will fight over it to increase their Western Canada TV market for sure.

[Death2Theft]

The problem of selling your house is where you park your money and the rates the banks give these days...... factoring in inflation you'd be making losing money especially in bonds.

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by Death2Theft

The problem of selling your house is where you park your money and the rates the banks give these days...... factoring in inflation you'd be making losing money especially in bonds.

I don't think people here would consider selling their house to put the money into a 2% "high interest" savings account.

There are various financial devices that can guarantee you a fixed income of at least 6% with virtually no risk.

Say you bought your place for 600k (with a 5% 30000$ down payment, 4% 30-year mortgage, which also cost you CMHC insurance of ), and lived in it for 5 years, sold for 800k and then invested your money while waiting on the market to dip..

Based on a 25% drop over 2 years, on a nice 2 bedroom apartment in North Van which today would be valued at 800k, let's play the math game. (keep in mind, renting this apartment would cost you about 2700$/month)

One time CMHC insurance cost of 2.75%: 15675
One time down payment of: 30000

Your current monthly mortgage payment: 2707/month = 32484
Condo Fees: 350/month = 4200/year
Maintenance: 100/month = 1200/year
Total minimum basic cost per year: 37884/year

Total one time cost: 45675
Total revolving cost over 5 years: 189420
Total spent over 5 years: 235095

Equity in the home:
Down payment: 30000
Mortgage payments on principle: 54805 (The rest is donated to the bank of course!)
Total equity: 84805
Now with market appreciation (+200k selling price) 284805$

Delta - 49710

At the time you sold the home you made a 49710 profit, then the Realtor(s) (scumbags) takes their cut of 2.5% of the sale price (It's actually highter) so now the profit over 5 years is cut down to 29710$... and that's assuming you only spend 1200/year on maintenance, which IMO is probably too conservative. So what did you make? Nothing, cause you just got your down payment back.

So after five years, 4% mortgage over 30 year period, with 5% down, you made -290$.. and that's after the property appreciated 200k (25%)...

Now having said all that, sure some people got lower interest rates, some people put more than 5% down... but I'm trying to keep this realistic based on the avg down payment of 7% in Canada, average amoritization period of 32 years, and median household income.. and how many people can even probably come up with the 30k to put down on a place lol. (Matter of opinion I know....)

On the flip side, if you rented:

Total one time cost: 0$ (You get your damage deposit back after all.)
Total monthly revolving cost: 2700$/month = 32400/year
Total spent over 5 years: 162000

And with investing taken into consideration:
30000k down payment you didn't spend at 6.5% annual return over 5 years:
Year 1: 30000x.065= 31950
Year 2: 31950x.065= 34026.75
Year 3: ... 36238.489
Year 4: ... 38593.991
Year 5: ... 41102.6

Monthly savings of 450/month on condo fees and maintenance:
Total savings over 5 years: 27450
Total interest on savings over 5 years (at 6.5%): 4828.16

Total savings and interest (dividend income from pref shares at 6.5%):
73380.76$

So in the same time you owned a house that actually cost you 290$, you saved an additional 27450$, and made 15930.76$ in investments.

So where did you end up? 43090.76$ ahead by renting.. even though the market jumped 25%...

Sure if you have deep pockets this math doesn't matter to you, but for the average person, based on median household income, average savingd, and Canadian debt to income ratios.. it's pretty realistic for most people.

So back to the original point of this post, if you sell now and buy back in a couple years at 200k lower... taking the monthly savings and investment concept I displayed above for the renting scenario you would have....

Money saved/earned from renting with lower monthly expenses and the money made from 200k profit (assuming you have the equity at the end of the day) invested at 6.5% would put you ahead 238328.21$ in two years if you bought the same place after a 25% dip... never mind what you will save on your next mortgage with your giant down payment, it's well over 100k over the amoritization period.

Busy at work and this was a lot of screwing around with calculator on my Blackberry lol... so hopefully it all makes sense...

[jasonturbo]

I can't say I really understand what is taking place in the markets right now...

But I can tell you that I don't like it very much

[TouringTeg]

Very flat today. China imports down. Oil prices up. It feels like 2008 again when fear began to spread.

Good info on housing. Just made an aggressive offer on a small house with suite in a growing area of Victoria last night. Rental income changes the numbers and I have the funds for a decent down payment.

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by AME_VIP

Very flat today. China imports down. Oil prices up. It feels like 2008 again when fesr began yo spread.

Good info on housing. Just made an aggressive offer on a small house with suite in a growing area of Victoria last night. Rental income changes the numbers and I have the funds for a decent down payment.

The rental income of a suite is basically the only reason so many Vancouver residents have been able to afford their homes.. and I use the term "afford" losely lol.

It's funny cause after living in Van for a few years, Victoria seems so cheap lol

[4444]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

The rental income of a suite is basically the only reason so many Vancouver residents have been able to afford their homes.. and I use the term "afford" losely lol.

It's funny cause after living in Van for a few years, Victoria seems so cheap lol

you mean having illegal suites

i'm not from north america, and i can honestly say i just don't get it - you spend, lets say, $800K on a house (that's a LOT of money, by the way), only to have to share your house & land with someone else?!

to me, that's disgusting, it cheapens neighbourhoods, increases traffic etc. for systems not designed for higher density housing (multiple families at one address).

I'm shocked the CoV hasn't started actively looking at suites as a revenue stream, as ppl with a house + 2 suites should be paying 3x the property tax

[TouringTeg]

I really wonder how people can afford the homes in Van. Help from parents, big families all in one house, suites, live in students, etc etc. I guess.

Yah it cheap here compared to Van. In town average house is 550-650k. Go further out to Langford and new small homes are $399 (3 bed 3 bath). About a 45 min drive to downtown. I'm looking at a 5 bed 3 bath (small 2 bed suite on main level) about 35 min drive or can bike into town on dedicated trail.

Only thing green on my watch list is FAZ up 5%. Bought some this morning at 23.08 to try and offset my losses.

[lowside67]

WTF is going on with NZ... the only news out is from a company close by and it's good news, the price of oil is up, and yet they are down 10% from Friday's close?!?

Mark

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by lowside67

WTF is going on with NZ... the only news out is from a company close by and it's good news, the price of oil is up, and yet they are down 10% from Friday's close?!?

Mark

Too funny, I was just reflecting on NZ, and the 19% loss I am sitting on.

Nothing has changed, IMO it's simply a victim or market sentiment... I try not to look at the price as much as the volume, and for a lot of stocks, the volume is not indicative of a large sell-off.. it's just nervous folks running for the hills IMO.

[lowside67]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

Too funny, I was just reflecting on NZ, and the 19% loss I am sitting on.

Nothing has changed, IMO it's simply a victim or market sentiment... I try not to look at the price as much as the volume, and for a lot of stocks, the volume is not indicative of a large sell-off.. it's just nervous folks running for the hills IMO.

I agree. Nothing has changed, and I see no reason to get out of it, especially at the 21% loss I am looking at. But it's frustrating, I wish I had been more patient. There are two wells in the works, if they hit oil there, there should be a monster run. Mind you, if they don't, it might be pretty sleepy for awhile...

Mark

[Carl Johnson]

Is Europe on fire again?

[pastarocket]

Does anyone have recommendations on ETFs that are based on the commodity prices? Oil ETFs, or resource based on copper prices?

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by 4444

this is the definition of truthiness!!!
Vancouver realtors are the sleaziest of all sleazeballs - i work with realtors in the states, after taking away their greasyness associated with being realtors, they're actually ok (well hte ones i work with at least), don't make much commission (gven that i'm buying $100K properties)

but vnacouver ones, ugh, lowest of the low - why we don't have lower commissions or FIXED payments for service is beyond me

I've sold 3 houses in my day. The first two times I used a realtor and back then I didn't know better and trusted their advice. Being much older now I know these guys are fucking assholes. They are sleezy in the sneakiest ways. They will basically make you think you are making the best decision but stroke your emotions to make you feel good about what you are doing.

The third time I sold I didnt use a realtor and just called up a few realtors for "market evaluations" and I ask if you have any potential buyers.

I understand they need to be paid for so I just told them if you bring me buyers, I'll give you 10K in commissions - a flat fee (instead of paying like 25K if I were to use a realtor). This way I saved some money.

[highfive]

Jason - any good from the AA trade?

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by highfive

Jason - any good from the AA trade?

Didn't actually purchase AA yet, speaking with a friend who works for AIMCO (Alberta Investment Management Fund) as a hedge fund manager, he told me to hold tight until after earnings and after they anounce some asset sales that he expects to be completed shortly.

EDIT:Just got off conference call with National Bank Financial Turner/Tomenson, they see this correction in the markets as being fairly natural and the result of retail investors acting on emotion, and wishing to realize gains from late 2011 -early 2012. The volume traded during the last couple weeks doesn't support the drop in prices, it's typical retail investor herd movement.

Also as a point of interest.. if you recall a while back I posted the VIX and mentioned how I thought a rather severe correction could take place in the near future.. should have taken my own advice lol... though having said that the VIX has really only jumped from 14 to 20 in the last couple weeks... it was at 50 in October 2011. It's not nearly as volatile as it seems.. you just have to look past the price. Probably a great time to buy IMO.

[will068]

My dad's a realtor. He always has the customer's best intention and treats the purchase like an investment. I don't know how many times he has to sway the customer away into not buying certain homes because they were overpriced based on his own valuation.

However, a lot of what what is stated here is true about many realtors and he complains about them as well. These individuals try to make every buck off their clients and lies to them just to get them signed (e.g. I can sell your house for X amount higher than the market price - fully knowing that it is impossible). There were a couple of realtors who would attempt to poach clients from him by convincing them that they can sell the house a lot higher than what it's worth