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Old 05-17-2008, 09:58 PM   #876
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wouwou:

I agree, gold in the high 800's doesn't make sense w/ inflation and the devaluation of the dollar. KGC and GG are down almost 15% from earlier this month... despite record revenue? Funny.

Since you're into CFA this pretty young guy does alot of analysis on gold prices / us.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Lee/dec202007.html

http://www.cambridgehouse.ca/ch_jlee.html - he's already a CFA charterholder and works dt...friend knows him I believe. Take any research w/ a grain of salt too of course.
He runs this web-portal:
http://www.goldmau.com/
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Old 05-18-2008, 07:21 PM   #877
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what do u guys think about uranium one, im thinking about putting in some coin
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Old 05-18-2008, 09:43 PM   #878
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Isnt the price of uranium droping?
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Old 05-18-2008, 11:12 PM   #879
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Anyone notice that Dow is getting close to 13,000 again (last time when Dow is 13,000, it is around Jan. 3, 2008)?

Even though US is in a recession, it looks like the stock market doesn't even have an effect from it. It's just not right here.
If anyone read the news or even travel to US, US is still in a deep hole. Foreclosure and unemployment rates are still going up. People are scrambling for cash to pay their bills. If you add the high energy/fuel cost to the equation, US economy should be getting worst. US housing crises is far from over, it will takes at least 12-18 months to recover. Government's stimulus checks won't help much. It might show some signs of recovering, but it's only short-term gains.

My prediction is that US market will test new lows (around 11740 to 12250) before showing sign of recovery in the last quarter of 2008. Also, I think Gold will re-test their new high at $1,030 and oil will be up to $138 in couple months. Oil is due for correction (anywhere from 8-12%), but it will pop back up as people see that as an opportunity to buy oil.

One word to keep in mind - "INFLATION"! ... US has to deal with it sooner or later!

Feel free to leave any comments. Since that's what I am thinking over the past few weeks. I might be wrong, but I got into Gold middle of last week. Still waiting for a good entry point for oil.
Apple (AAPL) is due for a correction. Just wait until Apple releases the new iPhone in early June, the stock will come down to approx $165-170.

Last edited by McDick; 05-18-2008 at 11:33 PM.
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Old 05-22-2008, 08:05 AM   #880
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Oil/Gas at new highs of 135+ should wake people up... summer's not even in full swing yet!

I have to agree with McDick here... the essentials : transportation (airline/gas), food, fertilizer are at an all time high. (POT is at $200/share from 60!) Longterm wise, monetary system can't keep up with all this rising commodity. Printing money won't help with the growing deficit... M3 figures aren't even being released anymore. (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm)

Keep in mind the gov can print money like paper. Its a frightening thought!

Golds at 135, those who listened to McDick last week wouldve had a nice gain yesterday!
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Old 05-22-2008, 08:30 AM   #881
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I got into Gold roughly 2 weeks ago and took profit yesterday and today

Nice quick 15%, I am gonna wait till Gold to correct itself to high 800s a little bit before going in again. Also if anyone is going for gold stocks, make sure whatever you pick did not play the hedge card.

As for Oil, I am too busy right now to see which oil company hedged.
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Old 05-22-2008, 09:05 AM   #882
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Oh I have been meaning to post this:

Get some health care stock if you have some cash lying around. WB has quite a position in 2 of them, and he just backed Obama on Monday despite of that.

And most of them have taken quite a beating, mostly down 40%+ since last year, good time to get some.

dd of course. I got in UNH and right now is sitting on 5%+
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Old 05-22-2008, 05:22 PM   #883
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Oil/Gas at new highs of 135+ should wake people up... summer's not even in full swing yet!

I have to agree with McDick here... the essentials : transportation (airline/gas), food, fertilizer are at an all time high. (POT is at $200/share from 60!) Longterm wise, monetary system can't keep up with all this rising commodity. Printing money won't help with the growing deficit... M3 figures aren't even being released anymore. (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm)

Keep in mind the gov can print money like paper. Its a frightening thought!

Golds at 135, those who listened to McDick last week wouldve had a nice gain yesterday!
Yes, government can print as much money as they want (which is very scary). From my point of view, stimulus package is pretty much useless! I think it actually do more harms than goods! People will use that money to pay off their mortgage and bills instead of spending it to save the economy! But that will push inflation even higher causing the oil and gold rising big time!
If you travel to the states, most homeowners are suffering! Couple thousands will help them to get by their mortgage payment for a month or so. People have to go out there and see what is really happening down at the states. Don't just watch CNBC and buy stocks based on their comments. Listen to what most analysis said, and think about it on your own.
Gold is a good play for 2008, especially when nobody talks about it right now. It's a good time to buy gold! One more thing, don't think oil as a bubble about to burst, most investors used oil to hedge the weak US dollars.

Apple is looking good, but wait for a pullback after the iphone launch. Keep in mind, Apple sold out of iphone for a month by the time new iphone releases. It will hurt their revenue for this quarter earning.
Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) is very good long term investment! Buy and Hold! I got Mastercard at $100 in January 2007 and hold on to it since. Remember, we used credit card much more than we used to. They are earning pennies on every dollar we used and they have zero risk! Banks are the one who responsible for late credit card payments! Also, they are 'International', when US is in a slump, they are growing in some other countries like China, India, Europe, South America.

I have said enough.. I hope my comments help. Remember.. "INFLATION", "INFLATION", "INFLATION" = Oil UP, Gold UP!
US is really in a deep shit this time.

Last edited by McDick; 05-22-2008 at 05:24 PM.
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Old 05-22-2008, 05:32 PM   #884
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When you say buy gold, are you referring to gold stock, or ........... I ask the bank teller about gold purchase?
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Old 06-04-2008, 12:21 PM   #885
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Loaded up some BBD.B early this week at $6.40 & 6.49 for a long term play. IMO looking for a $9 target.
Close at $8.90 today, announced strong 1st quarter results & dividends again. Heavy instituitional buying in the last week and revised targets to $13. I'm hearing orders of more aircraft from China.

Anyone see PON today, crazy.

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Old 06-06-2008, 12:17 PM   #886
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PON just keeps on going, closed at $2.55. Potash and coal are the flavors right now, taking a flyer on GM on the venture, got in at .21 a couple days ago, closed at .24, waiting on coal permit approval, when that comes back should see a decent pop.
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Old 06-06-2008, 12:43 PM   #887
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Sad sad day for the market!!
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Old 06-06-2008, 01:21 PM   #888
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I am just happy I was too busy to do any research the past 2 weeks and got out.
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Old 06-06-2008, 01:58 PM   #889
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Close at $8.90 today, announced strong 1st quarter results & dividends again. Heavy instituitional buying in the last week and revised targets to $13. I'm hearing orders of more aircraft from China.

Anyone see PON today, crazy.
BBD is under the Aerospace & Defense Industry. The stochastics and macd's look good for Bombardier since mid May. Big money (fund managers) got out of Aerospace & Defense Industry by 20% in the last week. So its kinda weird that BBD went up this high. Keep in mind that BBD is heavily subsidized by government $$. It's the only reason why their fundamentals look ok.
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Old 06-07-2008, 04:55 AM   #890
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Sad sad day for the market!!
I love the market.....
my stocks are moving up big time....
I got MDR (hit another 52-wk high) and some other Gold stocks like GG & ABX
Those are big-cap stocks too... not risky pennies stocks..
If you think our gas-price is being too high, use some of your money to hedge the oil by buying oil service stocks... you get nice returns if the oil price still up there. You can then use the profit at the pump... very simple.

The market moves up and down that there are easy money to make...
I did short AAPL during Friday at $189.07... and MA at $301.61.... I expect AAPL will drop another 2-3% on Monday after the iPhone releases.

Oil fights back as expected.... any dips in oil price will be a buying opportunity.... oil and inflation aren't coming down... US economy is still shitty... don't let CNBC washes your brain...

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Old 06-09-2008, 06:52 AM   #891
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PON just keeps on going, closed at $2.55. Potash and coal are the flavors right now, taking a flyer on GM on the venture, got in at .21 a couple days ago, closed at .24, waiting on coal permit approval, when that comes back should see a decent pop.

Took some profits on GM at .29 this morning. Bought back at .26
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Old 06-09-2008, 07:24 AM   #892
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damn IPI missed that shit last week
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Old 06-09-2008, 08:46 AM   #893
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damn IPI missed that shit last week
It was funny to see IPI fly all over the board in their first IPO showing. Now their flying when the earnings came out.
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Old 06-09-2008, 04:56 PM   #894
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The market moves up and down that there are easy money to make...
I did short AAPL during Friday at $189.07... and MA at $301.61.... I expect AAPL will drop another 2-3% on Monday after the iPhone releases.
appl did drop today after iphone announcement. care to share how you predicted the future? your reasoning? thanks. i woulda thought appl goes up. this is probably why i dont have stocks

amazing..
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Old 06-09-2008, 05:27 PM   #895
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appl did drop today after iphone announcement. care to share how you predicted the future? your reasoning? thanks. i woulda thought appl goes up. this is probably why i dont have stocks

amazing..
buy on the rumour.. sell on the news

new apple iphone 3g wasn't better than expected. same 2mp camera, just added 3g+gps. disappointment.

Also was a down day for tech stocks on the nasdaq.
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Old 06-09-2008, 06:45 PM   #896
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appl did drop today after iphone announcement. care to share how you predicted the future? your reasoning? thanks. i woulda thought appl goes up. this is probably why i dont have stocks

amazing..
Not just typical "buy on the rumour.. sell on the news".... even if the new iphone "WOW" the market, it will sell off no matter what!!! If you look at Apple run up from $120 to nearly $190 in 3 months without any BIG news (only those signing new phone carriers around the world, which is EXPECTED)... that's really a HYPE from the new iphone product.
IThis happened on every single conference they are having over the past few years...
The "iphone" run up happened weeks before... from $160 to high $180... that's the run up. NEVER NEVER bet on Apple on the earning calls and new product introduction. You never know what will happen, especially when stock markets are controlled by "big guys with billions of dollars"...
** One thing to really consider about Apple's earning for this quarter... they didn't not sell any iphone over the past 2 months.... That's will hurt their earning number for this quarter badly!! I am taking a WILD GUESS that Apple might hit $160 (or even try $150ish) before September.. if it really did happened... buy all you can.. cause the new iphone will be selling like hot cakes around the world!!

I covered my APPLE shorts at $177.68 this morning. $12/shares profit over the past couple days is pretty good for me. I have no idea which way Apple shares are heading to in coming weeks, since the new phone won't come out until July 11. So, it will be another month for Apple to have ZERO income from iphone sales! hmmmmmmm... Interesting!

Also, I covered MA (Mastercard) this morning at $279.21 and bought the shares back $279.88. Mastercard had their correction from $320 to $276.41 (today), that's almost 15% correction. To me, it's a good entry point to buy. I am looking for a quick run-up to over $310 over this week or so.. if not, I'll just add more shares to my MasterCard retirement funding.

If you need my help on any big-cap NYSE or Nasdaq stocks... give me a shout! I'll give you my view at the stock... BUT don't ask me financial or airlines stocks... I never pay any attention to them at all in my life. They belong to "High Risks with Very Little Return" stocks...

MDR is still pretty good to me.. up 5 days in the row, even the day when NYSE drops over 300 points.. and hitting new highs everyday with strong volume..
Also, you might want to look into FWLT & FLR... all of them are very safe bet as the oil price remains high...
I am trading gold stocks as well "GG" and "ABX"... I am predicting gold will hit $1000 again this year (hopefully before September)... IF it doesn't, sell Gold in September as US will hike interest rate to fight inflation! Rates go up, Gold will come down.

Last edited by McDick; 06-09-2008 at 07:03 PM.
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Old 06-10-2008, 01:19 PM   #897
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thanks

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Took some profits on GM at .29 this morning. Bought back at .26
Got in a few thousand shares at .22, great buy imo. Thanks for the tips
7seven. Keep em coming =)

Wish i got into PON its flying high. hasnt stopped since the NR of their second permit.
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Old 06-10-2008, 03:16 PM   #898
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Not just typical "buy on the rumour.. sell on the news".... even if the new iphone "WOW" the market, it will sell off no matter what!!! If you look at Apple run up from $120 to nearly $190 in 3 months without any BIG news (only those signing new phone carriers around the world, which is EXPECTED)... that's really a HYPE from the new iphone product.
IThis happened on every single conference they are having over the past few years...
The "iphone" run up happened weeks before... from $160 to high $180... that's the run up. NEVER NEVER bet on Apple on the earning calls and new product introduction. You never know what will happen, especially when stock markets are controlled by "big guys with billions of dollars"...
** One thing to really consider about Apple's earning for this quarter... they didn't not sell any iphone over the past 2 months.... That's will hurt their earning number for this quarter badly!! I am taking a WILD GUESS that Apple might hit $160 (or even try $150ish) before September.. if it really did happened... buy all you can.. cause the new iphone will be selling like hot cakes around the world!!

I covered my APPLE shorts at $177.68 this morning. $12/shares profit over the past couple days is pretty good for me. I have no idea which way Apple shares are heading to in coming weeks, since the new phone won't come out until July 11. So, it will be another month for Apple to have ZERO income from iphone sales! hmmmmmmm... Interesting!

Also, I covered MA (Mastercard) this morning at $279.21 and bought the shares back $279.88. Mastercard had their correction from $320 to $276.41 (today), that's almost 15% correction. To me, it's a good entry point to buy. I am looking for a quick run-up to over $310 over this week or so.. if not, I'll just add more shares to my MasterCard retirement funding.

If you need my help on any big-cap NYSE or Nasdaq stocks... give me a shout! I'll give you my view at the stock... BUT don't ask me financial or airlines stocks... I never pay any attention to them at all in my life. They belong to "High Risks with Very Little Return" stocks...

MDR is still pretty good to me.. up 5 days in the row, even the day when NYSE drops over 300 points.. and hitting new highs everyday with strong volume..
Also, you might want to look into FWLT & FLR... all of them are very safe bet as the oil price remains high...
I am trading gold stocks as well "GG" and "ABX"... I am predicting gold will hit $1000 again this year (hopefully before September)... IF it doesn't, sell Gold in September as US will hike interest rate to fight inflation! Rates go up, Gold will come down.
Keep in mind that Iphone was not the driving factor that AAPL beat expectation last quarter, but Mac.

The lack of Iphone supply will hit the bottom line for sure, but it's not going to be a major issue imo.

On the other hand, $199 is cut throat price even with contract. I can see serious price competition from Nokia, SE and most importantly, RIMM.

It really depends on whether the corprate side bites the Iphone idea or not. If they do, bye bye RIMM.
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Old 06-10-2008, 03:21 PM   #899
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BTW, that's your take on GG?

I bought at 35, sold at 43. I am tempted to get in again after the adjustment these 2 weeks. Dividends and no hedge = win.

IMO last week's one day $10 dolalr surge on oil future was a market player's reaction from the drop, with the news today(Increased daily production, lower demand forecase), I expect (and hope) the oil future retreat back to $115 level before going up again.

Future has become a speculative tool instead of a hedge tool, which made it very difficult to do trend analyze, sadly.
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Old 06-10-2008, 08:32 PM   #900
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Consumer price index friday 5:30 am PST... black friday's the shorter's dream day
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