STOCK MARKET Thread

[sonick]

Hmm market trending up yesterday and opening today... Time to buy in?

[Razor Ramon HG]

Originally Posted by sonick

Hmm market trending up yesterday and opening today... Time to buy in?

I feel like it's a bull trap.

COVID cases in the USA are going to skyrocket next week (they're going to be the leader in "reported" cases by end of day tomorrow) and March's unemployment numbers are coming out April 3. American hospitals are being overloaded already.

I'm tempted to buy into some stocks, but I'm holding cash now and waiting for things to stabilize a little bit. Volatility is still reasonably high.

[HonestTea]

None of this shit makes sense for market to bounce like this.

[blkgsr]

ya i don't understand the jump yesterday and today, could someone maybe try to shed some light? is it government promise of money?

i just see so much more pain coming from this that i can understand why the outlook on the market would be any better.

[Teriyaki]

Market wanted any sort of good news to give itself a rally. Speculative trading. Nothing is based on principals anymore ugh. Definitely not the bottom. It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better as more companies actually try to weather the storm by laying off staff, cutting off appendages, going into bankruptcy protection etc in the months ahead.

[unit]

you guys are buying in after this bull run? i'm still feeling like there's a lot of hurt left

[Hondaracer]

Few analysts I follow are saying they are keeping an even closer eye on oil because generally the S&P is tied fairly tightly to oil, if oil takes a nose dive here they said the S&P is likely to follow

[DragonChi]

2,000,000,000,000

That is the amount of stimulus spending the US Government has passed. I will let you come to your own conclusions.

Roughly 10% of US GDP. Which would mean, if the entire country shutdown, it would equate to 1.2 months of no economic activity. The question is, how long will social isolation last?

[lowside67]

When you consider that Canada basically positioned a 1% of GDP stimulus package and most of our economists consider that to be a meaningful change, the idea of a 10% of GDP stimulus in the US is totally insane. While it's a huge shot in the arm, the government can't really pay for that so the question is what long term/knock on effects are going to come out of the size of this.

-Mark

[DragonChi]

Typical things that come from uncontrolled printing of money. Inflation. I wouldn't be surprised to see CAD at parity with USD in a few years. According to my crystal ball.

[threezero]

I wondering which part of the graph we are on.

WSJ just called this the shortest bear market ever

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by DragonChi

Typical things that come from uncontrolled printing of money. Inflation. I wouldn't be surprised to see CAD at parity with USD in a few years. According to my crystal ball.

Google "QE news"... everyone is printing... the inflationary effect would cancel each other out.

And in order for CAD to be back to parity, oil must be at $200 a barrel. At the directions Russia and Saudis are taking, not gonna happen.

[DragonChi]

If the cost of a Mcdonalds meal costs 15 dollars in the next five years, current price $9.29 CAD for a Big Mac meal. You heard it here first.
That is, domestic inflation.
Otherwise, I was completely wrong. Which is in the realm of possibilities.

Our dollar (CAD) vs USD, to be at parity, was based on the devaluing of USD due to the 2T stimulus package. I assume that the 200 dollar oil price was based on our energy sector increasing the value of the loonie. Which is also true.

[blkgsr]

and red again this morning

except for ACB lol go baby go

[corollagtSr5]

So buy back in late spring when the coronavirus starts to burn out and the economy starts to rebound?

[DragonChi]

I don't think anyone on this planet can say what will happen in the next few months. Governments are really trying to combat an economic slowdown with a lot of what they have in their toolbox, that I can say. How effective it will be, I have no idea.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by corollagtSr5

So buy back in late spring when the coronavirus starts to burn out and the economy starts to rebound?

I honestly don't think we'd be at the bottom of this any time soon.

It's March (Q1) and going into Q2 now. And we still haven't flattened the curve.

Expect at least until August as we have a clear view of the financial impacts of the virus on the market. (After all Q2 financial reports) I think if you make your investment by then, it wouldn't be too late.

[6793026]

IF canada all of a sudden become the next Taiwan... do we expect the market to be all normal.

Yeah, retail might start, hot servers will work at Cactus again but the other 80% of the big businesses eg// Cisco / Dell / Ballard / Lululemon / film (still 60% USA/ 50% china) / GM / Ford are STILL going to be in the shitters...

so what if canada is booming... we are a FOOKING rounding error compared to USA and USA's # is only a fraction of China... which is why I think US is the ultimate one making it shit for everyone.

[chinook79]

Originally Posted by 6793026

IF canada all of a sudden become the next Taiwan... do we expect the market to be all normal.

Yeah, retail might start, hot servers will work at Cactus again but the other 80% of the big businesses eg// Cisco / Dell / Ballard / Lululemon / film (still 60% USA/ 50% china) / GM / Ford are STILL going to be in the shitters...

so what if canada is booming... we are a FOOKING rounding error compared to USA and USA's # is only a fraction of China... which is why I think US is the ultimate one making it shit for everyone.

If what you mean by next Taiwan as us being successful in fending off virus, you are in dream world. Doctors expects that there are at least 3000+ COVID19 cases in BC alone considering that many have not been tested. That's one every 1600 people in BC. No nation on earth can contain this virus that's already spread around general public this much. The only hope we have is that we pull off what happened in Wuhan: Everyone isolate themselves and only go out when absolutely necessary with everyone wearing masks to reduce chance of spread. This isn't happening obviously and it will take at least until May-June before we even have slightest chance of fending off this outbreak.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by 6793026

IF canada all of a sudden become the next Taiwan... do we expect the market to be all normal.

Yeah, retail might start, hot servers will work at Cactus again but the other 80% of the big businesses eg// Cisco / Dell / Ballard / Lululemon / film (still 60% USA/ 50% china) / GM / Ford are STILL going to be in the shitters...

so what if canada is booming... we are a FOOKING rounding error compared to USA and USA's # is only a fraction of China... which is why I think US is the ultimate one making it shit for everyone.

This is my view while doing research for commercial RE, but I think the general idea applies to both.

If we are lucky, BC will be able to contain it in another month or two. Meaning that we will stop the spread, and only get a minimal amount of cases. This is based on continued social distancing and semi-lockdown as we have today to continue.

But then we have to deal with 2 things:

1. Aftermath - So we have layoffs left and right, up and down. Businesses who just spent money/effort to layoff their employees aren't just going to take everyone back at once and go back to 100% as before right off the bat. (Reasoning later) Unemployeement would remain high for a while or at least pay wouldn't be good for a while as business would try to be conservative and only spend what they need to until the market recovers. People or businesses make the decisions based on past experience and future expectations. If they aren't being optimistic about the future, chances of making expenses (hence economic activities) are low.

2. China Post-Pandemic Dilemma - I call it a dilemma because that's what it is now. But a more accurate term IMHO is TRAP. China started the return to work on CCP's schedule with little scientific fundamental that the pandemic is under control. This was because it couldn't afford to keep the lockdown further. Non-salary workers, which consist a huge number of basic level labour in China would literally starve if they don't start working. Their saving (if any) would only keep them so long. And China had 2 choices, either start paying out (a la US/CA/EU) or restart the economy... else they might face social unrest (the very last thing CCP wants). So they chose the later. Since they can control the information flow so well, should the epidemic get out of control again, outside of China would only know as much as CCP would let. And the fact that CCP really gives a rat ass about the wellbeing of its people.
Okok... it might start sounding too conspiracist, let's get back to the dilemma part. They needed to get people to work or else start paying. They put people back to work. They could start work on some leftover orders from before the CNY. But the problem is... China, being the "World Factory"... actually need, you know, the World to produce (raw materials/components)/consume in order to keep this factory going. With US/CA/EU/you name it all in deep shit trying to contain the virus, there is no demand for China's production.
Yes, China is the second largest economy in the world, but at a GDP per capita of 1/5 of US, there's only so much they can consume when their production capacity was designed to fulfill world demand. So China now is in a bad spot where they are back to near original capacity, with little to no order to produce, not to mention some products that require foreign components might get delayed as the wait for those. And I think this is going to cost China greatly. They'd probably been better off handing out some money for people who absolutely need them and only allow return to work for industries that actually have a demand (essentials).

In the end, I think Canada needs to consider those 2 points should we get the pandemic under control a la Taiwan. At the very least, we have to wait until US recovers, as we export mostly to US.

[6793026]

chinook79: No way Canada will be like Taiwan to fend off the virus ( i shouldn't even use fend off), they were able to keep track. Sorry if i gave the wrong impression.

Like what Hehe said, (such a great perspective BTW), what are they going to do with all the production.... Who the fuck will place any orders.... everything depends on US. But you're right... getting them back to work and even if all of china is under COVID19 infection, it's still 'contained' within their own population.

US versus China... US will lose.. NOT the economy, but their inability to hide news. Right now, we are thinking "oh wow, horizon like Wuhan is possible." Italy + Spain is waiting to remove the lock down, false hope to say the least.

When you're a kid, if you're having a tough time, mom and and gives you extra pocket money / allowance (say $100 / month, they give you another $50 bucks. heck maybe double your allowance which is EXTREMELY rare...

CDN gov't right now are giving away 3 months of support.... which just means this is going to be a solid 3 months and then another 3 mths until the economy picks back up 80%.

[DragonChi]

The Stockdale Paradox
In a business book by James C. Collins called Good to Great, Collins writes about a conversation he had with Stockdale regarding his coping strategy during his period in the Vietnamese POW camp.[20]

I never lost faith in the end of the story, I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not trade.[21]

When Collins asked who didn't make it out of Vietnam, Stockdale replied:

Oh, that's easy, the optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, 'We're going to be out by Christmas.' And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they'd say, 'We're going to be out by Easter.' And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart.[21]

Stockdale then added:

This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.[21]

Witnessing this philosophy of duality, Collins went on to describe it as the Stockdale Paradox.

[subordinate]

markets effed

[UnknownJinX]

Originally Posted by chinook79

If what you mean by next Taiwan as us being successful in fending off virus, you are in dream world. Doctors expects that there are at least 3000+ COVID19 cases in BC alone considering that many have not been tested. That's one every 1600 people in BC. No nation on earth can contain this virus that's already spread around general public this much. The only hope we have is that we pull off what happened in Wuhan: Everyone isolate themselves and only go out when absolutely necessary with everyone wearing masks to reduce chance of spread. This isn't happening obviously and it will take at least until May-June before we even have slightest chance of fending off this outbreak.

Or you know, hopefully produce enough masks and testing kits so you can isolate the sick and keep the healthy healthy and they can start doing things. Isolating everyone for that long isn't sustainable.

And they did more than what you described in Wuhan... You like having anyone's door welded shut?

The graph for new daily cases in Canada looks a bit managed now, but I take it with a grain of salt due to the testing capacity.

Also, I would expect the virus being a bigger issue with spread in Vancouver than, say, Fort Saint John due to the population density.

[donk.]

Im sure glad i sold all my stocks 6 months ago.