STOCK MARKET Thread

[mikemhg]

Originally Posted by SiRV

I would say these mortgage things are pretty risky - the best thing to do now is double - down on these super low cost ETF's right now, super bargain, super safe and awesome time to buy

Such as? Legitimately curious here.

[lowside67]

Originally Posted by instantneedles

They are called ginkgo.

I’m currently starting out investing, and 100% of my investments are with a robo advisor on wealthsimple. However, everything is dropping right now, so I’m looking at other alternatives like this.

Are MICs good for beginner investors?

These are very obscure investments - they are not traded on a public market, they can choose at their own discretion to not return your capital until they decide they'd like to, etc. They are also not regulated nearly as heavily as most mainstream financial investments.

Personally I don't think that a new investor has any business with this kind of niche product, but that's just my opinion. If there was an ever a use case for them, it's to diversify a significant mainstream portfolio into alternatives, but until you have the core, it's just not worth it.

-Mark

[PeanutButter]

Originally Posted by instantneedles

Thanks so much for the info!

They are called ginkgo.

Their pamphlet says they have a 65% LTV in BC and 69.75% LTV overall across 5 provinces. Also, 79.8% are first mortgages and 20.2% non-first mortgages.

I’m currently starting out investing, and 100% of my investments are with a robo advisor on wealthsimple. However, everything is dropping right now, so I’m looking at other alternatives like this.

Are MICs good for beginner investors?

Their LTV seems high to me. There are MIC's out there with an average LTV closer to 60%.

MIC's aren't typical for beginner investors as they are very nuanced. You have to take time to understand what they are. If anything, add 5% to your portfolio if you really want them inside your portfolio.

I know it's boring, but just buying VFV.TO is probably the way to go. Or VGRO might be the better "diversified" play.

[SiRV]

Originally Posted by mikemhg

Such as? Legitimately curious here.

VEQT
VGRO

Globally diversified stocks that cover every market in the world. No risk, slow gains of approx 5-7% yearly, but compounded over our careers will make us multi-millionaires by the time we are retired.


Alternatively, if you want to do country specific investments (USA), you could consider: VFV, VTI

[whitev70r]

Elon Musk getting cold feet with Twitter ... ironically, announced on ... Twitter

Twitter

[mikemhg]

Originally Posted by SiRV

VEQT
VGRO

Globally diversified stocks that cover every market in the world. No risk, slow gains of approx 5-7% yearly, but compounded over our careers will make us multi-millionaires by the time we are retired.


Alternatively, if you want to do country specific investments (USA), you could consider: VFV, VTI

Funny you mentioned VEQT, I recently threw a chunk of my RRSP into that fund, a few months back.

[mikemhg]

Originally Posted by whitev70r

Elon Musk getting cold feet with Twitter ... ironically, announced on ... Twitter

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1525049369552048129

Well seeing as TSLA stock dropped a quarter of its value since the announcement, no surprise there.

I don't know how people can take this guy seriously.

He's a rich super-troll, I highly doubt he had any intentions of fully going through the purchase of Twitter. We'll see how this unfolds.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by mikemhg

Well seeing as TSLA stock dropped a quarter of its value since the announcement, no surprise there.

I don't know how people can take this guy seriously.

He's a rich super-troll, I highly doubt he had any intentions of fully going through the purchase of Twitter. We'll see how this unfolds.

Bahaha. If you are not used to volatility, TSLA is not for you. There's an equal part of people who believe in it and the other part who are so convicted that TSLA is worth nothing that they keep shorting it even after losing tens of billions within the span of 2 years.

This is what creates such a movement. I mean, it's a mega-cap company that trades like a penny stock, where you get + or - 5% on a weekly basis with little to no news.

But if I learned anything these years investing, it's don't let emotions or personal feelings cloud your judgment+Look at what they are doing, not what they (or other people) are saying.

I still regret to this day that I stopped investing in AAPL because Tim Cook took over. I was such a Jobs fans that I didn't believe that Cook could do a good job. I was wrong. I let my personal feelings got in the way despite all figures pointing otherwise.

I was a Musk fans... well, not so much as a fans, but rather I think he's got a leadership style that I admire as an entrepreneur. But I didn't invest in TSLA because people were saying so many things about him and TSLA. I was wrong. It wasn't until I got my own Model 3 that I was convinced that this is the future of automotive and only by then I started buying TSLA.

As for TWTR deal, Musk will follow through, but as with everything in life, it comes down to $$$. It's more about how Musk can convince all the major investors going with him on the deal to stick to it despite all the latest developments. The pause, I believe, is to address some of the major investors. But he would eventually pull through as if there's one thing Elon Musk is good at, it's to get funding for what he wants to do. This ability is what made Tesla and SpaceX today.

As Peter Thiel has famously said: never bet against Elon Musk.

[Mr.Money]

what's the perfect gamble right now


"buy low"... yes but when is the real question.


hearing people completely cut their losses cause they never thought a crash would be taken this huge..


almost sounds like a mad man to buy in on the dip. SOON.

[GIZZ]

Anybody else buying today?

This looks like a good time for me to get out of canadian scam stocks. They have already dropped so much but haven't been hurt this week. If I can find a buyer.

[Euro7r]

When I thought it's dipped enough, dips even further after buying more lol. Can't time this shit haha

[PeanutButter]

If this market dips even further, there are going to be some companies that don't make it out alive.

Peter Lynch advises that during market pullbacks, find companies with good products that have little to no debt, these companies will survive any market pull back/recession. He is quoted saying, "It's hard to go bankrupt when you have no debt!"

That being said, TSLA has $18B in cash reserves, no debt, and products that are sold out into 2023.

The macro-economic climate right now is bleak, but TSLA will make it out alive. When they do, they're going to break out and become the biggest company in the world.


On another note, it's times like these that really test your investment philosophy. It's times like these that really test how much you believe in the investments you hold. Because when you're down 50% in a company you don't believe in, those hands turn to paper, real fast.

Diamond hands only work for good companies that will survive bear markets. Can't HODL shitty companies that you don't believe, that's a recipe for disaster.

[GGnoRE]

I like how you cherry-pick one thing that Peter Lynch said and somehow use it as validation for investing in Tesla. Do you know that Peter Lynch made his riches as a fundamental, value investor, investing in companies that are undervalued by the market? Hard to say that a value investor like Buffet and Lynch would find Tesla undervalued when its already worth more than its top 5 competitors combined? (Toyota + Ford + Daimler + GM + VW)

For everyone's learning, can you share, in your view, what you see as top risks to Tesla? And, if any of those risks were to materialize, what would be the downside case for Tesla from where its valued today?

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by GGnoRE

I like how you cherry-pick one thing that Peter Lynch said and somehow use it as validation for investing in Tesla. Do you know that Peter Lynch made his riches as a fundamental, value investor, investing in companies that are undervalued by the market? Hard to say that a value investor like Buffet and Lynch would find Tesla undervalued when its already worth more than its top 5 competitors combined? (Toyota + Ford + Daimler + GM + VW)

For everyone's learning, can you share, in your view, what you see as top risks to Tesla? And, if any of those risks were to materialize, what would be the downside case for Tesla from where its valued today?

I will share my own version as a TSLA investor.

The top risk is raw material supply. With the entire market shifting to EV, important materials such as lithium, nickel... etc are going to trigger a price war in the field.

Tesla is relatively well-positioned being a pioneer in the field and it has so far shown that they are able to pass whatever increase to their customers as all the increases seem to have little to none effect in term of demand. However, long term contracts that Tesla is under would eventually come to an end and they might become a problem for margin.

Of course, with Tesla being what it is today, it can just buy out or make strategic investment into a few miners before it'd be in a position where it needs to worry about adequate supply, but it's a risk nonetheless.

Now, regarding the valuation, if you believe that EV is the future of transportation, then Tesla can totally justify its valuation. It's already making an industry-leading margin on every car sold, while legacy automakers is just starting its money-burning stage as in, they pretty much lose money on every EV sold, and is relying heavily on profits from their ICE cars to make EV. If a recession kicks in or gas price gets to a point that people start shifting to EV faster than legacy automakers can start making profit on their EVs, they can very well go bankrupt while transitioning to EV.

The hardest part is already done for Tesla. They have both convinced the market to adopt EV and reached the economy of scale. This advantage will only grow bigger as Tesla continues to be laser-focused on nothing but EV for their automobile business. The EV market for the next few years would be very much like the smartphone industry where Apple takes about 20% of the entire market, but makes 80%+ of all the profits.

Coming back to the Peter Lynch quote PB used, I don't think it's being cherry-picking. It is the least debted player in the industry (by a wide-margin) and pretty sure the only one growing at 50%+ a year. As legacy players growth stagnant, Tesla grows at a fast pace taking market shares of not just EVs, but rather the automotive industry as a whole. It had happened to the cellphone industry and it can totally repeat. Being a legacy dominant player means little when the change is revolutionary. Look at email, before Gmail came into the arena, Hotmail, AOL, Yahoo and more dominated the free email industry. Now, it's actually rare to see a free email address that isn't Gmail.

And if the macroeconomic environment makes a sudden change big enough, it could push many legacy automakers into bankruptcy or worse, they quit the transition to EV because it loses too much money and goes down the slow death spiral.

[Badhobz]

Originally Posted by Mr.Money

what's the perfect gamble right now


"buy low"... yes but when is the real question.


hearing people completely cut their losses cause they never thought a crash would be taken this huge..


almost sounds like a mad man to buy in on the dip. SOON.

im losing my shirt in the market right now. lost 1/3 of my position with Air Canada (bought in at 25). Stupid recession. It'll go back up eventually (given
how much volume there is for air traffic), but im kicking myself for not wiping out the position earlier and buying back in when i was up 25cents.

Same shit with canada goose, my wife made out like a bandit. i only made a little bit and now they've slumped into the 25-30 dollar range forever.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by PeanutButter

That being said, TSLA has $18B in cash reserves, no debt, and products that are sold out into 2023.

They have like 19.7K in current liabilities and 6k in long-term debt.

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quot.../balance-sheet

[ilovebacon]

Originally Posted by Badhobz

im losing my shirt in the market right now. lost 1/3 of my position with Air Canada (bought in at 25). Stupid recession. It'll go back up eventually (given
how much volume there is for air traffic), but im kicking myself for not wiping out the position earlier and buying back in when i was up 25cents.

Same shit with canada goose, my wife made out like a bandit. i only made a little bit and now they've slumped into the 25-30 dollar range forever.

I'm down too. Don't take it in a bad way, consider it a learning lesson. Its how you grow as an investor. Just average down your cost.

[whitev70r]

I'm so shitty at this ... literally, had I put my money in a mattress, I'd be ahead. I try to pick Covid rebound stocks like AC, Delta Air Lines, Norwegian Cruise Line, Cineplex ... etc. Airports are full, Top Gun/Maverick is big box hit ... red red red. TSLA is down 20%. Crypto is down like 40%. If it wasn't for Enbridge, a frickin gas and oil stock, I'd be looking at being homeless when I retire. Now I probably have to work till I'm 90.

[sonick]

Investment is a long term play, short term gains is just gambling. It's going to recover, it always does. Just don't look at your portfolio in the meantime.

I am choked because although I normally invest monthly into my RRSP/TFSA to dollar-cost-average, but this year I maxed out my RRSP and TFSA all at once in January before the downturn. "Time in market is better than timing the market" they say...

I will say we did luck out a bit as we had a chunk of proceeds from selling our condo when we upgraded into a house, and was lazy to set up a non-registered account to invest the rest of it and just left it sitting in our chequing account. Had I been diligent and re-invested it right away I'd be f*cked.

[whitev70r]

^ yes, I know investing is for the long haul ... just being a bit of a drama queen.

[mikemhg]

Originally Posted by whitev70r

^ yes, I know investing is for the long haul ... just being a bit of a drama queen.

You're right though to a degree.

There is something inherently wrong and flawed in that we have this system in which people are forced to throw their pension dollars within and every 10 years or so, any gains are wiped away in an instant.

This compounded by the fact that those lost gains end up in the monied hands of those that are in the "know", and are able to pull out much earlier, based off insider information.

It's very problematic, especially for those in their early to mid 50's still in the market looking to bolster their retirement with little time remaining.

My father was hosed the exact same way back in 2008, lost over $500K in his investments, 10 years before his retirement.

[lowside67]

Originally Posted by mikemhg

My father was hosed the exact same way back in 2008, lost over $500K in his investments, 10 years before his retirement.

Your dad was not "hosed" - markets go up and down, if they only ever went up, there would be no investment return, that'd simply be inflationary. If your dad put his money under a mattress for his entire working life instead of investing, then he'd be hosed. He'd have no hope of ever retiring based on those funds alone.

If your dad had $1M invested in the US S&P *right before* the biggest crash since the 1930s, he'd be down on paper to around $600k by the end of that year - not great, but literally the worst 12 months in 80 years.

However, as long as he didn't do a thing, by the end of 2012, he'd be back to $1M and by the time he retired 10 years later (beginning 2018), he'd have over $1.8M in his account. Not bad for going through the worst financial downturn in our lifetimes.

The only thing you can do wrong at a moment like this is make a rash decision. If you do nothing, it'll be fine. If you can put some more money in, you'll do even better in the long run.

-Mark

[Badhobz]

thats what im doing right now, double down on my stupidity. AC at 17 bucks a share? YES PLZ, ill sink in more of my money (like an idiot).

[lowside67]

Originally Posted by Badhobz

thats what im doing right now, double down on my stupidity. AC at 17 bucks a share? YES PLZ, ill sink in more of my money (like an idiot).

I hate airline stocks with a passion. Yes, everybody wants to go travel right now - so that's good news for AC. However, bad news includes huge upticks in fuel pricing, upwards wage pressure, delays to get pilots re-qualified to fly, etc. The airlines are incredibly tough to make money as there are such massive fixed costs and very slow delays to either ramp up or scale back.

-Mark

[whitev70r]

^ This is also on frickin Putin ... whom I hope rots in hell.

I do believe that companies Like AC will have profit updates which take place usually every 3 months, at which time, stock prices usually will reflect the upswing in business.