STOCK MARKET Thread

[blkgsr]

one of the few good buys i made during COVID was AC at like $11

I was also thinking this morning about "buying" low on my RRSP accounts, need to put money in anyways, might as well put some in while they're down to help when they come back up. happened to me right before COVID, got a little bonus at work, put it in my RRSP and BAM, everything dropped like a week later. talk about timing

[whitev70r]

Shopify does the splitz ... is that good or bad?

[Razor Ramon HG]

[68style]

It's all timing, not related to the presidency really... those memes are dumb.

Market was booming already for all of Obama's tenure after 09 crash.

That crash happened as a result of Bush times.

Just how things swing.

[Razor Ramon HG]

Yeah, I know, my buddies and I personally found it funny and wanted to share a laugh.

[Mr.Money]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...es-2022-09-01/



what do you think about buying on this dip

[Chuckz]

TD advanced dashboard finally updated!! so much better

[PeanutButter]

I couldn't help it, I just bought a few shares of TSLA today.

They missed on deliveries, but their production is a beat. I think wallstreet is overreacting. I'm a tesla/elon fan boy/permabull. So ymmv.

[PeanutButter]

Hey guys,

So I wanted to point this out to all of those who are investing in TSLA.

I'm in a unique position where I have around 100 interactions with people a week. That's a pretty common week for me. One of the things I do is if I know the person is in technology, IT, comp science, banking, finance, or pretty much any field that may be related to technology, finance, or real estate I always ask them about what their thoughts on investing in Tesla is and their opinion on Elon Musk...

I'm not even joking, everyone I ask about Tesla or Elon, they all tell me that Tesla is over-valued, the competition is coming, and Tesla's days are numbered. Elon is a scammer, pump artist, phony, etc. Some of them will say they like the brand, but they would never invest in it. Practically everyone I talk to tells me I shouldn't invest in Tesla and I shouldn't trust Elon.

I'm a pretty practical person, so I've been thinking about this a lot lately and I have to admit, I must be a fucking idiot and/or delusional to think Tesla is a good investment. Like, how can TSLA be a good investment if literally everyone i'm talking to is telling me TSLA is a bad investment? There has to be a point where I need to admit that I must be delusional.

Long story short, I think i'm delusional. For those of you here who are investing in TSLA, I really hope you're convicted in the company and you truly understand what they are doing because if you don't I think you'll be in for some serious trouble. In ten years i'll either be a millionaire or some idiot with a really bad return on investment.

[Hehe]

It's a logical fallacy. Never EVER fall into that when it comes to investment. Just because most believe one way, doesn't make it true.

If you asked most people what they thought about Enron and Nortel before they went bankrupt, most people... even their employees would say great things about them.

The things you are hearing aren't new. And certainly not exclusive to TSLA. I have friends who talk shit about AAPL from when iPhone was first announced until this very day.

In investment, never let what other people are saying influence your judgment. Instead, follow numbers, trends and prospects of a company, any company... whether it's TSLA or not.

EV is the future of transportation. And no other company on Earth is doing more about EV than Tesla. They don't need to like Elon Musk. But one needs to look what he has accomplished. Will being a pump artist develop a reusable rocket and made it work when the entire world told him it wasn't possible?

I'm heavy in TSLA, so take my comments with a huge grain of salt, but numbers don't lie.

No other car company is growing at 50% like Tesla. Heck... they would be lucky if they are even growing at all. No other car company is making a 30% margin on their EVs. They are still working on how to break even.

Something else I'm invested in, although not as heavily is lithium miner. There isn't enough lithium in the production forecast to allow every car maker to shift to EV while maintaining the same volume. And lithium production is not something that can be newly sourced overnight.

Competition are coming... yes. I will give them that. After all, if they don't come, they are doomed as many major markets will ban ICE cars within the next 10-15yrs. But how long can the competition stay in business if they can't scale fast enough?

All old-school carmakers are subsidizing their EV production with the profit their ICE cars make. With gas at or near historical highs in many places throughout North America, it's hard not to think about buying an EV for your next car, especially if your commute is long.

No car company is making EVs faster than Tesla and none of them making more money. BYD... the only one that comes close enough had a total revenue of 21.8B vs. 35.7B of Tesla, that's total (BEV, PHEV... everything) vs. just BEV... and the profit was 0.5B vs. 5.6B of Tesla.

Whenever I encounter people talking shit about my position in TSLA... I always counter with the same sentence... "Name me one EV company that's doing more than TSLA, I will sell all my TSLA shares right here, right now". The answer is always dead silence.

Look at what they do, don't listen to what they say.

[tiger_handheld]

Originally Posted by PeanutButter

Hey guys,

So I wanted to point this out to all of those who are investing in TSLA.

I'm in a unique position where I have around 100 interactions with people a week. That's a pretty common week for me. One of the things I do is if I know the person is in technology, IT, comp science, banking, finance, or pretty much any field that may be related to technology, finance, or real estate I always ask them about what their thoughts on investing in Tesla is and their opinion on Elon Musk...

I'm not even joking, everyone I ask about Tesla or Elon, they all tell me that Tesla is over-valued, the competition is coming, and Tesla's days are numbered. Elon is a scammer, pump artist, phony, etc. Some of them will say they like the brand, but they would never invest in it. Practically everyone I talk to tells me I shouldn't invest in Tesla and I shouldn't trust Elon.

I'm a pretty practical person, so I've been thinking about this a lot lately and I have to admit, I must be a fucking idiot and/or delusional to think Tesla is a good investment. Like, how can TSLA be a good investment if literally everyone i'm talking to is telling me TSLA is a bad investment? There has to be a point where I need to admit that I must be delusional.

Long story short, I think i'm delusional. For those of you here who are investing in TSLA, I really hope you're convicted in the company and you truly understand what they are doing because if you don't I think you'll be in for some serious trouble. In ten years i'll either be a millionaire or some idiot with a really bad return on investment.

You either believe in the dream or you don't because the dream is friken crazy at Tesla.

The day Elon dies, is the day Tesla will stop dreaming.

[mikemhg]

I think it's overvalued, but lets hope your investment pans out Peanut.

Elon just decided to move forward with the purchase of Twitter, if that blows up in his face it could result in bad news in investor confidence with TSLA.

[donk.]

Originally Posted by mikemhg

I think it's overvalued,

Pe ratio of 86 has entered the chat

[PeanutButter]

@hehe Peter Lynch has said, [the moment you're confident about a position is the moment you need to re-evaluate that position].

My problem and it seems like yours is that we're trying to re-evaluate our position, but it just makes our conviction stronger in TSLA.

Everything you said is true and it seems obvious to me this company is a winner, but no one else sees it. That's why I get so confused with myself. Like how is it so obvious to me and apparently you, and no one else can see it?

It's such a mind fuck. I have never been so convicted in my life before. TSLA truly is a cult and I have to be drinking the kool-aid.

That fucking guy Elon just said Semi production has now started and they are set for deliveries in December... If the Semi is what it's supposed to be, it's going to change the entire trucking industry and that's only TWO damn months away. (Semi was announced in 2017 though... so i'll believe it when I see it)

[68style]

Quesiton for Hehe, I have some small investments in Lithium as well, but curious which signs you use, it's had to find stuff that's majorly traded.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by PeanutButter

@hehe Peter Lynch has said, [the moment you're confident about a position is the moment you need to re-evaluate that position].

My problem and it seems like yours is that we're trying to re-evaluate our position, but it just makes our conviction stronger in TSLA.

Everything you said is true and it seems obvious to me this company is a winner, but no one else sees it. That's why I get so confused with myself. Like how is it so obvious to me and apparently you, and no one else can see it?

It's such a mind fuck. I have never been so convicted in my life before. TSLA truly is a cult and I have to be drinking the kool-aid.

That fucking guy Elon just said Semi production has now started and they are set for deliveries in December... If the Semi is what it's supposed to be, it's going to change the entire trucking industry and that's only TWO damn months away. (Semi was announced in 2017 though... so i'll believe it when I see it)

I question about my stock portfolio almost on a daily basis. There is one question to ask every single day about every stock:
Has the fundamentals about the company changed?

I then analyze it on both micro/macro levels.

As of right now, TSLA has no change in the fundamental value proposition. The problem is the macro environment. How do I combat this? I keep buying short term puts options as a way to hedge against my long position. Being short term, they are relatively cheap. So, if share price goes up... great. My portfolio goes up overall. And if share price do fall... instead of losing 5% a day... I'm only losing 1-2% as the puts goes up exponentially.

Then rinse and repeat. Yes, there's some cost involved. But the idea is that with a strategy like this, when stock goes up say 10%... you only gain 9% as that 1% served as insurance policy. If the stock falls 10%, then the insurance kicks in and instead of losing 10%, I lose 2-4%. And at the end of entire cycle, I'd come out with more money than if I didn't apply the hedge.

@68style I'm heavy in Albermarle (ALB). The reason is simple... they are big. Not only they are better positioned to benefit for a potential shortfall of supply, they are a lot more likely to be absorbing any short-term shocks (both positive and negative).

Disclaimer: not investment advise. Invest at your own risk. I'm just sharing what I do/think.

[PeanutButter]

@Hehe in regards to your options insurance, do you ever redeem it (as in selling the puts for profit)?

Peter Lynch says buying options insurance on positions is simply a way to lose money and Warren Buffet says the number one rule of investing is to not lose money. Lynch also says if you buy options insurance then you're essentially trying to time the market and/or your mindset is too short-term focused.

Have you thought about that and thought about if you simply used those option premiums to buy more of the stock you are insuring?

Because if you have a long-term mindset, then buying short-term puts seems counter-intuitive to your investment thesis.

[Hehe]

Yes. I buy and sell them all the time. They are all short (1mth) to very short (1wk)... and as I'm never going to excise these options, I always sell before expiration.

As for just buying actual stocks, yes. I do still cost average as opportunities present themselves. But the money needed to buy a share vs. needed to fund 1 option are usually quite far apart. It's all about allocation. I have a portion of my fund dedicated to hedge my position (hence insurance policy). It's not a huge number in the grand scheme of thing.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by donk.

Pe ratio of 86 has entered the chat

I'm too risk adverse to mess with high PE / Forward PE ratios

When you look at how much money they have to make to put themselves at the 15 - 20 range, it gets spooky.

[PeanutButter]

Originally Posted by Gerbs

I'm too risk adverse to mess with high PE / Forward PE ratios

When you look at how much money they have to make to put themselves at the 15 - 20 range, it gets spooky.

I think it's fairer to value them around the 30ish PE range as it's more of a tech company than anything, but you're right. Their PE is high if you're looking at present-day value. There's no arguing that.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by PeanutButter

I think it's fairer to value them around the 30ish PE range as it's more of a tech company than anything, but you're right. Their PE is high if you're looking at present-day value. There's no arguing that.

Yeah, but it's not even looking at presend-day, it's looking at what they need to earn in the future at a top and bottom line to represent a 30ish PE that spooks me.

Then you look at the amount of units it requires to make that sale.

[PeanutButter]

Originally Posted by Gerbs

I'm too risk adverse to mess with high PE / Forward PE ratios

When you look at how much money they have to make to put themselves at the 15 - 20 range, it gets spooky.

Based on 2023 EPS estimates and TSLA price today, their forward PE is around 35 right now.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/stat...zMABqGbI53EWiw

[68style]

Serious question, how is everyone on this page feeling about Tesla right now?

Bullish for recovery? Will Elon continue being its mouthpiece?

He’s completely fucked his reputation for the time being… I am glad I don’t have a position in Tesla but I hope it does recover.

[donk.]

I've been shorting it for a few months, it's actually the main reason I opened a short account with RBC
I'm still placing bets on it being half price at minimum within a year

[Hehe]

I'm long TSLA, but I've been buying protective puts, given the macroeconomic environment we live in. But I've mostly closed these positions the last two days and added more shares to average out my cost.

The reason is simple... I think whatever narrative that's being carried out lately against TSLA has been overplayed and overdone. It's a company with little to no debt, large enough warchest that it doesn't need to seek funding in the market when valuation is low, and it has no immediate large pending CAPEX events in the near horizon.

I'd be far more worried about traditional carmakers as they have been sustaining their transition to EV with the cashflow they generate from their ICE business. Recession is not a question of if... but rather how long. And given that pretty much all of them have 100B+ in debt (making it difficult to continue to borrow more), if their ICE business doesn't give them enough cashflow, and the CAPEX for EV transition don't stop, they might find themselves in a pretty tough shithole.

Tl;dr: fundamentally, there's nothing wrong with TSLA. Elon can be whatever he wants and it's not going to make much difference for its day-to-day operation. Of course, my opinion would be biased, but again... I think given todays' price, the risk/reward ratio is no longer enough for me to justify puts/short against TSLA and I'd recommend anyone still having a position to be extremely cautious. The short interest on TSLA is at all-time high. It requires very little to do a gamma squeeze to send price up.