Dubai is an outlier so I wouldn't say the economic recovery we had so far this year all come crashing down just because those guys defaulted on their loan. If it was China or something I'd give some weight but they had it coming all along. The tallest building, 7-Star hotel, biggest theme park in the world, and ski resort in the middle of a desert? Come on, if you want to know what an asset bubble looks like, look no further than Dubai.

yea, i heard the news last night, didn't think the market would over react like this.

hopefully i can pick more some more shares of stocks at lower costs cause of this :)

fuck, got into faz too late and lost some money on that trade. it seems to me that the market is dismissing the news; however, it being an abbreviated day, do you guys think the market will make a full reaction to the dubai news then (ie financials, markets go down even more?) or will it boil over and continue its resurgence to the upside. people seem to be buying on the dip here.

btw, anybody here still holding can.v? has made a nice move since the .3x's (thanks 7even!!), but doesn't seem to be going anywhere lately. anybody know anything about this stock?

heads up on gryphon gold corp (ggn.to)...they're set to produce 50,000oz of gold/year in roughly 6-7 months if they can get enough financing for the construction of the site. thinking it might be a good time to get in now if they actually do start producing at this site. here's the link to the article http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards...0&s=GGN&t=LIST

Just wanted to share this guy's free charts on Stockcharts

Link: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/F...30404&cmd=show[s47184904]&disp=O

He's a good chartist, for each area, i.e Gold, he'll use more than one chart to base his decision on, for example the Gold ETF's in both Canada and US.

By using more than one gauge to measure his opinion on, I think its more accurate at forecasting in a way.

If you look at the Growth Sector Bear/Bull, the MACD's have already crossed or are about to cross.

I'd be cautious at this point.

Get in these plays?


Today's price.

SRL - 1.10/share
EC - .96/share
DRI - .85/share
NDR - .20/share
CGP - .15/share

And CCJ.WT.B - Called it at .045cents, now at .085cents

-------------

FYI....Cex-v at 0.12cents currently, a shale gas play in New Brunswick, has land package near Corridor Resources, which announced vertical drilling results of about 4 mmsf/day which is really good, with horizontal drilling techniques, they should be able to recover more than 4mmsf/day.

Curious if anyone uses or has tried http://www.freestockcharts.com

I've been using them for my daily charts for a while now.

wow this is really nice for free charts.

gold drop substantial today, possible buy gold stock soon

freestockcharts is horrible for real time though. don't trade based on it. volume and candles are way off.

anybody banking on a santa claus rally this year? markets been trading sideways for a while now...

Very busy morning so far :thumbsup: CAN and VTR with more great drill results, funny thing is VTR is up over 70% while CAN is up only 5% with better results

http://www.marketwire.com/press-rele...N-1091537.html

http://www.kitco.com/pr/2522/article_12162009095638.pdf

Very nice 7seven,

I think VTR moved that much was because of their results showed clear cut straight mineralization from the top to when the drill ended. And with decent grades. Because of that, cheaper/efficient to mine.

this is another great one

http://finviz.com/

havent posted for a while be happy 2010 all

A rising tide lifts all ships, our goal is to be on that most
profitable and fundamentally sound vessle, before the tide comes so we
can outperform.. and it will
As a result, I have looked into few shipping company thus far..
which included Drys, Exm, Dsx
Now i have narrowed my pick down to two, which is Dsx and Exm
After reading this post, can you guys give me a suggestion as to which
company to choose and why?
First i will start with EXM
I thought Exm is very interesting because ytd, 9 months for 2009, the
company has neted about 258 mill with about 80million shares
outstanding . because it had a one-time sales event , so their actual
earnings for the 9 months of 2009 would be 238.8
with todays trading price of 6.28 x 80 mill shares (market cap of
502.4 mill) which gives it a PE of about 2 but if we included the
guesstimate earnings for the next Q, we would be getting a P/E of less
then 2 going forward. Exm currently has 47 carrier with the capacity
of 3.9 million dwt. The average age for these vessels are 9.4 years
old The vessel utilization rate is 96.7%
With regards to exm's financial health
Total asset 3.3billion
total Debt 1.89
with Share holders equity of 1.418 billion ( The debt to equity ratio
gave me the spooks) this was my only negative about this company
link to their 3rd q presentation
http://www.irwebpage.com/excelmariti...t_2009-3Q.html
This is where it gets attractive. The company has a market cap of
502.4 million which means its trading at 35% of not OFF equity or book
value
We can be more conservative and mark down exm's total asset by 25 %
which would be total asset of 1.980 billion minus the total debt of
1322mill , we still get shareholders equity of 585 million, which is
still below book value.
Their cash on hand atm is about 172.5m which is about 2.15 per shares
so basically, we are getting the whole company for about 4.13 per
shares
Now Lets discuss Dsx, for diana shipping,
link to Diana shipping
http://www.dianashippinginc.com/defa...id=75&langid=1
the first 9 months of 2009, Net profit was 93.9 million . Today it is
trading at 14.6 per share with 80.5 mill outstanding, with a market
cap of 1.175 billion
if we take the avg of the 9 months earnings divided by 3, and add it
out to the previos 9 months earnings which give it a guesstimate of
125 million projection for fiscal of 2009, it would be a 9.38 P/E
going forward
but From the looks of the financial statements, right of the bat, I
can see a really strong balance sheet
It has Total asset of 1.278 billions (this is where it impresses me)
Dsx is holding about 251 million in cash so which means it can pay off
almost all debts
with total debt of 307 million
which leaves share holder equity of 970.1 million with 80.5 million
shares outstanding
which gives it a 12.04 per share of equity. and its trading at 14.6
per share, so very close to book value
Diana shipping is holding 251.6 million of cash which is about 3.14
per share in cash
This company has 19 dry bulk with 2.3 million dwt of capacity with an
average vessel of about 5 years old with utilazation rate of 99.7
So now, the question is,
for exm, Better earnings, Way below book value, selling at 2 times
earning,lots of debt and a older fleet of vessles
for Dsx, way cleaner balance sheet, Younger crew of vessel, higher
utilization rate, less earnings, and more expensive company as a whole
I wont go deep in details into drys in detail because, the company is
still lossing money and the company is high on leverage but cannot
igonre the fact that it is the biggest company in the dry bulk section
and even drills oil.
So RSers, pls tell me which shipping company would make a
better investment veichle and why?
Thx again and if you feel like the way im looking at these companies
are wrong, pls feel free to correct me.
Best regards,
hollyshiit

Hi All,
I have decided to break down Drys 's operation as well since i got
time in the office, dont wanna leave you guys hanging now.
link to the q3 results
http://www.irwebpage.com/dryships/ir...t_2009-3Q.html
First, I will break down drys operation, It operates drk bulk
transportation, ultra deep water and 4 drill ships.
It has 296 million shares outstanding, and trading at 5.89 which gives
it a market cap of 1.75 billion
under contract, the company should have revenue of 599million, 671
million and 829 million for 2009,2010,2011
we will take 2010 for an example, base on the shares outstanding, we
would be getting a 2.6 times earnings for 2010 which is a PE of 2.11
and for 2011 (pls note, these are only projections)
Lets take a look into their financial statements
It has total asset of 5.4 billion of the 5.4 billion, 4.63 of that is
fixed asset, and 623 million in cash and restricted cash and about 96
million in accounts recieveable and other asselt so (about 2.08 per
share in cash)
and 2.74 billion of liability
with equity of 2.66 billion
Which means, The company at the moment is trading at 65% of book value
still relativley cheap and but not as cheap compare to EXM
If we are conservative and mark down drys current asset by 25% which
would give us 4199 of total asset with shareholder equity of 1.539
billion, a little bit over the trading price of 1.747 billion
So are these shipping companies really under value or are they value
traps?
Best regards,
hollyshiit

dryships is a joke

those shiipping companies are breaking out like a fat zit
should i wait it out or hop back in?
advise?

wondering what everybody's position is with the last 2 days registering pretty impressive gains. are you looking to take profit or are you guys gonna ride it out through 1st quarter earnings?

as for me, i think i will take a bit of money out after today on expected selling in the next 1 or 2 trading sessions.

recently, i've been putting most of my money into commodities, mainly copper related mining stocks such as lun.to, s.to, tgb and they have served me quite well; also been putting money in financials. pretty heavy into lyg and citi now. looking to ride these guys up until earnings and taking some profit here.

how is everybody else playing the market these days?

opinions appreciated. thanks :)

nice gain on lyg n c leilomo...

i took some profit off the table from the unexpected jump from the airlines...
but still holding some shares in bcs,lyg,lcc and exm
will see how the rest of the week proceed n move on from there....

cheers!

The shipping companies ride the wave of the economy. I was following start bulk and paragon shipping last year. Their fundamentals showed they never really consistently beat the previous quarters. Thus, it's been a sideways for these shipping companies for most of 2009

^Right sector at the wrong time...

lot of these dry bulk companies are trading at 2-3 times earnings

think of it like a savings account that could double you up..

i pulled out of HOU last week just before the long weekend.

oh well.