havent posted for a while be happy 2010 all
A rising tide lifts all ships, our goal is to be on that most
profitable and fundamentally sound vessle, before the tide comes so we
can outperform.. and it will
As a result, I have looked into few shipping company thus far..
which included Drys, Exm, Dsx
Now i have narrowed my pick down to two, which is Dsx and Exm
After reading this post, can you guys give me a suggestion as to which
company to choose and why?
First i will start with EXM
I thought Exm is very interesting because ytd, 9 months for 2009, the
company has neted about 258 mill with about 80million shares
outstanding . because it had a one-time sales event , so their actual
earnings for the 9 months of 2009 would be 238.8
with todays trading price of 6.28 x 80 mill shares (market cap of
502.4 mill) which gives it a PE of about 2 but if we included the
guesstimate earnings for the next Q, we would be getting a P/E of less
then 2 going forward. Exm currently has 47 carrier with the capacity
of 3.9 million dwt. The average age for these vessels are 9.4 years
old The vessel utilization rate is 96.7%
With regards to exm's financial health
Total asset 3.3billion
total Debt 1.89
with Share holders equity of 1.418 billion ( The debt to equity ratio
gave me the spooks) this was my only negative about this company
link to their 3rd q presentation
http://www.irwebpage.com/excelmariti...t_2009-3Q.html
This is where it gets attractive. The company has a market cap of
502.4 million which means its trading at 35% of not OFF equity or book
value
We can be more conservative and mark down exm's total asset by 25 %
which would be total asset of 1.980 billion minus the total debt of
1322mill , we still get shareholders equity of 585 million, which is
still below book value.
Their cash on hand atm is about 172.5m which is about 2.15 per shares
so basically, we are getting the whole company for about 4.13 per
shares
Now Lets discuss Dsx, for diana shipping,
link to Diana shipping
http://www.dianashippinginc.com/defa...id=75&langid=1
the first 9 months of 2009, Net profit was 93.9 million . Today it is
trading at 14.6 per share with 80.5 mill outstanding, with a market
cap of 1.175 billion
if we take the avg of the 9 months earnings divided by 3, and add it
out to the previos 9 months earnings which give it a guesstimate of
125 million projection for fiscal of 2009, it would be a 9.38 P/E
going forward
but From the looks of the financial statements, right of the bat, I
can see a really strong balance sheet
It has Total asset of 1.278 billions (this is where it impresses me)
Dsx is holding about 251 million in cash so which means it can pay off
almost all debts
with total debt of 307 million
which leaves share holder equity of 970.1 million with 80.5 million
shares outstanding
which gives it a 12.04 per share of equity. and its trading at 14.6
per share, so very close to book value
Diana shipping is holding 251.6 million of cash which is about 3.14
per share in cash
This company has 19 dry bulk with 2.3 million dwt of capacity with an
average vessel of about 5 years old with utilazation rate of 99.7
So now, the question is,
for exm, Better earnings, Way below book value, selling at 2 times
earning,lots of debt and a older fleet of vessles
for Dsx, way cleaner balance sheet, Younger crew of vessel, higher
utilization rate, less earnings, and more expensive company as a whole
I wont go deep in details into drys in detail because, the company is
still lossing money and the company is high on leverage but cannot
igonre the fact that it is the biggest company in the dry bulk section
and even drills oil.
So RSers, pls tell me which shipping company would make a
better investment veichle and why?
Thx again and if you feel like the way im looking at these companies
are wrong, pls feel free to correct me.
Best regards,
hollyshiit
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content and access many other special features. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
The banners on the left side and below do not show for registered users!
CAN and VTR with more great drill results, funny thing is VTR is up over 70% while CAN is up only 5% with better results
