buying condo downtown

[JeffK]

Originally Posted by VR6GTI

So your saying if you put down 60,000 a year ago on a place you should just walk away from that 60
I have been following the market alittle bit and i know prices have dropped down alot from 40-80000 depending on area and house/condo. But if you put down 60 and it drops 40-50 now and you plan to live in it for 3-10 years. The market will come back, not to the point it once was but it will come back.

Niether is a good option... those friends are fucked

look at it this way...

bob bought 2 presales with the plan of flipping them, pocketing a heafty profit, just like people have been doing for 2-3 years now.

we'll say both condos were the same price.

Purchase Price: 400,000
Presale deposit: 30,000

Now, 2 years later no one has bought Bob's assignment, and the projects are going to complete. Bob has 2 choices:

1) Take ownership and rent it out or whatever. The problem with this, is that the banks are about to bend poor Bob over...

Bob's contract price is for 400,000 less his deposit... so he owes the developer 370,000

The problem is the condo is now only worth 300,000. The bank says, sure Bob, we'll give you a mortgage, as long as you pony up another 70,000k.

Bob says 'wtf?!'

2) Bob says no way, screw this, i'm out... those bastards can keep my 30k...

Problem here is Bob signed a contract... The developer expects his money and if they want, they can sue bob's ass.

Either way, Bob's fucked.

------------

of course i'm making figures up, but you get hte idea... all these folks that bought presales hoping to flip for a quick buck can be in serious trouble if they havn't sold already.

they may be stuck with the property, and forced to complete on it. Then because the unit isn't worth as much anymore, they have to come up with even more cash for the bank to even look at them.

its not going to be pretty!!

[1.8tradoman]

wait till the november rebgv stats come out... condo speculators and flippers should be feeling a little uneasy right now. I am in Buenos Aires right now and guess what a 900 sq ft downtown condo will cost you? less than 100,000 US... just one example of how out of touch vancouver condos prices are...

[RayBot]

for one thing...if people are not willing to pay 100k US for a 900sqft condo in Buenos Aires, but people are willing to pay 400k for that in Downtown Vancouver....


that doesn't show an example of how out of touch vancouver condo prices are....its an example of how a condo is not worth 100k in Buenos Aires.

[1.8tradoman]

Originally Posted by RayBot

for one thing...if people are not willing to pay 100k US for a 900sqft condo in Buenos Aires, but people are willing to pay 400k for that in Downtown Vancouver....


that doesn't show an example of how out of touch vancouver condo prices are....its an example of how a condo is not worth 100k in Buenos Aires.

I don't get it, what are you trying to say? please explain...

[RayBot]

Its a matter of all the factors that was already brought up in this topic....

Even if the market in vancouver for condos drop lets say even 30% so that a condo that was 400k becomes worth 260k, or if it increases 100% so its worth 800k...it has nothing to do with how 'out of touch' Vancouver's real estate prices are.

Its all been mentioned:
supply vs. demand
economic perception
Local/US/foreign dollar value
desirable location
quality and cost of living

It doesn't make a difference what city in the WORLD you're in. If you put a dollar figure on each of those factors...thats what real estate will be worth in that area.
Considering that you were the one that brought up most of those points....i thought you'd probably be the first to understand.

[1.8tradoman]

Originally Posted by RayBot

Its a matter of all the factors that was already brought up in this topic....

Even if the market in vancouver for condos drop lets say even 30% so that a condo that was 400k becomes worth 260k, or if it increases 100% so its worth 800k...it has nothing to do with how 'out of touch' Vancouver's real estate prices are.

Its all been mentioned:
supply vs. demand
economic perception
Local/US/foreign dollar value
desirable location
quality and cost of living

It doesn't make a difference what city in the WORLD you're in. If you put a dollar figure on each of those factors...thats what real estate will be worth in that area.
Considering that you were the one that brought up most of those points....i thought you'd probably be the first to understand.

So what your telling me is that Vancouver condo prices are not out of touch based on measurable metrics that you have just listed: supply and demand, economic demand, income levels, etc. ?

[RayBot]

How else would a 600 sqft condo in downtown sell for 380k last year...and still sell??? Its not a price tag they put on a clearance item for kicks. People with 380k to blow on a small condo aren't all stupid.

Frankly, i enjoy living in the Greater Vancouver region for many, many reasons....so when i bought my apartment, it had nothing to do with how much i can make in 3 years. No...it had to do with the notion of me enjoying my lifestyle in vancouver for a long term.

Theres a lot of nice cities all over the world....but real estate prices are what they are in every single city in world. Who cares if a brand new apartment in the 'Paris of South America' is less than 100k?? If it was more, people wouldn't buy it, or the larger demographic of buyers can't afford it. And ultimately...the question is, do they want to live there? Obviously....if there were a lot more yes's than no's, real estate prices wouldn't be as attractive as you stated.

On top of the economy, cost of living, supply and demand, and foreign dollar value...'Desirable location' isn't necessarily a measurable metric considering its mostly subjective....but it does drive business in regards to real estate.

[1.8tradoman]

Originally Posted by RayBot

How else would a 600 sqft condo in downtown sell for 380k last year...and still sell??? Its not a price tag they put on a clearance item for kicks. People with 380k to blow on a small condo aren't all stupid.

Frankly, i enjoy living in the Greater Vancouver region for many, many reasons....so when i bought my apartment, it had nothing to do with how much i can make in 3 years. No...it had to do with the notion of me enjoying my lifestyle in vancouver for a long term.

Theres a lot of nice cities all over the world....but real estate prices are what they are in every single city in world. Who cares if a brand new apartment in the 'Paris of South America' is less than 100k?? If it was more, people wouldn't buy it, or the larger demographic of buyers can't afford it. And ultimately...the question is, do they want to live there? Obviously....if there were a lot more yes's than no's, real estate prices wouldn't be as attractive as you stated.

On top of the economy, cost of living, supply and demand, and foreign dollar value...'Desirable location' isn't necessarily a measurable metric considering its mostly subjective....but it does drive business in regards to real estate.

Actually the people that bought that $380,000 condo are stupid. November stats are out and they lost another 10% on their "property", anotherwords they just threw away their 10% deposit they put down or $38,000. If they had bought in april 2008 when this thread started they will be down 18% from the peak. So i guess if you like throwing money away keep buying those condos.

Now stupid might be a strong word, more like uneducated or MISINFORMED. Making the biggest financial decision of their lives and they have to rely mostly from the real estate agent. That's really shameful in my opinion. These guys have no incentive to tell you the consequences of a downturn. Just look at the tone of most of the comments from real estate agents on this thread. They will tell you to buy when the real estate bubble in this city is CLEARLY popping around them.

[1.8tradoman]

900 sales for the month of november... divide that by 9000 real estate agents... divide that by 2 (commission is shared between buyer and sellers agent)... smell the desperation yet?

Raybot, I think you are paid to ignore the bad news and focus on the good, I am sure that your a great guy and a good agent, i have nothing against you but there is no measurable metric that SUPPORTS the real estate prices in vancouver, especially condos.

The stats speak for themselves, prices are crashing because they are overvalued, PERIOD.

Is it a good idea to buy a condo right now Raybot? yes or no.

[RayBot]

"I know a lot of realtors that are there to take advantage of the market ride, and from experience, i know who NOT to deal with. But i am personally in it for the long haul. Meaning...my job description is to aid people to get into homes to a representation standpoint, and help people get out of their homes for whatever reason, whether its upsizing, downsizing, court-ordered, or liquifying an investment. Not to maximize the ROI of an investor."

This is what i posted in post #72. So why would i care if 900 sales between 9000 agents is supposed to affect me? Secondly, after stating this again, why would i care if property values have dropped another 10%? And lastly, if you haven't noticed by my signature, i run 1 of 2 condo sites...not because i think condos are 'thing' in real estate....its because condos aren't the easiest peices of real estate to work with, and i find myself working with condos really well.

Is it a good time to buy??
That depends:
are you sick of renting?
are you happy with the prices and mortgage payments that will support your purchase?
Is this the area you want to be living in?

Is it a good time to sell?
That depends...
This is the market value of your home today...is this what you are looking at?

If yes go around to everything....then its a good time to both buy and sell!!
These are the clients i deal on an everyday basis, not "how much do u think my property is worth in 3 years."

As much as i choose not to deal with investors...i can almost assume correctly about this about investors that have money:
Investors aren't all stupid, investors definitely know the definition of 'risk,' investors do research before they dump their money....and i am 100% sure that investors will look beyond the advice of a real estate salesman.

Before you responded, i was about to ask you, "well, can you give and objective point of view why downtown condos sold what they were in 2006?"

But it seemed that you jumped the gun answered the question before i asked it.

But all you were able to answer was that buyers are stupid, uneducated and misinformed because real estate agents are shallow??

Like...c'mon...You seemed to be the smart person in this thread, with the crystal ball, the stats on the computer and the bets with no takers. I was a lil disappointed to read something like that...i thought i would read something with a lil bit of theory mixed with intelligence, not banter.

Boy, i love revscene!!!

[1.8tradoman]

"why would i care if property values have dropped another 10%? And lastly, if you haven't noticed by my signature, i run 1 of 2 condo sites"

Your right, why would the real estate agent care if condo prices have dropped 18% since April 2008. You don't have to because you have your commission and now your client is left holding the bag. You know who does care? The poor guy that got misinformation and is now watching his asset depreciate each month.

Its been beaten to death now but "caveat emptor" really does mean what it states. Wiki it and you'll find that it relates quite well to the history of leaky condos that are built in Vancouver.

Leaky condos: a wholenother thread.

[RayBot]

Originally Posted by 1.8tradoman

You know who does care? The poor guy that got misinformation and is now watching his asset depreciate each month.

Again with the banter. Now, you're going to find yourself going around in circles, because once, again I will be quoting myself AGAIN in this thread....amusingly, one after the other....

Originally Posted by RayBot

my job description is to aid people to get into homes to a representation standpoint, and help people get out of their homes for whatever reason, whether its upsizing, downsizing, court-ordered, or liquifying an investment. Not to maximize the ROI of an investor.

Is it a good time to buy??
That depends:
are you sick of renting?
are you happy with the prices and mortgage payments that will support your purchase?
Is this the area you want to be living in?

As much as i choose not to deal with investors...i can almost assume correctly about this in regards to investors that have money:
Investors aren't all stupid, investors definitely know the definition of 'risk,' investors do research before they dump their money....and i am 100% sure that investors will look beyond the advice of a real estate salesman.

So bonus for people that find an increase in their property after they bought it. But the information that i provide for my clients (and i am sure a good portion of realtors here on rs.net do it too) is essential for the purchase of their property....not the return. Thats the definition of a representation standpoint.

Actually, that was a statement i made earlier, just reworded....but i was too lazy to quote myself again.

[civicyvr]

Good civil and valid discussion here. I am sure both 1.8 and Ray are good bros.

I've been paying rent while waiting to buy an affordable condo with no avail.

I do hope that every mofo who tried to make a quick buck instead of buying to live and artificially inflate the prices get burned hard because they freeking deserve it!

[VR6GTI]

Originally Posted by 1.8tradoman

Your right, why would the real estate agent care if condo prices have dropped 18% since April 2008. You don't have to because you have your commission and now your client is left holding the bag. You know who does care? The poor guy that got misinformation and is now watching his asset depreciate each month.

I'm not really sure why they would. You don't hear car salesman tell their customer "hey BTW I'm just being honest here by telling you that when you drive this car off the lot it will depreciate 5-10,000. Have a nice day"

[Noir]

Originally Posted by civicyvr

Good civil and valid discussion here. I am sure both 1.8 and Ray are good bros.

I've been paying rent while waiting to buy an affordable condo with no avail.

I do hope that every mofo who tried to make a quick buck instead of buying to live and artificially inflate the prices get burned hard because they freeking deserve it!

Despite what other people say, I agree with 1.8tradoman. The market will eventually correct itself so you may just get your wish eventually. Ppl like the OP who think realty as an investment will be forced to increase rent prices due to increasing costs of realty ownership to turn a profit margin.

Unfortunately, push the bar far enough and you will be putting a certain commodity out of the hands of your standard middle class people which are the legs the local economy stands on. The trend of unreasonable prices will have to discontinue as if the prices remain high or go higher, then the only people able to sustain living in this city will be that of the higher class which only makes up a small fraction of the community. Which means, its not enough to sustain the local economy and market will have to correct itself.

[1.8tradoman]

Originally Posted by Noir

Despite what other people say, I agree with 1.8tradoman. The market will eventually correct itself so you may just get your wish eventually. Ppl like the OP who think realty as an investment will be forced to increase rent prices due to increasing costs of realty ownership to turn a profit margin.

Unfortunately, push the bar far enough and you will be putting a certain commodity out of the hands of your standard middle class people which are the legs the local economy stands on. The trend of unreasonable prices will have to discontinue as if the prices remain high or go higher, then the only people able to sustain living in this city will be that of the higher class which only makes up a small fraction of the community. Which means, its not enough to sustain the local economy and market will have to correct itself.

It´s not my wish to see real estate correct, I was just commenting on the decision to buy a condo in vancouver during a time of , global recession, political instability, credit contraction, asset deflation, and more specifically real estate values around the world plummeting. This could possibly be the WORST time ever to buy a space in a concrete beehive based on every measurable "metric" that has been discussed so far. Not to harp on Raybot but he continues to suggest that YES it is a good time to buy based on these factors: quote:

Is it a good time to buy??
That depends:
are you sick of renting?
are you happy with the prices and mortgage payments that will support your purchase?
Is this the area you want to be living in?

Is it a good time to sell?
That depends...
This is the market value of your home today...is this what you are looking at?

If yes go around to everything....then its a good time to both buy and sell!!
These are the clients i deal on an everyday basis, not "how much do u think my property is worth in 3 years."

I need a whole lot more space to respond to this... TBC

[1.8tradoman]

So lets look at the factors as listed by RAybot:
he says:
Sick of renting? ok this one has been beat to death, right now you can rent a beautiful condo with granite counter tops for 50% - 60% of what it would cost you to finance one with 10% down and over 35 year amortization. For evidence just look at rental prices on craigslist and cross reference with units on the MLS. I´ve already provided an example in this thread. Every month you can put away your money that you saved in rent and wait. What about equity? Well if you bought in April 2008 (when Realtor would have bought), you´ve not only lost part your downpayment but you may owe more to the bank than the condo is worth today. (Sure you can buy it with 100% cash but what kinda of buyer are we talking about here? Average Vancouverite who buys to live in, not your specuvestor, flipper hoping to sell his unit to the next sucker.)

Are you HAPPY with the prices and mortgage payments that will SUPPORT your purchase?
They got rid of 40 year mortgages? Why? BECAUSE banks no longer have those types of mortgages insured (by CMHC) because of the significant risk involved with loaning money to people who cannot AFFORD to buy the homes that they wish to have BASED on their INCOME. They offered these types of mortgages because the normal person could not afford a standard 25 year mortgage, so to decrease the monthly payments they introduced longer (40 year) mortgages. You can google what percentage of new mortgagees took on the 40 year term last year (kinda scary). How can i be HAPPY paying a monthly mortgage payment that is almost double of what it would cost me to rent? Finally there is NO SUPPORT for that purchase! Give me an example where an average guy making a median average income can hope to buy a median average home in vancouver! Don´t tell me that everyone has parents who can lend you a large downpayment and will cosign that mortgage with you. Thats not the type of scenerio that I am referring to (although i am starting to wonder how much that happens here).

Is this the area you want to be living in? Lets infer that he is talking about vancouver.
My guess is that Raybot is talking about wanting to live in the "best place on Earth" mantra that every real estate salesman speaks about. "Toyota makes the best cars on Earth" thats what the car salesman told me too. I agree that vancouver is a wonderful place to live but what is the premium to live here? The market will tell us that in short order.

[1.8tradoman]

"If yes go around to everything....then its a good time to both buy and sell!!
These are the clients i deal on an everyday basis, not "how much do u think my property is worth in 3 years."

Your clients AREN´T interested in what their property in worth in 3 years? If this is true and I think that your telling us the truth than your clients are unimaginably naive and I hope they continue to buy as many condos as financially possible.
HOW can someone dropping minimum $400,000 NOT be interested in the future asset values of his purchase. This is one of the reasons why vancouver has formed a real estate bubble! (Perhaps the biggest bubble in North America!): Raybots clients buying real estate without regard for market fundamentals, global financial crisis, supply and demand, and future conditions.

on a side note, i am sitting in a (rosario) hostel using their computer, waiting to get on the bus back to Buenos Aires. It cost me about $10 a night. It ain´t no shangri la (which wont be built by the way) but it was a damn good deal.

[1.8tradoman]

Originally Posted by VR6GTI

I'm not really sure why they would. You don't hear car salesman tell their customer "hey BTW I'm just being honest here by telling you that when you drive this car off the lot it will depreciate 5-10,000. Have a nice day"

What you DO hear real estate saleman say is "hey don´t worry your new purchase will appreciate double digit every month!" That´s my beef.

[Z3guy]

Originally Posted by 1.8tradoman

What you DO hear real estate saleman say is "hey don´t worry your new purchase will appreciate double digit every month!" That´s my beef.

1.8tradoman, I have been reading the banter between yourself and Raybot, I have to agree with you man....your market insights are really good for 1st time home buyers or real estate speculators. I am in packaged good sales, however nothing drives me more crazy than Real Estate Agents telling there customers your exact quote.

imo, the real estate profession is a protected bogus industry. Why should agents makes 7% on the first 100K and 2.5% on the rest? What do they really do to deserve such high commission rates? Nowadays, evenone just goes on MLS.com to find property. The agent just makes phone calls with the other agent.

I will using 1% realty when I sell my house.

I am sure Realtors will have a difference of opinion.

I don't real see much difference between Realtors and boiler room stock brokers...."this stock is going to the moon"

[VR6GTI]

Originally Posted by 1.8tradoman

What you DO hear real estate saleman say is "hey don´t worry your new purchase will appreciate double digit every month!" That´s my beef.

But it was true a year ago If they are saying that now well then i can see your point

[RayBot]

Originally Posted by 1.8tradoman

What you DO hear real estate saleman say is "hey don´t worry your new purchase will appreciate double digit every month!" That´s my beef.

Your perception of Real Estate agents in general is such a stereotype. As for a very good portion that its true...theres some agents that enjoy 'what we're supposed to do.'

Today's technology has tested the careers of real estate agents to see if the internet can do everything is required in real estate. But after seeing whats required and what the internet lacks, it seems there is a need of real estate representation, whether its to represent a buyer or a seller. After 15 years of internet development, it could have been certain that all jobs in this industry would have went to zero....but its not. Z3guy said that he would be using 1% realty....fact of the matter is that he'll need professional representation for a realtor. And to tell you the truth, i am PRAYING that the internet doesn't make us extinct.

Im not a medallion agent with 3 assistants that does 40 sales a year....i'm an agent that works one-on-one with my clients from the beginning to end and does only 15 sales a year....if that. And i don't see myself working with 3 assistants, because i enjoy what i do, i do care about the integrity of my personal career as well as my personal reputation within the industry.

And comments about clients being 'unimaginably naive?' You think that everything in real estate has to revolve around profit, where in my experience, it had little to do with it. In 2008, this was the clients that i helped: a person who was looking to buy a condo for his parents so they can retire here in Vancouver, a person that needed to sell his townhouse before the bank foreclosed on their property, a family with a growing child that needed to relocate due to strata bylaws and other strata concerns,....as well as many others with scenarios like this. So really....them wondering what their property would be worth in 3 years is not their primary concern.


As i said earlier....nobody is arguing with you in regards to the direction of the real estate market. If all you wanted was a pat on the back...there you go. However...to demean the reputation of all real estate agents... i argue this everyday of my career because this is my integrity too.

[Z3guy]

Originally Posted by RayBot

Your perception of Real Estate agents in general is such a stereotype. As for a very good portion that its true...theres some agents that enjoy 'what we're supposed to do.'

Today's technology has tested the careers of real estate agents to see if the internet can do everything is required in real estate. But after seeing whats required and what the internet lacks, it seems there is a need of real estate representation, whether its to represent a buyer or a seller. After 15 years of internet development, it could have been certain that all jobs in this industry would have went to zero....but its not. Z3guy said that he would be using 1% realty....fact of the matter is that he'll need professional representation for a realtor. And to tell you the truth, i am PRAYING that the internet doesn't make us extinct.

Im not a medallion agent with 3 assistants that does 40 sales a year....i'm an agent that works one-on-one with my clients from the beginning to end and does only 15 sales a year....if that. And i don't see myself working with 3 assistants, because i enjoy what i do, i do care about the integrity of my personal career as well as my personal reputation within the industry.

And comments about clients being 'unimaginably naive?' You think that everything in real estate has to revolve around profit, where in my experience, it had little to do with it. In 2008, this was the clients that i helped: a person who was looking to buy a condo for his parents so they can retire here in Vancouver, a person that needed to sell his townhouse before the bank foreclosed on their property, a family with a growing child that needed to relocate due to strata bylaws and other strata concerns,....as well as many others with scenarios like this. So really....them wondering what their property would be worth in 3 years is not their primary concern.


As i said earlier....nobody is arguing with you in regards to the direction of the real estate market. If all you wanted was a pat on the back...there you go. However...to demean the reputation of all real estate agents... i argue this everyday of my career because this is my integrity too.

Hey Raybot, I was generalizing in my earlier comments about Realtors.....you sound like a very reputable geniune sales professional. Unfortunately, I have had bad experiences with realtors when I sold my condo downtown and my first house in Richmond. When I bought my house in Vancouver, my realtor literally spent less than 10 hrs in regards to finding my house. Everytime I saw a house on MLS, she would contact the realtor for me.....bascially for setting up house viewings and doing the paperwork...I paid her over $20K......I would like to make $2000/hr.

[1.8tradoman]

Based on the commission structure, there is absolutely no incentive for the realtor to get you a better deal. So in addition to NOT looking out for your financial interests, they do the minimum to represent you when you are making an offer. They just want the sale, I hate to stereotype but this is the fact of life in sales. However, right now your can negotiate the hell out of the commission. Agents are desperate to get any sales. I know some who will do it for even less than 1%. PM me, I can point you in the right direction (i am not an agent nor will i benefit from it).

Raybot: I am not trying to slag you or your band of brothers. I don't think I ever stated that simple sales tactics were illegal or even morally apprehensible. I only remarked on the sales tactics used by realtors to convince people to buy condos. How many times have you seen and heard "best place on earth" "now is the best time to buy!" "buy now or you will be priced out foreever" "The pride of ownership" "Good fundamentals!" "Anytime is a good time to buy!" "Guarantee appreciation!" "Why pay your landlords mortgage!" etc...

These are BUNK statements, even a backpacker in Argentina knows that.

[1.8tradoman]

Originally Posted by Z3guy

1.8tradoman, I have been reading the banter between yourself and Raybot, I have to agree with you man....your market insights are really good for 1st time home buyers or real estate speculators. I am in packaged good sales, however nothing drives me more crazy than Real Estate Agents telling there customers your exact quote.

imo, the real estate profession is a protected bogus industry. Why should agents makes 7% on the first 100K and 2.5% on the rest? What do they really do to deserve such high commission rates? Nowadays, evenone just goes on MLS.com to find property. The agent just makes phone calls with the other agent.

I will using 1% realty when I sell my house.

I am sure Realtors will have a difference of opinion.

I don't real see much difference between Realtors and boiler room stock brokers...."this stock is going to the moon"

If your looking for an agent I would look at these two guys, they run the most informative and genuine blogs about vancouver real estate, much better than the fodder that you get from a regular agent. These guys give you the real deal backed up by RESEARCH. one of them got voted best blog-georgia strait. Tons of info.

http://paul-northvancouverhomes.blogspot.com/
http://robchipman.net/blog/