BUMP this thread! great info!

I was wondering what happened to this thread. I like to see more from 1.8tradoman and Raybot both of them seem to have some good info on the market.

Nothing else to really say.
Prices seem to leveled off nicely....... People arent making mad money in real estate anymore. For the ones that did. Good for them..
And the prediction of the sky falling 30-40% has not happened or happened yet.

Bump.... I haven't been on this board for a while now and I'm just curious what 1.8's thoughts are about the market now. I'm sure everyone can see that the market has not dropped to 2001 levels and has even met or surpassed the 2008 highs now. I just feel sorry for anyone that wanted to buy and actually thought that 1.8 is "god."

He sure was entertaining at best...

At the time of his rant, there were some really good deals on homes.
Hopefully, it didnt effect the people who really wanted to buy a home to live in. Quite sad if he actually did the reverse and costed people money instead.

But then again, with the winter coming up... home sales should dip again...

That he was.... ahahahh

Yes there were some good deals on homes during his rants, but he also was sure that the market here would tank and he even stated around march or so of this year that the market would tank 30 to 40 percent. I don't think he would have bought from his strong viewpoints and I hope he wasn't just trying to get everyone to sell at a major loss just to try to pick up some deals himself.

As for winter coming up, usually the market does dip a bit in the winter, but this year is so tough to say because:

- People want to buy before the olympics,
- Interest rates are really low and "they say" that they will keep them that way until spring, although they have been known to raise interest rates at any given time
- Everyone keeps saying that we are coming out of a V-shaped recession strong and that BC will lead the charge
- People want to buy before the HST kicks in to save some money

And just for 1.8's sake, here are the other sides of the coin:

- Olympics may not be all that
- Our recovery may be optimistic and our Government is in debt
- When the HST kicks in, there could be less demand and prices could come down.

Overall though, I think consumer confidence is a lot stronger nowadays, but it's tough to say whether it's justified or not.

Once again people, do your own research and make educated decisions. Don't believe anyone that "KNOWS" how the market is going to be like because there are so many factors that have an affect.

Well, it still pretty premature to judge on how the market is doing considering spring and summer has sales hikes and due to the olympics, nothing is really certain. I wouldn't judge or say that the market is rebounded until a year after the olympics. I still think the market has a way to drop.

consumer confidence is a funny thing... imo it is unjustified.
the market is up, but who knows why? :confused::confused:
people have short term memories.. the recession hit hard less than a year ago.

^ I agree, people are buying because of ultra low interest rates and fear of the HST.....from an investment standpoint (not lifestyle), I think the market will dip again in the back half of 2010. I would be less concerned about buying dirt Vs a pie in the sky....I think downtown condos will be hit the hardest.

Prime lending rate and long term mortgage rates are not directly correlated. 5 yr mortgages are under 4% right now. That is ridiculously low historically speaking, but variables are available for prime flat 2.25% if you really think its a great idea to bet on that.

EDIT: To add fuel to the fire, the financial markets are up 40-60% from their lows depending on which index you look at. Econ 101 states equity markets are a leading indicator while home sales are a lagging indicator. We will see if that rings true in this specific economic condition.

But aren't you correlating the world's finances vs. a specific market? If that's the case, I don't see how this could be any indicator in a city like Vancouver.

Interest rate right now are quit low. It is the bet time to grab it now since the market is down.

Yeah, thanks but no thanks.

I'd rather take my advice from someone who can at the very least spell words correctly.

Condos...
 

Wow, reading some of the new comments reminds me of having to weed the lawn after you come back from a long vacation. So lets get the lawnmower and the weedkiller out and get to work.

1. I slimmed thru and saw the word "rant" associated with my posts, Sorry I wasn't ranting, just trying to answer a question posed by a revscene member.

2. The question was specifically related to "condos", please have a look at the statistical packages posted by local real estate boards in the GVRD, and look at the how the stats are generated, there are historical annual trends that happen regardless of whether your in a bear or bull market place. For example it rains alot more in november than in august.

3. Misquoted me again Realtor, down 40%? I predicted 20% down in 2009 for CONDOS, and guess what, I came pretty close, Condo's down 16% April 2009, but the year is not over yet so lets wait till the end of the year... (WHY don't I see any bold predictions from the resident REALTORS on this board?) Still no one took my bet...

4. Please tell me ONE good financial and logical argument based on fundamentals that would make buying a condo a good sound investment...

5. I can troll the internet and find good news and bad news to suit my argument, for example look at this little gem.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...rticle1357814/

The fact remains buying a $400k pie in the sky condo, Does not make alot of financial sense.

6. Historical (some people may even say manipulated) LOW interests are keeping this market afloat, please tell me where do you think interest rates will be in a few years? And what do you think is going to happen when FTB's start getting squeezed? You think they are going to want to buy a bigger pie in the sky, with already maxed out payments?

7. The HST has little effect on the condo market, this is yet another very smart advertising plan to get the next greater Fool into the lineup and buy into the hype. The threshold for HST is $525,000 , purchaser's of homes up to 525,000 would pay no more tax on average than under the current PST. If you are buying a condo for investment purposes that is more than half million dollars you are ABSOLUTELY crazy, there I said it!

8. I admit 2001 prices (adjusted after inflation of course! no one is going to say that we are going to be able to buy a 25cent ice-cream cone again) are a little far fetched but this little hiccup was certainly a surprise to me, but what was also very surprising is the Bank of Canada for the first time in its history came out and actually TOLD the the market that it would hold the interest rate at 0.25% until Q1-Q2 2010. There has never been a time where the Bank of Canada has told the market what it intends to do with the interest rates. This really says something about how concerned the government is about the overall health of the economy.

You as a professional real estate agent has yet to come up with a good sound arguement to buy a condo for investment purposes, why don't you go to the bank and get yourself pre approved mortgage and come down to where I work and put an offer on 1 of 11, empty penthouse units in the the Azure development (new west) where I work? They start at 1.3 million dollars, can you rent that out to cover your mortgage payment? I promise NO ONE will feel sorry for you, I would be the first to buy you a house warming gift, probably something to go with your granite countertops.

I never said I was "god" ever, lets try to keep this informative rather than throwing insults around...

Also you can save on the commission because the buyer doesn't have to pay it!

there is still massive lay offs every month in BC. we are still in the middle of the recession and nowhere near coming out of it.

prices and sales might have gone up a bit in the last couple months. But so has unemployment. people can't keep houses if they don't have jobs. and people can't keep houses when the interest rates shoot back up. it'll crash again soon.

i need some feedback from you guys...
recently started looking... i have narrowed down my choices..(non are in downtown area, mostly burnaby - NW)
what im trying to figure out is. constuction type.
Low rise complex (3-4 floor)
Foundation: Concrete Perimeter
Exterior Finish Brick, Mixed, Vinyl

vs
high rise
Foundation Concrete Perimeter
Exterior Finish Concrete

Does it matter, would you rather buy one over other. Im thinking if i go for low rise, in the future they are chances of forking out $ for new roof.. As oppose to high rise. Would you pick one over another or what could be chances special assestments in High rise? anything else im missing here?
thks

^ I would consider the words earthquake and fire...

personaly I would never want to live more then 2-3 stories high.

then again you could just be 2-3 stories up in the highrise.

The market will never really crash.
The lower mainland, is where all the jobs are at, its also one of the nicest, cleanest, safest cities in the world. As long as all these remain unchanged, and the jobs are here. Then the value will stay high, because everyone will need to live here. No one wants to commute a hour or two one way every day. And everyone needs a job in the city.

Having lived in both, I would say my preference is the high rise. Low-rises, in most cases, suck for sound proofing due to the wood frame construction. If your neighbor is loud, you'll be able to hear them. If you do choose to go low-rise, then make sure to get the top floor, so you don't have to deal with the sound of footsteps above you.

Even with today's new low-rise there is still that problem? Or is this for mostly older low-rise?

i have friends with newer low rises. sound isn't as bad as older ones, but the issue with noise from above (if you're not on the top floor) still exists. really depends on your neighbour above IMO. 1 friend had a family upstairs and would always hear little footsteps of kids running down the hall during the day. at another place we never heard a thing.

I think that is very true. Not to mention, alot of people brought their house with no financing needed. I know too many people brought their house/condo in Richmond/Downtown with cash. It's not easy to borrow money from the bank in Canada, unlike US. And the demand for housing is extremely high! I don't see the market will go up in the next few year, but it won't crash for sure.

what are the real estate predictions for the lower mainland for this winter or early 2011