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Old 10-23-2011, 08:35 PM   #1
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Can someone help me figure this out step by step? I've always sucked at math and I'm going to burst out crying soon

10% of all mortgage holders at Walls Fargo default on their mortgages. The probability of defaulting on their mortgages and having been previously rejected by another institution for a mortgage is 0.07. The probability of not defaulting on their mortgages and having been previously rejected by another institution for a mortgage is 0.18.

a) What is the probability of a mortgage holder having been previously rejected by another institution GIVEN that they defaulted on their mortgage with Walls Fargo?

b) What is the probability of a mortgage holder having been previously accepted by another institution given that they defaulted on their mortgage with Walls Fargo?

c) What is the probability that a mortgage holder defaults on their mortgage if they had been previously rejected by another institution?

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Old 10-23-2011, 08:37 PM   #2
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is this from the bcit text?
if it is, i can look in my notes
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Old 10-23-2011, 08:43 PM   #3
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its a a handout from the instructor.... I'm essentially stuck on the probability rules cus no matter what I do its wrong...
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Old 10-23-2011, 08:56 PM   #4
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aw man, sorry can't help you then

try looking at share out, there's always some goodies there that can help you
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Old 10-23-2011, 08:59 PM   #5
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thanks anyway
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Old 10-23-2011, 09:16 PM   #6
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Do you have the answers to the problems? Post them if you do.
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Old 10-23-2011, 09:25 PM   #7
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a) P(Reject|Default)= 0.70

b) P(Approve|Default)= 0.30

c) P(Default|Reject)= 0.28
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Old 10-23-2011, 09:39 PM   #8
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ooooh probability


Ill tried to help later if you still need it
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Old 10-23-2011, 09:41 PM   #9
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Ok I did A before you posted and got the same thing.

For a.) The definition of conditional probability - P(A|B) = Probability of being previously rejected and that they defaulted on their mortgage (0.07)

divided by the probability of B, which is the probability of defaulting on the loan. (0.10)

0.07/0.10 = 0.7
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Old 10-23-2011, 10:02 PM   #10
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Thanks d1, then what was all that crap i tried to do like

P(A|B)= P(A and B)/P(B) and going back to square one
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Old 10-23-2011, 10:26 PM   #11
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for conditonal probability draw yourself a chart. - its pretty helpful

anyways:

Rejected (.25) non rejected (.75)



Defaults (.10) 0.07 0.03
Non defaults (.9) 0.18 0.72

1) find reject given default = (0.07)/(.10) =.7
2)find approve given default (0.03)/(.10) =.3
3) find default given reject (0.07)/(0.25) =.28


hope that helps
Last edited by wuuhoo; 10-23-2011 at 10:29 PM. Reason: I tried to organize into chart form but I guess rs doesnt let me
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Old 10-23-2011, 10:50 PM   #12
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^ bang on

Remember in stats: when in doubt, draw it out
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