Vancouver Real Estate Market Slowing

[Manic!]

Gurmant Grewal became an MP 6 years after he immigrated to Canada. So by the rules some RSers want to impose he would have not been allowed to buy a house.

[Meowjin]

Originally Posted by Manic!

Gurmant Grewal became an MP 6 years after he immigrated to Canada. So by the rules some RSers want to impose he would have not been allowed to buy a house.

He probably won because the other mp's in the area were white.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Jason00S2000

I totally agree. White people in urban Canada need to realize that urban Canada is only going to be less white, and to stop worrying about it.

Or until they realize that not all of their kids will grow up to become doctors, lawyers, or 8th grade English teachers. Some of their kids are likely best suited to serving coffee at Tim Horton's, or perhaps washing floors.

Without immigration, we have no one to do the dirty jobs.

[SILVERBULL]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Or until they realize that not all of their kids will grow up to become doctors, lawyers, or 8th grade English teachers. Some of their kids are likely best suited to serving coffee at Tim Horton's, or perhaps washing floors.

Without immigration, we have no one to do the dirty jobs.

Bullshit.

I was born in Vancouver. I DESERVE a nice home in the city. I DESERVE a nice car. I DESERVE a hot girlfriend. I DESERVE to make six-figures. I DESERVE, I DESERVE, I DESERVE!

If it weren't for those immigrants taking all the good jobs and buying up everything, I'd have all those things by now!

[Manic!]

Originally Posted by Meowjin

He probably won because the other mp's in the area were white.

He won despite the lack of support from the South Asian community. Seen his wife get booed when she speaks to a South Asian crowd.

[diesel_test]

Originally Posted by SILVERBULL

Bullshit.

If it weren't for those immigrants taking all the good jobs and buying up everything, I'd have all those things by now!

We have a family business and we hire immigrants. They work really hard for minimum wage i respect

[hillmar]

Wow 90 percent... you for real woman!!

Canada's real estate to collapse 90 percent: Keiser & Foss - YouTube

[Harvey Specter]

Originally Posted by Manic!

Gurmant Grewal became an MP 6 years after he immigrated to Canada. So by the rules some RSers want to impose he would have not been allowed to buy a house.

After he illegally entered Canada, became a cab driver and worked his way up to been a MP.

[jasonturbo]

Real estate is the most emotional of assets.

When people feel the market will appreciate, everyone wants to buy in before "they get priced out", putting more upwards pressure on pricing.

Naturally the opposite is also true, once sentiment shifts to a negative outlook on real estate, nobody wants to "buy now and see their investment depreciate", which causes for a major slump in sales volume, and followed eventually by reluctant sellers dropping their prices... which causes other sellers to drop their prices further until housing reverts back to the mean where people consider the value to be more in line with their actual financial position. (Not teaser interest rates, and a willingness to overextend ones finances in the hopes for a quick return on a house flip in a bull market.)

Anything is possible, I wouldn't expect a US housing crash anywhere in Canada, but it is reasonable to assume that prices will come down in the near term. Canadians are more indebted than ever before (and more so than our American neighbors circa 2007), interest rates can only go up, and the BOC is moving to a more stringent set of lending standards. Unless of course wages increase in Canada.. but for the better part of the last decade they have basically flatlined.

[bing]

Originally Posted by mikemhg

The fuck you mean entitlement, asshole? The game is rigged to one side, there's no denying that, it has nothing to do with entitlement you prick.

It is entitlement when everyone thinks they deserve to live in Vancouver because they were born here as a result of their ancestors coming earlier. And what's rigged? are you going to point at people who owned homes and saw the value of them rise significantly or are you going to bring up the foreigner argument? where is the data to back up your reasoning? Or better yet, let me ask, whose the real asshole, the guy who is given opportunity yet still complains or the guy who does something about his situation? You prick, I mean YOU pick

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

I like that idea. Make it so you need to stay within Canada for at least 10 years before you can buy a property.

For business/investor class, it is not just about access into the country, they also have to invest a significant amount into the economy. There are two types: provincial and federal. Provincial nominee program (investment of $400k in Vancouver or $200k for places outside of it). Federal investor (purchase of 650k of funds or for entrepreneur class - starting a business hiring at least 1 person). Most of you probably wouldn't know that because nobody took the time here to figure it out. Now that is out of the way, that brings us to the question of why they should invest here instead of somewhere else if they had to wait 10 years to buy property? 10 is also quite an arbitrary number.

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

^^ yes lets keep letting the rich forgiens who have no desire to stay in Vancover or be part of Canadians buy our land. Keep thinking that till all the ppl work in BC sleep on the streets and under bridges just like what Vegas is turning into.

My uncle is an immigrant and went to UBC. Later on opened up an architectural firm that employed 7 people including drafters for his first business (won some awards around the time of the Expo). Eventually, he started a second business in computer wholesaling with two friends (who later ditched him and he had to abandon architecture), which required 1 million of inventory of his own foreign money. Since that time, he has kept 5-10 Canadians consistently employed, not to mention the fact that while he may have held an identity that reflected his ethnic origin when he first arrived, identities are fluid, and he very much identifies with being Canadian today (mainly due to a change in perspective and in the degrees of attachment to his birthplace). He was able to send both kids to UBC, with his son winning the Governor Generals award for being the top ranking student in his faculty. Now he is studying at Stanford Law and his daughter is teaching now, both will obviously be law-abiding tax paying citizens for the rest of their lives with strong roots for future generations here. So tell me, who are you to tell say that immigrants like him have no desire to stay in this country? what conclusive evidence do you possess? So easy to make up shit to support your fallacious reasoning and spurious claims. Reminds me of the type of racism that took hold when the wave of HK immigration occurred in the 90s.

I'd like to add that since 73% of immigrants tend to settle in metropolitan areas of Toronto, followed by Vancouver, and Montreal, the whole issue with property prices is really only affecting certain regions (when there are many other places you could live in BC and the rest of the country). With the point system, I would agree that our immigration policy favors wealthy immigrants, but it is also very racialized and gendered. Nobody bitches about these things, nor when we take the highest qualified immigrants and use them for cheap labor. Only when they are potentially affecting our housing prices, then there is a ton of concern (but nobody here has even produced any evidence to back up their conjecture).

[Mr.HappySilp]

I do. One my mom distant relatives came, purchase 2 house in Vancouver and left. Haven't seem him in a few years already. It is happening just not no mention it.

All our gov want is money. Do you think they care about us citizens? Nope.

We are not talking about 1+ million houses when over 50% of working class have been priced out of buying house and is force into apartments then that's an issue. Let just say you take home 70k a year you are still going to have a hard time owning a house. Housing price in Burnaby area is around 800k where I live and is just decent.

Say you have 20% down payment already so that's $160000 you still have 640k left. Say you are good with savings and put 55k of that 75k into paying off your house you still have around 11 years to paid off your house. Now that's assuming there is no inflation and you don't get a raise. What if the interest rate goes up?

Yes I am fully aware our housing market is a lot better than some place around the World but if the gov don't do anything then soon Canadian will have no choice to only buy apartments or worse rent for the rest of their lives. Is good that a lot of these immigrants are pumping money into our economy but at the same time they are also pricing out Canadians from owning a property.

[minoru_tanaka]

It's greed. Complete and utter greed. We have a lot of people that came from piss poor backrounds, pretty much serfdom. So now they have a chance to buy up property and be landlords. So the hoarde all the homes and so that everyone is basically working for them. Well it's been getting carried away here and everyone's trying to buy and prices just keeping going higher and everyone seems to feel safe buying cause prices just keep going higher.

I mean these house flippers, I wonder if there's any guilt that they're just basically making peoples lives more difficult, enslaving them to banks just so they can get the next 3 series. Eventually, hopefully this stops but I don't see any end in sight.

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

I do. One my mom distant relatives came, purchase 2 house in Vancouver and left. Haven't seem him in a few years already. It is happening just not no mention it.

All our gov want is money. Do you think they care about us citizens? Nope.

We are not talking about 1+ million houses when over 50% of working class have been priced out of buying house and is force into apartments then that's an issue. Let just say you take home 70k a year you are still going to have a hard time owning a house. Housing price in Burnaby area is around 800k where I live and is just decent.

Say you have 20% down payment already so that's $160000 you still have 640k left. Say you are good with savings and put 55k of that 75k into paying off your house you still have around 11 years to paid off your house. Now that's assuming there is no inflation and you don't get a raise. What if the interest rate goes up?

Yes I am fully aware our housing market is a lot better than some place around the World but if the gov don't do anything then soon Canadian will have no choice to only buy apartments or worse rent for the rest of their lives. Is good that a lot of these immigrants are pumping money into our economy but at the same time they are also pricing out Canadians from owning a property.

it boggles my mind that people really dont think foreign money is playing a big factor in the increase in housing prices.

My best friend is in RE development and he sells shiet loads of units to chinese people that buy 2-3 units in the complex.

it's not racism, I'm asian and It's not the fact that they are buying properties here that has me concerned, it's that they are adding unnecessary stress to the LOCAL economy by putting a burden on future generations that need to take on huge debts in order to own a home.

When the Doctor or professional that has to pay 50% of their income on their home, that leaves less money or disposable income for people to spend and that hurts local businesses.

The winners are people that got into real estate early/ the sellers / and the developers (ME).

Losers are definitely the future generation. (MY kids, and their kids)

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by azndude69

it boggles my mind that people really dont think foreign money is playing a big factor in the increase in housing prices.

My best friend is in RE development and he sells shiet loads of units to chinese people that buy 2-3 units in the complex.

it's not racism, I'm asian and It's not the fact that they are buying properties here that has me concerned, it's that they are adding unnecessary stress to the LOCAL economy by putting a burden on future generations that need to take on huge debts in order to own a home.

It boggles my mind that you believe foreign buyers are playing a big factor without having any actual data to justify the statement.

Foreign buying only gets heat out here in Vancouver, so explain what is happening in the GTA, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, St. Johsn, and every other Canadian city that has seen RE jump in value over the last decade.

It's not foreign buyers, it's simply relaxing lending standards to a point that anyone can get a mortgage, long amoritization periods and bare minimum interest rates, those are the key issues here. Allowing Canadian consumers to sink themselves into levels of debt never seen before.

There are MANY people that I know who bought a house before the boom, saw it appreciate 100k, took that 100k of equity and got a Heloc just to have a down payment for another property... or two, with plans to flip those houses. Ordinary people were turning into speculative buyers and flippers and that really put pressure on prices.

There is no statistics to support that foreign buyers are driving the market, at least none that I have ever been able to find.

What's sad is the "basement rental disease" that has struck the lower mainland, in order for many people to qualify for a mortgage, even with a 35 year term at variable rate of next to nothing was by having a basement rental listed as part of their income, many times more than they would actually take in from a tenant.

I don't want to own a house if I have to share it with someone... but that's just me.

[minoru_tanaka]

^ regardless of whether or not it is actually foreigners, the RE speculation in Van is just getting out of hand and no good will come of it.

Originally Posted by azndude69

it boggles my mind that people really dont think foreign money is playing a big factor in the increase in housing prices.

My best friend is in RE development and he sells shiet loads of units to chinese people that buy 2-3 units in the complex.

it's not racism, I'm asian and It's not the fact that they are buying properties here that has me concerned, it's that they are adding unnecessary stress to the LOCAL economy by putting a burden on future generations that need to take on huge debts in order to own a home.

When the Doctor or professional that has to pay 50% of their income on their home, that leaves less money or disposable income for people to spend and that hurts local businesses.

The winners are people that got into real estate early/ the sellers / and the developers (ME).

Losers are definitely the future generation. (MY kids, and their kids)

Ideal situation would be these "winners" stuck holding the bag while the bubble pops and things go back the way they were before.
Worst case scenerio there will be a bunch people in other countries holding all their profits that they made from selling Vancouver homes back to Vancouverites and Vancouver becomes poorer as a result. And by the way the BC gov't been acting, they'll probably raise taxes even higher to make up for the lost revenue.

It wouldn't be right for me to hoarde food, drive up prices just to provide myself with luxeries I don't understand why it's ok to do the same with shelter. Nonetheless it's working for them

[Manic!]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

All our gov want is money.

And that money goes to things like roads and schools that people like you use. If a foreigner owns a house that's sits empty it means he's paying for services he is not using. That's good for the local citizens.

[4444]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

It boggles my mind that you believe foreign buyers are playing a big factor without having any actual data to justify the statement.

Foreign buying only gets heat out here in Vancouver, so explain what is happening in the GTA, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, St. Johsn, and every other Canadian city that has seen RE jump in value over the last decade.

It's not foreign buyers, it's simply relaxing lending standards to a point that anyone can get a mortgage, long amoritization periods and bare minimum interest rates, those are the key issues here. Allowing Canadian consumers to sink themselves into levels of debt never seen before.

There are MANY people that I know who bought a house before the boom, saw it appreciate 100k, took that 100k of equity and got a Heloc just to have a down payment for another property... or two, with plans to flip those houses. Ordinary people were turning into speculative buyers and flippers and that really put pressure on prices.

There is no statistics to support that foreign buyers are driving the market, at least none that I have ever been able to find.

What's sad is the "basement rental disease" that has struck the lower mainland, in order for many people to qualify for a mortgage, even with a 35 year term at variable rate of next to nothing was by having a basement rental listed as part of their income, many times more than they would actually take in from a tenant.

I don't want to own a house if I have to share it with someone... but that's just me.

QFT

Lax lending creates bubbles - just watch the slowdown in van real estate now that lending / mortgage rules are a bit more stringent

If foreign moola was a big effect on the market, they'd be snapping up more for less... Won't happen

[minoru_tanaka]

Originally Posted by Manic!

And that money goes to things like roads and schools that people like you use. If a foreigner owns a house that's sits empty it means he's paying for services he is not using. That's good for the local citizens.

Not if local citizens are spending most of their money on paying for their house cause the prices have been driven up so much. And if he's able to sell it for a profit and take it home, then once again that's money taken out of our city

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

It boggles my mind that you believe foreign buyers are playing a big factor without having any actual data to justify the statement.

Foreign buying only gets heat out here in Vancouver, so explain what is happening in the GTA, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, St. Johsn, and every other Canadian city that has seen RE jump in value over the last decade.

It's not foreign buyers, it's simply relaxing lending standards to a point that anyone can get a mortgage, long amoritization periods and bare minimum interest rates, those are the key issues here. Allowing Canadian consumers to sink themselves into levels of debt never seen before.

There are MANY people that I know who bought a house before the boom, saw it appreciate 100k, took that 100k of equity and got a Heloc just to have a down payment for another property... or two, with plans to flip those houses. Ordinary people were turning into speculative buyers and flippers and that really put pressure on prices.

There is no statistics to support that foreign buyers are driving the market, at least none that I have ever been able to find.

What's sad is the "basement rental disease" that has struck the lower mainland, in order for many people to qualify for a mortgage, even with a 35 year term at variable rate of next to nothing was by having a basement rental listed as part of their income, many times more than they would actually take in from a tenant.

I don't want to own a house if I have to share it with someone... but that's just me.

I agree, lax lending standards are a huge contributor, because it helps speculators (which is another huge factor in the increase in RE prices), but look at Toronto and Calgary now. Why wasnt toronto or calgary prices going through the roof like Vancouver has in the last 3-5 years?

All the sudden there's huge condo construction booms and Toronto is now seeing 20% increases. The foreign money is moving to Calgary and Toronto.


These developers and agents are focusing on these buyers in these cities.
It's hard because no one actually keeps tracks of the data. But ask anyone who deals directly with new subdivisions and developments and they will all say the same thing. Why would anyone want to keep track and release data that would hurt their businesses or be perceived as being biased against asians in the media. Asian buyers with foreign money buying up all the units. Last time I check Calgary doesnt have as many asians as vancouver, but when an asian lady is buying 3-4 units in new subdivisions in Calgary. . . . . .

My friend sold 3 units without the person even walking into the homes.

[iEatClams]

^ BTW, im not saying foreign money is the sole reason, I'm just saying it is a major factor. The other two are cheap credit and speculation.

[bing]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

I do. One my mom distant relatives came, purchase 2 house in Vancouver and left. Haven't seem him in a few years already. It is happening just not no mention it.

Yes I am fully aware our housing market is a lot better than some place around the World but if the gov don't do anything then soon Canadian will have no choice to only buy apartments or worse rent for the rest of their lives. Is good that a lot of these immigrants are pumping money into our economy but at the same time they are also pricing out Canadians from owning a property.

Is there enough people buying one or two houses and leaving to make a material impact on Vancouver? Clearly our differences lie in our epistemological positions, you adamantly providing explanations derived on a phenomenological perspective (experience) as the basis of what constitutes "knowledge" while I am asking for justifications backed up by more objective quantitative data or a cogent argument. The issue is that this phenomenon is not happening all across the country, emerging as idiosyncratic to Vancouver, in a country where people have the liberty to improve their situation.

"the information compiled from those surveys indicates that the percentage of foreign buyers in Vancouver has been running between three and four per cent for years. B.C. Assessment numbers show much lower levels of foreign ownership, although those particular statistics could be skewed by foreign investors using local addresses. Given the information that's come from REALTOR® surveys, I'm guessing that accounting for local addresses might bring B.C. Assessment numbers up to oh, say, three or four per cent."

Foreign buyers not gobbling up Vancouver houses

This story reflects the opinion of an RE agent and something I quickly found on google. Obviously I am not purporting it to be the truth, but can her estimate be that far off? (i.e. she is claiming 3-4%, would she really say that if it was actually 50%?)

PS, sorry about the language, I got bored reading Mr.happysilps horrible grasp of English and decided to confuse him lol

All our gov want is money. Do you think they care about us citizens? Nope.

We are not talking about 1+ million houses when over 50% of working class have been priced out of buying house and is force into apartments then that's an issue. Let just say you take home 70k a year you are still going to have a hard time owning a house. Housing price in Burnaby area is around 800k where I live and is just decent.

Say you have 20% down payment already so that's $160000 you still have 640k left. Say you are good with savings and put 55k of that 75k into paying off your house you still have around 11 years to paid off your house. Now that's assuming there is no inflation and you don't get a raise. What if the interest rate goes up?

I personally wouldn't blame the government, Canada is known for too many low wage jobs and many Canadians do not contribute enough to the system for the demands they place. Higher property prices means more property taxes. I would assume that they would have had to cut more services or raised taxes to balance the books. Being working class does not entitle home ownership any more than being middle and upper class. Money just happens to do the talking. I think it is still possible to own a home, but you need to become a professional and possibly marry a spouse that is too. But again, part of the problem is that everyone has the perception of wanting to own. It is an ideal, and if Canada is anything like the US, it was promoted by the government, the whole idea 'every American would own a home with a white picket fence'. I believe that one function is that it tends to encourage political stability since people have something to lose and they are less mobile.

I've lived in BC my whole life, and if it weren't for the housing boom, this place would probably still look like Victoria, where nothing ever changes. There wouldn't be all his construction going on and certainly not all these nice hotels that have sprung up. It goes with the territory of being world class as it fuels peoples desire to want to live here. You just can't have it both ways.

[iEatClams]

^ I, personally, am happy with what happened the last 5-7 years. My personal net worth has increased, and am happy with the developments in the city.

My concern is really with the high amount of debt that many households have and the risk to the economy if interest rates rise or if the economy worsens and many of these households end up losing their jobs.
Also costing us taxpayers through CMHC when these homes go under as well.
The other concerns:

- will deter top talent from moving to this city due to the high cost of living.
- the decrease in disposable income due to high % of pay going to housing, especially for future generations.

[bing]

Originally Posted by minoru_tanaka

Not if local citizens are spending most of their money on paying for their house cause the prices have been driven up so much. And if he's able to sell it for a profit and take it home, then once again that's money taken out of our city

There's an option to still live in Vancouver, and it's called renting (and being able to invest the difference of a mortgage payment intelligently elsewhere). Most people have the home ownership ideal so far up their ass, that they never once questioned where it came from. I guess this is what makes tradition and instilling values so powerful, an inability to be innovative and flexible.

[jasonturbo]

i

Originally Posted by azndude69

I agree, lax lending standards are a huge contributor, because it helps speculators (which is another huge factor in the increase in RE prices), but look at Toronto and Calgary now. Why wasnt toronto or calgary prices going through the roof like Vancouver has in the last 3-5 years?

Toronto is just as bad as Vancouver:

Housing boom grinding to a halt | Money | Toronto Sun

"House prices in Toronto, Canada’s largest city and financial capital, are expected to rise 6.6 percent this year after rising al most 10 percent in 2011. But that will quickly fizzle into a decline of 0.2 percent next year, the first fall since 2008.

In Vancouver, the country’s most expensive market and until recently clocking the fastest annual price rises, they are expected to fall 1.6 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2013."

http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/...usespecial.pdf

"Thanks to a spectacular run-up in a number of high-end neighborhoods
in late 2010 and early 2011, Vancouver home prices posted the most
significant increase among Canada’s largest urban centres for the second
straight year in 2011, rising by 14.3%, following an even stronger
gain of 15.5% in 2010. Well behind, last year, was Toronto with an annual
price increase of 7.6%, just slightly ahead of Regina at 7.3%. All
other major urban centres showed smaller rates of increase than the national
average. Edmonton prices fell for the third time in the last four
years."

Bit of a conflict in this information, but if you were to look further into the RBC report and compare it to historical data you would notice a few things,

RE prices in Edmonton and Calgary peaked much sooner and faster than other parts of the country due to NG/Oil boom. So as the other major cities caught up, it was already time for the markets in Alberta to begin the process of normalizing.

The average home price in Vancouver seeing a more significant increase in price does not coincide wit the number of homes sold, fewer homes are selling and first time buyers are essentially priced out. More homes over 1 million dollars are selling than ever before, this is why Realtors are careful how they release stats... if the sales are slowing down but the average sale price is up, they only tell you about the average home price increae.. naturally if the prices are down but the sales numbers are up or "less down than the prices", they will release those figures, or some other method of putting data out to the public to form a positive sentiment towards real estate.

Anyway, GTA and lower mainland are insane, Calgary is not far off either for anyone that is familiar with the city.

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

It boggles my mind that you believe foreign buyers are playing a big factor without having any actual data to justify the statement.

Foreign buying only gets heat out here in Vancouver, so explain what is happening in the GTA, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, St. Johsn, and every other Canadian city that has seen RE jump in value over the last decade.

It's not foreign buyers, it's simply relaxing lending standards to a point that anyone can get a mortgage, long amoritization periods and bare minimum interest rates, those are the key issues here. Allowing Canadian consumers to sink themselves into levels of debt never seen before.

There are MANY people that I know who bought a house before the boom, saw it appreciate 100k, took that 100k of equity and got a Heloc just to have a down payment for another property... or two, with plans to flip those houses. Ordinary people were turning into speculative buyers and flippers and that really put pressure on prices.

There is no statistics to support that foreign buyers are driving the market, at least none that I have ever been able to find.

What's sad is the "basement rental disease" that has struck the lower mainland, in order for many people to qualify for a mortgage, even with a 35 year term at variable rate of next to nothing was by having a basement rental listed as part of their income, many times more than they would actually take in from a tenant.

I don't want to own a house if I have to share it with someone... but that's just me.

I am sure we all remember last year there a tour group from CHINA came to Vancouver for a week and they and the real estate agent just takes them to different house or housing development to buy buy buy. Please tell me that didn't happen LOL. COZ it was on the news and what's even worse is that these ppl were out bidding each other. It is still happening to this day.

Yes foreign money have 0 impact on Vancouver housing. Is all fake and we all image it.