Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[4444]

jesus would rent, as you have to rent anyways (during construction), so why rush?

when decisions are made in a rush, they are usually the worst decisions.

i won't tell you not to buy, as you are clearly a) wealthy, b) intelligent, c) looking to establish this as your home for many years to come. I can respect that.

For my personal opinion on things:

1) CAD is definitely overvalued right now, it will drop, i would leave my HKD invested in HK right now

2) real estate, based on fundamentals is overvalued, but you aren't buying based just on fundamentals, you are customizing you dream home - but i wouldn't be surprised if things continue to slow down, which means you will be more in the driver's seat.

I think the US's impending rate increase in 2015 will be a major driver. Can Canada follow suit? If they can, it will have a negative impact on Canada's already weakening economy (these are facts, not opinion) whereas the US is growing, albeit slowly. If Canada can't follow suit in raising the overnight rate, which, from a policy standpoint, I would be surprised by, right there, you will gain a HUGE chunk in the FX.

either way, either rates will go up, decreasing affordability and negatively affecting the economy, decreasing housing demand, and therefore prices, or rates won't go up alongside the US, and the CDN/HKD will suffer - you will gain. Of course, this is a simplified view on economics, but these are the relations that matter to you.

So with that, move back, rent a place for a year or more, enjoy living your life and getting reacquainted with your life, friends, and family locally, and start looking in 6 months or so. Take your time, no rush, make the best decision for you and your family, and enjoy life.

All those trying to make money in real estate, buying with 5% down are the ones that will lose when prices go down, you are looking for your dream home and have time on your hands. even if prices do slowly continue to rise, so what, you can buy in a year at 1 or 2% more in value... given you're not scrambling to get your down payment together, that shouldn't matter to you.

i'd love to know what it is that you do/did, just out of interest.

[NKC ONE]

Thanks 4444. Very insightful analysis on my current situation.

Down payment isn't a problem for me. I don't have any local credit to show for anyways so I'm ready for a 40% DP when the time comes. Maybe even 50% because I seriously hate owing banks regardless of the interest rate. Why not just buy cash? Heatscore bro. I would hate for them to just find a way to tax my wealth all of a sudden.

I'm never in a rush to buy as I already have and will continue to have property in HK. I'm not house horny. I'm just a little dream house horny right now. I couldn't care less about owning a house. Just that after building my first house in HK, I feel its the best way for me to love it. There's really no way I can buy a new place (no matter how nice) and have it perfectly fit for me and my family. If someone is willing to build my dream house and charge me monthly to live in it, I'd give them a year's rent advance (but based on the rental yields of Vancouver lol)

I don't look to make money with my primary residence just because that's not how I look at it. I wanna buy it as cheap as I can and if it increases in value, great. But if I plan to live there for a long time, I'll just be paying an increased property tax with nothing in return.

I manufacture and trade building materials to small countries that not a lot of people even know of. Nothing fancy or spectacular. Just hit several great market and supplied a reasonably priced product with overall great service support. Just took the right risk at the right time and it payed off, luck mostly. Aluminum windows and doors is my main game.

[Harvey Specter]

Interesting look at the boom happening in London real estate market and how Britons' can't afford to buy these homes. Similar situation locally.

'Panic Selling' In London Drives Fear That The UK Housing Bubble Is About To Burst

There is one topic of conversation in Britain right now: The insane price of property, both to own and to rent. People on modest, middle class incomes who bought houses for a few hundred thousands pounds in marginal areas like London's East End during the mid 2000s have suddenly found themselves living inside assets worth more than £1 million ($1.68 million).



The Bank of England has kept interest rates virtually at zero
since the crash of 2008, making mortgages incredibly cheap. That has driven a wave of buyers into the market, pumping up property prices.

But Britons' incomes haven't kept pace with those prices, and now it appears we may be reaching some sort of breaking point. Some Londoners have begun "panic-selling" their houses, according to The Telegraph, in fear that this may be their last chance to cash in on the property ladder lottery before the housing boom comes crashing down.

The numbers show that fear may be justified.

Housing prices in the U.K. declined in July, according to Rightmove, as new buyers pulled out of the market. The BofE is not likely to raise interest rates soon, according to the Guardian, so that dip may be seasonal or temporary.

However, it came at the same time as the real estate agent chain Savills reported that the London market was topping out. In its earnings call, Savills reported these stats for the first half of the year, according to the Financial Times:

London average property values: flat.
London volume of exchanges: up 9%.
Outside London average property values: up 9%.
Outside London volume of exchanges: up 20%.



The Telegraph / Highcharts

The Financial Times says
Savills group chief executive Jeremy Helsby told analysts that Londoners were getting out while the getting was good:

Good price rises in London have encouraged people to move out ... They’re going into the home counties, and filtering further up and further out. Previously, the country had been quiet.

Another sign of the top came in the form of the house price-to-earnings ratio as tracked by Halifax, the mortgage lender. Prices have again crested over five times the income of buyers. The last time they did that was right before the 2007 crash, The Telegraph notes, although at their peak prices hit 5.83 times earnings.

Hometrack, the housing data company, published this scary chart full of downward-pointing red arrows showing that in London, price growth is declining, fewer people are buying houses, fewer sales are occurring, and asking prices are in decline:



All the signs are suggesting that prices are now so high no one can afford to actually buy houses in London any more, and that's fueling a stampede for the exits among those sitting in Britain's most expensive real estate.

Want another stat? The Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker reported that 60% of owners now believe they must sell their houses in the next year, "the highest score of this measure since the survey's inception," as The Telegraph put it.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/pa...094800477.html

[Great68]

Originally Posted by GLOW

nice rental unit

"In-Law" suite...

haha

It is built like a house, 3/4" pressure treated plywood floor, 16" centres, double gussetted trusses, hurricane ties...

[multicartual]

So many men like myself will go childless unless we can figure out a way to make 250k+ a year. There is no way I would ever have kids if I made less than 250k per year in Vancouver.

100k is absolutely being in-poverty here.

[4444]

Originally Posted by multicartual

So many men like myself will go childless unless we can figure out a way to make 250k+ a year. There is no way I would ever have kids if I made less than 250k per year in Vancouver.

100k is absolutely being in-poverty here.

i recall reading something that said if you make $100K per year, you were top 5% of earners in Vancouver.

If that's true, wtf. $100K hardly buys you a great life living in vancouver, certainly not a 'top 5%' life.

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by multicartual

So many men like myself will go childless unless we can figure out a way to make 250k+ a year. There is no way I would ever have kids if I made less than 250k per year in Vancouver.

100k is absolutely being in-poverty here.

Is up to your lifestyle. The family that's renting our basement both parents is making around $12 to 14/hour and they have two kids. Seems to me they are doing just fine. In terms of child care mom works early shift and dad works late shift so someone is always home.

Yea you aren't going to travel to Europe or anywhere every year, you aren't going to eat out every week, or have fancy brand name items. But you will do just fine. They seem pretty happy as a family. Kids are always laughing and parent's seem to enjoy their lifestyle.

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

those in the industry (myself included) know it's a given now. chinese money plays a huge part in real estate. I dont think you can even debate it anymore. developers will never admit it because they dont want any restrictions at all.


the question now is: should we start having restrictions? Countries like singapore, australia, thailand, switzerland etc have restrictions. but should Canada?

there's pros and con's.

I personally think we should have restrictions similar to Australia.

I always support some kind of restriction. Such as from singapore. Only citizen can purchase housing. Or have applications to allow international to purchase say no more than 5% of the total real estate being sold last year. That leaves local with a much much higher chance to purchase since housing price will be as high as it is now (mainly because the market will be much more quiet.) Also to stop the loophole the gov can even place heavy property tax, more GST on house purchase when you own more than one property. This will prevent someone who is not a citizen of Canada to get their relatives to purchase property for them.

If you haven't notice Vancouver is getting more and more crowded. Even our public school is getting full. I talk to a friend who works at a school recently they what she said was that for applicants who wants to apply to schools if you are renting, living in relatives house, or simply don't own the place you put on your application you get a different application. Those who live outside of the school network gets a different application form. What they are trying to do is give seats to those who actually own their property in that area first.

[noclue]

Originally Posted by NKC ONE

Thanks 4444. Very insightful analysis on my current situation.

Down payment isn't a problem for me. I don't have any local credit to show for anyways so I'm ready for a 40% DP when the time comes. Maybe even 50% because I seriously hate owing banks regardless of the interest rate. Why not just buy cash? Heatscore bro. I would hate for them to just find a way to tax my wealth all of a sudden.

I'm never in a rush to buy as I already have and will continue to have property in HK. I'm not house horny. I'm just a little dream house horny right now. I couldn't care less about owning a house. Just that after building my first house in HK, I feel its the best way for me to love it. There's really no way I can buy a new place (no matter how nice) and have it perfectly fit for me and my family. If someone is willing to build my dream house and charge me monthly to live in it, I'd give them a year's rent advance (but based on the rental yields of Vancouver lol)

I don't look to make money with my primary residence just because that's not how I look at it. I wanna buy it as cheap as I can and if it increases in value, great. But if I plan to live there for a long time, I'll just be paying an increased property tax with nothing in return.

Aside from friends who live on the west coast of North America minus the SF bay area everyone I know who left Vancouver wants to come back, especially if they moved to Asia or the east coast. Just can't beat the hometown feel even with its shitty job market. I'm sure you and 4444 would not have left as well if Vancouver had better industries and career growth opportunities.

The issues you face is:
Job = might be difficult short term but your HK business will support you.
Timing = you want to come back before children turns 2 which is around two years
Mitigating real estate costs

IMO I echo 4444's advice, I would wait in HK for at least a year or two, building up USD waiting for the US to raise interest rates. Even if Canada follow suit or not, it will cause a correction in Canada. The opportunities you get when people are desperate to sell anything or get repossessed (cars, homes etc) will be very lucrative and worthwhile to wait. The downside however, is that if you come back to Canada during a correction, it will be impossible to get a loan thus I mentioned building up cash.

However, since emotions (and wife nagging) usually overcomes rationality, if you want to leave HK fast, just rent for a couple of years while preparing for a correction. All signs point to a rate increase by 2015 in the US but if that does not happen in 2 years, then might as well buy and build, life is too short to time markets.

Im curious though, how huskies bear HK summers?

[quasi]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

I always support some kind of restriction. Such as from singapore. Only citizen can purchase housing. Or have applications to allow international to purchase say no more than 5% of the total real estate being sold last year. That leaves local with a much much higher chance to purchase since housing price will be as high as it is now (mainly because the market will be much more quiet.) Also to stop the loophole the gov can even place heavy property tax, more GST on house purchase when you own more than one property. This will prevent someone who is not a citizen of Canada to get their relatives to purchase property for them.

If you haven't notice Vancouver is getting more and more crowded. Even our public school is getting full. I talk to a friend who works at a school recently they what she said was that for applicants who wants to apply to schools if you are renting, living in relatives house, or simply don't own the place you put on your application you get a different application. Those who live outside of the school network gets a different application form. What they are trying to do is give seats to those who actually own their property in that area first.

As far as I know there should be two applications, those in catchment and those outside, kids who live in the catchment area get first crack and are guaranteed a spot which makes sense. I would be very surprised if they have a separate application for those who are renting, they would have no idea of knowing if you were and so long as you can provide proof you live there ie: gas bill or hydro bill it really shouldn't be a problem.

I don't live in Vancouver so I guess I can't say 100% but it doesn't make sense they could force a child living in catchment to attend school out of catchment regardless of ownership status of where they live.

When my son goes to high school I'll be attempting to get him in a school out of catchment because they have a football team, I don't know if it will happen but I'm sure as hell going to try.

[noclue]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

I always support some kind of restriction. Such as from singapore. Only citizen can purchase housing. Or have applications to allow international to purchase say no more than 5% of the total real estate being sold last year. That leaves local with a much much higher chance to purchase since housing price will be as high as it is now (mainly because the market will be much more quiet.) Also to stop the loophole the gov can even place heavy property tax, more GST on house purchase when you own more than one property. This will prevent someone who is not a citizen of Canada to get their relatives to purchase property for them.

From what I heard the "foreigners" that buy up the most properties in BC are Albertans who are Canadians thus not restricted so it won't mitigate housing that much.

I believe in terms of who buys the most its:
1. Alberta
2. Americans
3. Chinese
4. Rest+

[meme405]

Originally Posted by Great68

I actually wanted the shed a darker blue, basically ford blue, but the wife said "get a couple shades lighter because it will dry darker than you think".
So I did, and it didn't get as dark as I wanted but whatever I don't feel like painting it again...

Can the wife even see the shed from the kitchen window?

Spoiler!

[Traum]

Originally Posted by noclue

From what I heard the "foreigners" that buy up the most properties in BC are Albertans who are Canadians thus not restricted so it won't mitigate housing that much.

I believe in terms of who buys the most its:
1. Alberta
2. Americans
3. Chinese
4. Rest+

Sorry buddy, but I think your preception is simply not so:

From the Globe and Mail article:

UBC’s Prof. David Ley, holder of the Canada Research Chair in Geography, has long studied links between international immigration to Vancouver and home prices there. In his 2010 book, Millionaire Migrants, the Oxford-educated researcher found an “unusually decisive” +0.94 correlation between the two factors (in which +1 represents movement in perfect correlation, -1 represents movement in exactly opposite directions, and 0 total randomness). This correlation far exceeded that between prices and interest rates (-0.12), rental vacancies (-0.03), unemployment (0.16) and other conventional correlates.

Dr. Ley’s conclusions are bolstered by a 2011 study by Landcor Data, which pored over sales records in Richmond and Vancouver’s Westside to discover that 74 per cent of all luxury purchases in 2010 were made by buyers with purely mainland Chinese names. “What some have underplayed or dismissed as apocryphal ‘as told by Realtors,’ is underpinned by educated numbers,” said Landcor.

With the top end RE unit scooped up by Mainland Chinese buyers, buyers move down the market to purchase cheaper units, with the irony that this move actually pushes market prices up. The end effect is that all buyers end up paying more, and this is what we are seeing in the inflated Vancouver RE market.

[multicartual]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

Is up to your lifestyle. The family that's renting our basement both parents is making around $12 to 14/hour and they have two kids. Seems to me they are doing just fine. In terms of child care mom works early shift and dad works late shift so someone is always home.

An enjoyable lifestyle in Vancouver just begins at 100k, trust me, I've had a roller coaster of income over the years and anything below 100k and shit gets real uncomfortable, real fast!!!

[JKam]

Just curious but how can you tell someone has a purely mainland Chinese name? I mean a (fictional) name like Herman Hsin-Yi Wang could be from anywhere.

[GLOW]

Originally Posted by JKam

I mean a (fictional) name like Herman Hsin-Yi Wang could be from anywhere.

when you said fictional, i was expecting you to use Sum Ting Wong or Tap Sum Bong

[heleu]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

I always support some kind of restriction. Such as from singapore. Only citizen can purchase housing. Or have applications to allow international to purchase say no more than 5% of the total real estate being sold last year. That leaves local with a much much higher chance to purchase since housing price will be as high as it is now (mainly because the market will be much more quiet.) Also to stop the loophole the gov can even place heavy property tax, more GST on house purchase when you own more than one property. This will prevent someone who is not a citizen of Canada to get their relatives to purchase property for them.

If you haven't notice Vancouver is getting more and more crowded. Even our public school is getting full. I talk to a friend who works at a school recently they what she said was that for applicants who wants to apply to schools if you are renting, living in relatives house, or simply don't own the place you put on your application you get a different application. Those who live outside of the school network gets a different application form. What they are trying to do is give seats to those who actually own their property in that area first.

School crowding is dependent on where you live in the lower mainland. In Vancouver, Richmond, West/North Vancouver, student numbers have been decreasing over the past decade. In Langley/Surrey, Maple Ridge, the opposite is happening and the schools are over capacity.

It's just a sign that people are forced further south/east because young families tend not to be able to afford the more central areas.

[Traum]

On a very broad level, Mainland Chinese names tend to be spelled differently than Taiwanese, Hong Kong, or south Asian Chinese names.

For example, Zhang, Zhao, Xu, Jiang, Qin, etc. are almost certainly a Mainland Chinese last name. Chan, Cheung, Wong, Ho are more likely going to be people from Hong Kong or of Hong Kong descend. While both Mainland China and Taiwan use Mandarin, their romanization of last names are often different enough that you can tell them apart.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Traum

Sorry buddy, but I think your preception is simply not so:

From the Globe and Mail article:


With the top end RE unit scooped up by Mainland Chinese buyers, buyers move down the market to purchase cheaper units, with the irony that this move actually pushes market prices up. The end effect is that all buyers end up paying more, and this is what we are seeing in the inflated Vancouver RE market.

the terrible thing about Canadian real estate is lack of transparency - we just don't know.

This is a huge failure of our government

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by noclue

From what I heard the "foreigners" that buy up the most properties in BC are Albertans who are Canadians thus not restricted so it won't mitigate housing that much.

I believe in terms of who buys the most its:
1. Alberta
2. Americans
3. Chinese
4. Rest+

No way is this even close.

"Chinese money doesnt affect our real estate"

The people that are saying this are the same people that are saying that we would have a huge crash the last 3 years.

Its basically a given. Talk to anyone in real estate. Realtors, mortgage brokers, appraisers, people at landcor, land titles offices, people that work on construction or development, contractors. They wil say they see a lot of chinese names with zh or x etc and morr mainland chinese people buying. I have friends that work for developers and they sell over 60% of theor units to chinese people. Hell just look around your neighborhood and you will see lots mainland Chinese people. My neighbor down the street is from mainland china a nd just paid shietloads for a tear down and will be building a new mansion.

This isn't happening to just Vancouver. Its happening in other countries.

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by 4444

the terrible thing about Canadian real estate is lack of transparency - we just don't know.

This is a huge failure of our government

This is true.

But still, i know this is only anecdotal. But I have contacts at land titles and government agencies and they see it. The info is there right now but the gov just doesn't want to collect it.

[multicartual]

I am not afraid of the chinese

I am afraid of not having enough money to live a fun, enjoyable life in Vancouver

The good life, if you have a family, starts at 250k a year in Vancouver, IMO

You could survive on 100k with a family but nobody would be privileged at all

[iEatClams]

Also you guys should really go to developers websites. All of them have Chinese characters and translation. Or check out new subdivisions, showhomes or pre sale towers. Its basically an Asian smorgasbord.

[NKC ONE]

Originally Posted by noclue

Im curious though, how huskies bear HK summers?

Huskies that are born in HK have a much higher tolerance for heat than huskies that arn't born here. Its just that they got use to it and learned how to stay away from the heat. With that being said, it still doesn't make them the ultimate HK weather dog. I have A/C running for them whenever it reaches over 30C outside (which means at least half the year). I don't walk them until its late, cool, and the ground isn't hot anymore. I have to groom them every week just so their fur doesn't get too thick.

Its really tough for them here but fuckers still decide to breed them and sell them cuz they're cute as fuck when they're puppies. Then the owners decides that they ain't that cool no more when they reach a certain age and give it to a shelter. One of the bigger reasons why I hate it here is because of the people. I can stand the heat, the real estate prices, the traffic, the crowds, but what really grinds my gear is the people here. You guys might think mainlanders are bad but man honestly, nothing even close to how evil HKers can be.

[NKC ONE]

Originally Posted by multicartual

An enjoyable lifestyle in Vancouver just begins at 100k, trust me, I've had a roller coaster of income over the years and anything below 100k and shit gets real uncomfortable, real fast!!!

Sorry can't agree at all with you. I assume you're that JasonS2k from before right? Long time fan of your views of life. Although I do appreciate your way of living free, some stuff you say like "anything below 100k and shit gets real uncomfortable, real fast!!!" really can piss off a lot of people. That just isn't true.

How many people make under $100k in Van? I would probably say a big majority >95%. For all my friends who still live in Van, I can't name that many that bank $100k + annually before tax. Can you say that they're all really uncomfortable? I look and feel a lot more miserable than they do on any given day and that has nothing to do with income. Before I left, I was rolling in $10-12/hour and I lived quite happily and comfortably even with school, rent, and your typical living expenses. Yes that may have been in a simpler time when things were much cheaper but lets just say we double that to $22-24/hour to chase today's inflation. That will gross me around $46k/year which is still half of what your "uncomfortable" zone is.

The good things in life are free. That goes for having a child also. You may think there are a lot of costs associated but seriously, how do you think Mr. and Mrs. Santos next door can afford to have 3-4 kids with two parents working close to minimum wage and still be able to feed 2-4 grandparents that don't even work? Sometimes shit just works out and as long as your happy, none of that material shit really matters.

If all you do is whore, blow, party, drink then you'll never be able to "afford" any type of lifestyle no matter how much you make. Even multi-millionaires can go bankrupt by something as simple as an addiction to blow.

I know you're a cool dude who's trying to make it in book deals, porn, and dating rich older folks. I can respect the hustle but don't tell the rest of the population things that just ain't true and you know it. Would you care to tell us how much you net annually to give you that awesome perspective of who should/shouldn't have kids or should/shouldn't enjoy their shitty under $100k salary? Come on bro, be a man and quit lying to yourself. Still a fan of 90% of the shit you sling tho.