Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Alpine]

Originally Posted by supafamous

The intent is that they are rezoning the entire city (minus Shaughnessy which no one will touch) with 4plex allowed on standard 33' lots and 6plex on 50' (and higher lots. The current proposal has been blasted by housing advocates, builders, and outside planners as being entirely inadequate but the planners and current city council are pretty chicken shit and lazy so decent odds that this is what will end up passing next year.

What will likely then happen is that the provincial legislation will override the city's proposal which will make it all moot. Some cities will likely threaten to sue (and fail) while others will find ways to make it really hard to build more homes.

I'm really looking forward to how it changes Burnaby which is only 40% as dense as Vancouver meaning it has tonnes of upside for densification with little downside (it has shitloads of street parking for example).

Thanks. If this gets implemented en masse, it should keep a lid on land lift. But it’s a going to suck for current owners if these 4-6plexes start popping up randomly in your neighborhood. The city’s infrastructure won’t be able to handle it, but I suppose it’s not going to matter.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Great68

Keeping a fossil fuel backup heat system is going to only qualify you for partial provincial & federal rebates.

IMO dual fuel systems are not necessary in our climate now with Cold Climate Heat Pumps a thing. My new ccASHP had no issues with heating my house all winter with no other backup heat.

What was the cost of your Cold Climate Heat Pump, if you don't mind me asking? And did you also do a panel upgrade? As far as I understand it, we would get 3K from the province and we would get 4K from the feds with a dual fuel set up as the fed's program doesn't have a separate category for dual fuel systems.

Our panel is 125 amps, so the logic would be that if we have a dual fuel set up, we could probably get by without upgrading our panel.

[JDMDreams]

$2m for land and $2m to build +% is a lot of risk to hope to make 20%. Most average families won't have that much cash nor qualify to borrow that much. Not even sure if buddy guys can huddle together that much. It's a lot of money on the line for small players.

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Gerbs

You think people will start tearing down rundown 1990 to 2005 builds to make this?

600sqft units @ $750K Each x 2 = $1.5M
1,410qft units @ $1.6M Each x 2 = $3.2M

Easily $4-5M for the entire unit.

A rooftop patio space for the upper units would be sick, then lower garden for the 600sqft folks.

My parents have a 1993 built house on a 3600sf lot and we're already talking about tearing it down to do this as their plan was to move in with us in the next couple years. This would make for either a nice income stream for them or a big payday. My in-laws have a 100 year old house that's on a 4000sf lot so it's prime for this kind of redevelopment especially as it's next to Fraser.

Originally Posted by Alpine

Thanks. If this gets implemented en masse, it should keep a lid on land lift. But it’s a going to suck for current owners if these 4-6plexes start popping up randomly in your neighborhood. The city’s infrastructure won’t be able to handle it, but I suppose it’s not going to matter.

The proposed caps on size are intended to work with existing infrastructure (other than parking I suppose). The proposed caps are quite low compared to what's allowed now though - on a 33' lot today you can have 3 legal suites and usually there's a 4th (illegal) one spread over ~3400sf so you're looking at 8-12 people living on a lot. This proposal adds another 600sf and probably is still looking at a similar number of people but each person just owns their own space now so affordability improves a bit.

I'm guessing the province's legislation will actually force 6plexes on all of Vancouver which will actually increase the number of people living on each lot and make things pretty interesting.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by Gerbs

A rooftop patio space for the upper units would be sick, then lower garden for the 600sqft folks.

In before the flat roof / rooftop patio = terrible idea in Vancouver comment.

Originally Posted by supafamous

Building costs run $300-450/sf so $1.2-1.8m.

With a building cost of $1.2 - $1.8M, only developers and deep pocketed investors would be able to pull it off.

A suitable house for this (to get torn down and rebuild) is still going to cost $2 - $2.5M in CoV. Add the construction cost, and you're looking at having to spend $3.2 - $4.3M.

So you sell for $4 - $5M from the whole thing, and you turn in a $700k - $800k profit over the course of 12 - 18 months (of pure construction time). That leaves around a 12 - 18% per year profit?

But you need to start with $4M+ in the bank first. And then take on a lot of risks. And do a lot of work.

I'm not so sure whether it is still a good investment...

[westopher]

That's why if you're rich you get richer for just being rich. You don't even have to swing the hammer.

[bcedhk]

Originally Posted by supafamous

The proposed caps on size are intended to work with existing infrastructure (other than parking I suppose). The proposed caps are quite low compared to what's allowed now though - on a 33' lot today you can have 3 legal suites and usually there's a 4th (illegal) one spread over ~3400sf so you're looking at 8-12 people living on a lot. This proposal adds another 600sf and probably is still looking at a similar number of people but each person just owns their own space now so affordability improves a bit.

I'm guessing the province's legislation will actually force 6plexes on all of Vancouver which will actually increase the number of people living on each lot and make things pretty interesting.

Where do you see info that says the existing city infrastructure will be able to meet the demand of this new infill policy? If a whole block were to be converted into multiple fourplex, I'm pretty sure that will require substantial upgrades to stormwater.

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by bcedhk

Where do you see info that says the existing city infrastructure will be able to meet the demand of this new infill policy? If a whole block were to be converted into multiple fourplex, I'm pretty sure that will require substantial upgrades to stormwater.

When city staff were asked why they set the FAR to only 1.0 and not higher they said it was what the Engineering department said they could support without making changes to infrastructure. They got a lot of flak from housing advocates over this because they didn't even bother figuring out what would need to change if they aimed higher with FAR.

Daily Hive put it this way:

City staff explained they are pursuing gentle densification due to the capacity limits of expanding underground infrastructure, particularly sewers. A density increase to 1.0 FAR is deemed to be reasonable, and accounts for both the increase in sewage from the new homes and future added storm water runoff from climate change.

[bcedhk]

Originally Posted by Traum

In before the flat roof / rooftop patio = terrible idea in Vancouver comment.


With a building cost of $1.2 - $1.8M, only developers and deep pocketed investors would be able to pull it off.

A suitable house for this (to get torn down and rebuild) is still going to cost $2 - $2.5M in CoV. Add the construction cost, and you're looking at having to spend $3.2 - $4.3M.

So you sell for $4 - $5M from the whole thing, and you turn in a $700k - $800k profit over the course of 12 - 18 months (of pure construction time). That leaves around a 12 - 18% per year profit?

But you need to start with $4M+ in the bank first. And then take on a lot of risks. And do a lot of work.

I'm not so sure whether it is still a good investment...

I can foresee a lot of smaller investors being hit hard with hiring shitty designers/architects that add cost and delays to their project. So that 12-18% profit might be more like 4-8%...

[Great68]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

What was the cost of your Cold Climate Heat Pump, if you don't mind me asking? And did you also do a panel upgrade? As far as I understand it, we would get 3K from the province and we would get 4K from the feds with a dual fuel set up as the fed's program doesn't have a separate category for dual fuel systems.

Our panel is 125 amps, so the logic would be that if we have a dual fuel set up, we could probably get by without upgrading our panel.

I've recently posted about this, but I just replaced my 90's forced air oil furnace with a 3-ton Cold Climate heat pump.

Home Energy Evaluation (necessary to get Federal Grant): $650
Heat Pump Installation (included oil tank & furnace removal, I already have a 200amp panel and I did the electrical myself): $14,907
Post Retrofit Evaluation: $325
Federal Greener Homes Grant: -$5000
Federal Retrofit Evaluation Grant: -$600
Clean BC/BC Hydro Heat Pump Grant: -$6000
Saanich Heat Pump Grant: -$500
CRD "Group code" Heat Pump Grant: Varies by # in group, -$375


Total out of pocket: $3,407 (which I project will pay for itself in saved energy cost in probably 5 years.)

I'm a bit cheesed because in February the Feds announced a new additional "oil to heat pump" grant worth another $5000. Missed it by 6 months, my heat pump would have been virtually free, and I would have had another $1500 to spend on other energy retrofits.

I don't know how loaded your existing panel is. My unit only uses 30A breaker. If you do upgrade your panel, there's a rebate for that as well.

[Hakkaboy]

Originally Posted by supafamous

Here's a mockup from Lanefab based on the proposed zoning: https://twitter.com/Lanefab/status/1...085202432?s=20

It's 3 stories above ground with 4000sf in total so two 1400sf 2 story units sitting on top of two ~600sf units (the rest goes to stairs).

A 600sf unit rents for about $2k and a 1400sf unit rents for $4k so figure $12k/mo if you rent it all out. Market price to sell all 4 is around $4-5m. $$$$.

Building costs run $300-450/sf so $1.2-1.8m.

Sorry, I'm a bit out of touch. But is someone really going to rent what is essentially a basement suite for $2K per month? And this is assuming just some random east van place?

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Traum

With a building cost of $1.2 - $1.8M, only developers and deep pocketed investors would be able to pull it off.

A suitable house for this (to get torn down and rebuild) is still going to cost $2 - $2.5M in CoV. Add the construction cost, and you're looking at having to spend $3.2 - $4.3M.

So you sell for $4 - $5M from the whole thing, and you turn in a $700k - $800k profit over the course of 12 - 18 months (of pure construction time). That leaves around a 12 - 18% per year profit?

But you need to start with $4M+ in the bank first. And then take on a lot of risks. And do a lot of work. I'm not so sure whether it is still a good investment...

If you don't have a lot right now then it's totally developer territory in Van/Burnaby. If you have a lot like my parents and in-laws have then this becomes much more realistic for folks with a reasonably high level of earnings.

Keep in mind that what Vancouver is doing for 4plexes is likely what every lower mainland city will have to do b/c of provincial legislation so places with cheaper land like Langley or Maple Ridge become good fertile ground for small time "investors".

[supafamous]

Originally Posted by Hakkaboy

Sorry but I'm a bit out of touch. But is someone really got rent what is essentially a basement suite for $2K per month? And this is assuming just some random east van place?

Rents are insane in the lower mainland. The average 1 bedroom in Van/Burn is $2300/mo. There's a 500sf 1 bedroom by Joyce in a 20 year old building going for $2380 so these first floor 600sf units (they're at ground level) will easily go for $2k (probably more) considering they'll have a basic yard to go with it.

[westopher]

in 2011 when my wife moved here her basement suite in south Van was $700, and that included the nice Chinese family above her coming downstairs and knocking on her door occasionally with a plate of their family dinner. It's truly fucked where we are at now.

[68style]

I distinctly remember as little as 5 years ago, I would break even on my 1 bedroom + den condo if I rented it out between the mortgage + taxes + strata fee...

Now?? If I moved out and rented it out I'd be making like $500 a month+++ on top of all that being paid.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by Hakkaboy

Sorry, I'm a bit out of touch. But is someone really going to rent what is essentially a basement suite for $2K per month? And this is assuming just some random east van place?

If it's a new build 4plex and ground level as the picture shows. Then yes, the 600sqft unit is $2.2 - 2.6K/month if it's in mount pleasant / west side

If we're talking East Van, south Van by 29th or 49th and Fraser, then we're looking at $2 - 2.3K/month.

This is also 2023 rent prices, by the time this house is build in 2024, we're going higher baby! The reason is that you have less neighbors, elevators, above ground level, so you're essentially live in the 1st floor condo.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by westopher

in 2011 when my wife moved here her basement suite in south Van was $700, and that included the nice Chinese family above her coming downstairs and knocking on her door occasionally with a plate of their family dinner. It's truly fucked where we are at now.

Ahh, for what it's worth they still do that but closer to $1,300 - 1,700/month depending on how many windows you get. Basements with just the dinky window that's 30cm long on the ceiling is cheaper.

Originally Posted by 68style

I distinctly remember as little as 5 years ago, I would break even on my 1 bedroom + den condo if I rented it out between the mortgage + taxes + strata fee...

Now?? If I moved out and rented it out I'd be making like $500 a month+++ on top of all that being paid.

That's why us youngins are losing hope!

Over 80% of my friends have collectively decided that we are very likely moving to Asia/Calgary in the mid to long-term once we no longer have the itch to go out or be in a big city. Our greatest benefit is that we are one of the first generations to have remote work available worldwide. Downside is we can't stay where we grew up without stagnating our wealth and paying high cost of living.

[JDMDreams]

Is ground floor apartment with larger patio a desirable thing? Maybe it's a white people thing but Asians will be like, easy for a thief to come in. Then you gotta deal with cigarette butts, condoms being thrown on your balcony.

[westopher]

There's very little motivation to excel when your wages can increase by 100% and only get you 10% more than the original wage would have at its time. Imagine putting in the work of going from a 50k to a 100k a year job and it buying you the same lifestyle as the 55k a year job would have for you back then.

[westopher]

Originally Posted by JDMDreams

Is ground floor apartment with larger patio a desirable thing? Maybe it's a white people thing but Asians will be like, easy for a thief to come in. Then you gotta deal with cigarette butts, condoms being thrown on your balcony.

Depends on the neighbourhood. On Hastings, yeah sounds pretty bad. In North van backing onto a creek? Sounds pretty good.

[Alpine]

Originally Posted by Traum

In before the flat roof / rooftop patio = terrible idea in Vancouver comment.


With a building cost of $1.2 - $1.8M, only developers and deep pocketed investors would be able to pull it off.

A suitable house for this (to get torn down and rebuild) is still going to cost $2 - $2.5M in CoV. Add the construction cost, and you're looking at having to spend $3.2 - $4.3M.

So you sell for $4 - $5M from the whole thing, and you turn in a $700k - $800k profit over the course of 12 - 18 months (of pure construction time). That leaves around a 12 - 18% per year profit?

But you need to start with $4M+ in the bank first. And then take on a lot of risks. And do a lot of work.

I'm not so sure whether it is still a good investment...

Time for a revscene group buy. Each person throws in 50-500k and we can crowd find this easy.

[68style]

Originally Posted by JDMDreams

Is ground floor apartment with larger patio a desirable thing? Maybe it's a white people thing but Asians will be like, easy for a thief to come in. Then you gotta deal with cigarette butts, condoms being thrown on your balcony.

Same as westopher said, I love it because I face into the building's courtyard not the street... and it's Richmond... neither of those things are issues.

I can also just walk out my patio with my doggy whenever she needs to go out to the grass. No hallways or elevators is great.

I sometimes worry about a break-in, but again facing the courtyard I feel it's not too much risk.

[Eff-1]

There was some chatter a few pages back about strata fees. Watch out. I'm on our council and we're going the budgeting for next year and it's pretty wild what is happening right now.

Pretty much every trade and expense that we have to budget for has increased their rates any where from 5 - 10%, on top of last year's rate increases.

We have about 160 units. 3 individual low rise buildings. One elevator per building. One outdoor water feature. One gym. One party room. Our annual operating budget is about $1M. We charge about $0.45 psf.

Out of that $1M budget, we have to cover the following off the top of my head (all of which have increased rates, or about to increase rates):

- Building janitors/on site caretaker
- Carpet cleaning quarterly
- Snow removal
- Ongoing HVAC and building controls maintenance and repairs (this is a huge expense generally, it feels like every month there's some fan or some belt in some duct or something somewhere that needs replacing)
- Fire equipment testing and repairs (another huge expense, these systems are expensive, we just had our annual inspection and they found $10k in necessary repairs and we can't say no or defer because of the fire code requirements)
- Annual window washing
- Annual dryer vent cleaning
- Annual parkade cleaning
- Landscaping (we have a large parcel of land, so lots of landscaping, including ground floor townhome gardening)
- Elevator repairs (we have a locked in maintenance contract, but the hourly rates for repairs keep going up)
- Garbage removal (another one that keeps going up, and they always are blaming the increase in tipping fees from Metro Van)
- Insurance policy was $200k last year, so about 20% of our annual budget
- Hydro for common areas
- Gas for the stoves in units
- Hot water for the building
- Internet for the caretaker
- We pay for I think 12 different phone lines. 7 enterphones, 3 elevators, the fire system, and probably another one or two i'm forgetting.
- Security cameras/key fob system maintenance and repairs
- Ongoing electrical repairs and maintenance

I'm sure I'm forgetting something else. Pretty much all of that has gone up in price.

Keep in mind our building is less than 5 years old, so this is all just ongoing maintenance of a relatively new property.

Luckily we've had a good council to date of young professionals and a tax lawyer, so we stay on top of our books and our budget planning. Last year was our first ever strata fee increase of 7%. Up to then we've never had to increase fees since the building was completed in 2020 thanks to prudent budgeting and cost management.

My biggest worry is what if a council comprises a bunch of randos who don't understand finance at all, and because of that alone, strata fees are impacted (because nobody knows what they are doing). I could see that could be very big problem for some stratas since it's all volunteer driven and the people you end up with is the luck of the draw.

The nice thing about a house is you get to control your own expenses and decide what you want to defer, DIY, etc.

With a strata you don't get that flexibility generally speaking. That's ultimately why I volunteer to be on the council, so at least I have vision and can provide input into what's going on, and am not just paying a bill without having any control over it (like you would have with a house).

[68style]

Most AGM's were last week, I wasn't able to attend mine but I expect to get a shitty email soon telling me how much my strata fees have gone up. It was a big jump last year and I expect the same this year.

My buddy lives a couple buildings down from me in a really new tower... it was CRAZY what happened in his place, the entire council got hostile taken over last year by a penthouse owner using fake proxy voters, elected a council of basically all people from China who are friends of his who own units but don't even live in the building, they then proceeded to tear up all the budget proposals, refused any increases, can't pay their bills, can't cover insurance... it's a fucking disaster and not a thing they can do about it, the building is going to implode in on itself. They conducted all their council meetings for the entire year exclusively in Mandarin. He put his unit up for sale and can't get out of their fast enough. Businesses that did work for the building are putting liens against it and shit... insanity.

I know of another complex in Richmond where an owner has hired a strata lawyer to sue the council because they are syphoning money out of the building... it's getting pretty mental out there.

[van_driver]

My strata this year went from $550/month to $620/month

it was at $380/month in 2018