Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[supafamous]

Whether transit sucks or not can really depend on where you live and where you need to go - if you're near Skytrain and need to go somewhere near Skytrain it's mostly as good as any other system in the world. No system in the world has the same frequency level as Skytrain and reliability is up there as well. For example, I can get downtown from home as quickly by transit as I can by car and I live a 12 min walk from Patterson - this is fantastic service.

The further away you are from it the worse the system but you could say the same about every cities' system.

I've tried the systems of Tokyo, London, New York, HK, Paris, Sydney, and a whole bunch of other smaller cities and I'm not embarrassed at our transit system for the size of city we have. I'd also love to see way more investment though - let's double the Skytrain network in particular.

[Tapioca]

People who say that the transit system "sucks" probably live in the suburbs that were designed for cars.

The bus system is actually quite good in Vancouver proper. Why would the bus service be good in say Westwood Plateau, by comparison, when there's literally one arterial road for the whole mountain with a bunch of 8000 square foot detached lots? Whenever I'm in the city, the buses run frequently enough on the major roads that you don't have to wait more than 10 minutes to get to another neighbourhood.

The Skytrain runs every 2-3 minutes during peak hours. That's pretty good. It's crowded because there's enough people out there who can actually structure their lives and daily activities around it.

Sure other cities like NYC, HK, and London have massive public transit systems. No one here is willing to accept the tradeoffs to live in those cities with higher density than Vancouver, such as apartment living or foregoing personal automobile ownership.

It seems that everyone wants a detached house with a 10 minute commute by car to work...

[supafamous]

BTW: Other than the Canada Line Skytrain has plenty of built-in capacity as well - if I recall correctly they can "easily" double capacity (more trains, more frequency) if they needed to with the current platforms. I think they could even go to 3x current capacity if needed but it'd require compromises (like the doors at the end wouldn't open). Canada Line is a bit of a mess but can also be doubled by opening up the station walls.

This leaves us in pretty good shape for at least another 30-40 years (probably more) and it can definitely deal with any increase in density near transit that could possibly happen. Just gotta spend the money which will come with the bigger tax base.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by AstulzerRZD

If I moved back to Van and my income got hella slashed.... here's how I'd beat the odds
1) Work hospitality in my free time off the backs of my parents connections. With the goal of securing funding and access to other business opportunities:
Weekday & weekend nights: serve/bartend where real estate/entrepreneur peeps hangout
Weekend mornings: work a private club/golf club

2) Really try to optimize where I live for meeting other people tryna make a move or two
Building with a communal rooftop that people hangout at & has event space for me to host regular cocktail events
Location has to be downtown - opportunity cost for fitness/dating/social life is too high otherwise

3) No car (300 payment, 200 insurance, 200 gas would be like half of rent), or an Abarth/MX-5 beater if I need a car for work. Modo ND2 Miata will do for date nights.

Everything is so meta, I completely think the same.

Meeting more peeps = give you the opportunity to be in private deals that can help generate ROI > ETFs. Also helps if you don't have the sufficient capital to start projects on your own like opening an entertainment space. Everything is 2-5x the cost in 2023 vs 2010, lowering the risk by having friends that can go in on opportunity is nice.

I originally bought my place because the bigger private patio in my unit allowed me to host more dinners / parties. That probably allowed me 6-8x my social circle from 2020 vs 2023. Major game changer to optimize your living space for dating / social life.

I would've also bought the Abarth for the optimal cost / fun ratio after I totaled the RSX-S. It was going for almost $15-18K in 2021. New car's 5-6 year depreciation curve was the exact same as a used Abarth.

So hard to make it, but can also be so easy if you're smart/plan it. You're probably in the top 0.01% of people our age though

[quasi]

I had to go to a job site near Science World today and I'm near Langley. I decided because the parking sucks I'd park at Scott Road and take the train, it's been a long time since I rode the skytrain probably 15 years? I will say that once at the station it was pretty convenient , with parking and fare it cost me $16.05. It was just me today, if it was say myself and a co-worker going to a meeting it makes way more sense to drive.

If I had to take the bus to get to the train, fuck that noise. The extended skytrain line will be a 15 minute walk from my house once finished so that might be an option down the road if I need to get somewhere near the skytrain however it's not something I'd do everyday and if I had to I'd move or find a new job.

[supafamous]

https://financialpost.com/news/econo...-high-for-good

Hearing more and more rumblings that we should expect interest rates to stay this high for a long time, best case is that it drops 1% but that might be it.

The Bank of Canada’s No. 2 official urged preparation for interest rates staying elevated for longer.

Senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said households and businesses in Canada should ready themselves for an era of borrowing costs higher than over the past 15 years, given the run-up in interest rates since the middle of 2021.

“It’s not hard to see a world where interest rates are persistently higher than what people have grown used to,” Rogers said in prepared remarks in Vancouver.

Structural forces that were keeping borrowing costs low look to have peaked and may be reversing, Rogers said, adding that higher government debt and geopolitical risks have the potential to push rates around the world even higher.

Rising longer-term borrowing costs are adding to debt service costs for businesses and individuals, Rogers said, leaving “less wiggle room” for the financial system in the event of a shock, like another sharp tightening of financial conditions.

“As a small, open economy, Canada likely wouldn’t be immune if severe global stress were to re-emerge and persist.”

Some Canadians are feeling pressured as they contend with both higher inflation and higher interest rates, she said, and are struggling to deal with existing debt. With 40 per cent of mortgage holders already seeing their shorter-duration mortgages renew at higher interest rates, Rogers said officials are watching how households adjust.

“By the end of 2026, virtually all remaining mortgage holders will go through a renewal cycle and, depending on the path for interest rates, may face significantly higher payments.”

Rogers said banks and financial institutions are keeping bigger capital and liquidity buffers, and are putting more cash aside as a “proactive adjustment” to contend with possible credit losses.

While Rogers made clear her comments weren’t meant to be predictive in terms of the path for the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, the speech also adds to evidence policymakers increasingly see borrowing costs as less restrictive. The bank held its key rate at five per cent for the second straight meeting in October, citing mounting evidence of a slowing economy despite increased inflation risks.

Speaking to lawmakers last week, governor Tiff Macklem said the neutral rate — the theoretical level of interest rates that is neither restrictive nor stimulative — was probably drifting higher, and he admitted he wasn’t comfortable with the bank’s decision to leave the range for the neutral rate between two per cent and three per cent in their annual review earlier this year.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by supafamous

https://financialpost.com/news/econo...-high-for-good

Hearing more and more rumblings that we should expect interest rates to stay this high for a long time, best case is that it drops 1% but that might be it.

Hahaha... the same BoC who said they were going to keep the interest low until after 2023?!

If history is any indication, it's either staying flat for a while. But usually when central bank starts dropping rates, it's when their data is showing them that recession is coming and they need to drop rates to prop up the economy.

Whatever BoC is saying is just what they want the market to hear. Do you think they'd say something like "oh, we are going to drop the rate hard next year"? What do you expect consumers to react? Hold on to their spending until next year when rate drops?

[JDMDreams]

Yea I think we're fucked at this rate if they hold. People getting laid off = no money, no money = no spending = bad economy = more lay off it's gonna be a death spiral. Where the gov gonna cough up the ei? No job = no income tax for the gov, where are they gonna get money for Ukrainian women? How's the jobless gonna pay $2000 a month more for their mortgage. Last thing they want is a housing collapse a year before the election. We're already in a recession, just let's ee how hard the landing is. Canadian tire laid off like 3% of their work force stating bad sales, and they had a good year just one year ago when everyone was revenge buying bikes and everything was sold out.

[MarkyMark]

There's going to be a lot of people who locked in at like 2% coming to an end the next couple years when their mortgage is up that will be paying $1000+ a month extra if rates stay as is so shit will get interesting

[westopher]

Yeah, the canary in the coal mine isn't nearly far enough down to determine what's happening yet. Like 15% of people with mortgages are fucked by the rate hikes so far, imagine what's going to happen when it's 50, 60 and so forth.

[Badhobz]

Originally Posted by JDMDreams

Canadian tire laid off like 3% of their work force stating bad sales, and they had a good year just one year ago when everyone was revenge buying bikes and everything was sold out.

man i knew i shouldnt have returned my trolling motor. thats probably what did it

[Gerbs]

It's interesting how if you have $1- 2.5M+ net worth, you're mostly immune to recession. If you lose your job you're fine for awhile. Lifestyle might suck for a bit but never hungry nor homeless.

[hud 91gt]

Net worth has nothing to do with it. Maybe net debt. It’a all about risk and leverage. A person with a higher net worth likely has less risk, but that certainly is no guarantee. See “Westbank.”

[lowside67]

Originally Posted by hud 91gt

Net worth has nothing to do with it. Maybe net debt. It’a all about risk and leverage. A person with a higher net worth likely has less risk, but that certainly is no guarantee. See “Westbank.”

Net worth is assets minus liabilities. In the context of a person/family, it is reasonable to assume they could choose to sell assets, pay off debts, and still have approximately that same figure left over as they started with, so I think it's pretty fair to say if you have a significant net worth, you have a pretty limited risk.

For a business, it's not as simple since you often have contractual obligations (such as Westbank's obligation to build the buildings they have taken deposits for, etc) that mean you couldn't as easily just purify back to nothing but cash in an account.

-Mark

[sonick]

Originally Posted by lowside67

Net worth is assets minus liabilities.

Not if you ask PeanutButter lol

[RabidRat]

Originally Posted by Gerbs

It's interesting how if you have $1- 2.5M+ net worth, you're mostly immune to recession. If you lose your job you're fine for awhile. Lifestyle might suck for a bit but never hungry nor homeless.

Assuming you're willing to either refinance or downsize your home (counter to the PeanutButter Principle).

[JDMDreams]

No one is getting qualified to refinance with no income, qualifying rate is still like 9.5% for a heloc. Ain't nobody qualifying now let alone when they get laid off on ei. A $100k heloc is nothing even if your house is worth $3m. They don't look at asset value just income to qualify. If they did, all Asian see Lais will have $1.5m helocs on their east van shacks.

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by RabidRat

Assuming you're willing to either refinance or downsize your home (counter to the PeanutButter Principle).

Having the option to refi, downsize, and moving to medium or lower cost of living is wayyy better than the opposite spectrum of figuring out if you'll be negative upon mortgage renewal / eviction.


My direct neighbour on my floor is an admin clerk / executive assistant, parents got him the condo at $330K in 2013 by putting $30K down and he pays mortgage. Mortgage only has $180k remaining but it's going from $700 > $1,513 a month.

He's clearing close to $52K or $3,500 after taxes a month after the raise this year. He signed a used A4 for about a $20K loan and he's pretty much pay cheque to pay cheque and possibly upside down in 1 year without a new job.

If things goes to shits, he can always sell, cash in the $300K assuming parents are okay with that and still be able to rent + eat for the next 10-20years depending how frugal you live. That ability to leave / downsize is nice. The renter would probably need to cop a 2-3 BR tent at MEC ASAP.

[Hondaracer]

You’d be a fool not to do everything in your power to keep that condo in his case. Even taking on a room mate etc. would he better than the alternative

[Gerbs]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

You’d be a fool not to do everything in your power to keep that condo in his case. Even taking on a room mate etc. would he better than the alternative

You think so?

I can foresee, cashing out equity at $300K @ 6% ROI = $18K/year. Renting @ $1,000-1,250 basement shared or $1,500 condo w roomie. Rebuying later when your income is higher.

Turning that condo to equity boosts his income from $52K > $70K. Lifestyle is important too, can't be living pay cheque to pay cheque if you don't have to.

[KayC]

Originally Posted by Gerbs

Having the option to refi, downsize, and moving to medium or lower cost of living is wayyy better than the opposite spectrum of figuring out if you'll be negative upon mortgage renewal / eviction.


My direct neighbour on my floor is an admin clerk / executive assistant, parents got him the condo at $330K in 2013 by putting $30K down and he pays mortgage. Mortgage only has $180k remaining but it's going from $700 > $1,513 a month.

He's clearing close to $52K or $3,500 after taxes a month after the raise this year. He signed a used A4 for about a $20K loan and he's pretty much pay cheque to pay cheque and possibly upside down in 1 year without a new job.

If things goes to shits, he can always sell, cash in the $300K assuming parents are okay with that and still be able to rent + eat for the next 10-20years depending how frugal you live. That ability to leave / downsize is nice. The renter would probably need to cop a 2-3 BR tent at MEC ASAP.

Honestly, this resonates with me a bit since I've been constantly thinking about moving to a lower cost of living city. Currently, in my situation as a family of 3 (with a toddler), we operate on a single income household. I am fortunate to be in the tech industry and still have a well-paying remote job from SF/US, netting 12k a month after taxes, cpp, ei, etc. Currently, I pay almost 5k a month for my mortgage (it increased from 2.7k to 5k due to variable rates; I know I should have locked it in when I had the chance).

With my current income, it's still definitely doable. However, the uncertainty of my longevity in the tech industry is a concern. Its getting harder and harder to land remote US tech jobs and if i get laidoff and if I can only land a local tech job, my pay will most likely get slashed in half, making it seem impossible to cover our current mortgage and other expenses. Therefore, we've been contemplating a move to Calgary—selling our current place and pocketing 700-750k after paying back the mortgage. We would then purchase an 800-900k place in Calgary, resulting in a very small mortgage. It will allow us to go from a townhouse to a detached house as well.

If I continue working at my current job in Calgary, we will be very comfortable. In the event of a layoff, there's no need to worry; I can take a less-paying job and still be able to cover the mortgage and living expenses, etc.

[Hondaracer]

You’re assuming absolute best case scenario for someone who already sounds like he’s bad with money.

For many people, while your ROI may not be the best it could be, I think having a roof over your head and the requirement to keep paying for that roof is a better scenario than having a lump of cash and either renting/moving back in with his parents. He’s already in a better scenario than most.

I know a few people I grew up with who inherited homes from dead parents and probably sold them for 650-800k thinking they could do better with the money. Every single one of those people are just dead beat losers now basically couch surfing. Some of them bought expensive trucks, others put it up their nose, some both.

Having a commitment to pay a bill on a regular basis keeps a lot of people in check

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Gerbs

You think so?

I can foresee, cashing out equity at $300K @ 6% ROI = $18K/year. Renting @ $1,000-1,250 basement shared or $1,500 condo w roomie. Rebuying later when your income is higher.

Turning that condo to equity boosts his income from $52K > $70K. Lifestyle is important too, can't be living pay cheque to pay cheque if you don't have to.

If I were this person, I would rather keep the apartment and find a way to make more money. Even if his job was a public sector job with a defined benefit pension, he's gotta find a way to make more money, even with Vancouver's typical lower wages. At the very least, he should sell the A4 and find a used Civic or something (or if he's a glutton for punishment, a proper German car like an E46/E90 BMW that could be had for like $5K).

Renting a basement and driving a used A4 = only in Vancouver...

[MarkyMark]

If you're already cash strapped and buying a used Audi you should probably do whatever you can to keep your money parked into something you can't touch.

[JDMDreams]

I think he can go back to the lender and see if he can restretch his mtg back to original amortization so his payments go back down.