Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[crew08]

Well. Anyone interested my wife works for cibc. Her current lowest is 2.89 @ 5 year fixed. Obviously depending on current credit or what not. [emoji6]. Msg me if interested.

[iEatClams]

With East Van houses now selling for $1.6 million plus and the minimum sfd in Van now going for 700K. Can we have a serious conversation about curbing foreign money inflow to real estate?



It's going to be a detriment to the economy when your middle class folks like electricians, fire fighters, teachers, accountants etc cant afford to live here. Yes there are economic gains from this but there are also social costs as well.

I don't think our politicians are open to even discuss, not take action, but discuss the topic.

Here's a good article on how other cities are facing the same problem:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/...ticle21975441/

Housing lessons from San Francisco

It would serve us well to take note of what’s happening with our neighbours.

Vancouver’s soaring real estate market is only part of a West Coast phenomenon. The wealthy elite is going bonkers in its demand for new and bigger houses. Los Angeles is seeing its luxury housing market go into a supersize mode never seen before. Always an enclave for the rich, the neighbourhood of Bel-Air is seeing good houses that are 15,000 to 20,000 square feet in area torn down and replaced with houses that are a whopping 60,000 to 70,000 square feet.

L.A. Councilman Paul Koretz’s district includes Bel-Air and Hollywood. He says in all his years on council, it never would have occurred to him that people would need homes three times bigger than the original.

“It’s being driven by a lot of international wealth,” he says. “A lot of different economies are coming up, and they all think they should have a home in the U.S., and if they can have one, it’s going to be Bel-Air.

“Things are just going crazy,” he says.

It’s so crazy that a unanimous city council voted last month to put an emergency moratorium on demolitions in crisis areas.

“After that, it will take about 18 months for an ordinance to cover the whole city to tighten up the mansionization rules,” Mr. Koretz says. “It really has become an emergency situation.”


Photographs from 1974 capture a classic San Francisco Victorian building being moved. Photo by Craig Buchanan.
Mr. Koretz’s district includes middle-class areas that are under siege from an influx of wealthy property investors. Vancouver’s west side will relate. In L.A., developers are razing charming old Spanish-style bungalows in favour of giant boxes. Angelinos refer to the practice as “mansionization.” The issue has driven anti-monster house activists to protest at real estate open houses. There are reports of residents that have tossed full doggy waste bags onto the lawns of offending big house homeowners.

Los Angeles and San Francisco are also grappling with new density and wealth at a rate that seems, at times, impossible to manage.

In Vancouver, we have our backlash against bulky new arts-and-crafts-style houses that are replacing smaller character homes. In L.A., it’s the faux Tuscans that are raising eyebrows.

The building of massive new homes right up to the property line has caused major blowouts in some L.A. neighbourhoods. Residents have lost privacy, sunlight and views as a result. Vancouver has restrictions against that sort of thing. But in West Vancouver there is the case of a little house currently under siege because of a massive land clearing all the way up to its property line. We covered that story a few weeks ago.

In San Francisco, residents say they’re losing their community as real estate investors evict tenants in favour of more lucrative Airbnb guests. Why deal with long-term tenants when you can make more money from transient out-of-towners?

I was walking around San Francisco a few weeks ago, and as always, I envied the picturesque, intact old neighbourhoods. But then I talked with Mike Buhler, the executive director of San Francisco Architectural Heritage. He says the city’s enviable stock of Victorian houses is under threat of that bête noir known as façadism. Façadism is when a builder guts the house and only leaves the front wall standing, often the only part protected by heritage laws.

New homeowners are stripping away the old architectural interior details, such as wainscoting and coffered ceilings. They are refinishing their homes with the contemporary white-on-white look instead.

“Even if you have a completely intact interior with woodwork and wood panelling from the early 20th century, there is no regulatory protection,” Mr. Buhler says. “It is an increasingly common occurrence to see façadism, especially when there is an influx of wealthy new residents.”

Vancouver is feeling the pressure of new wealth, both domestic and foreign. California’s cities are feeling the pressure of a rebounded economy after the 2008 downturn. Also, there’s that tech-industry megaboom, a powerful group. In San Francisco, there’s an emerging class of wealthy young people who work for local companies such as Twitter. Developers are responding by providing double sinks, walk-in closets and app-controlled alarm systems.

“It sounds like Vancouver, in the respect that they want all the modern amenities of a contemporary home,” Mr. Buhler says. “But they also want to live in an established urban neighbourhood with historic character.”

Vancouver civic historian John Atkin says all desirable cities are facing an influx of wealth. The situation is testing heritage preservation, as well as affordability. In London, there is a bizarre trend toward subterranean living, nicknamed “iceberg houses.”

Developers are building three or four stories below ground level. It means they can add square footage while following height restrictions, Mr. Atkin says.

“You are seeing the phenomenon now of that desire to live in the central city. But cities are forcing homeowners to have to deal with heritage laws and they are not thrilled with it.

“They want to bend that poor old house into something it was never meant to be.”

For San Francisco, it isn’t its first go-round with sweeping change. Mr. Buhler’s organization formed in 1971 in response to the demolition of a swath of important Victorian houses. San Francisco has a long history of heritage activism that is still strong today, he says. But his job description has broadened over the years to include affordability and density. San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee has set up a task force devoted to creating affordable housing in the form of tens of thousands of new units, for all income levels, Mr. Buhler says.

“It’s a hot topic of discussion – we’re seeing in certain parts of the city lots of new Vancouver-style, tall, slender residential towers.

“Of course, the concern among many is that the new housing units will be market rate. And they won’t impact affordability and provide housing for middle-class residents, like teachers and firemen,” he adds.

He could be talking about Vancouver.

San Francisco and Vancouver have many parallels, but drastic differences, too. Houses aren’t coming down to the tune of three or four a day, like they are in Vancouver.

“I think that’s because we have a pretty highly evolved preservation protection. The planning department in the city has many staff dedicated to just preservation issues. Five years ago, through voter initiative, we created a historic preservation commission that has new powers. Before, it was just an advisory board hat had no regulatory authority.”

San Francisco Heritage is also taking a pro-active approach by including the tech sector in the discussion. Community leaders are attempting to get a conversation going with the wealthy new demographic. For example, Mr. Buhler’s group held an event with Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey.

“There is resentment aimed at tech for being the cause of the increase in property values. That’s the perception,” he says. “And Jack Dorsey acknowledged that is the key challenge. How do you provide more density without sacrificing the San Francisco we know and love?”

Then there are the tax breaks, another difference.

San Francisco already benefits from the locally administered Mills Act, which offers a major tax incentive to protect old buildings. In exchange, historic property owners commit to maintaining and improving their property for 10 years.

“The Mills Act adjusts the property tax assessment to reflect the actual use of the site, rather than the market value based on comparable sales. For just improved or recently purchased properties, this alternative assessment method will often result in a property tax reduction of 50 per cent or more,” Mr. Buhler says.

A 50-per-cent tax break is a big carrot for any homeowner. And a task force set up to address issues such as affordable housing and density is a pro-active measure – as opposed to pushing through with more development, no matter the social cost.

[flagella]

https://www.scribd.com/doc/249306631/The-Big-Short-II

Not Vancouver-specific but overall Canada. Not the prettiest presentation and does have some flaws. Nonetheless, still provides decent amount of info. Don't mind the trading strategy part near the end.

[jing]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

New homeowners are stripping away the old architectural interior details, such as wainscoting and coffered ceilings. They are refinishing their homes with the contemporary white-on-white look instead.

A customer of ours plans to do this very thing to his beautiful character home in the Shaughnessy area. Pretty much a full interior tear down. The house can probably be registered as a heritage building as it is in good shape considering it was built in 1925. I almost cringed when he was telling us about it. Why ruin a classic?

[Marshall Placid]

Just my two cents... since this thread was revived since last month (Nov. 6).


I remember reading an article, a few years ago, that about 25% of home-buyers, had help from their parents.

Now, I must stress I am not for or against help.

That is not the point of my post here.

Fast forward to this year, and I remember reading an article that now, about 75% of home-buyers have help from parents for buying a house.

My two cents, really, is that once the source of help from parents dry up, or once that percentage gets closer to 99% (or whatever), then we'll have a big problem with the real estate prices (as in stagnation or decreases).

There will be fewer buyers to soak up the mid range to lower range market.

Of course, other factors definitely contribute to the ups and downs of the real estate market, but I'm focusing solely on parental help in my post.

[R1CED`]

Clams, that was a good read.

Home-owning is the last thing on my mind as I'll be furthering my education but even I'd consider skipping town when I come close to settling down.

If I'm going to pay a premium on everything, might as well be SoCal's sunshine tax where it's not doom/gloom rain for majority of the year. Think about it, you can enjoy your car year-round and not having to store your weekend car for half a year. You don't get raped by gas/insurance prices. It doesn't have to be LA where the traffic is garbage...'burbs with young families would be fine. I don't mind cookiecutter homes, not like vancouver's any more diverse. Job situation for young professionals won't be drastically different...that probably goes for a lot of field unless you're in the tech or hospitality industry. Income tax will be splitting hairs but there's less BS taxes in general. I have immediate family in the US and it shocks me how much more we pay for day-to-day stuff even if it's not straight apples to apples comparsion. I don't go skiing or downhill biking much so I'm not missing out much the PNW has to offer....sure I will miss some friends and diverse food/cheap sushi...that's about it. Healthcare is fine as long as you're not working class w/o a plan and I can always come back if need be...you actually get better care in US with a decent plan. Did I mention affordable airfare not just limited to smelly Alligiant?

Grass is greener on the other side (pun unintended) and I'm sure I'm naively forgetting other invisible factors but in before someone says shit food for the masses and exposing oneself to gun violence (though Cali has stupid strict gun laws).

I'm in my mid-20's and obviously only been in the workforce for a few years. I'm far from worldly but I've had a good chunk of childhood in asia and have quite a few Amerifriends. I've lived here for most of my life but all the little things that irk me adds up are making me question if it's actually worth the premium.

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by Marshall Placid

Just my two cents... since this thread was revived since last month (Nov. 6).


I remember reading an article, a few years ago, that about 25% of home-buyers, had help from their parents.

Now, I must stress I am not for or against help.

That is not the point of my post here.

Fast forward to this year, and I remember reading an article that now, about 75% of home-buyers have help from parents for buying a house.

My two cents, really, is that once the source of help from parents dry up, or once that percentage gets closer to 99% (or whatever), then we'll have a big problem with the real estate prices (as in stagnation or decreases).

There will be fewer buyers to soak up the mid range to lower range market.

Of course, other factors definitely contribute to the ups and downs of the real estate market, but I'm focusing solely on parental help in my post.

This thread titled should be change, my previous posts in 2013 mentioned I believe the market will be decreasing this year. Boy was I wrong, it's one of the hottest years in real estate, commercial, residential et all. it's going up a good 10-15% in most areas.

I think the parents helping home-buyers tend to be more prevalent in the condo market. The newly built condos keep getting smaller and smaller with higher strata fees.

But the single family home market is mostly affected by two main players: builders and chinese buyers. You have builders buying tear downs and building mansions they get sold to the mainland chinese. Or sometimes the chinese just buy the lot and hire a builder to tear it down and build a new mansion. I don't think any of these guys will care if interest rates go up or all the regular factors that affect us middle class folks.


Some of the homes in south burnaby sold for over $2million. Just the lot value for a tear down in metrotown area is now $1million.

so many big stocky homes coming up this year.

I guess I'm just mind-blown how more out of wack our real estate is here in Vancouver.

[Lomac]

Changed the thread title. The "bubble" part of it was annoying me as well.

[quasi]

Originally Posted by R1CED`

Clams, that was a good read.

Home-owning is the last thing on my mind as I'll be furthering my education but even I'd consider skipping town when I come close to settling down.

If I'm going to pay a premium on everything, might as well be SoCal's sunshine tax where it's not doom/gloom rain for majority of the year. Think about it, you can enjoy your car year-round and not having to store your weekend car for half a year. You don't get raped by gas/insurance prices. It doesn't have to be LA where the traffic is garbage...'burbs with young families would be fine. I don't mind cookiecutter homes, not like vancouver's any more diverse. Job situation for young professionals won't be drastically different...that probably goes for a lot of field unless you're in the tech or hospitality industry. Income tax will be splitting hairs but there's less BS taxes in general. I have immediate family in the US and it shocks me how much more we pay for day-to-day stuff even if it's not straight apples to apples comparsion. I don't go skiing or downhill biking much so I'm not missing out much the PNW has to offer....sure I will miss some friends and diverse food/cheap sushi...that's about it. Healthcare is fine as long as you're not working class w/o a plan and I can always come back if need be...you actually get better care in US with a decent plan. Did I mention affordable airfare not just limited to smelly Alligiant?

Grass is greener on the other side (pun unintended) and I'm sure I'm naively forgetting other invisible factors but in before someone says shit food for the masses and exposing oneself to gun violence (though Cali has stupid strict gun laws).

I'm in my mid-20's and obviously only been in the workforce for a few years. I'm far from worldly but I've had a good chunk of childhood in asia and have quite a few Amerifriends. I've lived here for most of my life but all the little things that irk me adds up are making me question if it's actually worth the premium.

Problem is moving to the US to work is not an option for most Canadians. If you can do it all the power, I know if I could I would. My mom has Duel Citizenship unfortunately it ends at her. Getting a Visa isn't exactly an easy exercise.

[noclue]

God I hate people whining about foreigners and Chinese as if they affect the WHOLE vancouver real estate market. It's more due to cheap interest rates and relaxed downpayments due to CMHC.

Can't wait till the day interest rates spike to prove that assumption wrong.

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

Some of the homes in south burnaby sold for over $2million. Just the lot value for a tear down in metrotown area is now $1million.

so many big stocky homes coming up this year.

If this is true, how much do you think it cost this person to buy the plot of land. I believe they said 2.3 acre.

Michael Bublé rumoured to be building luxury home in Burnaby | Globalnews.ca

Going to have an NHL sized indoor rink too.

[Mr.C]

Part of the problem is the obsession with owning a home. Rent isn't too bad here in Vancouver.

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by noclue

God I hate people whining about foreigners and Chinese as if they affect the WHOLE vancouver real estate market. It's more due to cheap interest rates and relaxed downpayments due to CMHC.

Can't wait till the day interest rates spike to prove that assumption wrong.

Yes, cheap interest rates do play a major role. But the same thing has been said about the housing market in vancouver for the last 4 years. It's going to crash, guess what? it hasn't. same thing is also being said about foreign buyers: they dont affect the market.

Those in the industry, myself included, know that foreign money has a huge part, foreign money (not buyers, as a lot of the chinese have Perm Residency and live here now, so technically they are not foreign, but the source of the money is foreign). Most of the sales are from people with foreign money nowadays.

I can't release data that can't be made public to prove it. But seriously guys, just go talk to any of your friends that work for developers, brokers, realtors, land titles offices, bc assessment, etc and they will tell you the same. Hell just go to open houses and walk around your neighbourhoods.

CHMC was a huge contributor to the increase in prices but that doesn't even matter that much anymore at this point. CMHC don't even lend to properties over $1 million, which now the majority of Vancouver is.

I'm not saying the foreign money is THE factor, but to say it doesn't have a major impact is wrong. Cheap money and easy lending are obviously the biggest factors, but the foreign money makes certain cities increase way more than others. Rate increases don;t affect the super rich that can afford $1 M + for a tear down.

[4444]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

I can't release data that can't be made public to prove it. .

yes you can, you choose not to (assuming you have it and not just making baseless claims like so many), this site is great due to anonymity.

This is actually one of the biggest issues, lack of transparency, no one except insiders have any real information, anything released has been cleansed and manipulated.

i would never make a $500K, 900K, etc. decision when I know there should be more transparent information - it's out there in the US, so why not here.

but this is now a double edged sword as real estate is now a bigger part of the canadian economy than it ever has been, bigger than when the US market tanked (not saying they're the same, just pointing out a fact) and given mortgages are backed by taxpayers (CMHC), there is a clear conflict of interest here from the government's side.

definitely food for thought, no?

[iEatClams]

^ you can say that, I have integrity and cant release the names of the deals that my friends or colleagues work with. or lists of purchasers who purchased, it's private information.

I agree it is a big issue, the data is out there, private companies cant release for obvious reasons (see above). But what bugs me is why the bc government or the cities cant release it. The data is there and is easy to get.

You can't trust data from RE organizations or real estate boards because they represent the realtors and have a vested interest. But governments and cities are suppose to represent the peoples interest, and they should release info to allow us to vote for policies. But I guess Gregor and vision are too deep in developers pockets.

I don't see why other major cities in Australia and Singapore have already placed restrictions on foreign money and admitting that it does play a role in real estate, yet Vancouver and co cant even begin the discussion on it.

For me it doesn't really matter if it goes up or down. I do own a couple properties (purchased in 2009 and 2010 after the correction) so if the market goes up, great. But I just think it hurts the economy in the long term. . .. if market goes down 30-40%, it will just be at the prices that I bought it at. Interest rate increases wont matter much since people can always switch to variable mortgages, and the overnight rate has been the same for last 5 years. I really dont think the BOC will raise the overnight rate by 1%+.


Serious question here, what will it actually take for Vancouver's real estate market to go down say 10% or more?

- Interest rates rising? they said it's gonna be going up for the last 4 years and it hasnt
- Stricter lending practices? It's still pretty easy to get mortgages, but banks and CMHC are getting better and are making it more strict today than it was 5 years ago.
- Cheaper rental rates? many homes have mortgage helpers, and cheaper rents means owners get less money for their illegal suites and such. I see a lot of supply, but rents really haven't gotten cheaper, rates have been consistently the same the last few years. I don't see it dropping, not increasing significantly in the near future.
- Parents running out of money to give to their kids for downpayments? Realistically it may dampen it, but if some rich chinese guy decides to give your parents $1.2 million for that tear down, then your parents wont run out.
- People deciding that home ownership isnt worth the risk and losing all your disposable income for? Not in vancouver where we have the house horny culture and view owning real estate as a social status. It's buy now or buy never mentality in vancouver. too many "paying rent is stupid" type people in this city.
- Restrictions on foreign money? There are articles from Sydney and Melbourne that it has significantly slowed down the rate of increase in prices after they were implemented, but prices are still slowly increasing there (not like Vancouver where we still have 10-15% increase per year)

So in reality, I just don't see a major decrease in real estate prices in the near future. In fact, I'd say prices will be flat or increase or decrease slightly the next few years.

I think there needs to be something systemic like a recession for RE prices to drop. or a major earthquake.

All I know is I wouldn't buy at today's prices. Too much risk since you invest soo much into one asset where prices are peaking and reaching new highs.

Just my two cents.

[4444]

Originally Posted by quasi

Getting a Visa isn't exactly an easy exercise.

TN-1

not that hard for an AWFUL lot of ppl

[4444]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

Serious question here, what will it actually take for Vancouver's real estate market to go down say 10% or more?

time.

time heals all wounds.

time reverts all back to the median.

won't be 1 thing, but a combination of things that result in prices falling and then stagnating - higher rates, which in turn will turn off the taps of mum and dad, slow down in china and crack down on corruption/dirty off-shored money.

1 relatively small thing will scare people, this will lead to more and more factors before we have a dead market.

but as has so well been said, rents are not that bad in vancouver, so why do we care so much about house prices (other than it being an obsession for most).

As for your 30-40% gains, let's not forget that's gross, if you look at real, net gains, risk adjusted you'd probably had done better in a diversified portfolio of financial assets.

[NKC ONE]

Problem with Vancouver is that people in Van have never really experienced what a drop feels like. If you don't study or learn about other markets in the world, you'll just think that everything keeps rising and you better buy when you still can or else its going to be more expensive next year.

If you think prices going up is crazy, try watching it fall. I've had the great opportunity to experience it twice in HK. Like 4444, said above, higher rates, slow down in corruption and dirty money from overseas all help to create fear.

You gotta have some highs and lows in a market, its basic economics.


To follow up on my case. I still haven't found a suitable place to rent with 3 dogs. I have almost given up this option and for the past 3 months I have put down 2 offers but have been rejected due to my lowballish (although realistic) prices. I'll continue to be in the hunt and hopefully have something solid by March. The dropping CAD and winter really helps a lot.

[Ulic Qel-Droma]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

Serious question here, what will it actually take for Vancouver's real estate market to go down say 10% or more?

a recession.

[Tapioca]

It's actually not as easy to sell and rent as people think it is. Sure, there are lots of rentals on Craigslist, but the majority are 1-bedroom apartments or illegal basement suites. A reasonably-sized family dwelling is actually tough to come by for a price that is cheaper than owning. Anything that is desirable (well-maintained, good location, etc.) is snatched up quickly. Of course, the majority of people on RS are outliers and winners at life, so renting is easy and affordable. But for those that already have equity/down payments, the difference between renting and buying is not that great.

[Mr.C]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

It's actually not as easy to sell and rent as people think it is. Sure, there are lots of rentals on Craigslist, but the majority are 1-bedroom apartments or illegal basement suites. A reasonably-sized family dwelling is actually tough to come by for a price that is cheaper than owning. Anything that is desirable (well-maintained, good location, etc.) is snatched up quickly. Of course, the majority of people on RS are outliers and winners at life, so renting is easy and affordable. But for those that already have equity/down payments, the difference between renting and buying is not that great.

Quick examples (just to illustrate rent vs own):

Rarely Available-Vancouver West Whole House for Rent (South Granville) @ an insane 6200/month, you'd have to live in it 40 years, given that similar houses in the area list for 3-4mil

4 bedroom home for rent - Near Highway, Skytrain, & SFU <- ugly as fuck, but 2300/month. Similar houses in the area are 1.2-1.5mil, so, 45-50 years

Family Home in Ocean Park (ID 3051) <- older house in White Rock, 2600/month. Similar homes are 900k-1.2mil. So 30-35 years.

No easy way to factor in inflation, but rents haven't changed much since 2006, which is when we immigrated here. When you own, you'll have to pay property taxes and also general upkeep. It you sell, you're paying a shitload of commission to a realtor.

Now, let's compare to a market where you'd want to invest in. Say, Dawson Creek, which is booming and has very few rentals available:

Recently Renovated 3 Bedroom Utilities Included! | house rental | Dawson Creek | Kijiji <- 3bedroom, looks decent, 2000/month. Similar properties are 250-300k. So 12-15 years to "break even" vs renting.

And Dawson is probably not even a good example, since it's in the middle of a boom.

There is no way that owning in the Lower Mainland makes any financial sense whatsoever.

Edit: I'd rather pay rent to an absentee landlord that lives in Harbin and bought the house with his ill-gotten gains than to pay through the nose and be a slave to a bank for the rest of my life.

[Y2K_o__o]

Originally Posted by Ulic Qel-Droma

a recession.

Recession would help lower RE slightly, not as much as you would see in Asia / US market.

People who bought over-million house were paid in cash where banks were NOT involved in this situation.

However, for investors & users with mortgages, RE collapse would definitely have a huge impact in the economy.

I would like to see the release data among all home owners, how many of them were paid in cash vs having mortgage. These numbers are much more convincing than the "data" from CMHC.

[Gumby]

Originally Posted by Mr.C

There is no way that owning in the Lower Mainland makes any financial sense whatsoever.

Edit: I'd rather pay rent to an absentee landlord that lives in Harbin and bought the house with his ill-gotten gains than to pay through the nose and be a slave to a bank for the rest of my life.

I'm a slave to the bank for the rest of my life.

Well at least I have a mortgage helper...

[Marshall Placid]

rent vs own...

It depends on the price of the house.

Without going into deep calculations, I surmise lower priced homes (condos, townhouses, etc.) have a higher rental cost when compared to higher priced homes.

Basically, the more expensive the house is, the more it makes sense to rent, but the tipping point ($1mill+? 1.5?) is debatable.

[EvoFire]

My gf and I were actually having a detailed conversation with numbers about renting and owning last night. A few things popped up:

Mortgage approval, I can't secure a mortgage because I am a contractor. However, the end result was we didn't really need me to be approved because whatever mortgage amount she can get with just her income is enough, and realistically more than what we want to pay monthly. Even when they are banging the drums about tightening rules, its still ridiculously easy to get a mortgage that's just way way WAY too big.

Renting, if one doesn't mind living in a basement/groundfloor suite of a house, the savings are insane, especially when utilities are included.

Unless one has around 40% downpayment, I wouldn't want to buy even with the low interest rates.