Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[meme405]

Originally Posted by 68style

Secretaries in the government are generally at the CR-04 level and make $45k a year, not $70k, and there are very few of them because secretaries are generally not required except at the highest executive levels. Some of them are AS-01's or AS-02's if they are the secretary for a minister, but regardless that tops out at $54k... not the huge exaggeration you are listing. And they all do shitty mediocre work because they work at the government? Really? Do you think gay people spread aids and black people are all criminals too? Yah sure some people fuck the dog, but you're telling me nobody does that at a private company? I know wayyyyy more people doing that in private sector who go for hours long luncheons and expense claim everything they do back to the company than is even possible in the government where you never get any Christmas parties or anything whatsoever paid for since it's all public money. You're so misinformed it's not even funny.

Why are you picking on people trying to get by on regular salaries anyway? The real damage/injustice is done in corporations and private firms where pay is all relative to ranking, not how much work you do and certainly not for an HONEST days work. If you think the government is such a great freeloader's gig, nobody is stopping you from going to jobs.gc.ca and applying for one of these so-called goldmine jobs and you can experience it yourself instead of talking out of your ass.

I'm not going to respond to everything because I don't really have the time, my post was a bit of an exaggeration, but take it easy dude, why are you going homosexual and racist on me?

The secretary thing was just me throwing out an example. I'm more so concerned about execs at corporations like BC ferries, and ICBC taking trips on our dime, or MLAs expensing everything under the sun like you seem to think every private sector employee does. Neither system is perfect, but when my tax dollars go directly towards paying for the salary of every public sector employee I have every right to ask for justification on what they are paid. Again the better way to do this is to pay people based on performance. If you work hard, there is nothing to say you won't make the same salary, or perhaps even more.

Spoiler!

And although it's none of your business: The reason I don't apply for one of these "goldmine" jobs, is because I can make a shit ton more in the private sector, since I work 80+ hours a week, and I kill at the job I do.

So why would I want to move into the public sector where I will just get lumped in with all the other people making the same wage, as the idiot who doesn't know his ass from a hole in the wall?

EDIT: Oh and final point, no, nobody at any of the three companies I currently am engaged with fucks the dog. You either pull your weight, or you're cut. PERIOD. I'm in business to make money, and my thought is I will pay my people the absolute most, but in return they must be and do their absolute best.

And yes I fire the lowest 10% every year. It's heartless but fair, and nobody complains, because you are being paid multiples more than if you were at any other company.

[quasi]

Originally Posted by GLOW

i'm thinking qualified trades workers that all left for alberta will come back which will fill the hole that was left whenmany chased dem oil cheks

it might increase the cost of construction if those guys are worth more, or make things more competitive since there's more employees for companies to chase more work which could drive prices down?

More labour won't increase the cost of construction, those guys coming back aren't worth any more then the same guys doing the jobs here they are just getting paid more up there because of the market out there. If anything it will actually lower wages all around for those guys in their field.

[NotRevSeen]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

Back on topic. I'm very curious to see how the drop in oil prices will affect Real estate in vancouver.

My guess is it will have an effect in Alberta, but I don't think it will affect Vancouver too much. I'm not seeing the demand from china slowing down. Lots of chinese clients and chinese buyers still buying homes.

Appears Real Estate in Alberta is in trouble

Home prices fall in Calgary as real estate chill deepens | Globalnews.ca

“Calgary’s high-flying housing market has caught a serious chill,” Sal Guatieri, senior economist at Bank of Montreal, said Monday afternoon.

The price drop “is likely the start of a correction,” the economist said.

Until very recently, Calgary’s housing market was the top performing in the country alongside Toronto and Vancouver. Plunging oil prices have worked quickly to cool things down, however.

Spoiler!

Still don't think low oil nor the slumping canadian dollar will have any affect on Vancouver's real estate market. Vancouver's a bit of an anamoly

[4444]

what's interesting is that Canada is in a real bind.

It's economy was sluggish before oil shit the bed, now it is in real trouble. There's even talk about interest rates being cut - i'd be amazed to see that.

trouble is, US is growing, Canada isn't. US raises rates in mid 2015, Canada must follow suit or it's currency will fall (even further), but a raise in rates will hit an anemic economy.

sadly, the currency already sucks over last 12 months. We may have a beauty coming to Canada, asset deflation and price inflation.

So whilst Vancouver may claim to be 'different', i'd rather be liquid and free when in the face of falling asset prices and raising prices in the stores.

I was recently back in vancouver and I was shocked at how expensive food is in the stores. It's still relatively cheap to eat good food out, i'll admit that. Spent time in the US, was cheap as ever down there.

always be a contrarian. Last while was the time to rid debt, not grow it. If deflation happens, ppl are fucked. It's already happening in Europe - people are fucked here (Europe is fucked, but that's a different story).

[Carl Johnson]

Originally Posted by 4444

what's interesting is that Canada is in a real bind.

It's economy was sluggish before oil shit the bed, now it is in real trouble. There's even talk about interest rates being cut - i'd be amazed to see that.

trouble is, US is growing, Canada isn't. US raises rates in mid 2015, Canada must follow suit or it's currency will fall (even further), but a raise in rates will hit an anemic economy.

sadly, the currency already sucks over last 12 months. We may have a beauty coming to Canada, asset deflation and price inflation.

So whilst Vancouver may claim to be 'different', i'd rather be liquid and free when in the face of falling asset prices and raising prices in the stores.

I was recently back in vancouver and I was shocked at how expensive food is in the stores. It's still relatively cheap to eat good food out, i'll admit that. Spent time in the US, was cheap as ever down there.

always be a contrarian. Last while was the time to rid debt, not grow it. If deflation happens, ppl are fucked. It's already happening in Europe - people are fucked here (Europe is fucked, but that's a different story).

i know this is going to sound cynical, but people only cut debt when they are forced upon. when things are good, or appears good on the surface, people will just pile on more debt to indulge. take a look at America before 2008.

the situation about van real estate is obviously very tenuous. from an economic point of view, the fundamentals like income or jobs does not support the prices, yet we know there are short-term factors like offshore money that is distorting the market. locals here obviously piled on so much debt which contributed greatly to the RE frenzy as well.

canada in general is in a precarious situation given the dependence on energies and commodities export. before the oil crash, people still had high hopes for 100k+ jobs without even a high school diploma. now that oil is gone, so is copper, coal and all the rest, mining and oil & gas which has been the essential the bedrock of western Canadian economy is severely curtailed. people who think the oil rout in Alberta will be isolated to Alberta is in a epic illusion. suncor's 1000 job cuts is a wake up call the good times are over. if you got no education or any relevant experience in the knowledge-based economy you are f***ed.

"the market will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent," keynes famously said. i don't know what the catalyst will be for vancouver re will be, it could be the oil crash, it could be a U.S. rate hike, or it could be a chinese economy implosion, who knows? however, i wouldn't want to be anywhere near Vancouver when the ship crashes; it is going to be ugly.

[noclue]

IMO I don't think Vancouver will suffer too much in regards to single family homes. Condo's on the other hand...

4444 would love to hear your thoughts about the swiss franc explosion and the effect on the Eurozone. 1 Euro is 1.16USD wow.

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by noclue

IMO I don't think Vancouver will suffer too much in regards to single family homes. Condo's on the other hand...

4444 would love to hear your thoughts about the swiss franc explosion and the effect on the Eurozone. 1 Euro is 1.16USD wow.

Apartments is mostly about locations. If you purchase an apartment in a good or ideal location price won't fall much. However apartment that have bad location price will drop by a lot.

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

Apartments is mostly about locations. If you purchase an apartment in a good or ideal location price won't fall much. However apartment that have bad location price will drop by a lot.

Only time will tell, but based on current construction, it would beg to differ.

But then again, there isn't any new construction in Coal Harbour.

[StylinRed]

hitting the news

http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

demographia international housing affordability survey

the part causing the buzz (pg 11-12 of the survey)

10 Least Affordable Major Metropolitan Markets:

The 10 least affordable major metropolitan markets are shown in Table 6. Hong Kong had least affordable housing, with a Median Multiple of 17.0. This was the fifth year in a row that Hong Kong was the least affordable.

Vancouver, where housing affordability has been steadily worsening was the second least unaffordable, with a Median Multiple of 10.6. This is Vancouver's worst housing affordability in the years of the Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey.

Sydney was the third least affordable, with a Median Multiple of 9.8. Sydney also registered its worst housing affordability in the years of the Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey.

San Francisco and San Jose tied as the fourth least affordable major metropolitan markets, at a Median Multiple of 9.2. Both metropolitan areas are approaching their historic Median Multiple highs, which were reached during the US housing bubble.

Melbourne had the sixth least affordable housing among major metropolitan area markets, with a Median Multiple of 8.7, followed by London (Greater London Authority), at 8.5. San Diego, with a Median Multiple of 8.3 was 8th least affordable, Auckland was 9th least affordable (8.2), and Los Angeles was 10th least affordable.

As in the past, each of seriously unaffordable and severely unaffordable markets was characterized by urban containment regulation. At the same time, the affordable markets are generally characterized by liberal land use regulation, which is associated with greater housing affordability (Table 1, above and Figure 3).

[Traum]

Pretty sure Hong Kong and Vancouver were already in the same #1 and #2 worst positions since at least last year. It was probably from the result of a similar survey / study by another institution.

[Hehe]

Canada is being hit with what I consider a perfect storm.

From a USD perspective, CDN assets shrank significantly; be it real estate or natural resources. I.E: Oil dropped over 50% from its peak, property prices not increasing on par with the devaluation of CDN. 1M USD used to get you a 1M CAD house. Now that same 1M house costs 1.05M CAD, while is worth around 870k USD. Effectively, again in USD term, the house lost 13% of the value. This would fuel foreign investors (specially Chinese as yuan is pegged to USD) to flee as the longer they wait, the less value they get.

So, what do we have here? Many Canadians have used the equity in their property as ATM to afford a lifestyle. Now suddenly what they can afford became so much less than just a year ago. (since we import the majority of our goods). Economy is tanking when price of the same basket is soaring.

If BoC decides to keep its rate steady or even drop, I foresee a real problem for Canada if nothing happens to USD (which is likely the case in near term). Canada would basically go through a stagflation. Assets no longer grow in value while cash in CAD also loses value. And since the interest rate is low, it makes more sense to channel the CAD outside of Canada as it's the only way that investment would make sense. This would lead to even less job growth in Canada as a whole.

If I were BoC, I will just increase the rate to prevent money flowing outward. Sure it would probably kill the real estate market, but it makes more sense than killing the labour market which many Canadians depend on.

[4444]

Originally Posted by noclue

IMO I don't think Vancouver will suffer too much in regards to single family homes. Condo's on the other hand...

4444 would love to hear your thoughts about the swiss franc explosion and the effect on the Eurozone. 1 Euro is 1.16USD wow.

being pegged at artificially low valuation was a risk and is only a short term measure.

Swiss know that EU will print, they couldn't follow suit to further devalue the Franc, they had to unpeg from the Euro and now we see the true value of the Franc.

It may be on Thursday that clues or even full announcement of Euro money printing happens - Euro will weaken further, though know that it is already priced into the Euro - but more will come.

It's not just about Euro weakness, it's also a lot to do with US strength, US CAD about 1.20, Euro US in 1.16 range - i don't see a reversal anytime soon.

If I may be so forward to give some advice (and advice/opinions are like arseholes, we all have them) - stay diversified, in both investments and currencies. A long time ago I decided that I wanted to own Euros, Yen, Sterling, US and Cdn - so I invest accordingly. This produces a natural hedge.

To speak directly to the Cdn consumer market, I import and sell a good into Canada, my cost is in USD, I price based on the Cdn equivalent. I recently raised prices 20%. This cost will eventually work its way to the prices paid at the till, goods will get more expensive in Canada.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Hehe

If I were BoC, I will just increase the rate to prevent money flowing outward. Sure it would probably kill the real estate market, but it makes more sense than killing the labour market which many Canadians depend on.

but a rise in rates will hurt the economy and will cause job losses.

this is the crux of Canada's problems - overinflated asset prices (dangerous to lower rates), yet a lagging economy (usually the answer is to lower rates to spur an economy, a la US economy after 2008), but the biggest factor is the impending US rate hike which usually results in a Cdn rate move to ensure the currencies don't suddenly jump.

A rate decrease would be good as it would make Cdn manufacturing more attractive to the US (cheaper CAD) and would likely result in a better employment picture, though it would be felt through increased prices at the till and potentially the continuation of stupid actions re: overvalued assets.

I would not want to raise rates right now if I were the BoC - would take a brave man or woman... either way Canada turns, there's trouble.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by 4444

but a rise in rates will hurt the economy and will cause job losses.

It is going to hurt, that's for sure. But it also allows Canada to get back faster.

Look at what happen in US in 2008. US Gov't basically decided to let the house market collapse while maintaining only the fundamentals (financial system) relatively intact. Now they are thriving (relatively to other economies)

CAD has been on par or near par with USD for far too long. People, prices and wages were adjusted in such way. Now, if BoC drops the rate or maintain it when the Fed goes up, the only way it would make sense for Canadian is if their wages are increased by the same margin. Else, the housing market will collapse anyway because CAD will drop far too much, foreign investors will leave while new investors won't come until market stabilizes.

Plus when the prices of goods go up. I.E: USD-CAD moves from 1.20-->1.40 in a short span and stays there. All import goods (which includes food and many other grocery items) prices suddenly go up by 16%, people would have to abandone paying for their expensive houses and get food onto the table first if their wage didn't increase by the same amount. By then the housing market will have a bloodbath, so is the investment sector as it makes very little sense to invest in Canada unless you are exporting. But that is only a fraction of our economy.

I'm not saying CAD shouldn't drop, but it should do so in a controlable manner.

[Spoon]

Originally Posted by Hehe

Now, if BoC drops the rate or maintain it when the Fed goes up, the only way it would make sense for Canadian is if their wages are increased by the same margin. Else, the housing market will collapse anyway because CAD will drop far too much, foreign investors will leave while new investors won't come until market stabilizes.

Not sure if this argument holds. Dropping rates (decreasing money supply) means the value of each dollar is worth more. Why would wages need to go up? (sorry this is incorrect money supply actually goes up) With a lower currency, this usually drives foreign investments. I think you're forgetting that this also means the cost to invest in infrastruture and labour are also cheaper.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Spoon

Not sure if this argument holds. Dropping rates (decreasing money supply) means the value of each dollar is worth more. Why would wages need to go up? With a lower currency, this usually drives foreign investments. I think you're forgetting that this also means the cost to invest in infrastruture and labour are also cheaper.

Wot?!

I think we should all stop the economics talk as it is clear many don't understand the fundamentals.

A decrease in Cdn rates would cause the Cdn dollar to become less valuable versus the USD (assuming no change in US rates) as there would be less demand for Cdn as the safe haven (gov) returns would be lower.

Decreasing rates also indicates one's economy is not performing well, thus the argument that foreign money would rush in is somewhat confusing. Foreign money may come in, but it may also look at a weakening currency and be concerned that their Cdn investment, in their home currency equivalent, will go down as the Cdn $ decreases. Furthermore, one tends not to invest significantly in a country that has just indicated a weak economy.

Lower rates are used to spur domestic investment, as it makes the cost of borrowing lower, vis-a-vis the potential upside of an investment project even greater.

Economics is never just a one answer thing, though - a rate decrease may end up having totally abnormal results due to certain other relationships in the market.

[sonick]

BoC has cut overnight rates by 0.25%

[MR_BIGGS]

Wow, BoC lowers rate.

[flagella]

Yup. Surprise move.

[Hehe]

I am disappointed at Poloz. He didn't have the guts to pull the trigger and still hope that housing market could have a soft landing.

CAD went from 1.2 of yesterday to now about 1.23. Which I think we should see 1.3 fairly soon. The effect on consumer prices should show up some time this summer.

Best luck to all foreign investors who bought into Vancouver RE. Your investment is not looking good in USD term.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by Spoon

Not sure if this argument holds. (sorry this is incorrect money supply actually goes up) With a lower currency, this usually drives foreign investments. I think you're forgetting that this also means the cost to invest in infrastruture and labour are also cheaper.

The main problem is future outlook and the long term value of CAD.

Canada is very small as far as manufacturing goes. Thus, we import most of the equipments and raw materials.

Unless you are in the export business, you are still selling in CAD. With CAD losing value in the near terms, it means that unless your profitability is higher than the currency fluctuation, you are actually better off borrowing CAD and invest elsewhere.

Think Japan in the early 90s. It's the exact same problem; sky high property prices, little real economic activities domestically and 0% interest. And investors all went into Japan to borrow fund to invest elsewhere.

What did that give Japan? The infamous lost decade.

[meme405]

Originally Posted by Hehe

Best luck to all foreign investors who bought into Vancouver RE. Your investment is not looking good in USD term.

How about those of us who went in reverse?

I bought a place as an income property in Vegas (Henderson actually) about a year ago.

Property value is up, rent pays the mortgage and then some, and the currency is up.

My investment is looking solid...

[sonick]

Originally Posted by Hehe

I am disappointed at Poloz. He didn't have the guts to pull the trigger and still hope that housing market could have a soft landing.

CAD went from 1.2 of yesterday to now about 1.23. Which I think we should see 1.3 fairly soon. The effect on consumer prices should show up some time this summer.

Best luck to all foreign investors who bought into Vancouver RE. Your investment is not looking good in USD term.

The oil crash really fucked things up for them in terms of raising rates. They really are in a rock and a hard place here.

Heard they are expecting not until the end of 2015 for it to go back up.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by sonick

The oil crash really fucked things up for them in terms of raising rates. They really are in a rock and a hard place here.

Heard they are expecting not until the end of 2015 for it to go back up.

All I can think of is that 2015 will be a year to remember as far as Canadian economy goes. Especially for those in their 20s~30s.

It might be the first time in their adulthood that they see Canadian economy tanking big time.

Should the loonie drop further too fast, the housing market will see some fire sales for those investors who can't wait it out. Sure many of them bought in cash and all, but it means that their 1M CAD property, which cost them about 1M USD when they bought it originally can worth as much as 30% less (in USD terms) within this year. And how long would it take to recover is anybody's guess.

[noclue]

my god... CAD is turning into toilet paper.

What if Poloz lowered the overnight rate to make the conservatives look good for the elections. #conspiracy.