Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[jasonturbo]

Canadian house prices 35% overvalued, Economist magazine says - Business - CBC News

In a survey of housing costs around the world, the Economist magazine says Canada's housing prices are 35 per cent overvalued when compared to Canadian incomes.

Against the level of Canadian rents, housing prices come in 89 per cent overvalued, according to the Economist housing index.

In calling Canadian house prices out of kilter, the Economist joins voices such as Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, ratings agency Fitch and even the International Monetary Fund, in pointing out that the rise of house values is out of sync with Canadian incomes.

Of the 26 markets surveyed, the magazine found seven where housing prices are more than 25 per cent overvalued.

Belgium leads the pack, with house prices 50 per cent overvalued relative to income. But also highlighted are Australia, France, Britain and Sweden.

Too cheap to borrow
The Economist puts the blame on "ultra-loose" monetary policy. Mortgage rates are at historic lows around the world.

Cheap borrowing has encouraged consumers to jump in and buy, driving demand and pushing prices higher.

The result is a bubble, as housing prices rapidly outpace both consumer incomes and rental costs.

In Canada, housing prices have risen steeply in the past decade, with the hot markets of Toronto and Vancouver seeing increases of 7.8 per cent and 7.1 per cent respectively in the past year.

The IMF warned last week that the policies central banks had adopted to curb consumer borrowing — including limited mortgage terms and stringent lending criteria for banks — might not be enough to prevent bubbles.

The IMF pointed to the persistence of low growth in the face of low interest rates and said advanced economies might be dealing with the problem for some time.

Will continue to wait patiently for housing bubble to melt

[Mr.HappySilp]

^^ ppl have been saying that since 2008 and still no bubble.

[fliptuner]

2008? try 1998

Originally Posted by Mr.C

As time goes by, I am more and more convinced there's no such thing as a "good buy" in Vancouver anymore. I'd seriously rather rent and invest elsewhere.

Good buy in what sense? Cheap for the market? Profitable after 2-5 years?

[Z3guy]

^ try 1988

[radioman]

^try 1908


wait wut

[GLOW]

Originally Posted by Mr.C

As time goes by, I am more and more convinced there's no such thing as a "good buy" in Vancouver anymore.

sure there is... it's "good bye" in Vancouver

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

^^ ppl have been saying that since 2008 and still no bubble.

The fact that real estate hasn't imploded does not mean there is no bubble, it just means the bubble has not yet popped. (If indeed there is a bubble)

[Expresso]

^^^Just live in your Porsche

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by Expresso

^^^Just live in your Porsche

You can have sex in your Porsche, but your can't track your house.

[NKC ONE]

Originally Posted by SumAznGuy

You can have sex in your Porsche, but your can't track your house.

Yes you can.

[blkgsr]

haha that is awesome

[fliptuner]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

The fact that real estate hasn't imploded does not mean there is no bubble, it just means the bubble has not yet popped. (If indeed there is a bubble)

dude

[heleu]

I don't know if this was posted before, but:

Canada?s mortgage wars hit new low as fixed rate dips to 1.49% | Financial Post

It's only for 18 months, but if my mortgage was up for renewal, I'd do it.

[Gululu]

investors not coming anymore

[originalhypa]

Originally Posted by Gululu

investors not coming anymore

bullshit.
There are more chinese millionaires than there are cockroaches living in multicartual's east end apartment. All they care about is that Canada has a stable banking system, and is still one of the most desirable places in the world to park your money. I know of a few realtor friends who are selling our country piece by piece to chinese investment groups. Average groups consist of 20-30 individuals who pool together their funds to buy Canadian real estate. They're not individuals buying a house in the west end. They're buying existing businesses, major developments, and whole buildings knowing that the investments will basically pay for themselves while increasing in value.

[multicartual]

Originally Posted by originalhypa

bullshit.
There are more chinese millionaires than there are cockroaches living in multicartual's east end apartment.

Cough cough


Gastown please, and those are bed bugs, not cockroaches!

[GLOW]

Originally Posted by multicartual

and those are bed bugs, not cockroaches!

[Special K]

What do you guys think about the Cambie Corridor developments?

I'm looking at Monarch (pre-sale). Concrete building, air conditioning, high ceiling. This is diagonally across from QE Park.

2-3 bedroom units for about $0.9-$1.1 million.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business...887/story.html

[Z3guy]

^ allot of money for no dirt. Great lifestyle vs property appreciation

[blkgsr]

Originally Posted by blkgsr

been crunching some numbers: i've got approx $280,000 left

this is all accelerated weekly

5 year fixed at 2.44% (25 year) is $311.49, (20 year) is $368.48
5 year variable at 2% (prime - 0.85%) (25 year) is $296.70, (20 year) is $354.12

on the 25 year amortization there's approx a $3600 difference over the 5 years (approx $15 per week x 4 weeks/month x 12 months) i know that's not exactly but close enough

WHEN rates go up, in a couple years that margin closes pretty quickly....

just heard from my broker the 5 year rate is actually 2.49%, no bid deal

i rechecked all the numbers, on a 30 year amortization the term interest cost for the variable is $26,808 and the fixed is $33,303

that's a $6500 difference....is it worth it to take the risk of higher rates by going variable?????

[originalhypa]

Originally Posted by blkgsr

that's a $6500 difference....is it worth it to take the risk of higher rates by going variable?????

The question is, do you think that the rates are going to change dramatically in the next 5 years?

The great thing about investing in Canada is that our banking system is globally strong. So the chances of a drastic rate increase is relatively low. It's the sort of thing you're going to have to decide whether or not you're willing to gamble.

At what point in the rate change does it start going the other way?
1/4%
1/2%
a full percent?

To be honest, there are a lot of good things happening in our economy right now. But the overall numbers are down making me think that the feds are going to keep the rates low to keep things going until resources go up again.

[blkgsr]

i've decided just to go fixed....the rates may very well stay but who knows. I'm happy with the rate i ended up with 2.49%

[heleu]

I think you made the right decision. It's really not worth losing sleep over if you are worried about it all.

[Z3guy]

good for you Blkgsr, I thought I was laughing when I got a 2.99% interest rate 1 year ago! haha! when I played around with the RBC calcuator I noticed when I shortened my term from 20yrs to 10yrs, obviously my pymts when up, but not by double and I noticed how much more of my bi-weekly pymts went to principal reduction vs interest.

I look at low interest rates as an opporutnity to pay off my mortage quickly more so than acutally borrowing more for a house I don't need. I need more cars!! haha!

[blkgsr]

ya i went accelerated weekly on the payments....crazy how low it is now

i could absolutely kill (not payout by any means) this mortgage over the next 5 years but i'll be using it to fund travels instead....to me still worth it