Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Traum]

I see several possibility (for people to only sink 20-30% of their after tax income on housing:

1) RS folks are all ballers that rank in massive amount of dough
2) they bought before prices skyrocketed
3) they are not buying $1M properties (ie. single detached homes). Instead, they are buying duplexes, town homes, apartments, etc. Out in Surrey, it is still entirely possible to spend only $150k-ish on a 500-ish square fee 1 bedroom suite.

[Hondaracer]

bigger down payments.

[punkwax]

Originally Posted by Special K

Wait hold on. It's nice to see that people are only spending 20-30% of their after tax family income on housing.

How is it possible in today's market??

Say the property is $1 million, 20% down, so that's $800k in mortgage.

Monthly payments at 30 years amortization is around $4000 a month (for the sake of round numbers).

At 20-30% after tax family income, we will be looking at having to earn around $350,000 gross to afford a shitty Vancouver detached or a newer multi-family.

This seems hopeless....

Originally Posted by Traum

I see several possibility (for people to only sink 20-30% of their after tax income on housing:

1) RS folks are all ballers that rank in massive amount of dough
2) they bought before prices skyrocketed
3) they are not buying $1M properties (ie. single detached homes). Instead, they are buying duplexes, town homes, apartments, etc. Out in Surrey, it is still entirely possible to spend only $150k-ish on a 500-ish square fee 1 bedroom suite.

Point 2 describes me. Like quasi, I got in early. In 2001 I bought my first home.

Regarding point 3, my property is worth more than 1M. I would never had been able to afford this without point 2.

[fliptuner]

Originally Posted by Special K

How is it possible in today's market??

Say the property is $1 million, 20% down, so that's $800k in mortgage.

Monthly payments at 30 years amortization is around $4000 a month (for the sake of round numbers).

At 20-30% after tax family income, we will be looking at having to earn around $350,000 gross to afford a shitty Vancouver detached or a newer multi-family.

This seems hopeless....

$1m, 20% down, $800k mortgage.

30yr, 2.75% is closer to $3250/mo.

If you have a suite @ $1K - $1.2K/mo, it becomes a lot more feasible.

Then of course, the price goes down as you move farther East.

[Ludepower]

Lets not sugarcoat it.
Unless you got in early...there's no way you can save enough without your parents help for the down payment.

50-60 percent fixed living cost is becoming the Vancouver norm.
Doesn't include...transportation, grocery, clothes, retirement or leisure.

It's a scary world out there.

[noclue]

If you are paying 50-60% of your aftertax income on a mortgage right now you are fucked if the interest rate goes up. Double the fun if your property value goes down.

I am quite curious what vancouver will look like with a 5%+ mortgage.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by ICE BOY

If you have a suite @ $1K - $1.2K/mo, it becomes a lot more feamole.

And the avg van/bby/rmd house has 2-4 suites so its like a free house

With current rates our mortgage alone is about 20% of our combined net income, though we aim to pay about 35% of our monthly net income and still maintain a comfortable lifestyle. We bought our first condo in 2008 and were very aggressive with our payments, living frugally but totally comfortable for our lifestyle. We were able to buy our current house with ~50% down. With a kid in tow now, it's tough to live as frugally as before, but it's also nice knowing we can stay here for the next 20+ years if we want

[Special K]

I might have to rethink this.

Right now I am looking at spending 40% for just mortgage alone. If apartment in Vancouver, then add another 5% for strata on top of that 40%. If it's a house in Coquitlam, then there would be rental income, offset by higher property tax.

It's just scary to commit 40-50% of my after tax income on housing. Too many variables that will get us in trouble.

Job loss
Property value tanking (and not be able to refinance)
Maternity leave which is a substantial drop in cash flow
Kids - they cost a lot of money

This sucks.

[UFO]

We always wish we were about 5 years older, we would've been in such a better positive financially than we are now all other things being equal. But at the same time we are so thankful we are not 5 years younger, can't imagine just getting into the market now.

The increase in property tax and utilities for our house worked out to be roughly about what we would have been paying for strata fees and cheaper property tax/utilities at the condo. Except any maintenance needed on the house is now an extra cost. But we did get hit with about 40k in special assessment moneys in 2011, 40k would do wonders for our house!

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Special K

I might have to rethink this.

Right now I am looking at spending 40% for just mortgage alone. If apartment in Vancouver, then add another 5% for strata on top of that 40%. If it's a house in Coquitlam, then there would be rental income, offset by higher property tax.

It's just scary to commit 40-50% of my after tax income on housing. Too many variables that will get us in trouble.

Job loss
Property value tanking (and not be able to refinance)
Maternity leave which is a substantial drop in cash flow
Kids - they cost a lot of money

This sucks.

If you have no equity, it's impossible to get in the market on average salaries. Just rent, or wait until your parents or in-laws kick the bucket.

Or move to Regina or Winnipeg.

[sonick]

+1 on equity. It's not like first time buyers are dropping $200k off the bat on a $1m home (without parental assistance at least).

People get into a condo and build equity to then be able to move up on the next home.

Or if you have the discipline, continue renting and invest your down payment and savings from rent.

[quasi]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

If you have no equity, it's impossible to get in the market on average salaries. Just rent, or wait until your parents or in-laws kick the bucket.

Or move to Regina or Winnipeg.

I don't know about Winnipeg but a decent house in Regina isn't that much cheaper then the suburbs here probably 400-500 range, might as well stay. Of course you can buy one of those beauty's in Indian Flats for in the low to mid 100's but don't dare go outside at night if you live in that area.

My parents built a house 20 minutes outside of Regina last year they are in it for over a million, cheaper land but construction costs are way more then here.

Edit: I should have added that if you live in Regina you will most likely make more money then you would here doing the same job. I had a job offer earlier in the year that would have given me almost a 50% raise to start if I moved back. Potash and to some extent oil (probably tapered off now) are drawing a lot of the skilled trades leaving the demand high in other areas.

[Hondaracer]

Exactly.

People are always bitching about the prices here but really anywhere half decent is pricey.

Especially world class cities, of course there is inflation here by foriegn investment but look at places like Paris, London, etc you get nothing for the money you get at least SOME value here for 250-300k. In those places you're getting like 400-500sq feet

Also even in resort places like Nice, and coastal Europe, I looked in a few windows of real estate offices and you're getting a condo without a view for 150-200,000 euros

Shit is pricey everywhere, get used to it.

[VR6GTI]

Originally Posted by ICE BOY

$1m, 20% down, $800k mortgage.

30yr, 2.75% is closer to $3250/mo.

If you have a suite @ $1K - $1.2K/mo, it becomes a lot more feasible.

Then of course, the price goes down as you move farther East.

Do people actually get 800k mortgages? Fuck the interest on that must be insane

[blkgsr]

i was curious so i looked it up

$800K, 5 year fixed @ 2.65%, monthly payment = $3217

Interest for the term (5 year).........$99,492


wow...i almost puked

[GLOW]

if you have a mortgage helper that would help cover the interest. you still need decent home income to pay that back though.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by quasi

I don't know about Winnipeg but a decent house in Regina isn't that much cheaper then the suburbs here probably 400-500 range, might as well stay. Of course you can buy one of those beauty's in Indian Flats for in the low to mid 100's but don't dare go outside at night if you live in that area.

400-500 vs 750-800K in the suburbs is still a big difference, particularly when you factor in higher salaries.

My comment was kind of in jest. I think it would be hard for someone who grew up in a place like Vancouver to move to Regina or Winnipeg. Cold winters, mosquitoes in the summer, lack of diverse food, smaller airports and fewer connections, and generally, a less cosmopolitan world outlook. But, if you value a piece of land, shorter commutes, recreation such as fishing and hunting, a couple of trucks and a garage (no Bimmers or Euro cars out there and no part suppliers or US mailing outpost like Point Roberts) and a generally relaxed lifestyle, it could be viable. In fact, it could be attractive if you're growing tired of the cultural dualism that is Metro Vancouver (mainland Chinese and South Asian).

[Mr.C]

Originally Posted by ICE BOY

$1m, 20% down, $800k mortgage.

30yr, 2.75% is closer to $3250/mo.

If you have a suite @ $1K - $1.2K/mo, it becomes a lot more feasible.

Then of course, the price goes down as you move farther East.

If I had 200k right now, I'd be sticking it in a conservative investment fund at, oh, 10% per year. Then add another 10k a year, and budget 29000/year for rent. That should get me in a million dollar house these days.

At the end of 30 years, I'd probably have around 5 million cash. I don't know if the house would be 5 million in 30 years...

And, yes, my rent wouldn't be 29000/year forever; however, I'd also not be paying property taxes and maintenance.

[GGnoRE]

^ expecting 10% annual return on your investment every year is a big assumption.

[blkgsr]

ya i was going to say....tell me your secret

[Tapioca]

Most people don't have the risk tolerance, nor the savvy to net 10% every year in the stock market. Sure, people on the Internet brag about their double-digit returns all of the time, but such lucky people are anomalies, rather than the norm.

Life happens, so it's hard to project your net worth in 20 years, regardless if you're a committed renter or committed home owner. If you end up fortunate (or unfortunate enough) to meet someone and want to continue life with that person, you can basically throw any assumption about what your life will look like 20 years from now out of the window.

[radioman]

Originally Posted by GGnoRE

^ expecting 10% annual return on your investment every year is a big assumption.

Why stop at 10%? Go for 20!!!!

[dat_steve]

in all fairness, you could have mindlessly dumped into some of the indexes in the last two years or so and received close to if not more than 10-15%.

edit: but to expect consistent results is optimistic given the economic climate

[pengu]

Unless your parents were well off good luck buying into Vancouver real estate as a first time buyer. I mean $250k for a condo is ridiculous. Its simply not worth it, condo's dont build equity that fast and with the current economic condition it's a bigger risk. Should not have to pay such a large portion of my income to live in a condo, so I choose to rent even though I have enough money for a down payment.

I know this is apples and oranges, but for the price of a 1 bedroom condo in the suburbs of Vancouver (Coquitlam etc) you can buy a full size 3 bedroom house in Nanaimo, BC.
There is simply no value to living in the lower mainland.

They're teaching kids that they shouldn't be paying more than 30% of their budget on living space. Good luck with that.

The only people that defend our real estate market are baby boomers, who bought in when it was affordable and the economy was growing. Then they beat up the current generation for "not working hard enough". Oh and Asian investors.

/endrant

[Ulic Qel-Droma]

getting 10% every year... if you consider that "conservative", you must be new to the markets.

you're only getting 10% because everything is going up up up. when things are going up, it's easy to make money. u can just buy anything and you'll make money.

wait till markets normalize, or even start to go down. look at long term charts, 30-40 years.

how much money you make when things are in the shit hole is the true test of investing skills.