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Vancouver Off-Topic / Current EventsThe off-topic forum for Vancouver, funnies, non-auto centered discussions, WORK SAFE. While the rules are more relaxed here, there are still rules. Please refer to sticky thread in this forum.
For what it's worth BC Assessment has come out with the 2013 numbers and you can go online to see what your property and your neighbor's is assessed
It's also worth noting that BC Assessment is a laggy and highly smoothed way of looking at market values. Since property tax revenue is directly affected by assessed value, there is an inherent bias to raise property values quickly and lower them slowly.
Mark
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__________________ I'm old now - boring street cars and sweet race cars.
For what it's worth BC Assessment has come out with the 2013 numbers and you can go online to see what your property and your neighbor's is assessed
my assessment just came in and i'm like wtf seemed like my property value went up again. with all the talk of RE prices dropping i was expecting a dip and to pay less taxes not more
VANCOUVER — Vancouver's house prices could fall a further five per cent before 2013 is over, according to a BMO economist.
Sal Guatieri, BMO Capital Markets senior economist, made the prediction during a Tuesday conference call, while Royal LePage called for average prices to fall three per cent as fewer luxury homes sell.
Guatieri said tougher mortgage rules and the suspension of the federal immigrant investor program in July could be factors in Vancouver's real estate slowdown.
"Nowhere is the housing market weaker than in British Columbia, where resales are down 17 per cent in the year to November and are well below the past decade norm," Guatieri said. "Vancouver's resales have plunged 31 per cent in the year to December and benchmark prices are down just over three per cent since the spring."
He said the mortgage changes, limiting the life of a mortgage to 25 years from 30 and prohibiting mortgage insurance on homes more expensive than $1 million, will hit pricier markets the hardest. Housing prices are about 10 times average family incomes, Guatieri said, putting "Vancouver in the upper echelon of overvalued housing markets, not just in Canada, but across the world."
He said many would-be house buyers are opting to buy condos, rent instead of buy, or move to other cities because of the high prices.
Vancouver condos remain affordable, he said, but detached homes are out of reach for first-time buyers. He expects further declines in home prices during 2013.
"That would not be surprising nor exceptional as the city has faced four double-digit price corrections in the past three decades," Guatieri said.
The federal immigrant investor program allows people to immigrate to Canada if they can show they have business experience, a net worth of at least $1.6 million obtained legally and can invest $800,000 in an interest-free loan to Canada for five years to create jobs. There was a backlog of more than 23,000 applications to the program last April. In July, applications were suspended so the federal government could process existing applications and review the program.
"There is some speculation that wealthier foreign buyers are waiting to see if the government will restart that program before they purchase a house in Vancouver," Guatieri said. "What has supported Vancouver's housing market, at least in the past five years, is not income, it's wealth. A lot of that is foreign wealth, although we can't quantify that."
He said many of these buyers don't need a mortgage because they have the cash and can buy a house outright.
"But that supply of people is diminishing, especially as prices have continued to go up," he said. "Unless people continue to flood into Vancouver — foreign residents with a lot of money — that market looks very ripe for a meaningful correction — not a material one — of at least five per cent or so for the next year."
The Royal LePage Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast found that the average price of a detached bungalow in Vancouver decreased slightly year-over-year by 1.6 per cent to $1,001,250, while two-storey homes also dropped just over one per cent to $1,102,500. Condominiums dropped 3.6 per cent year-over-year to $481,250.
"The real estate market has been slow in Vancouver over the past eight months," said Bill Binnie, broker and owner of Royal LePage North Shore. "Sellers have not been bringing their listings to the market because prices have not been competitive while buyers have been sitting on the fence hoping prices will go down. The reality is that sellers are not interested in making any significant reductions in price and with our good local economy and healthy employment, there has not been pressure for them to sell."
Royal LePage forecasts that fewer high-end sales will cause average prices in Vancouver to drop three per cent by the end of 2013. Nationally, Royal LePage forecasts a one-per-cent gain in the average home price by the end of the year.
Guatieri said the decade-long housing boom across Canada is likely over and that returns on investment in real estate are likely to fall. However, he cited Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland as strong markets that will buck the trend, while prices will hold steady in the rest of the country.
I really hope housing prices fall significantly (more than 10%) this year.
Seems like a lot of doom and gloom in this thread sprinkled with some good points.
I think some people are forgetting why Vancouver + GVRD is so good. Weather (best in Canada), leisure activities (any outdoor sport imaginable), standard of living, and general overall vibe. Canada in general is attractive to foreigners with Vancouver being the best city in it. Secondly the GVRD is only so big and has so much land. If you drive within Vancouver city limits you know that their are no areas of vacant land to be developed so demand is high and supply is low. Yes I understand that taxes are high and the night life sucks and the traffic is terrible but these are minor. Im sure if you go back through 15 pages all of this has been covered.
Next, the population last year on earth hit 7 billion. 7,000,000,000,000 fuckin people and its still RISING. With Canada being a hot spot for immigration and Vancouver being the most diverse culturally they are going to keep coming to town. Coupled with massive natural resources projects within B.C I see no possible way a "bubble collapse" will happen. Speculators are always going to give a bunch of bull shit and personally I feel they stand to benefit.
With all that being said prices are higher than they should be (especially Vancouver), and a small correction and cool off would be a better prediction.
Vancouver has no real economy
Most of those 7billion people are way too poor to live in and afford Vancouver
Vancouver prices as a multiple of earnings (see my first point) are way out of whack
Trust me, Vancouver ain't that great, 6 months of rain and constant cloud cannot be made up for by 4 months of pretty nice weather
Fundamentals rule, one can always make an argument as to why real estate should go up, short term prices are based on emotion - long term are based on fundamentals
Vancouver has no real economy
Most of those 7billion people are way too poor to live in and afford Vancouver
Vancouver prices as a multiple of earnings (see my first point) are way out of whack
Trust me, Vancouver ain't that great, 6 months of rain and constant cloud cannot be made up for by 4 months of pretty nice weather
Fundamentals rule, one can always make an argument as to why real estate should go up, short term prices are based on emotion - long term are based on fundamentals
Completely to take this on a tangent, but its an idea I've had brewing for awhile.
So we have the ALR, the Agricultural Land Reserve to keep fields and such from being at the mercy of a developers whim. In reality, another step before a developer can plant condos instead of tomatoes, but thats not the point here.
I think there is a need for the ILR, or Industrial Land Reserve. Vancouver proper is becoming a bedroom community of itself. I think that is going to have a long term impact far more brutal than anything else that has happened.
As a for instance.
For those that know, in New West, off Columbia by the Petro Can, there is a shitty part of Kingsway, with a bunch of old buildings and such. The city, in infinite wisdom, coming off their famed office tower project wants to work on this area, and turn that area of Kingsway into a walkable neighborhood.
I immediately say bullshit. That area may be many things, but walkable, it ain't ever gonna be. A, we don't need another shopping district in New West...we have 5 or 6. And, without picking up a hammer, we already have a beautiful thing...industrial land. I see a place that actually has functional buildings with operational buildings, and instead of tearing the shit down, I want more. Picture an area that has places where you can work, own a shop, own a business, kind of Granville Island-esque and actually have people live AND work in New West.
Now, the reason I bring this up, is development seems to mean "condos" we want condos. More and more. New West is right along side every other city building a bedroom community next to a bedroom community. You end up with competing factions against each other. We want a car free future(royal we. I certainly don't), we don't want to live next to an industrial area, so we force them out further and further away, so we need to use cars to get there.
Vancouver is not the end all and be all of life. There are a lot of people that like it, but not love it.
And I think its reasonable for each and every person to to ask, am I willing to pay the premium to live in Van?
If it is, then go ahead.
Just know there are others that sit there and question it.
The prices are sky high. EVERYONE should be able to see it. WHY? Because a few years ago, everyone was going around on house tours with a building inspector in tow to do on-site inspections during a first viewing, so they could over-bid right there for the house.
That was profiled in the news. That's when you know you have a problem. That lady, that I still remember 6 years later, is going to be the same one on the news complaining that her house dropped 10% of fake value.
Why else do we have a problem? Because we went to a 40 year fucking mortgage people. It was 25 forever..then suddenly 40 years.
Im wondering why we have member defending and supporting these ridiculous prices.
Explain to me how an average vancouver citizen can afford a home.
Most of revscene members are living in their parents homes hoping prices correct themselves to realistic values.
Foreigners dont do much for Vancouver anymore. Canada became more strict in its immigration policies in line with the USA so many will choose to invest there instead.
Would you pay $2.5 million for a fixer upper in dunbar or a fantastic Mediterranean styled home in Pacific Palisades enjoying Californian weather?
Foreigners dont do much for Vancouver anymore. Canada became more strict in its immigration policies in line with the USA so many will choose to invest there instead.
Would you pay $2.5 million for a fixer upper in dunbar or a fantastic Mediterranean styled home in Pacific Palisades enjoying Californian weather?
Im wondering why we have member defending and supporting these ridiculous prices.
Explain to me how an average vancouver citizen can afford a home.
Most of revscene members are living in their parents homes hoping prices correct themselves to realistic values.
Let's see the primary interests of RS. (generalizing)
1. Cars
2. Entertainment
3. Dining
4. Vacation
5. Electronics.
Notice these are all hobbies/lifestyle expenses, some are a significant part of ones income.
Not much interest/posts in the Business/Financial section. Not many like finances/stocks/savings
Revscene could become Reposcene if there's a severe housing correction. The two sectors that will get crushed is construction and services. I wonder what the majority of Vancouver's economy rely on.....
Remember, The debt to disposable income ratio for Canadian households is at nearly 155%.
Seems like a lot of doom and gloom in this thread sprinkled with some good points.
I think some people are forgetting why Vancouver + GVRD is so good. Weather (best in Canada)
I agree with some of your post, but the above...do you seriously believe this? Not having really cold winters and really hot summers does not equate to the best weather in Canada. If you did an informal survey of Albertans who have moved to Vancouver, I bet you the majority would rather have -20 winters and sunshine everyday than mild rainy weather. I think the rain plays on people’s emotions when there are five or six days of it in row. Hardly the best weather in Canada.
__________________
"A chicken crossing the street is poultry in motion"
I agree with some of your post, but the above...do you seriously believe this? Not having really cold winters and really hot summers does not equate to the best weather in Canada. If you did an informal survey of Albertans who have moved to Vancouver, I bet you the majority would rather have -20 winters and sunshine everyday than mild rainy weather. I think the rain plays on people’s emotions when there are five or six days of it in row. Hardly the best weather in Canada.
I agree. I have spent a month in Toronto this winter and prefer it here dramatically. It's 4C today instead of 6C in Vancouver but sunny instead of raining... Vancouver also might have the "best" weather in Canada, but we still have some of the worst weather in North America. There are lots of other places you can consider for the same or less money...
Mark
__________________ I'm old now - boring street cars and sweet race cars.
I agree with some of your post, but the above...do you seriously believe this? Not having really cold winters and really hot summers does not equate to the best weather in Canada. If you did an informal survey of Albertans who have moved to Vancouver, I bet you the majority would rather have -20 winters and sunshine everyday than mild rainy weather. I think the rain plays on people’s emotions when there are five or six days of it in row. Hardly the best weather in Canada.
I had this exact conversation with a very high earning professional of late - she prefers Alberta weather on the whole because she says she can barely make it through the perma-grey in the winter
every new outlet reporting on the "down turn" was only using assesment value as the indicator
and every property i'm speaking of where i know the owner could be sold above assessment value, period.
Sure, you 'know' do you? The only way you know is if you actually sell
Te second best is to look at an extremely similar property down the road selling within last 21 days or so. You 'knowing' means nothing
Prices are coming down - they will continue to go down.
I don't 'know' this because I think I'm special or because I refuse to think I'm wrong, nor is it because the media says this or that, it is because fundamentals mandate price. Fundamentals have been calling for a correction, it's coming, you can drink all the Vancouver Kool aid you want, and make this and that claim, but economic truths rule here
Do you even live by yourself or work a real job? Based on these answers, I'd hope not - when you get into the business world, you'll start to understand that life is totally different to what you think it is... And for most, it sucks as they don't get that great paying job that they figured they deserved, especially if you stay in Vancouver (not speaking from personal experience, but I could make way more in Calgary, Toronto, or in the US - economies drive prices, FYI, not Kool aid)
Prices are coming down - they will continue to go down.
been keeping an eye on prices in certain areas of east van and burnaby the past 6 months. seems like prices are not going down for the area/type of home we're looking at but it's the same properties sitting there going unsold. some are selling but not a lot...that's from what i've seen when we're looking around.
Sure, you 'know' do you? The only way you know is if you actually sell
Te second best is to look at an extremely similar property down the road selling within last 21 days or so. You 'knowing' means nothing
Prices are coming down - they will continue to go down.
I don't 'know' this because I think I'm special or because I refuse to think I'm wrong, nor is it because the media says this or that, it is because fundamentals mandate price. Fundamentals have been calling for a correction, it's coming, you can drink all the Vancouver Kool aid you want, and make this and that claim, but economic truths rule here
Do you even live by yourself or work a real job? Based on these answers, I'd hope not - when you get into the business world, you'll start to understand that life is totally different to what you think it is... And for most, it sucks as they don't get that great paying job that they figured they deserved, especially if you stay in Vancouver (not speaking from personal experience, but I could make way more in Calgary, Toronto, or in the US - economies drive prices, FYI, not Kool aid)
Gee...maybe because a few of my friends are realtors in the areas I speak of selling at 10-20% over assessed value in the area and all the properties I'm speaking of are as desirable if not moreso than the previously sold ones?
Shit though, how da hell would I know anything right? Posted via RS Mobile
How about stop complaining about how you can't afford a home and either rent or work a little harder in your life. Posted via RS Mobile
This, it really frustrates me when I constantly hear people complaining about not being able to afford living in Vancouver or that there is no money to be made in Vancouver.
Seems way too many people in Vancouver have the mentality that they just want stuff handed to them and they don't have to work hard, well guess what, if you have an Arts degree or no solid education or vocational training, of course there is no money to be made, stop complaining about being able to afford something and that there is no money to be made, look in the mirror, you only have yourself to blame in most cases. Go out there and improve and better yourself and situation.
I can tell you this from 1st hand experience, if you have the right drive or education/training or know how, there is so much money to be made in Vancouver. I'm constantly having trouble filling high waged/salaried positions in film production due to lack of qualified locals and those wanting to work the hours. One of my best friends has been having trouble the last year filling positions for his company in a large post production VFX house that opened in Vancouver last year. I have other associates and friends who are futures and equities brokers clearing solid 5 figures monthly because they're constantly out there working hard and a buddy who just started his own Investor Relations/Marketing firm a year and half ago who is now making money hand over fist.
Yes, its not easy for the average person, but nothing is stopping that average person from looking themselves in the mirror and deciding to work harder and to get the right training/educational background. In the right fields, there is a lot of money to be made in Vancouver.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4444
I had this exact conversation with a very high earning professional of late - she prefers Alberta weather on the whole because she says she can barely make it through the perma-grey in the winter
Alberta has most comfortable climate, not BC; Enviro Cdn
The experts say we should cross The Rockies for nice weather
VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) – We are used to the superlatives here in Vancouver, with the West Coast topping so many global “best of” lists. But there is one list we don’t top, not even among the provinces, and it has to do with climate.
Environment Canada says Albertans are the luckiest people in Canada when it comes to the weather. Sure it’s cold and snowy (and it’s Alberta) but the sheer amount of sunshine beats BC by a mile. We are third on the list, trailing Saskatchewan.
BC produces a lot of rain but maybe government climatologists have been smoking our second most prolific product because, as everyone that lives on the West Coast knows, you don’t have to shovel rain in the winter.
Ian “Cowboy” Campbell at 660News in Calgary, a sister station of News1130, shovels something else when we asked him about his province’s strange ranking.
“I don’t know what you mean about strange,” he laughs. “We have a lot of a sunshine, it’s certainly our claim to fame and it’s something Vancouver can’t really brag about. I’m surprised you guys don’t need boats to get from place to place like you see in Venice.”
Campbell says Calgary does have a spectacular weather phenomenon to counterbalance the extreme cold.
“You forget the seven best letters in the English dictionary; C-H-I-N-O-O-K,” he chuckles. “It warms us up and we still get to play in the mountains. You guys rain so much I’m surprised you even ranked number three.”
His advice for surviving an Alberta winter? “Wear lots of long-johns and maybe enjoy a few adult soda pops here and there. That’s the best part of being a Canadian no matter where you are, I would say.”
Environment Canada looked at factors like sunshine, precipitation, humidity and temperature and ranked Alberta, Saskatchewan and BC the top three provinces. Quebec was ranked the least comfortable climate in Canada behind Nunavut and Newfoundland and Labrador.
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