Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[blkgsr]

Originally Posted by VR6GTI

When i purchased from this developer last time they were open to custom features.
Now it seems like they have a list of custom options but I'm gonna go back this sunday and inquire about extra soundproofing and some other custom options.

customs features like built ins is one thing....some plywood backing and some basic pre wiring sure, but full on construction assembly changes is a totally different story

there are fire rating (and sound rating) requirements and assembly details that are followed that have been reviewed and approved by the city...you start adding in resilient channels and different insulation you are adding new assemblies that need to be signed off by more than just the developer

[VR6GTI]

Originally Posted by blkgsr

customs features like built ins is one thing....some plywood backing and some basic pre wiring sure, but full on construction assembly changes is a totally different story

there are fire rating (and sound rating) requirements and assembly details that are followed that have been reviewed and approved by the city...you start adding in resilient channels and different insulation you are adding new assemblies that need to be signed off by more than just the developer

thanks for the info

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by blkgsr

how many large scale residential towers have you done Hondaracer? I'm not talking about renos etc.

NEVER have i see a potential home owner or prospective buyer be allowed to tour an active site (while in early construction) just to "check it out"

now if you're talking suites worth $2M+ that's a different story but not the cookie cutter basic units that this town is so good a pumping out

I'm just talking about townhouses, duplex, low rise, etc and just looking in from the street

Yea, obviously no ones getting into high rises

[Great68]

Originally Posted by blkgsr

NEVER have i see a potential home owner or prospective buyer be allowed to tour an active site (while in early construction) just to "check it out"

Just put on a hard hat, vest and steel toes and look like you belong there. :P

[GLOW]

Originally Posted by Great68

Just put on a hard hat, vest and steel toes and look like you belong there. :P

clip board or note pad helps too

[jasonturbo]

Mortgage rates inch higher from record summer lows - Business - CBC News

Canadian mortgage rates have bounced up from their record lows of this summer in anticipation of an improving economy prompting central banks to do the same.

Five-year, fixed-rate mortgages have inched up between 10 and 15 basis points since the summer, Penelope Graham, editor at RateSupermarket.ca said in an interview. A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point, so a 10-point hike is the equivalent of a mortgage rate going from 2.55 per cent to 2.65.

That would move the payment on a 25-year mortgage for $400,000 from $1,800 a month to $1,820 — not a large number in absolute terms but a psychological shock to mortgage holders who had perhaps gotten used to cheaper and cheaper borrowing for the last half-decade.

Fixed-rate mortgages, especially five-year ones, make up the lion's share of Canada's mortgage market, and their rates are intrinsically tied to activity in the bond market, because borrowing there is where banks generally come up with the money to loan to mortgage applicants who want to buy a home.

Bond yields rising

The cost of borrowing is going up everywhere. A five-year Government of Canada bond was paying out 0.6 per cent as recently as August. Today it's up by more than half, to 0.92 per cent — still low, but a factor in the quiet upward creep of mortgage rates.

Variable rate mortgages are closely tied to the central bank's rates, but the larger pool of fixed-rate mortgages are priced based on what's happening in the bond market because that's where banks finance their loans.

Banks make money on the spread between what they have to pay out on bonds they sell, and what they can get in return for loaning that money to home buyers. That spread has been thinning as the bond market reacts to a widely held belief that the U.S. central bank is getting ready to hike its benchmark interest rate for the first time in almost a decade.

Bond yields are rising in anticipation of that, and "when bond yields go up, so do fixed mortgage rates because lenders have to absorb those costs," Graham said.

When asked for comment, none of the five big Canadian banks provided details as to whether or not they had hiked their five-year rate recently, but a spokesperson with TD Bank said "we review our rates on an ongoing basis so that that we're providing competitive options to meet the needs of our customers."

Bank of Canada cut unlikely to move mortgages much
Small rate hike could leave mortgage holders stretched, survey finds
"In making rate decisions,we take into account a number of factors," the spokesperson said, adding that the bank did recently hike its rate on a less-common four-year mortgage by 10 basis points.

Many alternative lenders still have rates well below three per cent, but the big banks' rates are more closely watched since they tend to dominate the industry.

Customers can often negotiate a better deal with the bank than their posted rate offers, but according to RateSupermarket.ca, here's the posted five-year mortgage rate at each of Canada's biggest banks:

BMO — 2.79 per cent.
Royal Bank — 2.94 per cent.
Scotiabank — 4.49 per cent.
TD — 4.64 per cent.
CIBC — 4.79 per cent.
Fixed rate loans aren't the only ones inching higher, though. The Bank of Canada has cut its benchmark interest rate twice this year, and each time, lenders ratcheted their variable rates lower. The central bank is showing no signs of raising its benchmark rate, yet variable mortgage rates have inched up by 10 to 20 basis points from where it was in the summer.

TD, BMO lower rates to match central bank's cut
Why? Toronto mortgage broker Marcus Tzaferis at Morcan Direct said the banks cut rates earlier in the selling season to stay competitive, but now they don't have to.

"At the end of each year when lenders hit their caps you see rates inch up," he said, explaining a seasonal reason why variable rates tend to inch up in the winter when sales are soft. It's just more pronounced this year as major lenders have decided to draw a bigger line in the sand.

"It's 100 per cent profit," he said, adding that he saw discounts as much as 85 points below prime earlier this year, but that discount has now dropped to about 50 points.

Tzaferis said he wouldn't be surprised to see rates drop again in the busy spring buying season, and for her part Graham said any change in mortgage rates is likely to be gradual as policymakers and the lenders themselves will be eager to mitigate any resulting shock.

"Nobody has a crystal ball but if the economy improves, higher rates will accompany that some time in the future," she said.

"It's important to be savvy [now] you've got options," she said.

Only up from here folks.

[Liquid_o2]

Looked at the first post from over three years ago that sent this thread going for 172 long pages.

Big drop predicted for Vancouver real estate prices - British Columbia - CBC News

"We'll have something around a 30-to-40 per-cent decline in prices."

Detached house prices, particularly on Vancouver’s West Side, are well over $1 million,

East side detached are now selling for $2 million.

We can all talk about how it will rise or fall, but in the end nobody can predict the future.

[Carl Johnson]

but the "fundamentals" say it will fall. it has to. you guys just wait. another 5 months this bubble will burst. meanwhile i will keep paying rent to my landLORD.




that was a joke by the way. Garth and David Madani have been calling doom for years. i can't believe people still listen to those idiots.

[Mr.C]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

but the "fundamentals" say it will fall. it has to. you guys just wait. another 5 months this bubble will burst. meanwhile i will keep paying rent to my landLORD.




that was a joke by the way. Garth and David Madani have been calling doom for years. i can't believe people still listen to those idiots.

At the price I rent, I'd have to live here for 80 years to break even vs mortgage. Ehhhh...

His Lordship can take my money.

[Carl Johnson]

you go ahead and rent for 50+ years. but just know the 1%er got where they are at by owning 3 things: people, businesses, and properties.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

you go ahead and rent for 50+ years. but just know the 1%er got where they are at by owning 3 things: people, businesses, and properties.

They own properties that yield positive cash flow. You can look the increase in property prices as part of that yield, but I'm not highly confident this trend can go on for much longer.

The 1% invest by considering risks and returns and then make educated guesses. For me anyone entering now is purely speculating. There is nothing fundamental supporting it other than hype.

If you want to become 1%er by buying and selling properties, look elsewhere. The return/risk is just too low for GVR.

[Hondaracer]

Lol..two different people I know bought and reno'd in Langley last November. With the initia purchase price + Reno costs the house is worth another 80-100k than it was last November (based on neighboring houses which are essentially interior guts going for those prices)

I'd say those are pretty good margins.

So In a year, you made 80-100k, If it continued even at half or a quarter of that pace, it's going to take a hell of a "correction" to actually lose money on investment.

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Lol..two different people I know bought and reno'd in Langley last November. With the initia purchase price + Reno costs the house is worth another 80-100k than it was last November (based on neighboring houses which are essentially interior guts going for those prices)

I'd say those are pretty good margins.

So In a year, you made 80-100k, If it continued even at half or a quarter of that pace, it's going to take a hell of a "correction" to actually lose money on investment.

Builders are still making money.
Buy a shitty Vancouver teardown for $900K.
Build a duplex for $600K.
Rezoning cost $???
Sell each side for $900K
Profit $???

I'm seeing quite a few newly built duplexes popping up in Vancouver and Burnaby and some in Coquitlam.
They all fall under the same front/back design for duplexes.
In Coquitlam, I saw a few where only the garage is connected but the 2 houses are seperate but still considered a duplex.

[yray]

Minoru towers @ 338k

Somethings wrong with this city

[Carl Johnson]

Originally Posted by Hehe

They own properties that yield positive cash flow. You can look the increase in property prices as part of that yield, but I'm not highly confident this trend can go on for much longer.

The 1% invest by considering risks and returns and then make educated guesses. For me anyone entering now is purely speculating. There is nothing fundamental supporting it other than hype.

If you want to become 1%er by buying and selling properties, look elsewhere. The return/risk is just too low for GVR.

anyone entering the market to buy a home is not speculating. i simply stated that buying is a much better option over the long run than renting. throughout history people who've owned property comes out way ahead than people who rent.

4444 can fail me all he wants but this guy has little credibility if his own parents owns or owned 9 properties and he is a landlord himself.

all the people concerned if the real estate bubble will pop or not, but no one in thread pointed out how stupid, foolish and reckless a move you are making if you rent for a long time. anyone seriously wants to deal with peevish landlord every month? having your own place to unwind after a hard day at work or school is way beyond just the financials.

[Z3guy]

I agree with everyone about the fundamentals not making sense in Vancouver, but the fact is anyone who has bought dirt in the GVRD over the past 10 years in Vancouver has made huge gains in their property value. Heck, no joke, the guy who cuts my hair, has bought, built and sold 4 houses in the last 8yrs and now lives in a 3.5 million dollar house in Kits with no mortgage. He might not be a rocket scientist but he is lucky enough the market kept going up when he was buying and selling.

[VR6GTI]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Lol..two different people I know bought and reno'd in Langley last November. With the initia purchase price + Reno costs the house is worth another 80-100k than it was last November (based on neighboring houses which are essentially interior guts going for those prices)

I'd say those are pretty good margins.

So In a year, you made 80-100k, If it continued even at half or a quarter of that pace, it's going to take a hell of a "correction" to actually lose money on investment.

Technically they didn't make a penny unless they sold.

[Gumby]

Originally Posted by SumAznGuy

Builders are still making money.
Buy a shitty Vancouver teardown for $900K.
Build a duplex for $600K.
Rezoning cost $???
Sell each side for $900K
Profit $???

Hard to find a teardown in Vancouver for under $1M nowadays...

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by VR6GTI

Technically they didn't make a penny unless they sold.

House beside them sold in 4 days for the figures I laid out. The potential is there but why sell a house you reno'd to live in.

Talking moreso to the "chance" of a correction, it would have to be a big one to lose on the property.

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by Gumby

Hard to find a teardown in Vancouver for under $1M nowadays...

That's not true.
My realtor has me set up to see properties that go up for sale for less than $1M and I see their selling prices once they are sold.
Since Littledragon posted it on page 163, we''ll start with this one.
2995 McGill st.
Asking $948,888 Aug 6.
Sold Oct 27 for $916,000.
Not really a tear down as it is still an 80's Vancouver special.

3745 Quebec St.
108 year old house to be bought as land only with a house on it.
Sold in 30 days for $920K. Asking price was $949K

A little on the high side but 3304 Austrey Ave.
69 year old "as is" house on a 33x100 corner lot.
Oct 6. asking $879,888. Sold in 5 days for for $961K

4031 Victoria Dr.
114 year old house asking $899K, sold in 16 days for $905K

But of course, I had to go through a lot of sold for way above asking price to find these few examples. But if builders are focusing on older houses that are "as is" then they are buying for less than $1M.
From what I am finding, move in ready places are going for over $1M.

[Tapioca]

If you can afford to make the payments at 5%, then buy and live your life. Everyone is at risk of losing their source of income, whether times are good or bad. Just make sure your family is adequately insured in case disaster strikes (disability, death, or cancer) and you're good to go.

But wait, it's Vancouver - no one makes enough money to do any of this...

[4444]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

4444 can fail me all he wants but this guy has little credibility if his own parents owns or owned 9 properties and he is a landlord himself.

that is perhaps the worst reason for you to say i have little credibility. i could think of way better ones, but by saying that i have significant real estate assets (i'm talking about the ones i own in my name and bought with my own cash / debt, not my family assets) that have made me loads of money (bought in times when cash returns were way higher than historical / based on fundamentals), would actually give me more credibility.

also, none of the canadian properties bought in the last 10 years or so.

most properties are outside of canada.

the shortest owned properties (purchase to sale) are in the US, bought at the bottom of the market, and sold for gains of approx. 80-100% in Cdn. over 3-4 years, all whilst yielding an average of 9% (some had problems with tenants, yield should have been better - one of the houses which made the most capital appreciation was the worst rental)

we have been liquidating US (i) and canadian (family) properties over last little while.

i never said i don't like real estate as an investment (all properties cash flow like hell, hence why it's an investment not speculation), they are part of a diversification plan. having said that, going forward i will only every buy when it makes sense through either the use of leverage for high yielding property or if i see another US style crash. otherwise, real estate is too risky / too much hassle for the return. i can make better, more diversified return elsewhere (financials)

vancouver real estate stopped being an investment a long time ago. you can all say 'as long as it goes up 1/2 as much as today, we're set', but no where in history, in any city in the world has real estate gone up, up, up, up. long term it goes up at inflation or at around inflation +1%. vancouver's not different - just don't be the one holding highly levered properties when the fun stops, in the meantime, if you make big bucks and actually realize them by selling, good for you.

[GLOW]

don't the major cities in the world keep going up like HK, NY, Tokyo, London etc, not that i'm comparing vancouver to those places - just wondering if those cities never have/will receive a crash and will keep going up

[Hondaracer]

In some ways Van is more desirable than a lot of those places due to the supply and still "reasonable" prices in the worlds eye.

Also with all the terrorism etc Happening In the world, you would have to think Vancouver is only looking more and more desirable based simply on geographical location.

[hypediss]

Originally Posted by GLOW

don't the major cities in the world keep going up like HK, NY, Tokyo, London etc, not that i'm comparing vancouver to those places - just wondering if those cities never have/will receive a crash and will keep going up

Hong Kong prices have taken in the previous decade - my parents suffered that crash and thankfully have recovered through this decades growth.

Tokyo's average has remain modest due to the fact that they are still suffering from decades of economic slowdown

Can't comment on NY and London..