Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

4444 can fail me all he wants

Not true, I'm sure if he had the chance he would fail you multiple times for a single post, unfortunately, our current forum only supports one fail per user per post.

But I digress, there is basically no evidence to support the notion that foreign buyers are driving up the market. There is however ample evidence to suggest that domestic buyers have driven the market up by pigging out on debt (Ref. CMHC stats and data showing household debt at all time high etc). If it is your home you have nothing to really worry about, if you are a speculator who is in the game of holding properties that you expect will appreciate forever, you might want to really consider the impact rising interest rates could have on sentiment. Rising interest rates are the "it's time to sell" alarm. The BOC will ultimately determine when it's time for housing to cool off.

[Selanne_200]

Well despite being called the most expensive city in the world, property prices have been falling steadily in HK for the last few months or so. Sure it might not be as easy to flip new developments anymore but the mass supply of housing with a lot of developer incentives have driven down prices on the secondary market. Some older, more desirable estate development at 20-30 years old were being sold at 10-15% discount. Sure the prices are still outrageous but this is also a market that's built on a lot of speculations. I can still see condo markets in Vancouver experiencing the same eventually but detached homes are a different story.

[Mr.C]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

you go ahead and rent for 50+ years. but just know the 1%er got where they are at by owning 3 things: people, businesses, and properties.

The 1% didn't get there by buying real estate to live in. There's a huge abyss in buying to live vs buying to invest.

[4444]

Originally Posted by GLOW

don't the major cities in the world keep going up like HK, NY, Tokyo, London etc, not that i'm comparing vancouver to those places - just wondering if those cities never have/will receive a crash and will keep going up

in the recent history, yes. longer term absolutely not.

in the long term everything goes up. buying today in vancouver can 'make sense' in the super long term. it's like everything, there's good times to buy, bad times to buy, good times to just sit on cash.

everything is expensive right now, even financials. you can thank QE, low rates, and some other factors.

[flagella]

Sigh... This notion of "foreign buyers aren't driving the housing market because no evidence" crap needs to stop. Yes indeed they are not the only factor that's driving the market. The cheap credit is fueling the purchase for many local buyers but low interest rates have been in existence for several years at least. They do not explain the substantial rise in real estate prices this summer, especially considering the disconnect between rise in real estate prices and our underlying economy.

From my experiences early this year shopping for a house, foreign buyers have made it increasingly difficult thanks to bidding well above the asking price and often with no subject. This has been the experiences of probably at least 90% of the people I've spoken to over the last 12 months.

People can try to sound smart all they want asking for hard data, but there is strong anecdotal evidence from people around us who have personally experienced immense difficulty in purchasing a house.

Don't get me wrong. We want the data and have been demanding the data, but clearly government is acting slow. Of course they would, considering the record $1.3 billion of property taxes they collected were $350 million higher than budgeted this year thanks to this crazy real estate market, which helps offset decline from other sources such as natural gas royalties.

[4444]

anecdotal "evidence" with a sample size of two, so take with a grain of salt:

two houses sold within last 2 months:

first, sold to locals, caucasian (approx. $1M)
second property (>$1M), first offer from (What we assume are) local chinese people, but here's the kicker, they offered with subjects but were never heard from again. Per our real estate guy (family friend), there is a trend of local chinese people who make LOADS of offers with subjects who then go and try to flip to mainlanders before closing to make a profit. the subjects allow them to just walk. this is not the same group offering all cash / no subjects, be clear about this, but they do offer the 'best' price oftentimes, but the subjects save their bacon.

and this is where i actually think the government should step in (and i'm all about free markets).

house ended up sold to chinese-canadians from white rock.

totally anecdotal, take with a grain of salt, but interesting to see

there is a china factor
there is a low interest rate factor
there is a MSM factor leading the lambs to slaughter
there is a low inventory factor, ESPECIALLY for SFH

what the breakdown is, not sure. regardless of all factors, it will end ugly for a large handful of people who are overstretched. the best position for society as a whole is when housing is 'fairly' priced for people who work where they live. if things don't change within the next 3-5 years, i can see some societal issues rearing their ugly heads, with the most issues being racial in nature. we already see it.

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

But I digress, there is basically no evidence to support the notion that foreign buyers are driving up the market.

It boggles my mind how some are in denial. Do you even live here?

The single biggest factor for property prices ncreasing 30% this year was due to currency. If I need to move money to Canada, well due to the dollars decline, my money is now worth 25-30% more.

[flagella]

Originally Posted by iEatClams

It boggles my mind how some are in denial. Do you even live here?

The single biggest factor for property prices ncreasing 30% this year was due to currency. If I need to move money to Canada, well due to the dollars decline, my money is now worth 25-30% more.

Pretty much what one of my friends said. "With CAD being so weak now relative to yuan, I should buy another house."

Cheaper CAD and increased crackdown in China aren't helping. The short sighted politicians here are my helping.

[StylinRed]

don't normally discuss this on here but i was just pretty shocked at the result
we sold a dilapidated apartment (horrible tennant), as is, listed @$25k below market, and it was bid up $100k over asking

kits, asian buyers

[68style]

Black Friday swarm mentality even applies to dilapidated Kits apartments!!!

[VR6GTI]

Originally Posted by StylinRed

don't normally discuss this on here but i was just pretty shocked at the result
we sold a dilapidated apartment (horrible tennant), as is, listed @$25k below market, and it was bid up $100k over asking

kits, asian buyers

Congrats! I just bought a house and was crunching numbers to see if I can keep my current apartment to rent it out. story like that makes me want to sell though lol

[fliptuner]

Maybe sell it, use some to put into the new house and invest the rest.

Congrats on the new house.

[Z3guy]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

Not true, I'm sure if he had the chance he would fail you multiple times for a single post, unfortunately, our current forum only supports one fail per user per post.

But I digress, there is basically no evidence to support the notion that foreign buyers are driving up the market. There is however ample evidence to suggest that domestic buyers have driven the market up by pigging out on debt (Ref. CMHC stats and data showing household debt at all time high etc). If it is your home you have nothing to really worry about, if you are a speculator who is in the game of holding properties that you expect will appreciate forever, you might want to really consider the impact rising interest rates could have on sentiment. Rising interest rates are the "it's time to sell" alarm. The BOC will ultimately determine when it's time for housing to cool off.

Dude, you must have lived in edm to long to think foreign buyers are not driving up the market. That is one of the funniest statements I have heard in a while. Lol!

[VR6GTI]

Originally Posted by fliptuner

Maybe sell it, use some to put into the new house and invest the rest.

Congrats on the new house.

Thanks
I'm leaning that way but heres the situation
-I have the 20% to put down on the house already
-A friend who runs a rental company that will look after the unit for $100/month, so i do nothing
-It will never be empty because where i am its a desired area for young couples and families
-Only thing is with the mortgage and expenses I guess ill have to fork out $3-$500/month

If i rent it, i think ill be laughing in 15 years, or do i sell it in this crazy market that is at a all time high

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by Z3guy

Dude, you must have lived in edm to long to think foreign buyers are not driving up the market. That is one of the funniest statements I have heard in a while. Lol!

Well, your opinion is supported only with anecdotal evidence, my opinion is supported with data, specifically;

(Ben Tal)... But he leaves no doubt that mortgage debt is rising fast and reached $1.2 trillion outstanding in the second quarter of 2015. Five years earlier it was only $923 billion. But the low interest rate environment that has seen variable rate mortgages drop below 2 per cent has consumers actually paying less interest.

Canadians? mortgage debt ramping up fast as cheap money fuels leap in luxury home prices | Financial Post

You still think it's foreign buyers? 300B worth of new mortgage debt over the last 5 years... if the prices are being driven up by foreign buyers where did that 300B go?

[kr4l]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

Well, your opinion is supported only with anecdotal evidence, my opinion is supported with data, specifically;



Canadians? mortgage debt ramping up fast as cheap money fuels leap in luxury home prices | Financial Post

You still think it's foreign buyers? 300B worth of new mortgage debt over the last 5 years... if the prices are being driven up by foreign buyers where did that 300B go?

yes, it's still foreign buyers. Do you know how I know?

Here's my evidence. I went to look at quite a few investment properties. 99.999% that were there viewing were foreign buyers (Mandarin speaking). Houses, condos, anything.

A month back a went to w1 prebuy for marine and Cambie since I have a unit at mc2 right next to it. It was asking for $100k more for the same type of unit. I was there for about 2 hours. In total, there was 2 caucasian people that came in. They were clueless as to what was going on. On the other hand, the foreign Chinese buying already throwing money at the sales people which were also all Chinese.

I also read an article about a year back in the newspaper saying foreign investors weren't driving up the market which I thought was horseshit. A month later it said they might be. Finally, they said they said foreign investors were buying some crazy percentage of the market. Dont believe anything on the news

My 2 cents. Could be wrong but from what I actually see with my eyes, I doubt it

[noclue]

Some Chinese people put a huge downpayment 50%+ and can get qualified for a mortgage.

Some people that speak mandarin can be Canadian citizens.

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by kr4l

yes, it's still foreign buyers. Do you know how I know?

Here's my evidence. I went to look at quite a few investment properties. 99.999% that were there viewing were foreign buyers (Mandarin speaking). Houses, condos, anything.

A month back a went to w1 prebuy for marine and Cambie since I have a unit at mc2 right next to it. It was asking for $100k more for the same type of unit. I was there for about 2 hours. In total, there was 2 caucasian people that came in. They were clueless as to what was going on. On the other hand, the foreign Chinese buying already throwing money at the sales people which were also all Chinese.

I also read an article about a year back in the newspaper saying foreign investors weren't driving up the market which I thought was horseshit. A month later it said they might be. Finally, they said they said foreign investors were buying some crazy percentage of the market. Dont believe anything on the news

My 2 cents. Could be wrong but from what I actually see with my eyes, I doubt it

From your location and everything you've said it sounds as though your anecdotal evidence also comes from a very isolated sampling.

Richmond has an immigrant population of 60%, the highest in Canada.[2] Richmond has 50% of residents identifying as Chinese, the city in North America with the largest proportion of Asians.[8] More than half of its population is of Asian descent, many of whom immigrated in the late 1980s, mostly from Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Mainland China

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmo...a#Demographics

Just as you say it's all foreign asians buying up homes because of your isolated exposure in Richmond and South Van, I would tell you it's all white Canadian people because my exposure is primarily the North Shore.

There is little/no data to support that foreign buyers are responsible for driving up home prices. Suggesting it only means that you are discounting the fact that interest rates are at all time lows and Canadian mortgage debt is at an all time high.

Ask Westopher who recently bought a home if he would have done so/bought the same home if he had to do it with a mortgage rate of 6%+.

Rates are making the market, not foreign buyers. If I'm wrong then when rates reset to higher levels property will just keep appreciating...

[flagella]

jason, foreign buyers get mortgage too, especially when it's cheaper for them to borrow here. I know plenty who managed to obtain it through loopholes.

You only have evidence that cheap credit is one of the factors that is fueling housing market prices and no one is disagreeing with you. But you have no evidence that foreign buyers aren't impacting the Vancouver housing market. The anecdotal evidence is better than lack of data on foreign ownership.

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by flagella

jason, foreign buyers get mortgage too, especially when it's cheaper for them to borrow here. I know plenty who managed to obtain it through loopholes.

You only have evidence that cheap credit is one of the factors that is fueling housing market prices and no one is disagreeing with you. But you have no evidence that foreign buyers aren't impacting the Vancouver housing market. The anecdotal evidence is better than lack of data on foreign ownership.

I'm not sure that anecdotal evidence is better than a lack of data, if anything it's probably worse.

I would agree that there are isolated areas with a larger percentage of foreign ownership (Richmond, South Van, Metrotown Burnaby). However, I will also say that there are a number of areas (North Shore, Squamish, White Rock, Downtown) where the ownership is primarily Caucasian Canadian, and these areas are also seeing massive price appreciation without (what appears to be) massive amounts of foreign ownership.

I spend time all over Canada, prices are high everywhere, and it's not because there is a massive swarm of foreign buyers snapping everything up.

[noclue]

that new squamish development sold out in 90 minutes and judging from the line up photo most appear to be white. The squamish reserve must be complaining about white people buying up squamish!

jasonturbo weren't you planning on buying in North Van? Or are you going to wait out a year to see how much interest rates will be?

[Alpine]

Generally speaking, people that have participated in this market ( either by visiting show rooms, open houses, etc, making offers, purchasing, work in the construction or design industry...) know whats driving the market. The key driver is or was foreign purchasers, but low interest rates, low supply, emotion and momentum have maintained it.
My condo has gone up 80k in 6 months which is almost 75% of my downpayment. As an asset it has performed amazingly. People that were considering buying but didnt buy 6 months ago are probably kicking themselves and are in a rush to get in now. And the same sentiment has probably been felt by anyone that has been interested in purchasing but delayed their decision in the lower mainland. Ive seen this from everyone that i know of that has been in the market over the past few years, and even with speaking with realtors they all share the same story.

[jasonturbo]

Nahh change of plans, we're going to buy in Mainland China, give them a taste of their own medicine.



Unsure if we are moving back to the GVA or south of the border, I've been getting some interesting job offers lately... turns out there is a great big world outside of Vancouver BC, who knew. While I do love Van, it's very tempting to live somewhere warmer/sunnier/half the price.

[Z3guy]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

Well, your opinion is supported only with anecdotal evidence, my opinion is supported with data, specifically;



Canadians? mortgage debt ramping up fast as cheap money fuels leap in luxury home prices | Financial Post

You still think it's foreign buyers? 300B worth of new mortgage debt over the last 5 years... if the prices are being driven up by foreign buyers where did that 300B go?

Ok 4444......haha! I wonder who all these platinum club gold madallion madarin speaking realtors are selling too? Must be local caucausians lol! Yes that is anecdotal info. So are the 7 houses that sold in my neighbourhood over the past 6 months all were bought by families from China specifically

Stick to your fundamentals and just rent......

[kr4l]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

From your location and everything you've said it sounds as though your anecdotal evidence also comes from a very isolated sampling.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmo...a#Demographics

Just as you say it's all foreign asians buying up homes because of your isolated exposure in Richmond and South Van, I would tell you it's all white Canadian people because my exposure is primarily the North Shore.

There is little/no data to support that foreign buyers are responsible for driving up home prices. Suggesting it only means that you are discounting the fact that interest rates are at all time lows and Canadian mortgage debt is at an all time high.

Ask Westopher who recently bought a home if he would have done so/bought the same home if he had to do it with a mortgage rate of 6%+.

Rates are making the market, not foreign buyers. If I'm wrong then when rates reset to higher levels property will just keep appreciating...

you have your opinion and I have mine. We bought our house 2 years ago in Richmond and our apartment 3 years ago in Vancouver so I'm not just pulling shit outta my ass.

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

I'm not sure that anecdotal evidence is better than a lack of data, if anything it's probably worse.

I would agree that there are isolated areas with a larger percentage of foreign ownership (Richmond, South Van, Metrotown Burnaby). However, I will also say that there are a number of areas (North Shore, Squamish, White Rock, Downtown) where the ownership is primarily Caucasian Canadian, and these areas are also seeing massive price appreciation without (what appears to be) massive amounts of foreign ownership.

I spend time all over Canada, prices are high everywhere, and it's not because there is a massive swarm of foreign buyers snapping everything up.

The areas you speak of, north shore, Squamish see massive price appreciation without massive amounts of foreign ownership is because most people can't afford to buy in Vancouver, so people have to move out to those areas making more demand for them, which in turn up there value. Maybe maple ridge and Langley will see it one day as well.

You really think China wants to buy in those places? (except white rock maybe??) I haven't heard any china wanting to buy a place in Squamish. They probably don't even know where that is. That's where Caucasians (or anyone for that matter) who can't afford to buy in Vancouver go. China don't buy places in downtown Vancouver because its a petty 500sqft apartment. Why buy that when they can buy an actual house with land that's actually worth something. Of course there are more places in downtown worth money. That's why most of them are empty, owned by the foreign investors.

I'm also from Edmonton. I don't see housing being expensive there. I coulda bought a house there for the price I paid for my investment condo here. Foreign investors aren't snatching up houses there because they have money to blow. Even you would rather pick Vancouver over Edmonton. Why would they want to live there

Prices I believe will continue to go up because 1.) there is no land to build new houses in Vancouver. They are knocking down houses to build townhomes which makes having your own land more valuable 2.) our dollar is terrible, making there money more worth spending.

But I'm no expert, just throwing my random thoughts out there.