REVscene Automotive Forum - Vancouver's Real Estate Market

REVscene Automotive Forum (https://www.revscene.net/forums/)

- Vancouver Off-Topic / Current Events (https://www.revscene.net/forums/vancouver-off-topic-current-events_50/)

- - Vancouver's Real Estate Market (https://www.revscene.net/forums/674709-vancouvers-real-estate-market.html)

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkttsang (Post 8709015)

I work in the healthcare system also and what I do see is that the older people do move away from Vancouver to maple ridge or Langley. Then their position gets filled by either single new out of school people or people from out of country who wants to live here for a couple years. Then those out of towers moves away again or the young out of school person gets marry have kids and the again move away from Vancouver. So the turn over rate is high, and every time there's a turn over there's training time, which means we need. Extra nurse to cover while the one person is training and so we r now short because we can try to find a casual to cover but it's difficult. Smaller community hospital do not see much turnover because that's where people go to retire, much easier work than a trauma centre like vgh rch or smh. Which is why the big hospital is always short, due to the turnover mostly. And the turnover cost a lot of money when ur paying to train and find extra person to cover if u can. Retention is a difficult problem from those places

I also have a lot of family/friends in the nursing field.
Yup, nurse turnover is super high. Not to mention certain areas like operating room or more stressful areas/traumas have even higher turnovers. There's also not many "good" or "high quality" nurses anymore, many lack proper bedside manners and compassion/communication/common sense skills.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasonturbo (Post 8708888)

While I can appreciate that you've provided some statistics they don't necessarily support your argument in any way.

Data is open to interpretation, you've elected to believe that the statistics you posted somehow support the idea that that HK'ers are responsible for the rapid appreciation in home prices in Vancouver. Others may not feel that these statistics really support your position...

Believe whatever you want to believe I guess. If you believe that HK'ers are the reason we have to live in shoe boxes would you care to speculate on when the madness ends and how? Do prices go up forever? Do they stabilize? When do they stabilize? Will the HK'ers make a dramatic flee for the hills one day? etc.

I'm currently considering buying a place in N.Van worth just >1M, even though I think the prices are bananas, the interest rates make it attractive to me. What does that tell you? It tells you that moderately well-to-do Canadian yuppies are willing to take on massive mortgages because money is cheap.

Your right, data, or lack thereof, is open to interpretation. Many on here believe foreign money plays a major role in the increase in real estate prices, and your opinion is that it does not.

We are all entitled to our own opinions. And I agree the low interest rates are affecting RE prices. But the variable rate has been this low for the longest time. You can get 2-2.5% variables and 2.8-3% 5 year fix rates for the last 3 years (even lower at some lenders), the rates have been low for quite a long time.

TWDM was saying how it's similar to Hong Kong, where rich mainlanders are coming in and buying up a lot of the Real estate, making prices un-affordable to even high income earners.

Having said this, I do work in the real estate industry (commercial side) and I don't want the money to stop coming in, and an ALL out restriction on foreign money I think would really cause a 30%+ real estate crash, which I don't think the government wants. Having said that there's are limitations that an all out restriction would be difficult to implement.

I know first hand that even a lot of the industrial and commercial properties, even some of the major office buildings are being bought by Chinese business groups.

Where it will all go is pure speculation, but the foreign money will keep coming in. I only hope that we follow other countries and put some sort of restrictions or tax on the money coming in so that the prices don't keep increasing at crazy rates (10%+ a year). This is dangerous as many of the people that took on too much debt to buy RE will be in a lot of trouble if there's some sort of economic or systemic shock. Not to mention the other social issues that twdm mentioned.

Srs question..at what point does housing become "affordable"

Is a 2000sq foot east Van home "affordable" at $800,000 with a higher interest rate?

Usually affordability is measured as a percentage of gross average household income that is needed for home ownership costs (inc taxes/mortgage etc). The "home" is basically an average 2 storey or comparable. For example Vancouver is at 90.3% according to the RBC index from this July.

The other hotspot is Toronto at 67.5% and the national average was 43.3%.

Just get rid of the ALR in Richmond. No one there is actually farming, just waiting for the day its released and enjoying that ag tax bracket for chump change in berries.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hondaracer (Post 8709052)

Srs question..at what point does housing become "affordable"

Is a 2000sq foot east Van home "affordable" at $800,000 with a higher interest rate?

Even if the interest rate was low it's still unaffordable at $800,000.

Let's be real, if housing prices dropped 50%, it'd still be 'unaffordable' (houses)

However, there are ways to make it affordable to you if you can actually get a down payment on it. Houses generally are built so they have 2 rental units underneath, and a laneway if you have the lot size. This easy helps with the mortgage or even pays for it since Vancouver will ALWAYS be a renters market. You just have to sacrifice the living space, privacy, and possible destruction of your units

So i think we can safely assume, until the bomb drops, or an earth quake happens, Vancouver will -never- be affordable

edit* in terms of like you said, detached homes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hondaracer (Post 8709081)

So i think we can safely assume, until the bomb drops, or an earth quake happens, Vancouver will -never- be affordable

edit* in terms of like you said, detached homes.

Once "THAT" tsunami hits that Canada is long overdue for, that should scare away the China and make housing more affordable. But IMHO, I still don't think prices will drop all that much

Quote:

Originally Posted by kr4l (Post 8709085)

Once "THAT" tsunami hits that Canada is long overdue for, that should scare away the China and make housing more affordable. But IMHO, I still don't think prices will drop all that much

depends, if an earthquake hits or somehow Vancouvers economy goes down the shitter where a lot of people lose jobs, then I can see some significant price jobs.

It's dropping in Alberta, Fort Mac has seen almost 20% declines in prices:

Fort McMurray sees plunge of nearly $125,000 in average home prices with more pain to come | Calgary Herald

Even then, the vancouver detached homes market went up 20%+ in 2015, so going down 20% will just bring it back to 2014 levels. :badpokerface:

Quote:

Originally Posted by iEatClams (Post 8709099)

Alberta is all about o&g. Lots of my friends have been laid off due to the recession. The decline in price is no surprise as many are out of jobs and it's not like China wants to move there. Alberta also has a shit ton of land to build on. Every year I head back to visit, there is a whole new community on the south side.

Vancouver on the other hand doesn't have much except tourism. Everyone I know says they take a pay cut if they move to Vancouver which is true. I don't see a significant job loss coming because Vancouver doesn't rely heavy in any industry. It's not like people will stop coming to Vancouver and the tourism market will just die. O&g was the ONLY thing Alberta had going for them. Once that goes down hill, so does everything else.

Vancouver will always be a renters market. It's easy to suggest to just pack up and move elsewhere, but when the time comes, would you sacrifice your job, your significant others job, family, friends, and lifestyle to move away? Easier said then done.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kr4l (Post 8709103)

I don't see a significant job loss coming because Vancouver doesn't rely heavy in any industry.

From what I understand the housing industry is huge in Vancouver and new construction in Vancouver accounts for over 10% of the whole province's GDP. If this industry takes a hit it will be a fast downward spiral (which is what I am seeing now in Alberta with us relying on Oil and Gas as huge part of the GDP). I'm a dumbass for not buying some condos in Van 10 years ago when I briefly entertained the idea :QQ:

generally the top industries in Vancouver is
Government (municipal to federal)
Film (depends on tax credits, exchange ratio)
Construction (trades, developers)
Professional Services (accounting, law, financing, brokers)
Mining (on death row atm)
Software (growing)

But yeah construction is the biggest in the lower mainland and if it goes down it's going to have a lot of collateral damage like in 2009.

Quote:

Originally Posted by noclue (Post 8709170)

generally the top industries in Vancouver is
Government (municipal to federal)
Film (depends on tax credits, exchange ratio)
Construction (trades, developers)
Professional Services (accounting, law, financing, brokers)
Mining (on death row atm)
Software (growing)

But yeah construction is the biggest in the lower mainland and if it goes down it's going to have a lot of collateral damage like in 2009.

That is terrible. Seeing that is absolutely disgusting.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hondaracer (Post 8708914)

Also this whole "brain drain" thing sure isn't effecting like, literally everyone I know/associate myself with? Lol young professionals at every level, entry level workers, trades, nurses, etc all have jobs and doing well?

Is the "brain drain" effecting those who can punch numbers and pass tests in school but couldn't pass an interview at mcdicks?

I can actually say the opposite for my age group (mid-late 20s). As someone about 4 years removed from university, almost half the people I still associate with from university (business faculty) have left Vancouver. And FYI, these are not people who came here from HK or China for school. These are people BORN in Canada with no ties to HK/China.

Pretty much the exact same story for each of them:
Get a decent job at a big name company but be severely underpaid compared to other regions
Realize after 2 years that you have no chance at decent career progression because you're working at a shitty satellite office that has no say in anything the company does
Get a job offer in Toronto or US and make 50+% more than you could make in Vancouver

Quote:

Originally Posted by twdm (Post 8708975)

Well, I actually have access to Fraser Health's Internal hiring systems and both my parents work as nurses in BC. So I think I might have a little more insight than you.

This is in addition to the 591 postings to their external website. Note, these are ones that have gone through the internal process and were unable to hire anyone.

https://careers.fraserhealth.ca/Sear...ngs&search=all
Just filter Nurse

This is in addition to the other Health authorities in BC/Renal Agency/Cancer Agency/Providence Health/Vancouver Coastal and whatever I missed.

The majority of the postings you listed are for non nursing positions. My wife has switched departments 9 times over her career which would show a lot of turnover in those departments but she has been with VCH for 10 years. Since you are so well informed perhaps you have the info of VCH employees leaving to join FHA to indicate the brain drain. Otherwise turnover could just indicate people leaving their positions because they no longer like their department/are sick of working nights but staying at the same hospitals

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adorkami (Post 8709494)

Dawg, do you even read? I said filter Nurse. Turnover indicates available openings. If every post is filled, then you can't have the type of turnover you described. #open postings = #number of vacancies, it doesnt matter if there's turnover. Just like magical chairs, if there's 3 people and 5 chairs, it doesnt matter how many times you switch chairs... there's still two empty seats.

You guys are putting too much thought into this whole brain drain thing.

It's nothing new, and will continue to happen.
In the 90's, you had people leaving Vancouver to go work for Nortel and start up dot com companies in the US. When the Dot com bubble burst, some came back.
Last 10 years, people left to go work in the oil fields of Alberta, well some are coming back.
People left Vancouver to go look for work in HK. Some eventually came back, due to lack of work or expensive life style or lack of work life balance.
Same goes to working in Ont/Alberta.
Move to Ont/Ab and enjoy the hot hot summers and cold cold winters.

Pay is not the end all be all. Lifestyle/family is important.
Those that can leave, will leave. But the same can be said. Those that can leave will leave and come to Vancouver.

Interesting read and insight on how overheated our luxury real estate market really is:

Quote:

A BCBusiness investigation into 40 transactions along one iconic Vancouver street—who’s buying who’s paying cash, who’s tearing down and building anew—reveals a real estate market unhinged

Quote:

As far as overheated markets go, Vancouver’s is without equal in Canada. The average sale price for a detached house in the city proper stood at $2.2 million in September 2015; in the city of Toronto, by comparison, the equivalent number was $1.05 million while in Calgary it was $523,434. And nowhere has the action been more intense than on Vancouver’s west side, where the median sales price was pushing $2.87 million by September 2015 and where most of what might be considered “luxury” homes—those selling for over $4 million—were sold. In the first six months of this year, 206 houses in Vancouver sold for more than $4 million and 722 for between $2 million and $4 million. In Toronto, by contrast—a market three times as big as Vancouver’s—only 70 homes sold for more than $4 million and 790 for between $2 million and $4 million over the same time period.

To better understand what is driving Vancouver’s luxury market, BCBusiness dove deep into a number of transactions on one westside street: Angus Drive. We looked at a random sample of 40 of the 52 homes that sold between 2012 and 2014 on the north-south street bisecting Shaughnessy and Kerrisdale, and spoke to seven realtors and a variety of real estate experts to understand what’s moving the market to unprecedented heights. What do we mean by heights? In one case, a house that sold for $2.1 million in 2009 sold again for $6.95 million in 2013. A property that went for $2.9 million in 2012—with a Tudor teardown quickly replaced by a “Tudor-inspired” mansion with double the square footage—went for $7.96 million two years later. And sales are far from cooling down. In a normal six-month period, 20 to 30 houses sell in Shaughnessy; in the first nine months of 2015, the number was 110. “The market is crazy, crazy nuts,” says Les Twarog, a realtor with Re/Max Crest Westside who has specialized in the area for the last five years.

A key concern with the rapid rise in prices is the disconnect between those prices and local incomes. The average household income in Toronto’s pricey Bridle Path and Lawrence Park neighbourhoods (the equivalent of Vancouver’s west side) is $205,000 while the median selling price is $2.87 million; in Shaughnessy, where the average selling price in the first six months of 2015 was $6.5 million, the average household income is just over $135,000. According to many of the realtors BCBusiness spoke to, it’s not local incomes buying those homes. “Vancouver doesn’t pay steep enough salaries for these sorts of properties,” says Greg Carros, a westside realtor with Engel & Völkers. “Years ago he we would see doctors, lawyers, but not at these price levels."

According to Vivian Li, a realtor ge with Sutton Realty—who sold $120 million worth of property, around 60 per w- cent of it in Shaughnessy, in the first ds nine months of 2015—it’s business owner’s ers, often with overseas interests, who le are buying in Shaughnessy. Many of those buyers tend to be immigrants, largely from Mainland China, say ce realtors—although that’s not universally 15 the case. “Newcomers don’t immediately buy a $5-million house,” says Peter Saito of Sutton Realty. The majority of ny buyers are trading up, he says: having ss lived in Vancouver for a few years, they ng or their family are now moving from ay a $2-million property to that $4-million of or $5-million one. And according to BCBusiness’s research, 30 per cent of the homes sold on Angus Drive between 2012 and 2014 were paid all in cash. Regardless of whether they’re wealthy immigrant investors or residents trading up, taking out a mortgage or paying in cash, what they all have in common, say realtors, is that they don’t shop at open houses and they rarely use MLS. The vast majority of sales are generated through referrals: friends, relatives, business partners—and immigration consultants. Indeed, several realtors credit at least half of their business to referrals from immigration consultants. Many of those consultants, based in Vancouver and Toronto, run websites and operate booths at exhibitions in Shanghai and Beijing; along with brokers from Australia, California, New Zealand and Europe, these firms market the Canadian lifestyle (clean air, good schools and a house with a yard) with links to listings. One firm—Can-Reach (Pacific) Consultants, with offices in Richmond—even offers to set up prospective immigrants with a mortgage broker, realtor, lawyer and local furniture store.

The steady stream of wealth-based migrants is a replay of the wave of Hong Kong migrants who came in the 1990s, says David Ley, a UBC professor of geography and author of the 2010 book Millionaire Migrants. “The motive of many of Vancouver’s business immigrants then was to get Canadian citizenship, which they regarded as an insurance policy against the mainland’s political interference in Hong Kong and Taiwan,” says Ley. But the level of wealth involved has gotten “a lot deeper” since the 1990s, says Ley, and the process of immigration a lot easier—streamlined by consultants with savvy marketing operations and faster document translation.

The addition of consumer-facing operations by Canadian banks in China has also helped. HSBC, historically the bank that bridges Hong Kong and Vancouver, has been joined by Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the Royal Bank and Bank of Montreal in allowing non-residents to take out mortgages, starting with a 35 per cent down payment. (Some banks even allow buyers, represented by a relative or friend in Canada, to purchase a house without ever setting foot in the country.) As well, getting between Vancouver and China has become much easier and cheaper: in 2000, there were around 10 weekly flights to China; by the summer of 2015, the number was 40.

While most of the media attention on the “foreign money” flooding into Vancouver real estate has focused on the negatives, realtors we talked to emphasize the positives—particularly the money injected into the local economy via shops, restaurants or services. These homebuyers, says realtor Saito, “are real people with real families and real needs.” Moreover, some industry observers think the very idea of the “foreign” investor is a red herring in today’s global economy.

“If you’re a landed immigrant, you’re pulling in money from somewhere else,” says Cameron Muir, economist at the B.C. Real Estate Association. “And if that’s the definition, then we’re all foreign investors. Of the money that you and I and everyone else have invested in the Canadian pension plan, 60 per cent comes from abroad. Are you suggesting we all give that up and divest?”

http://www.bcbusiness.ca/sites/defau...30.06%20AM.png
http://www.bcbusiness.ca/sites/defau...28.17%20AM.png

Quote:

Behind the numbers

Key findings from BCBusiness’s look at 40 transactions along Angus Drive

1. Transactions on Angus Drive feature a higher-than- average percentage of all-cash deals
Thirty per cent, or 12 of the 40 houses surveyed, were all-cash deals. West-side Vancouver realtors say they deal almost exclusively in all-cash transactions. across the Lower Mainland, 20 per cent of residential properties are purchased in cash, according to the B.C. Real Estate Association–albeit at much lower price points. and according to many industry observers, that percentage of cash transactions tends to decline as you move into more expensive homes–the exact opposite of what’s happened on Angus Drive.

2. Price increases on Angus Drive are without equal in Canada
Between 2011 and 2012, property values along angus north of 33rd increased 66 per cent; between 57th and 33rd, 39 per cent; and south of 57th, 33 per cent. In Toronto’s Lawrence Park, Leaside and Davisville–three neighbourhoods roughly equivalent to the Arbutus Street corridor–it took seven years, not one, to see a similar rise.

3. Buyers on Angus Drive are typically businessmen, homemakers or numbered companies.
Of the transactions analyzed, 10 owners listed on the title were identified as homemakers, 15 as businessmen and 16 were a combination of the two; two were students, two were doctors (surgeon, hematologist), one was a media agent, while one property was owned by a numbered company registered at the same address as an immigration lawyer. “the role of ‘unconventional buyers’– housewives, students and self-employed–is notable,” says UBC's David Ley.

4. Homes purchased on Angus Drive are frequently torn down, rebuilt or completely remodelled
In 30 per cent of the homes surveyed, the city of Vancouver issued a development permit within two years after the sale. in three cases, a development permit was issued within two years before the sale–a sign, says realtor Les Twarog, that the owner intended to sell. since september 2015, new City of Vancouver rules prohibit the destruction of prewar houses, which Twarog expects to have a marginal negative impact on sale prices.

Who is buying homes on Vancouver's Angus Drive? | BC Business

Great read. I love when actual research is done and proves the doubters wrong. Yet Christy Clark and Gregor will continue to say that nothing is wrong and there is no data to back up these accusations.

Quote:

realtors we talked to emphasize the positives

Do they really think that realtors aren't going to spin this into a positive when they are the ones who are the real winners in all this mess? They are raking in millions of dollars of commission fees. Pretty sure they have a bias in all of this.

yea, like all the "real families" who all live in Coal Harbor

interesting read though

Here's an interesting article about the price increase in single detached homes, townhomes, and condos in the Lower Mainland:

Mind-boggling maps show where you can (and can't) afford real estate in Metro Vancouver

Interesting stats:

Spoiler!

Vancouver has been pretty hot in the tech startup scene. Will price correct some day? I would speculate it probably will but I doubt it will be a big correction to become anything remotely cheap. If the tech industry really takes off here, prices will recover and go back to where it was, high and to the right.

Moral of the story is don't sit around blaming the Chinese for everything. Want detached housing? Better plan that now. Hope is not a strategy.

Yeah Vancouver is hot. Sometimes I wonder if its too hot. Well maybe there will be a slump and there will be some sort of correction. Perhaps the immigrants will wisen up too. Who knows?

I do feel every person must think about what they really need in terms of housing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nlkko (Post 8710501)

Vancouver has been pretty hot in the tech startup scene. .

that is an incredibly bold statement. do you have any facts to back that up?

just because there is a relatively new tech scene in Vancouver, doesn't mean it's hot, it is a global phenomenon. tech hubs are EVERYWHERE, in europe, israel, LATAM, many US cities.

Vancouver's 'hub' has more to do with short term immigration than anything, it's ok, but not standout.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4444 (Post 8710638)

Do you have facts to back that up?:drunk: