Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by Traum

Cutting the chase, do you think the Vancouver housing market (premium or otherwise) will go higher or lower?

Negatively, basically, he predicts the market to crash sometime in the not too distant future after the 2016 Q2.
His new opinion, is that people in China are taking their money out of China any means possible and that something big is going to happen.
So even if they do a fire sale and get 50% on the dollar, it is still better than losing all their money in China.

[Z3guy]

^ I read it and don't get it either....it could go either way....

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by Traum

Jason,

Would you care to elaborate on what you mean by "impact"? Without any clear indications, I cannot guess whether you mean our Vancouver market will be "impacted" positively or negatively. As a matter of fact, even the words "positive impact" and "negative impact" can have totally opposite meanings, depending on whether you are speaking from the perspective of the average Canadian home owner, or the RE agent.

Cutting the chase, do you think the Vancouver housing market (premium or otherwise) will go higher or lower?

At this time I believe the prices are being impacted in a "positive" way, in the sense that we are clearly seeing rapid price appreciation in the premium home market.

Regarding the comment you made about perspective, do you, under any circumstances, consider price of a publicly traded equity to be negative in nature?

My believe is that, subject to timing, the same factor which is currently driving our premium home prices up rapidly, will be responsible for the eventual decline in prices. As the economic situation in China becomes more severe and the Chinese Gov. simultaneously implements additional measures to curtail the movement of would be expats and their funds, the rest of the world will be pressing the panic button trading off over-valued growth instruments for fixed income instruments.

Some would say that real estate is a secure investment, while that might be true to some extent, it does not compare to US treasury bonds

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by Z3guy

^ I read it and don't get it either....it could go either way....

This is what I read.

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

Recently I've started to form the opinion that Vancouver's premium housing market is being impacted by a looming economic crisis in China. I believe that the upper business-class Chinese are aware of the current, and largely unreported, economic situation in China, and are laying the framework for a quick and painless exit.

Commodity prices and the recent volatility in the major markets suggest to me that the party is over, reality should sink in shortly, likely on/before the summer sell off/Q2 2016. Don't underestimate how hard it is to escape the burning building when the hallways are crowded with the like minded.

If anything I'm no longer thinking that interest rates will be the prime factor in reducing Vancouver home costs, it will be a global financial crisis due to a significant reduction in growth of emerging markets.

First paragraph says Vancouver's booming housing is a result of China people taking their money out of China and buying anything they can get their hands on. When shit hits the fans in China, getting 50% back in the house is better than losing 100% of it to China.

Second paragraph says markets are showing signs of a huge sell off at the end of the 2016 Q2, which will tank the markets. When there is one sell off, then there will be a second. Basically, Black monday all over again.

Third paragraph is pretty self explanitory.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by SumAznGuy

Negatively, basically, he predicts the market to crash sometime in the not too distant future after the 2016 Q2.
His new opinion, is that people in China are taking their money out of China any means possible and that something big is going to happen.
So even if they do a fire sale and get 50% on the dollar, it is still better than losing all their money in China.

Maybe I am extra dense this morning.

To me, there is no question that the Vancouver housing market, and especially the high end premium market, has been fueled by a lot of Mainland Chinese hot money. In the recent few years, there has also been no doubt to me that the Chinese economy is on the downhill. It's just that the writing is finally all over the wall now.

What has been confusing is -- given the above 2 assumptions / facts / beliefs, I cannot tell whether the RE market will go up or down. On one hand, the imminent Chinese economy downturn / crash may accelerate the money exodus from Mainland China, and in that case, our RE market should go up. The rich would want to funnel their money out as early and as quickly as possible, so in the short term, prices will climb.

On the other hand, it is also possible that the combination of economy collapse, anti-corruption probes, and money control measures act faster than the rich can relocate their financial assets. Officially, banks in China are already enacting measures to limit foreign exchange withdrawls / conversions. If they can't get their money out, there would be no new funding to continue supporting our RE market, and housing prices will drop.

I cannot tell which of these 2 situations will be the one panning out, as they both seem plausible to me.

[SumAznGuy]

First one is short term, what we are seeing now.
Second one is long term which JT is saying will happen.

Just like what he said in his first paragraph. The more desparate people are to get their money out of China, they more they will over pay for RE which will drive our prices higher.

Long run, taps are turned off and these people leave China and come to live in Canada so they sell off their extra homes for cash to spend when they live in here.
Worst is they owe money in China and need to sell off their RE's to pay back debt.

Keep in mind, the Chinese people feel the way they do because they felt it during the Cultural Revolution when rich people lost a lot of their money to the government and we all know things tend to repeat itself.

[SumAznGuy]

This 1989 documentary on Asian investment in Vancouver shows how little the debate has changed | Globalnews.ca

This article was posted 2 days ago. Play the video but close your eyes and listen to what they have to say. Replace Hong Kong chinese with foreign money.
Doesn't it sound like the videos were made last year and not 26 years ago?

Oh yeah, here's another interesting video.
Metro Vancouver the luxury car capital of North America - BC | Globalnews.ca

[EmperorIS]

Gordon Campbell looks so young in that video

[Z3guy]

Originally Posted by SumAznGuy

This 1989 documentary on Asian investment in Vancouver shows how little the debate has changed | Globalnews.ca

This article was posted 2 days ago. Play the video but close your eyes and listen to what they have to say. Replace Hong Kong chinese with foreign money.
Doesn't it sound like the videos were made last year and not 26 years ago?

Oh yeah, here's another interesting video.
Metro Vancouver the luxury car capital of North America - BC | Globalnews.ca

That young Asian guy and girl who just bought the gold aston martin rapide doesn't help the stereotype...jesus......

[Y2K_o__o]

Originally Posted by SumAznGuy

First one is short term, what we are seeing now.
Second one is long term which JT is saying will happen.

Just like what he said in his first paragraph. The more desparate people are to get their money out of China, they more they will over pay for RE which will drive our prices higher.

Long run, taps are turned off and these people leave China and come to live in Canada so they sell off their extra homes for cash to spend when they live in here.
Worst is they owe money in China and need to sell off their RE's to pay back debt.

Keep in mind, the Chinese people feel the way they do because they felt it during the Cultural Revolution when rich people lost a lot of their money to the government and we all know things tend to repeat itself.

I doubt latter would be the case. Even if they owe someone in China, they will leave the country and stay in a safer place which is Vancouver forever. This is exactly why they invest in foreign country to park their money offshore.

I think our current discussion here is too focus on Chinese buyer. Don't forget, Canadian dollar is weaker comparing against to ALL other currencies. On top of those wealthy Chinese buyers, we are also facing any investors from all around the globe.

[Mr.C]

Originally Posted by Z3guy

That young Asian guy and girl who just bought the gold aston martin rapide doesn't help the stereotype...jesus......

At least its a Rapide, though. Pretty good taste.

[jing]

Originally Posted by Y2K_o__o

I doubt latter would be the case. Even if they owe someone in China, they will leave the country and stay in a safer place which is Vancouver forever. This is exactly why they invest in foreign country to park their money offshore.

I think our current discussion here is too focus on Chinese buyer. Don't forget, Canadian dollar is weaker comparing against to ALL other currencies. On top of those wealthy Chinese buyers, we are also facing any investors from all around the globe.

According to the latest big news event going on in HK, nowhere is really safe if you piss off the CCP.

[UFO]

Curious how all those who have been singing the gains in the stock markets over the past few years have been feeling lately?

[Carl Johnson]

the long term investor honestly don't really care about short-term blips. i would worry more about people losing their livelihood in Alberta than a few percentages of the market. the daily fluctuations are driven by the day-traders i.e. gamblers.

besides when there is fear there is always buying opportunity if one is patient.

[4444]

Originally Posted by UFO

Curious how all those who have been singing the gains in the stock markets over the past few years have been feeling lately?

fucking love it!

i buy more with my monthly investment allocation.

you only buy stocks when you have a long term outlook - as you get closer to actually needing these funds you change your mix to a more conservative allocation (which can include real estate that cash flows).

for me, i won't touch a penny of this money for 17 years at least, so i'm at least 12 years away from changing my allocation.

[westopher]

Originally Posted by UFO

Curious how all those who have been singing the gains in the stock markets over the past few years have been feeling lately?

I got lucky. I put all my money in after my old condo sold. Made about 6-7k in a year that paid for my overspending while my wife was full time in school, pulled almost all out in August 2015 for our condo down payment. What I have left in there seems to hover around the same though because of what it is distributed in. When some goes down, some goes up. No stress for me though, I live off my paycheques, not my investments. It was nice to have that money have paid for us when we needed it most.

[4444]

Originally Posted by westopher

I got lucky. I put all my money in after my old condo sold. Made about 6-7k in a year that paid for my overspending while my wife was full time in school, pulled almost all out in August 2015 for our condo down payment. What I have left in there seems to hover around the same though because of what it is distributed in. When some goes down, some goes up. No stress for me though, I live off my paycheques, not my investments. It was nice to have that money have paid for us when we needed it most.

assuming you re-balance every 1/4 or 1/2 year, you will win long term

people who look at point to point returns on an index have it wrong as if you go lump sum, you go diversified equities and fixed and re-balance (sell high, buy low, by definition), if you invest regularly and like higher risk/higher reward, you can go all equities (I go MSCI developed world index, diversification in currencies, in region, in industry, 1,600+ companies) and you will, by definition by more at lower prices than you do at higher prices - you are bound to win, by definition in a flat to rising long term environment.

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by 4444

assuming you re-balance every 1/4 or 1/2 year, you will win long term

people who look at point to point returns on an index have it wrong as if you go lump sum, you go diversified equities and fixed and re-balance (sell high, buy low, by definition), if you invest regularly and like higher risk/higher reward, you can go all equities (I go MSCI developed world index, diversification in currencies, in region, in industry, 1,600+ companies) and you will, by definition by more at lower prices than you do at higher prices - you are bound to win, by definition in a flat to rising long term environment.

off topic

what you your guy's thoughts on currency hedging? I've heard hedging doesn't quite work properly. But with the CAD dollar the way it is.

Would it be better to buy a hedged ETF - especially if you are buying S&P 500 or Total US index?

[SiRV]

Hedging is:
- extremely inaccurate
- not necessary as it takes away 'currency exposure'

Imagine hedging back in the S&P when we were at par, you would have lost money and also on some MASSIVE gains. Sure, the dollar sucks now, but keep in mind one of the best rules of investing is 'do not try to time the market'. That rule is included with playing around with currencies as well (especially since the hedging technique is so imprecise with most ETFs).

[chunk_stir]

Ian Young from SCMP on Van MAg:
The Van Mag Q&A: Ian Young on racism and real estate - Vancouver Magazine

"
Now, everyone gets tied up on foreignness. Are we targeting foreigners? I think the safest and most sensible thing to do is just take that out of the equation. It is not relevant whether or not a buyer is foreign, if they’re an immigrant or any of that. What is relevant is where their money is coming from and where they’re earning their money, because that’s what drives unaffordability, by definition: the gap between local prices and local incomes. It doesn’t matter whether or not the person is foreign. What matters is whether their income is foreign."

[Carl Johnson]

people who still believe foreign money doesn't drive vancouver prices up is beyond help. my advice to people who are still renting is if you want to stay in this city, just buy within what you can afford okay.

the big crash ain't coming because you got 1.3 billion Chinese and almost the same amount of Indians wanting to move to this country. Even if 1 out 1000 Chinese wants to come to Canada that would be 1.3 million which is almost 3.5-4% of our population.

whining on internet and debating how expensive real estate in this town meanwhile maintaining an obsequious relationship with your landlord and paying off his/her mortgage every month isn't gonna solve anything. do not listen to idiot like Garth Turner who have been preaching doom for years.

save money, live frugally and become an property owner.

[Mr.C]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

people who still believe foreign money doesn't drive vancouver prices up is beyond help. my advice to people who are still renting is if you want to stay in this city, just buy within what you can afford okay.

the big crash ain't coming because you got 1.3 billion Chinese and almost the same amount of Indians wanting to move to this country. Even if 1 out 1000 Chinese wants to come to Canada that would be 1.3 million which is almost 3.5-4% of our population.

whining on internet and debating how expensive real estate in this town meanwhile maintaining an obsequious relationship with your landlord and paying off his/her mortgage every month isn't gonna solve anything. do not listen to idiot like Garth Turner who have been preaching doom for years.

save money, live frugally and become an property owner.

...or rent, and invest wisely.

[westopher]

I'm happy I purchased a home, but the whole "paying someones mortgage" argument is weak. You might pay their mortgage, but they pay your maintenance fees.
If my circumstances were a bit different, I'd never have considered buying a home and spent that down payment money on something much different and been very happy with my decision.
If I had bought a 60k+ e30 m3 like I wanted to i would have almost doubled my money in a year. I'm just satisfied I could have been in the position to do either.

[Harvey Specter]

It starts with foreign buyers who are driving up the prices. When prices are up, locals decide it's a good idea to borrow from new found equity in their properties and re-invest in RE which basically drives up prices even more. It's a vicious circle; too many people who really have no business in the RE market are heavily leveraged with RE holdings thinking their investments are safe.

Also add in the mix low interest rates and shady brokers who are getting mortgages for people who shouldn't be getting mortgages and we're basically setting ourselves up for a a major catastrophe.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

people who still believe foreign money doesn't drive vancouver prices up is beyond help. my advice to people who are still renting is if you want to stay in this city, just buy within what you can afford okay.

the big crash ain't coming because you got 1.3 billion Chinese and almost the same amount of Indians wanting to move to this country. Even if 1 out 1000 Chinese wants to come to Canada that would be 1.3 million which is almost 3.5-4% of our population.

whining on internet and debating how expensive real estate in this town meanwhile maintaining an obsequious relationship with your landlord and paying off his/her mortgage every month isn't gonna solve anything. do not listen to idiot like Garth Turner who have been preaching doom for years.

save money, live frugally and become an property owner.

such an ignorant comment to say they all want to move to Canada.

Canada is an ok place, America is too, Europe, Asia, etc. Lots of rich business men want their families somewhere safer, cleaner, and with more prestigious education, but to say 1.3B Chinese want to move (and have the ability to) is crap.

A certain portion of rich people want to, and can, move out of china. some will end up in Vancouver, others San Fran, others elsewhere.

chinese rich ppl are coming (as are indian, saudi, russian, american, european, etc.), but don't kid yourself that it's only up from here