Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[kr4l]

Originally Posted by thebrownboy

Why not just come out towards White Rock or Langleyish? Can get a great water view condo for just under a million and it's only 30ish minutes to Vancouver. Not to mention that the property taxes are cheaper and don't have to deal with crazy traffic (or too many Asian drivers).

Prices will continue to rise in Vancouver until the Government finally realizes that all of Vancouver is foreign people and that all the young people (primary workers) don't live in the city anymore thus making it harder for businesses to run since they won't have any 16 year olds to work for minimum wage.

And for everyone saying that this is just a bubble and such. Think about this, our dollar right now is complete sh*t and will stay that way for at least a couple years now so this "bubble" will be around as long as our dollar is low.

At least this is my opinion on this whole mess. Shame to see what's happened to Vancouver. Only a matter of time until this all comes tumbling back down the Government's throat.

Brah, why would I buy a million dollar condo in white rock when I can buy a million dollar condo in downtown Vancouver? Water view and all. A even better question is why would I buy a million dollar condo at all??

[4444]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

I know 4444 liked to chime in regarding "better" places to live earlier in the thread, presumably living abroad in Germany. However, was noticeably absent in the thread regarding the mass sexual assaults happening in his adopted country as a result of the mass exodus of Syrian refugees.

don't live in Germany, am disgusted by the sexual assaults, am disgusted by Merkel, am disgusted by the stupidity of the European governments with their 'let them in' mentality.

on a personal level, I see absolutely zero of the immigration crisis in europe, but that is due where I live (a recent study shows that in the UK, all asylum seekers are placed in the poorest of neighbourhoods - I assume it is somewhat similar in the rest of Europe)

don't be so quick to judge and quip about others.

and for the record, subsequent investigation has proven that none of the arrested were Syrian refugees. yes, they were mostly north african, but your statement clearly shows a lack of knowledge. it is still disgusting and shows a clear issue in the migration policies, but nonetheless, when you try to look smart and have your facts all wrong, you end up looking like an idiot.

[twdm]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Nightlife and the DTES.. great counter-arguments.

the DTES is like.. 4X4 blocks.. if that..

it's laughable that people think the DTES is the worst of anything, its fucking FOUR BLOCKS..

yea, places like LA, New York, Vegas etc. with 10-20 times the population have a wayyy better "skid row" lol.. come on.

Streets of Surrey? fuck i'll walk through Whalley 100 times out of 100 over walking through popular areas of Seattle at night. Again, "streets of surrey"

you mean that like, one road behind the church parallel to king george between 104 and 108th? lol CRAZY!

Switzerland, great place, but like i said before.. where is it "affordable" ?

Bern, which presumably has one of the higher concentrations of real-estate, $600,000 CAD can get you this:



https://www.engelvoelkers.com/ch/emm...ge=en&elang=de

Hey dawg, third time's the charm. Can you address the financial fundamentals backing the market? Yes that house may be $600k but the swiss also have an average household income of $140k canadian. Now that $600k house doesn't seem like a lot now does it?

Please use more critical thinking before making claims rather than taking everything at face value.

[MarkyMark]

Housing in this city is fucking depressing. I don't even want to live in Van but im noticing I'll soon be priced out of Langley at this rate.

[xxxrsxxx]

another good article by globe and mail
Questionable tactics encourage B.C. homebuyers to avoid taxes - The Globe and Mail

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by twdm

Well for number 1... just google best private schools in the world and nothing in Vancouver shows up for me. Graduating from Canadian Universities have no clout in the business world.

Mainland Chinese are going to top tier cities (and buying property there) in the US too, but since RS is a forum for Vancouverites and Vancouverites tend to be insular, we don't talk about what's happening in other cities.

Besides, it's relatively easy to gain PR in Canada, compared to the United States.

Number 3: If you want tax havens, go to Hong Kong where there is zero Capital gains taxes

With the recent crackdown on dissidents in HK, the rule of law and property rights are no longer guaranteed there. Besides, HK is going to revert to mainland Chinese law in 2047, so really, that's only about another 30 years of the security of an impartial court system, police, and bureaucracy (in theory).

Number 4: Switzerland beats Canada yet again.

Your average Canadian can't get Swiss citizenship, so what makes you think that someone from China can?

Sure you get free healthcare, but why do these immigrants care when they're loaded? Surely this is actually a downside because they can no longer pay to skip the queue. I am not sure where you were able to find this underground black market private healthcare in Vancouver. Please do tell me so I can report it to the proper authorities.

Oh yea, you still haven't addressed the financial fundamentals required to support such a strong market.

The Cambie Surgery Centre is one such private clinic that has successfully charged clients outside of MSP for years. It operates because it has successfully won in court against the government. There will be more of these clinics in the future, provided that the demand is there. The provincial government doesn't have the tools to fight such clinics, unless legislation (possibly at the federal and provincial levels) is introduced (which is difficult to do and unlikely to happen).

The market became detached from fundamentals years ago. Mainland Chinese are buying up Vancouver and near suburbs such as Richmond and Burnaby. Locals are cashing out their equity from their condos and other strata housing and are buying in the Tri-Cities, Surrey, Pitt Meadows, and Maple Ridge (I've seen it myself). Low-income people are renting and ranting on social media, Reddit, etc. The transnational elite with multiple passports/right of abode/residency rights have already left (like 4444).

A friend of mine who's Mainland Chinese told me about another Mainland acquaintance who recently purchased some real estate. This person lost over a million on the Chinese stock market in one day, but this person had no problem throwing a few hundred thousand, cash, on a townhouse in Burnaby Metrotown. This person wants to send her kids to school here. Even if housing in Vancouver drops 50%, it's a far better asset to invest in than the Chinese stock market, at least this is what the typical wealthy Mainland Chinese person believes. This mentality is what is driving the market.

[Tapioca]

I've also seen some random posts about politicians in this region and country being poor.

Even if there was political will to do something that would shock the market, there are lots of people who would stand to lose such as current homeowners and retiring boomers who need to tap into their equity to fund their retirements and fund down payments for their kids/relatives. Of course, this is a house of cards, but if you're a politician and are answerable to voters, what would you do?

Even if you were an aspiring politician and wanted to do something about the madness and create your own political party or run as a generational reform candidate for one of the established political parties, how would you get support? Support on social media is one thing, but political campaigns are won with money and that money comes from developers and the real estate industry in this part of the country. Despite what people may think about someone like Justin Trudeau, very few people with his charisma desire to enter politics (because with good looks and charisma, you could probably make much more money anonymously in business) and eventually succeed. So, unless you have the charisma of someone like Trudeau, you have very little chance to initiate systemic change that would cool the real estate market.

And people want to pay politicians less... because they would serve the public interest. Tell me - why would you work at a job with zero job security and zero benefits, with zero respect, when, if you had any smarts, could make far more anonymously in other industries? Politicians are already influenced by money at the salaries they receive - if we cut their salaries, what makes you think they would be more altruistic? Would you be a politician for a wage of 20/hour?

[UFO]

Originally Posted by twdm

Hey dawg, third time's the charm. Can you address the financial fundamentals backing the market? Yes that house may be $600k but the swiss also have an average household income of $140k canadian. Now that $600k house doesn't seem like a lot now does it?

Please use more critical thinking before making claims rather than taking everything at face value.

I think the point was, would you be able to move you and your family there and make 140k/yr?

There's a huge difference between thinking it's a good idea to uproot and move, wanting to do the same thing, and then actually doing it.

Like somebody previously posted, once we enter in committed relationships, begun establishing careers, even starting a family, there are so many things to consider in relocating beyond the 'it's too expensive here and really not THAT nice'.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by UFO

I think the point was, would you be able to move you and your family there and make 140k/yr?

There's a huge difference between thinking it's a good idea to uproot and move, wanting to do the same thing, and then actually doing it.

Like somebody previously posted, once we enter in committed relationships, begun establishing careers, even starting a family, there are so many things to consider in relocating beyond the 'it's too expensive here and really not THAT nice'.

Bang on. There's no guarantee that your spouse/partner is employable in another country and would make the same money. But, of course, maybe that's something to consider when picking a mate - passports, international employability, etc.

I can see moving to another city in Canada, particularly when the kids are too young to know the difference and can adjust easily. Some people are fortunate enough to have jobs that can be done from other cities, while others are in niche careers that are specific to one or two cities in the country. If you have a network here and are established in your profession, it could take years to build up the same network in another city. Or maybe some of us have other things to consider, like caring for a dying/ailing family members.

[buhdeh]

I know this is Vancouver talk but just so you guys get some perspective from out east (Toronto), schools like U of T are also infested with mainlanders. I lived in downtown Toronto for a bit and I'm pretty sure the entire condo was about 90% mainlanders. Every time I went to the gym inside my building, everyone would be speaking Mandarin and lifting weights in flip flops.

[Hondaracer]

To add one last thing to the Switzerland comment, when we were in Interlaken where was a small grocery store down the street that we grabbed food and booze from

The cashier who served us a few times couldn't have been more than 25, yet spoke seemingly fluent German, French, mandarin, AND English..

Pretty sure most of us ain't making the cut in Switzerland.

[westopher]

That's because their more intelligent tax structuring allows for people to actually get a proper education compared to the Canadian public school system.

[Z3guy]

When I was in Stockholm Sweden a few year ago, everyone was extremely well educated. Probably because post secondary education was free. Minimum wage was $25/hr. The only downside was personal tax rate was like 50%. However, it really open my eyes that in North America we value personal wealth more than anything. The Northern Europe countries seem to value education, family lifestyle (10 weeks vacation, & everyone take the month of July off) and a more socialistic approach to the country (I say that as a positive).

[nah]

Originally Posted by westopher

That's because their more intelligent tax structuring allows for people to actually get a proper education compared to the Canadian public school system.

Agreed, my kid is 4 and she can already read and write. The Canadian system caters to the lowest common denominator (kids heading into kindergarten without knowing ABCs or even English), that's why you're seeing so many parents opting for French Immersion these days (us included).

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by twdm

Hey dawg, third time's the charm. Can you address the financial fundamentals backing the market? Yes that house may be $600k but the swiss also have an average household income of $140k canadian. Now that $600k house doesn't seem like a lot now does it?

Please use more critical thinking before making claims rather than taking everything at face value.

It's great that the average household income is $140K. But someone is still working minimum wage at the local McD's or whatever the equivilent is in Switzerland.
According to google, minimum salary is $15457 francs per year, so that is $21,677 cdn per year.
Let's see a couple making minimum wage try to buy a $600K house with a combined annual income of $43,354 cdn.

[Digitalis]

Originally Posted by SumAznGuy

It's great that the average household income is $140K. But someone is still working minimum wage at the local McD's or whatever the equivilent is in Switzerland.
According to google, minimum salary is $15457 francs per year, so that is $21,677 cdn per year.
Let's see a couple making minimum wage try to buy a $600K house with a combined annual income of $43,354 cdn.

Thats the great thing about their education system you dont have to stay at min wage when your country actually makes it easier for you to climb up the education/job ladder. Disability aside I would be shocked to see anyone with grey hair working a min wage job in Switzerland.

1/2 that min wage income on a 25 yr mortage gets them alot closer than how far the average vancouver couple would have to stretch to own a house.

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by Digitalis

Thats the great thing about their education system you dont have to stay at min wage when your country actually makes it easier for you to climb up the education/job ladder. Disability aside I would be shocked to see anyone with grey hair working a min wage job in Switzerland.

1/2 that min wage income on a 25 yr mortage gets them alot closer than how far the average vancouver couple would have to stretch to own a house.

I'm not too familiar with their education system, but if it is as you described it, then who is there to work the minimum wage jobs?

So, as you say these people move up, to do that there has to be that many jobs with potentials to move up.
There needs to be a continuous stream of youth to work those minimum wage jobs when the older people move up.
Do you see the problem here?
You can't just dump more seeds, fertilizer and water into the same pot and expect to grow more plants. At some point you will need a bigger pot.

So with that in mind, I am sure there are over qualified people working those minimum wage jobs but I could be wrong since I've never been there.

[Adorkami]

Originally Posted by nah

Agreed, my kid is 4 and she can already read and write. The Canadian system caters to the lowest common denominator (kids heading into kindergarten without knowing ABCs or even English), that's why you're seeing so many parents opting for French Immersion these days (us included).

A bit off topic but are you going with French Immersion because you think the system is better or you want your daughter to learn another language? My son is turning 4 and my wife wants him to do French Immersion but i'm just not sure how good learning 3 languages(english/cantonese/french) that early in life is(i.e. will it lead to learning all of them slower as there is so much to take in)

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by Adorkami

A bit off topic but are you going with French Immersion because you think the system is better or you want your daughter to learn another language? My son is turning 4 and my wife wants him to do French Immersion but i'm just not sure how good learning 3 languages(english/cantonese/french) that early in life is(i.e. will it lead to learning all of them slower as there is so much to take in)

In my humble opinion, screw french and have her learn mandarin.
French is barely used in Canada, unless she wants a job with the federal government or she will move to Quebec.
Mandarin will soon be one the most spoken language in the world.

[kr4l]

I thought this was a real estate discussion about Vancouver. If all these other places are so great, then get outta here and go there fast before everyone else does. theres a reason why so many people want to live in canada, especially vancouver.

[Digitalis]

Kids/students/people with no work experience.
Adults should not be earning a career out of them.
Well if people arn't having kids anymore then you let immigrants come in on temp work visas. However with the amount of holidays they have I suspect they are a much more "pro family/kids" type country than we are.

Originally Posted by SumAznGuy

I'm not too familiar with their education system, but if it is as you described it, then who is there to work the minimum wage jobs?

So, as you say these people move up, to do that there has to be that many jobs with potentials to move up.
There needs to be a continuous stream of youth to work those minimum wage jobs when the older people move up.
Do you see the problem here?
You can't just dump more seeds, fertilizer and water into the same pot and expect to grow more plants. At some point you will need a bigger pot.

So with that in mind, I am sure there are over qualified people working those minimum wage jobs but I could be wrong since I've never been there.

[Harvey Specter]

Another article on our RE market...

The skyrocketing cost of houses in the burning-hot markets of Vancouver and Toronto is ratcheting up the odds of a steep correction and could lead to “payback” in the months ahead, TD Economics warns.

Figures released Tuesday by the Canadian Real Estate Association show the price of the average single-family home in Greater Vancouver jumped 25 per cent to $1.2 million this January compared to the same time last year, while the Toronto area saw a spike of 12 per cent to $683,000.

Yet as prices in those two areas continue to soar, the economics arm of TD Bank is warning that such huge year-over-year gains increase the odds of a price collapse.

“Every month of double-digit home price growth raises the risk of a deeper home price correction down the road,” economist Diana Petramala warns in a research note.

The bank notes the January surge may be partly due to a last-minute rush by buyers to buy before tougher down-payment rules took effect Monday on mortgages for homes over $500,000 — a move that will add tens of thousands of dollars to the up-front cash required for an insured mortgage.

Areas that saw the biggest jump in prices are those with average sales prices in the affected $500,000 to $1-million range, Petramala says, and Toronto and Vancouver could ease off in the short term.


“While from a medium-term perspective we do believe the new rules will have a marginal impact on the market, there still may be some payback in the coming months following the sharp gains experienced in January.”

TD issue a report last week describing the Canadian housing market as a “three speed” affair, with Toronto and Vancouver outliers compared to the declining Prairies and stable prices in the rest of Canada.

Though it cautioned the volatile real estate markets of Toronto and Vancouver will continue to get a boost from foreign investment and worker migration, they should cool down this year and next due to the tighter down-payment rules and the slow upward creep in interest rates.

But a correction in Vancouver and Toronto may still be some ways off, said RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue.

“Unless you have something that will shock the market (then) you’ll trigger a significant downturn, but at this stage we’re hard pressed to see what would be that trigger,” he said in an interview.

“Three or four months from now we’ll still be concerned about overheating in Vancouver and some segments of the Toronto market,” Hogue said.

“We’re expecting some slowing in activity but probably not in the near term — probably later this year,” he added.


Using one common rule of thumb for housing affordability — the price to income ratio — the latest Vancouver and Toronto prices could potentially add fuel to the fire of those worried about real estate becoming unattainable.

Greater Vancouver residents would have to dedicate 17 years’ worth of median pre-tax income to buy outright the average single-family home. Toronto homebuyers, meanwhile, would have to set aside nine years’ pay.

[kr4l]

^ swear to god these articles piss me off.

What these 'experts' are saying was pretty much happening a few years ago. I'm pretty sure the average home in Vancouver was $1.2mil like 3 years ago.

Of course the higher the prices soar, the odds of a crash are bound to happen are higher.

Higher down payments for houses over $500k? Laughable. You want cash or cheque?

The correction is coming! But we still can't afford shit so it doesn't matter!

[IGTBAR]

.

[Hondaracer]

Anything decent even in townhouses in Van you're looking at 800+

Willing to get into that? I wouldn't be.