Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Timpo]

Concerns the local red-hot real estate market is killing businesses

by MIKE LLOYD AND JILL DREWS
Posted Feb 24, 2016 8:26 am PST Last Updated Feb 24, 2016 at 8:43 am PST

Concerns the local red-hot real estate market is killing businesses - NEWS 1130



SUMMARY

• One local demographer feels businesses being affected is all part of the trickle down effect
  
• A real estate broker says the revved up housing market is increasing commercial real estate prices

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – We have heard a lot about the crazy state of Metro Vancouver’s housing market but it’s not just pricey homes sitting vacant in some areas, there are also plenty of empty storefronts along otherwise bustling corridors.


So, are the changes we’re seeing in some neighbourhoods having an impact on local stores and restaurants?

“I think there certainly could be [a trickle down effect] but, in terms of identifying the actual extent of vacant homes, there have been various research studies that have considered the issue in an isolated sense and we are still peeling back the layers of the onion on that one,” says Ryan Berlin, a demographer and economist with Vancouver’s Urban Futures Institute.

Commercial real estate broker Sherman Scott with Colliers International agrees.

“The difficulty we have in answering that question is that we don’t have any stats on how many homes are vacant on the West Side or in other areas. If we had those, we could probably say with more certainty.”

But Scott believes the revved up housing market is having other, more measurable, effects on businesses.

“What we are seeing is prices in the commercial real estate investment market increasing significantly. Certainly owners are trying to get a return on their investment, which would mean charging tenants more rent,” he tells NEWS1130.

“At the same time, property taxes have been increasing dramatically as prices have gone up. I was looking at some properties that saw approximately a 20 per cent increase, which gets passed on to the tenants.”

Scott says the proposed rapid transit expansion has also changed the business climate along the Broadway Corridor in Vancouver.

“We’ve seen quite a bit of speculative purchases along West Broadway in particular. People have paid some pretty high prices for commercial property and are looking for flexibility in leases with demolition clauses. The landlord wants the right to tear down the building and redevelop in the future which makes it difficult for a new tenant to come in and invest money into a property if they don’t have a long term lease.”

But back at the offices of the Urban Futures Institute, Berlin believes the open market will create a balance over time.

“To the extent that lease rates are too high for some business to stomach, creating vacancies above normal levels, the impact should be to bring those rates down,” he says.

“We may see cyclical trends in vacancies, but that should smooth out over time.”

[Hondaracer]

Fuck enough of the articles timpo. Unless it's something new and backed by some solid facts, most of the people here already know as much as these articles are saying, if not moreso.

I find so many of these province, VCB, articles etc are basically opinion peices.

[HonestTea]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Fuck enough of the articles timpo. Unless it's something new and backed by some solid facts, most of the people here already know as much as these articles are saying, if not moreso.

I find so many of these province, VCB, articles etc are basically opinion peices.

THANK YOU

[Timpo]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Fuck enough of the articles timpo. Unless it's something new and backed by some solid facts, most of the people here already know as much as these articles are saying, if not moreso.

I find so many of these province, VCB, articles etc are basically opinion peices.

oh what the heck I thought I post relevant, useful and informative articles

[westopher]

I love that the photo is of the shittiest store (sport mart) on the shittiest dump zone of businesses of Vancouver (broadway) and has been closed for like 4 years.

[hud 91gt]

I don't know what your talking about. I love rocking my Firefly snowboard bag to and from the mountain. I purchased it right there during their store closeout. Too bad my friends won't be seen around it.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

My point about Canada being a socialist country was that if a crash in the housing market were to happen, the government would step in and run deficits and/or provide assistance to ensure people remain employed and are able to remain in their homes. Canadian governments have historically run deficits with aplomb to ensure that a decent standard of living is maintained for the average Canadian.

your point is well taken, and I do agree with you that the gov would have all intentions on helping out, but governments can only do so much. when markets sink (economic, housing, and otherwise), there is always collateral damage no matter how much or little government steps in.

one can argue that when governments step in, they are just skewing things, stopping the immediate rot, but by doing so, extending the rot.

i say let things fall, it just skims off the fat and allows the strong to rebuild. but then again, i'm a staunch capitalist that thinks government intervention is always net negative, so take whatever i say with a grain of salt.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Harvey Specter

I own a few condos and a house which I rent out and I've never used a management company. The process of renting to someone is pretty straight, just follow some basic rules and use your common sense. I personally don't trust 3rd party companies to management tenants for me, I like to be hands on and know who I am renting to and all checks were done correctly.

If any of you need free help or have any questions regarding renting your places out just shoot me a PM.

couldn't agree more, for non local real estate owned, I've been forced to use property management, in the UK they're good (very good), in the US, really fucking useless.

there are two trains of thought, are you a passive investor in the real estate (use management) or active in your real estate portfolio (self manage - but you have to have the time and ability to manage it - you will get better results self managing local property).

[4444]

Originally Posted by fliptuner

If there are investments that yield the same ROI as our RE market, with the same degree of risk, I'd be all ears.

given there are no fundamentals to support Vancouver, the risk aspect is through the roof.

so, to answer your question, yes, loads of better investment opportunities today.

hindsight is 20/20, had you put all your money in shares in 2009 and just sold, you would have made a mint. had you bought Teck shares at $2 or $4 back in 2009 and sold at $5x a while back, again, mint.

you use the word risk. 1 asset. 1 location. insufficient income to support valuation. from a financial risk standpoint, your investment BLOWS.

From a speculative standpoint, you may take on loads more gains (if you sell).

[Ferra]

Originally Posted by 4444

given there are no fundamentals to support Vancouver, the risk aspect is through the roof.

so, to answer your question, yes, loads of better investment opportunities today.

hindsight is 20/20, had you put all your money in shares in 2009 and just sold, you would have made a mint. had you bought Teck shares at $2 or $4 back in 2009 and sold at $5x a while back, again, mint.

you use the word risk. 1 asset. 1 location. insufficient income to support valuation. from a financial risk standpoint, your investment BLOWS.

From a speculative standpoint, you may take on loads more gains (if you sell).

I hate your condensing and arrogant tone most of the times but gotta say I usually agree with what you said...

RE market in vancouver is risky (so is putting all your money into a single asset)...much of the pricing is supported by foreign money (immigrant, not foreign buyer) Low interest rate is a factor, but I don't think it plays that big of a row. Other parts in Canada are subjects to the same interest rate environment and you don't see housing prices thru the roof where there is a lack of immigrants. (e.g. Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Maritime Provinces...) Especially rich asian immigrants...

Tho I guess you can argue relying on these foreign money is safer than our shaky economy right now

Btw, people always said there are no fundamentals to support Vancouver's prices...But foreign money brought on by immigrant ARE part of the fundamentals. It is just unconventional and hard to measure compare to things like household income.

[GLOW]

Originally Posted by Ferra

I hate your condensing and arrogant tone most of the times but gotta say I usually agree with what you said...

you mean condescending? b/c usually his posts are long and detailed, not condensed at all

[4444]

Originally Posted by Ferra

I hate your condensing and arrogant tone most of the times but gotta say I usually agree with what you said...

RE market in vancouver is risky (so is putting all your money into a single asset)...much of the pricing is supported by foreign money (immigrant, not foreign buyer) Low interest rate is a factor, but I don't think it plays that big of a row. Other parts in Canada are subjects to the same interest rate environment and you don't see housing prices thru the roof where there is a lack of immigrants. (e.g. Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Maritime Provinces...) Especially rich asian immigrants...

Tho I guess you can argue relying on these foreign money is safer than our shaky economy right now

Btw, people always said there are no fundamentals to support Vancouver's prices...But foreign money brought on by immigrant ARE part of the fundamentals. It is just unconventional and hard to measure compare to things like household income.

the continued need for new money to prop up prices has another name, ponzi scheme - i say this on the basis that these rich immigrants aren't coming to Vancouver for work, instead they're sucking off the great education and free healthcare, paying shit all into the tax system, and then fucking off to work elsewhere - great ploy Canadian government...

i'd disagree on the point of other canadian cities having stupid house prices, all of canada went up a lot over the last decade, it's just bat shit crazier in van / TO - perhaps that's where you can see the effect of immigration (majority in van / TO, so the marginal increase could be driven by immigration / rich outsiders)

[Manic!]

Damn you mainlanders!!!!

Vancouver Island?s hinterland attracts refugees desperate to buy a family home | Financial Post

Spoiler!

By mainlanders I mean people from the GVRD. I have been preaching this for a while. Nanaimo is a great place to live.

[Hondaracer]

So I've been watching two fairly large areas in Vancouver and north Burnaby over the past 6-8 months. In the last two months I've noticed a huge spike, decent homes were selling for 1.1-1.4 in these areas, at this point comparatively shit properties are now going for the same if not more.. In 2 months

And then, this afternoon my buddy who bought in brookswood in Langley just over a year and a half ago for 700 got an offer from his realtor for a mill..from the same buyers who offered 900k 6 months ago.

Jesus Christ

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

So I've been watching two fairly large areas in Vancouver and north Burnaby over the past 6-8 months. In the last two months I've noticed a huge spike, decent homes were selling for 1.1-1.4 in these areas, at this point comparatively shit properties are now going for the same if not more.. In 2 months

And then, this afternoon my buddy who bought in brookswood in Langley just over a year and a half ago for 700 got an offer from his realtor for a mill..from the same buyers who offered 900k 6 months ago.

I was talking to the wife about this last night.
Since it is winter time, there really isn't much available for sale right now.
Since supply is down, people are forced to bid up to buy.
And since prices are going up, they are scared that they are going to be priced out and bidding up the prices higher in fear of being priced out of the market.
Once spring rolls around, there "should" be more inventory which "should" relieve some of the pressure.
Doubt there is enough to bring the prices down 50%, but hopefully less bidding wars.

My wife thinks I am wrong and that by waiting, we are going to pay more come spring time.

[Harvey Specter]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

So I've been watching two fairly large areas in Vancouver and north Burnaby over the past 6-8 months. In the last two months I've noticed a huge spike, decent homes were selling for 1.1-1.4 in these areas, at this point comparatively shit properties are now going for the same if not more.. In 2 months

And then, this afternoon my buddy who bought in brookswood in Langley just over a year and a half ago for 700 got an offer from his realtor for a mill..from the same buyers who offered 900k 6 months ago.

Jesus Christ

You should see the fire sale of older homes in Ocean Park/South Surrey atm mainly due to a influx of Asian buying up the new homes in around that area.

[Y2K_o__o]

Originally Posted by thebrownboy

People just need to wait to buy. I honestly cannot understand people who are purchasing property right now. I was about to be a first time buyer (I'm 23) but I decided to rent instead and use the money I would've used as a down payment to invest (same return that owning a house would give me).

Honestly I believe that this is all just a matter of time. When enough of Vancouver becomes foreign homes owners or uber rich CEO's and retired people, then we will see the effects and changes start to happen. (hopefully within 5-10 years). When no one is left in Vancouver to work and people decide that it isn't worth it commute an hour each way (work locally instead) then companies will have no choice but to start moving.

How many 25 year old adults can honestly afford a house/condo in Vancouver? They will be, more than likely, just fresh out of Post Secondary and/or already working a job in their field which means they'll still have student loans or won't be making much because they would still be new at their jobs. When my parents generation gets closer and closer to retirement and suddenly there's a shortage of workers in Vancouver, especially trades and technical work, then there will finally start to be some sort of Government intervention. Without it, Vancouver will be headed downhill real fast.

TLDR; it's a sellers market, not a buyers so stop trying to buy. Rent. Take the money you would use for a down payment and invest in a high yield/return bond or stock of some sort (talk to a financial advisor, you'd be surprised at the returns that are possible). Or if you must feel the need to buy, move away from Vancouver.

look at the global economy with negative interest rate, massive QE, and stock market drop while our loonie hits a 11 year low.
It makes more sense to buy Vancouver property as our land is "relatively" cheaper now.

I have no objection in renting at the moment as cost of home ownership is high, but please don't spread the idea that investment is easy money unless you're doing it as a full time job.

[Digitalis]

Just like the bodykits you used to post, they 'LOOK COOL' (to you) but have no facts or numbers to back any of it up.

Originally Posted by Timpo

oh what the heck I thought I post relevant, useful and
informative articles

[Urrtoast]

Originally Posted by SumAznGuy

I was talking to the wife about this last night.
Since it is winter time, there really isn't much available for sale right now.
Since supply is down, people are forced to bid up to buy.
And since prices are going up, they are scared that they are going to be priced out and bidding up the prices higher in fear of being priced out of the market.
Once spring rolls around, there "should" be more inventory which "should" relieve some of the pressure.
Doubt there is enough to bring the prices down 50%, but hopefully less bidding wars.

My wife thinks I am wrong and that by waiting, we are going to pay more come spring time.

You will defenitiy be paying more in a few months......

[fliptuner]

Originally Posted by SumAznGuy

I was talking to the wife about this last night.
Since it is winter time, there really isn't much available for sale right now.
Since supply is down, people are forced to bid up to buy.
And since prices are going up, they are scared that they are going to be priced out and bidding up the prices higher in fear of being priced out of the market.
Once spring rolls around, there "should" be more inventory which "should" relieve some of the pressure.
Doubt there is enough to bring the prices down 50%, but hopefully less bidding wars.

My wife thinks I am wrong and that by waiting, we are going to pay more come spring time.

I'd say it's both low inventory and momentum from the summer/fall. Once inventory increases, the comps from winter will still apply and I feel that the prices will be roughly the same or higher. The people that didn't like what was available or got outbid will still have money ready.

[punkwax]

Originally Posted by Harvey Specter

You should see the fire sale of older homes in Ocean Park/South Surrey atm mainly due to a influx of Asian buying up the new homes in around that area.

Yup. I bought my latest place 19 months ago. I don't want to seem like I'm bragging so won't mention how much profit I could make if I sold today... but it's a considerable amount of money.

Selling and sitting on cash sure is tempting, but while our dollar is weak the local RE market isn't going down.

[Mr.C]

What will the continuing fall of the Shanghai Composite do to local prices, if anything? Looks like it's gonna go all the way down to 2000 points or so (2700 now)...

[Manic!]

Originally Posted by Mr.C

What will the continuing fall of the Shanghai Composite do to local prices, if anything? Looks like it's gonna go all the way down to 2000 points or so (2700 now)...

People will pull there money and put it into safer investments like houses in Vancouver.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by Manic!

People will pull there money and put it into safer investments like houses in Vancouver.

Pull their money? China's stock market is heavily manipulated with mostly independent investors who pour real money into it (as they are not allowed to short the stock/options...etc, only institutional players can)

Very few understand the concept of "investing in stock" or something as basic as stop-loss. If anything, they see it as a big casino. So the mentality is either to continue to hold or buy in more to average out hoping to reverse the loss some time later.

If Chinese stock market continues its downward trend, I'll say selling foreign asset seems more likely albeit not logically. This is further supported by the fact that China is suffering an incredible amount of capital outflow. Should the shit hit the fans, currency control is one of the first measures that would be taken.

TBH, the China domination is coming to an end. They have way too much bubble assets (both foreign and domestic) that're only maintained by state muscle. I'm not saying China is going broke overnight, but be it crash or soft-landing... they are coming down.

The more correct and important question is, should China go soft on its purchasing power, what's to maintain GVR's RE market?

[Hondaracer]

The countries that the power shifts to?

The amount of people in China who have liquid assets that can be eventually transferred over here is probably in the 10's of millions