Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Gridlock]

Originally Posted by AWDTurboLuvr

Actually, they are once you filter it down to attached vs detached on year over year results and parse that with inventory stats. Interest rates haven't moved up, yet the correction has already begun in the GVRD, GTA and now Montreal, where I now live. I would add that I think a certain amount of people have already started to realize they can't afford their home...which is why the massive amount of inventory on the market. It was certainly more difficult to sell my condo last summer than my previous transaction 6-7 years ago.

I think once the rates go up, is when the bottom will actually fall out. Do I believe that Vancouver real estate will ever be "affordable"? I don't think so.

Across the street from me, I have 3 houses for sale, all in a pretty little row. On the other side of the street is another one that has been for sale for over a year(a shitty flip). At prices that I didn't think they'd be listed at(except the shitty flip)

People are trying to get ahead of the curve. Crash out at 20% loss to avoid 30% and a glut of houses.

And do the math...aging population for one. One house that just got listed...beautiful home, absolutely beautiful. I watched him last year maintaining his near perfection hedge. Took him 3 weeks. Up on a ladder. He's, I'd say 50's, 60's. Who the fuck wants that? It's not like its going to get easier for him. So, you can pay people for that. But then, your house isn't as accessible and blah blah blah. We all know whats driving people to downsize.

Well, to do that, you need to have a group looking to "upsize": young people.

And there isn't enough young people to go around. Between those that can't afford it, and those that don't exist due to birth rates post baby boom and those that won't take the risk on interest rates...prices are at best flat for the forseeable future.

[BurnoutBinLaden]

Just so we're clear, buying a condo as an investment is not a good idea in this economic climate, no? Strata corp might ban renting out, or the unit might have a shit load of amenities/appliances which means increased strata fees.

Even buying one to live in might not be a great idea, depending on strata fees and a similar rent price.

[AWDTurboLuvr]

I don't think buying most residential properties as an investment in the current market is great.

The own/rent ratio has been skewed towards the renters side for awhile now, especially in more desirable neighbourhoods.

[Gridlock]

Originally Posted by BurnoutBinLaden

Just so we're clear, buying a condo as an investment is not a good idea in this economic climate, no? Strata corp might ban renting out, or the unit might have a shit load of amenities/appliances which means increased strata fees.

Even buying one to live in might not be a great idea, depending on strata fees and a similar rent price.

I worked for a guy that owned a bunch of them in downtown. He sold them all off in 2008 and 2009.

Probably the single best move he made. As far as I last knew, they were stuck on one in the million+ range that they couldn't shift and were basically stuck living in it.

Run the numbers...the amount you have to put down to make the math work isn't feasible with a stagnant growth rate.

I was looking at dumps in New West that I could renovate and rent and the math STILL didn't work, and that was for unwanted shit holes using my own free labour.

[BurnoutBinLaden]

What about investing in rural BC properties, or elsewhere in Canada in the US? Although I'm not really fond of being an absentee landlord...if I rented out a property I would prefer to personally meet with the tenant, fix things that need fixing, etc

[Gridlock]

Originally Posted by BurnoutBinLaden

What about investing in rural BC properties, or elsewhere in Canada in the US? Although I'm not really fond of being an absentee landlord...if I rented out a property I would prefer to personally meet with the tenant, fix things that need fixing, etc

I don't want to divulge too much, but there is a person who does that type of thing that might send you a pm on the subject(its not me).

[BurnoutBinLaden]

Originally Posted by Gridlock

I don't want to divulge too much, but there is a person who does that type of thing that might send you a pm on the subject(its not me).

Cool. I won't look out for his PM.

[4444]

Originally Posted by BurnoutBinLaden

What about investing in rural BC properties, or elsewhere in Canada in the US? Although I'm not really fond of being an absentee landlord...if I rented out a property I would prefer to personally meet with the tenant, fix things that need fixing, etc

It's quite obvious u don't really know what ur talking about, Canada, US, condo, house - now rural BC?!

US was great 2 years ago, now, much harder to get great deals (good deals are there, but tough for a foreigner for many reasons)

Canada? Forget about it, nowhere but down from here, would be a terrible investment (if you can call it that, as you would need to expect some kind of returns, and there's no chance of that at current prices)

Forget real estate for the next 5-10 years, unless ur an American living in America

[Gridlock]

Originally Posted by 4444

Forget real estate for the next 5-10 years, unless ur an American living in America

This saddens me.

[LiquidTurbo]

Originally Posted by Gridlock

This saddens me.

I feel bad for Dinosaur.

[MoBettah]

Originally Posted by 4444

It's quite obvious u don't really know what ur talking about, Canada, US, condo, house - now rural BC?!

US was great 2 years ago, now, much harder to get great deals (good deals are there, but tough for a foreigner for many reasons)

Canada? Forget about it, nowhere but down from here, would be a terrible investment (if you can call it that, as you would need to expect some kind of returns, and there's no chance of that at current prices)

Forget real estate for the next 5-10 years, unless ur an American living in America

Why is it tough for foreigners? Cause of mortgage rules?

[4444]

Originally Posted by MoBettah

Why is it tough for foreigners? Cause of mortgage rules?

Tax complexity/withholding tax for one

Another is sometimes foreigners will have their offers put to the bottom of the pile when buying distressed properties

Getting mortgages is an obvious one too, you can't get Canadian mortgages for US properties, and you get extremely restricted mortgages in the US, if you can even get them

[4444]

Originally Posted by Gridlock

This saddens me.

It's ok, there are many different assets you should be investing in, people are way too obsessed with owning real estate.

To me, it's buy low, take the positive cf whilst you own it (hard to do locally, when considering opportunity cost of downpayment), then sell high

There are loads of great etfs that you can do the same with, and the great thing is you can buy ones with extremely low volatility that pay you whilst you own then (healthily too)

[Gridlock]

Originally Posted by 4444

It's ok, there are many different assets you should be investing in, people are way too obsessed with owning real estate.

To me, it's buy low, take the positive cf whilst you own it (hard to do locally, when considering opportunity cost of downpayment), then sell high

There are loads of great etfs that you can do the same with, and the great thing is you can buy ones with extremely low volatility that pay you whilst you own then (healthily too)

Yeah, but I work in construction doing renovations and want to truly work for myself on my own projects. Be completely and truly independent.

So for me, its not specifically returns that I'm looking for...obvious it needs to be profitable, but its not a matter of returns for the sake of returns.

As we've been effectively shut out of doing so in Vancouver, I liked the idea of Nevada or Arizona.

The only money left to be made in (Greater)Vancouver is leveling a couple shit houses and building low rise condos, and all the ones I've been watching are stalled in sales.

[VR6GTI]

I've just started looking around at houses to see if i want to sell my condo and purchase a house and it seems like every house i look into sells within 2 weeks.
Ive seen some houses sitting in the market but they are way overpriced
I read the paper and it says nobody is buying but i see the complete opposite.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Gridlock

Yeah, but I work in construction doing renovations and want to truly work for myself on my own projects. Be completely and truly independent.

So for me, its not specifically returns that I'm looking for...obvious it needs to be profitable, but its not a matter of returns for the sake of returns.

As we've been effectively shut out of doing so in Vancouver, I liked the idea of Nevada or Arizona.

The only money left to be made in (Greater)Vancouver is leveling a couple shit houses and building low rise condos, and all the ones I've been watching are stalled in sales.

Fair dues, when its your job, then I completely agree with you...

Arizona and Nevada have run up a lot, I own houses down there, gone up 40-60% in last 18 months, the metrics just don't work anymore for non residents anymore

[4444]

Originally Posted by VR6GTI

I've just started looking around at houses to see if i want to sell my condo and purchase a house and it seems like every house i look into sells within 2 weeks.
Ive seen some houses sitting in the market but they are way overpriced
I read the paper and it says nobody is buying but i see the complete opposite.

But you're looking at a specific area, maybe it's a prime area?

The statistics don't lie, overall, but all real estate is localized, so there can be anomalies within a city...

Also, never believe what you read in the paper, they go over board on the upside and downside, they need sensationalism to sell

[jing]

Originally Posted by 4444

It's ok, there are many different assets you should be investing in, people are way too obsessed with owning real estate.

To me, it's buy low, take the positive cf whilst you own it (hard to do locally, when considering opportunity cost of downpayment), then sell high

There are loads of great etfs that you can do the same with, and the great thing is you can buy ones with extremely low volatility that pay you whilst you own then (healthily too)

Any recommendations?
Posted via RS Mobile

[BurnoutBinLaden]

Mea culpa guy, I had no idea how bad the cards are stacked against the average investor w.r.t. RE.

It's just that every RE article these days is a press release from a condo developer, so I wasn't sure if it's a truly lucrative thing to do. That's why I asked. I see US real estate ads in 24 Hours all the time. Naive optimism.

All this talk about making money in real estate or bitcoin...I think I'll stick to ETFs as you said, 4444.

[4444]

OMG, you guys are like lemmings to the slaughter!!! you really would invest your hard earned cash in an ETF (or real estate) b/c some dude on the internets said so?

i won't recommend any ETFs as everyone has different risk tolerances, opinions, and also levels of intelligence (getting in is easy, getting out with more money than you started - that takes skill)

if you're all as clueless as you seem and you actually have money to invest (i say that b/c most ppl talk a big talk, but have $200 to their name), go get a fee based advisor who will, for 1% or so, invest your money, rebalance it, etc. never go for a commission based advisor, they will sell you things based on max commissions for you, fee based aligns goals

[nah]

Originally Posted by VR6GTI

I've just started looking around at houses to see if i want to sell my condo and purchase a house and it seems like every house i look into sells within 2 weeks.
Ive seen some houses sitting in the market but they are way overpriced
I read the paper and it says nobody is buying but i see the complete opposite.

You sure sound like a realtor...

[westopher]

I live in kits, and have actively been looking for a condo to buy, and places here around the 350-450k range are going fast. Its all about where you look. Other places we have looked, like near VCC, south main, fairview, false creek, not so much. It all depends on your search parameters. I don't bother to look at sales for others. Vr6gti is probably in the same boat. What he wants may be a sought after area, and can be unaffected, or at least only slightly affected by the downward trend in the overall market.

[VR6GTI]

Originally Posted by nah

You sure sound like a realtor...

You couldn't be more wrong

[4444]

Originally Posted by westopher

I live in kits, and have actively been looking for a condo to buy, and places here around the 350-450k range are going fast. Its all about where you look. Other places we have looked, like near VCC, south main, fairview, false creek, not so much. It all depends on your search parameters. I don't bother to look at sales for others. Vr6gti is probably in the same boat. What he wants may be a sought after area, and can be unaffected, or at least only slightly affected by the downward trend in the overall market.

when rates increase, those $400K condos get awfully unaffordable

there's no rush, wait out the downward part of this ride and buy at a discount compared to today's prices

yes, kits is a premium area, but $400K for a place that rents for, what, $1500? doesn't make sense, the ownership premium is NOT that great - the capital appreciation upside is basically non existent


wait, be rewarded

if you have money burning a hole in your pocket, invest it in something stable (so you can liquidate when the time is right to buy), diversified (see stable) that pays you to wait (well, you should be paid, right? i know i like to be paid for investing)

life is WAY simpler than ppl make it out to be!

[Stormspirit]

Seems to me the only way to make money in real estate or even to break even is buy a house, make as many rooms out of it as possible and rent em all out. Either you break even until your mortgage is done getting paid for by tenants or you have to chip in a little every month for the mortgage, ofc backed up by the tenants.

Even then I think its too late to do this Canada.