Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Z3guy]

^ Revscene is a car forum and I am listing my cars???? many people do that, does that mean I am bragging when I have decent cars??? sure, whatever you think.

Maybe I am different, I act the same way on a forum as I would in real life, I don't hide behind a keyboard to be a jerkoff. I would say what I say to your face or on a forum, obviously you feel more empowered acting all brash behind a keyboard.

You know what is useless? your soapbox bragging about you owning 9-10 houses! haha, my bullshit meter went off the charts! lol!!!!

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by 4444

it is a fair point, absolutely there is a large portion of the market that is driven by international money (not just vancouver).

the reason I suggest this will not last forever is that at some point the bottom of society will fall out.

If the current rates of increases continue, driven by only rich foreigners (and select locals) buying (which is the hypothesis thrown around here, as otherwise it makes no financial sense to buy), it will result in people leaving (we see this happening now in the millennial segment). If this effect gets so large, the fundamentals of what make a city good will change.

I grew up in East Vancouver and it is a much different today than 15 years ago. Even if I could afford it, as a family man, I would see no reason to raise my children in the City of Vancouver proper as it is no longer the blue-collar, diverse city I grew up in. I work downtown and I enjoy it, but in terms of family life, it doesn't speak to me.

You also have to admit that there is no way this situation is sustainable. Canada cannot keep on taking in rich foreigners, give them access to healthcare and cheap/good education when the tax base is being eroded (these foreigners are not paying income tax).

In the long-term it's probably not sustainable, but considering the socio-political system we have (any democratic society is subject to this), our decision-makers think in 4-5 year terms. Long-term thinking has eroded to an even greater extent as the 24/7 news cycle and the internet have scared politicians into doing anything bold.

But, if you're trying to keep your head above water, you swim with the tide and not against it. And this is how people vote and hold their politicians accountable.

Governmental change will come. Societal change will come. Crazy house price increases are not good for society (there are papers written about this).

I agree that crazy housing prices are not good for society, but there are too many hands in the cookie jar that is the real estate industry. I'm going to put on my Political Science hat for a moment and say that the type of politician that can fight the system and challenge the invested interests comes along once in a generation. Do we have anyone on the political horizon in this province and in our municipalities? I would say no.

[Ferra]

Originally Posted by 4444

wrong on vancouver real estate? what defines wrong - going up until it goes down? not being able to give you an exact date when people's emotions change (followed by action) - NO ONE can time anything. those that 'can' get lucky, they cannot over the long term, this is fact.

you may call me wrong as i have not been buying Vancouver real estate in the recent time, but i call myself right as i won't expose myself to this kind of risk, and have been buying many other assets that have grown in value without the risk (or with the fundamentals to support any downside risk).

It's not like i'm sitting on cash, i would argue that my risk adjusted returns are way above those of a 1 house vancouver 'investment' in the short term due to the risk side, i can absolutely guarantee you that my rent/diversified investment strategy will factually beat that of a one or two (or 5) house vancouver investment 'strategy'.

ROE wise...i doubt it lol
people are buying with 5%-25% downpayment (4x-20x leveraged)
When their house went up 20% in 1 year, their equity went up 80% to 400%
(e.g $200K downpayment on a 2mil house, house went to 2.4mil, their equity just tripled from 200K to 600K)
You can say whatever you like about your knowledge and strategy, but at the end of the day, the winner is the one who came out ahead

Looking at your posts on the first page (2012, 4 years ago), you sounded pretty certain prices were coming down(And I have a feeling your were talking about a declining house price way before 2012 as well).
Sure you didn't specified a time frame, but 4 years is a pretty fucking long time already. And you'd have to agree, if prices do come down now or in the future do you really think it would go down much more than 2012 level? (it would take a 40% crash for price to drop to 2012 level now)

And if you say prices will "eventually" come down, without giving a reasonable time frame or reference price point....You might as well not say anything because that's a pretty useless statement.

[Z3guy]

^ great feedback Ferra. Remember 4444 is down the wormhole too far and is far to arrogant to admit his "fundamental" thinking was completely off base. But I do enjoy watching him squirm and defend his flawed position. As you said, regardless what the fundamentals say, the winner is the one who risked it and came out ahead.

[Ferra]

I agree based solely on household income, affordability, cap rate, vancouver's prices are out of whack.
But I also think housing price is a lot more complex than simple quantitative statistic like average household income, interest rate and affordability, etc.
Many cities have affordability index much worse than vancouver, yet they have been like that for decades. (Property Prices Index 2016)
Qualitative attributes such as cultures and people's perception on value plays a big role in market pricing as well. (edit: I think this is the part 4444 never considered)

Btw, i think during the US financial crisis, the average housing prices only fell 30% (while the stock market fell 50%)

[unit]

^to be fair, the stock market rebounded much more aggressively than the housing market did.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Ferra

But I also think housing price is a lot more complex than simple quantitative statistic like average household income, interest rate and affordability, etc.
Many cities have affordability index much worse than vancouver, yet they have been like that for decades. ([url=http://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp]

Bingo.

- The wife/spouse/nesting instinct factor
- Stability of ownership is conducive for things like raising a family, or caring for loved ones
- Social stigma against renting in North America
- Cultural norms/disposition to owning property
- Hobbies - gardening, woodwork, welding, auto repair/restoration, home-based businesses
- Shitty experiences being a renter can be scarring... for a long time

[jasonturbo]

An interesting concept with real estate investment is the comparison to other financial instruments that rely on leverage. As an example, say you buy an 800K house with 80K down and it appreciates to 1.2M in two years, the realized gain in % is much higher than 50% as you've really only had to front 80K down and about 90K between mortgage payments, property taxes, etc. your return on 170K over 2 years would have been roughly 240% based on the amount actually invested. Any retard is now a brilliant investor - the downside? Exposure to risk is very very high and liquidity is very low... great strategy until the party stops.. but hey, maybe it never will.

I love the attacks on 4444, it's as if there is no better way to make money than buying Vancouver real estate... anyone who didn't buy was a total idiot... regardless of whether or not they made more money through other investments.

IE: I've made >1000% return on a private investment over the last 4 years while remaining fairly liquid, yet according to some of the comments in this thread, I'm a moron for not buying a house in Van.

In response I would tell everyone in this thread you are an idiot for not investing in the right tech startups, we will both own a house in a couple years, the difference is that I won't owe any money on it.

Such bias if you can't be impartial and un-emotional in this thread perhaps you need to reconsider the situation from an objective perspective... you never know what you might come away with from it.

If I could turn back time would I have bought a house when I moved to Nvan in 2007? Yes I would have, 100%. Would I buy a house today at these prices? Yes, but I wouldn't if I had to be savagely leveraged, and I say that because it would be my home and a 50% drop in value wouldn't matter to me because it is my home, not an investment... I don't plan on flipping my home, I plan to live there.

[kr4l]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

An interesting concept with real estate investment is the comparison to other financial instruments that rely on leverage. As an example, say you buy an 800K house with 80K down and it appreciates to 1.2M in two years, the realized gain in % is much higher than 50% as you've really only had to front 80K down and about 90K between mortgage payments, property taxes, etc. your return on 170K over 2 years would have been roughly 240% based on the amount actually invested. Any retard is now a brilliant investor - the downside? Exposure to risk is very very high and liquidity is very low... great strategy until the party stops.. but hey, maybe it never will.

I love the attacks on 4444, it's as if there is no better way to make money than buying Vancouver real estate... anyone who didn't buy was a total idiot... regardless of whether or not they made more money through other investments.

IE: I've made >1000% return on a private investment over the last 4 years while remaining fairly liquid, yet according to some of the comments in this thread, I'm a moron for not buying a house in Van.

In response I would tell everyone in this thread you are an idiot for not investing in the right tech startups, we will both own a house in a couple years, the difference is that I won't owe any money on it.

Such bias if you can't be impartial and un-emotional in this thread perhaps you need to reconsider the situation from an objective perspective... you never know what you might come away with from it.

If I could turn back time would I have bought a house when I moved to Nvan in 2007? Yes I would have, 100%. Would I buy a house today at these prices? Yes, but I wouldn't if I had to be savagely leveraged, and I say that because it would be my home and a 50% drop in value wouldn't matter to me because it is my home, not an investment... I don't plan on flipping my home, I plan to live there.

People are not attacking him lie cause he's wrong. It's the way he says things. I agree with most if not all his posts 100%. But to think you're doing it right while everyone else is doing it wrong is just being stubborn.

And also to think the market will ever drop 50% is ridiculous. 50%!!

Also, you guys are discussing a lot about people buying properties as investments and if the housing market ever crashes, they'll be doomed. I don't know where you guys live to not see this, but these foreigners buying up all these properties don't give two shits if it drops. These guys hold millions upon millions of dollars. It'll only put on small dent on there networth.

@jason you've made great returns on your investments and that is great for you but a lot of people either don't have the knowledge or capital to ever make the gains that you did.

Let me ask you this? Can you make a million dollars in a day doing investments? Probably not, unless you're a wall street guy but it seems a lot of these guys are doing it by flipping houses.

More risk but more reward. Money can be made anywhere. It's just do you have the balls to do it is all

[Z3guy]

No one is making huge returns as claimed on Revscene real estate thread. If we all were, we all would be buying brand new GT3RS Porsches! haha

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by kr4l

Also, you guys are discussing a lot about people buying properties as investments and if the housing market ever crashes, they'll be doomed. I don't know where you guys live to not see this, but these foreigners buying up all these properties don't give two shits if it drops. These guys hold millions upon millions of dollars. It'll only put on small dent on there networth.

While I realize that this has been beaten to death already, there are still no stats to support that the majority of home buying in Van is foreigners.

Previously, CMHC has tried to glean the scope of foreign investment with a survey of property managers that found less than 6 per cent of condos were bought by people who reside outside the country.

CMHC revs up hunt for flows of foreign money into Canada?s torrid housing market | Financial Post

There is however data to suggest Canadians are drowning in debt

Statistics Canada said Friday that total household credit market debt, which includes consumer credit and mortgage and non-mortgage loans, increased 1.2 per cent to $1.923 trillion at the end of last year.

The total included $573.6 billion in consumer credit debt and $1.262 trillion in mortgage debt.

Fuelled by mortgage growth, Canadian household debt rises to new record high - National | Globalnews.ca

If it's all Chinese people buying property... where are the Canadians spending this money? I'm all ears...

[jasonturbo]

Originally Posted by Z3guy

No one is making huge returns as claimed on Revscene real estate thread. If we all were, we all would be buying brand new GT3RS Porsches! haha

http://www.revscene.net/forums/70681...-problems.html

If only it was that simple.

[Digitalis]

Oh that'll never happen
Chinese exports have seen their sharpest drop in almost seven years, adding to concerns over the health of the world's second largest economy.

Exports dropped sharply by 25.4% from a year earlier, while imports fell 13.8%.

The weak data comes on the heels of Beijing registering the slowest economic growth in 25 years.

China's National People's Congress, currently underway in the capital, has just revised the 2016 growth target down, predicting a "battle for growth".

The February trade figures are likely to raise new fears over China struggling to maintain economic growth while implementing reforms and trying to shift towards more services and domestic spending.

Customs figures showed exports fell to $126.1bn (£88.5bn) last month. That was down 25.4% from a year earlier and worse than an expected fall of about 15%.
Image copyright AFP
Image caption China's exports are seen as indicator of the broader economic situation

The poor trade data marks the worst performance since the height of the global financial crisis in May 2009.

However, analysts cautioned that the data might have been affected by the longer-than-usual Chinese Lunar New Year holidays.

With China often referred to as "the engine of global growth", the weaker global demand for its goods is read as an indicator of the general global economic climate.
Analysis: Karishma Vaswani, Asia Business Correspondent

China has often been called the factory of the world, but that narrative may now be changing.

As global demand slows down, China is selling less to the world, but it is also buying less from the world.

True - Tuesday's trade figures may have been affected by a longer than usual Chinese New Year period last month, which meant workers were on holiday and factory owners may have brought orders forward or delayed them.

But these February numbers will continue to put pressure on China's leaders as they grapple with the worst growth rates in 25 years on the mainland.

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

Yeah you're right, 30% contraction in GDP YOY is only like.. you know.. the great depression.

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by Z3guy

No one is making huge returns as claimed on Revscene real estate thread. If we all were, we all would be buying brand new GT3RS Porsches! haha

Huge in this sense is a relative term.

The company I work for just purchased a plot of land at a great price and will be building 50+ townhomes on it. This is on top of the few other properties we are currently developing. My boss/wife are taking on all the risk and making, to me, "huge" gains financially. However they aren't going out and buying GT3's

I'd say making 200k on a house you bought 1-3 years ago is pretty "huge" mind you that is if you were to sell.

The one thing I'll add to the notion of "what goes up must come down" or this theory that rising prices always fall is that, within the last 20+ years, what has gotten cheaper for you?

Cost of living?
Food?
Vehicles?
Gas?
Commodities?

Has anything, let alone real estate actually become less expensive overtime? Lol

[unit]

cauliflower was $10 now its 0.99c/lb
checkmate aehtietss

but srs, prices do fluctuate for a lot of things. especially when they shoot up fast, they do often go back down. it's true for a lot of your examples

[nah]

For what it's worth, I'm more conscious to not buy made in China products. Really trying to support either made locally products or generally paying a little more for a better product from elsewhere.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

While I realize that this has been beaten to death already, there are still no stats to support that the majority of home buying in Van is foreigners.

If it's all Chinese people buying property... where are the Canadians spending this money? I'm all ears...

Jason - the government does not currently collect data on the nationality of purchasers. We can only rely on anecdotes.

There are ways to smuggle money out of China, even given the recent crackdown on currency flight. There was a huge line of Chinese people waiting to see an open house in my building this past weekend. I do not doubt that these people have smuggled money out of the country using family members, shell companies, etc.

I will also say that based on my recent experience of being in the market, going to open houses, foreign money has a lot to do with what's happening. I know you've been focused on North Van, but who lives there? Persians and white people. Where do the Chinese live or want to live? Vancouver, Richmond, Burnaby, and Coquitlam. They live where there is rapid transit and where there are Chinese amenities, such as a T&T or Shanghai style noodle houses. Where are the others going who are priced out of these cities? Langley, Maple Ridge, and Abbotsford.

Take my anecdotes as what they are - just a handful of examples. However, I bet others who are on the ground, going to open houses, working with realtors, etc. are willing to support what I've seen.

[GabAlmighty]

Bought a condo in the summer, sold it last month, did pretty well on paper but after realtor fees I didn't keep as much. Which is fine as all I cared about was breaking even and selling the condo in a week; which I did.

Now i'm in lovely Yellowknife and buying another condo because rent here is FUCKED ($900 for a ROOM). One bedroom shitty condos for $1600. It's like the oil patch, but there's no oil...

Not that any of this has the least bit to do with what you folks are going on about currently, I just wanted to say something about real estate, in the real estate thread.

[Mr.Money]

900 for a place in yellowknife?....what in the entire fuck...Are they getting rich off the Mining sector there?

[Manic!]

Originally Posted by Mr.Money

900 for a place in yellowknife?....what in the entire fuck...Are they getting rich off the Mining sector there?

Everything including building material has to be brought in. In some places up north it costs over $20 for a case of Nestle bottled water. Something you can get for less than 4 bux at Walmart.

[hud 91gt]

Originally Posted by GabAlmighty

Bought a condo in the summer, sold it last month, did pretty well on paper but after realtor fees I didn't keep as much. Which is fine as all I cared about was breaking even and selling the condo in a week; which I did.

Now i'm in lovely Yellowknife and buying another condo because rent here is FUCKED ($900 for a ROOM). One bedroom shitty condos for $1600. It's like the oil patch, but there's no oil...

Not that any of this has the least bit to do with what you folks are going on about currently, I just wanted to say something about real estate, in the real estate thread.

Time to buy a nice 350k double wide

[kr4l]

Originally Posted by jasonturbo

While I realize that this has been beaten to death already, there are still no stats to support that the majority of home buying in Van is foreigners.



CMHC revs up hunt for flows of foreign money into Canada?s torrid housing market | Financial Post

There is however data to suggest Canadians are drowning in debt



Fuelled by mortgage growth, Canadian household debt rises to new record high - National | Globalnews.ca

If it's all Chinese people buying property... where are the Canadians spending this money? I'm all ears...

Although I cannot provide any proof or data for you, I can provide 1 example.

If you come to Vancouver and surrounding area and go check out a open house, I guarantee you 10000% that most if not all the interested buyers are of Asian decent.

Go check out the new condos that are going up everywhere during there pre sale. I will bet money on it that 99% will be Asian decent.

Foreign money is here to stay. This world is about money. The government and politicians aren't doing anything about this foreign money because if they did, a lot of people's pockets will be effected, like there own. They don't give a shit about the average joe trying to raise a family and work 80 hours a week.

I'm not siding with foreign ownership. They should have to pay more tax etc etc if they want to own a home and have a life here. But being a business owner myself, you gotta understand I am all for them coming here. You know why? Because they have lots and lots of money and are willing to spend it. I can't say the same about some people that live here and can't afford to put $5.00 on there credit card because they are maxed out. (This has happened way to many times)

But back to realestate. The correction will come. Housing will drop. But if you think it'll be affordable, good luck.

[Z3guy]

The way I look at it, regardless how much the value my primary residence goes up or down in value, it is just a house I live in. I want to live in my general hood for the next 30yrs+, so all I have is a house in the area I like. You only capitalize if you sell your house and move to the far away burbs or somewhere else less expensive. Something I am not preparred to do. I would be totally happy if the market corrected because as much as my house goes down in % value, more expensive homes will go down similar %value. The people who stretched themselves buying multiple rental properties and took huge financial risks are the ones smiling ear to ear if they sold their investment properties recently.

[adambomb]

Originally Posted by kr4l

But back to realestate. The correction will come. Housing will drop. But if you think it'll be affordable, good luck.

You must be new here.

People have been predicting housing to drop since the beginning of this thread. As someone has mentioned earlier. 4 years of this real estate thread is a long fucking time without a hint of a decline. Go back and read it all. it starts in 2012.

Also as someone mentioned earlier, saying housing will come down without a time frame is a useless statement. Everyone here understands that, so again. You must be new to this thread.

But you seem all hung up on Asians being at open houses, any Asians at an open house in Vancouver in your eyes must be a foreign person with foreign capital. I guess you also feel the large amount of Asians-Canadians that have grown up in the Metro Vancouver in the past 50 years must have all disappeared somewhere. Even though Asian-Canadians struggle just as much as any other Canadian trying to purchase a home in Metro Vancouver, you lump "us" with "they" and somehow think slant eyes and yellow skin equals fists full of cash.

[kr4l]

Originally Posted by adambomb

You must be new here.

People have been predicting housing to drop since the beginning of this thread. As someone has mentioned earlier. 4 years of this real estate thread is a long fucking time without a hint of a decline. Go back and read it all. it starts in 2012.

Also as someone mentioned earlier, saying housing will come down without a time frame is a useless statement. Everyone here understands that, so again. You must be new to this thread.

But you seem all hung up on Asians being at open houses, any Asians at an open house in Vancouver in your eyes must be a foreign person with foreign capital. I guess you also feel the large amount of Asians-Canadians that have grown up in the Metro Vancouver in the past 50 years must have all disappeared somewhere. Even though Asian-Canadians struggle just as much as any other Canadian trying to purchase a home in Metro Vancouver, you lump "us" with "they" and somehow think slant eyes and yellow skin equals fists full of cash.

Hi

I am kinda new here. I'm also Chinese so I understand the difference between Cantonese and mandarin. I also understand the difference between Mandarin and 'mainland mandarin'.

I also own a business that deals with a lot of foreign Chinese, cbc etc so you can say I have an 'slant eye'for who's who.

Also your first 2 paragraphs don't make sense. Do you want me to tell you when the housing market is going to drop? Cause I have no idea. I do know that I'm paying a mortgage for a house that I live in plus I have some investment properties. If I knew when shit will hit the fan, I wouldn't tell you anyways.

I'm also not saying housing price will drop. That's a given. The problem I'm saying is that even if it drops 50%, it will still be unaffordable is all so if it drops or not doesn't even matter to me. All I know is I have a roof over my head.

Ps: I'm also no expert in real estate so please don't take whatever I say serious. I'm just stating my opinion. It could be wrong, it could be right.