Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[4444]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

Just because we have a differences of opinion you shouldn't take it too personal.

a tad ironic, coming from you

[jing]

Thoughts on the "Macpherson Walk" development? I had a look at a unit on Irmin St. today and interior finishing seemed pretty standard, with nothing to write home about. A friend's family owns a couple units in one of the buildings and says that noise complaints are a constant issue due to poor sound insulation between floors. That's for the "North" building though, so I'm wondering whether all the buildings in the community are affected.

[flagella]

I think this thread just needs to stick to factual updates on local housing and people can offer some practical advice to others. No more messed up debates on investing strategies, particularly involving Carl guy. I couldn't help but to chime in because the guy speaks as if he understands anything about investing when in fact you can tell he really doesn't. This doesn't mean you can't be successful making money from real estate. There are tons of people who made some solid coins just riding the bullish cycle. Just don't offer any investing advice to anyone because investing in one class of asset focused on one sector can quickly destroy one's equity when timed wrong, and no one can time it right consistently.

[Mr.C]

The naiveté of people here continues to astound me.

It's *obvious* that these deals that look really weird are made with dirty money. It's obvious that the market is irrational and fueled by international speculation. Our local economy is weak as shit. Locals don't make enough to afford million dollar homes.

It's plain as day to anyone who grew up in a third world country that dirty money is driving the market.

And before anyone comes along and gives me some bullshit spiel about how not *all* money is dirty, by all I mean 90% of it. We all know that the way to be successful in Brazil or China or Russia or whatever is a way that would orobably land you in jail here.

[IGTBAR]

.

[CorneringArtist]

Originally Posted by Mr.C

The naiveté of people here continues to astound me.

It's *obvious* that these deals that look really weird are made with dirty money. It's obvious that the market is irrational and fueled by international speculation. Our local economy is weak as shit. Locals don't make enough to afford million dollar homes.

It's plain as day to anyone who grew up in a third world country that dirty money is driving the market.

And before anyone comes along and gives me some bullshit spiel about how not *all* money is dirty, by all I mean 90% of it. We all know that the way to be successful in Brazil or China or Russia or whatever is a way that would orobably land you in jail here.

And if you say anything, you're labeled a bigot or racist despite knowing where the primary source of that dirty money is coming from, in the name "multiculturalism". I don't know it's trying too hard to be PC, or Canadian hospitality, but one of the two is allowing the bending over backwards of regulations.

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by Mr.C

The naiveté of people here continues to astound me.

It's *obvious* that these deals that look really weird are made with dirty money. It's obvious that the market is irrational and fueled by international speculation. Our local economy is weak as shit. Locals don't make enough to afford million dollar homes.

It's plain as day to anyone who grew up in a third world country that dirty money is driving the market.

And before anyone comes along and gives me some bullshit spiel about how not *all* money is dirty, by all I mean 90% of it. We all know that the way to be successful in Brazil or China or Russia or whatever is a way that would orobably land you in jail here.

yea, we heard ya the first time.

[twitchyzero]

Originally Posted by buhdeh

Don't forget all the brand new office towers sprouting up with no tenants.

https://www.biv.com/article/2016/3/w...office-market/
https://www.pwc.com/ca/en/real-estat...te-2016-en.pdf

isn't this a common problem in many cities for new office towers?

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Mr.C

The naiveté of people here continues to astound me.

It's *obvious* that these deals that look really weird are made with dirty money. It's obvious that the market is irrational and fueled by international speculation. Our local economy is weak as shit. Locals don't make enough to afford million dollar homes.

It's plain as day to anyone who grew up in a third world country that dirty money is driving the market.

And before anyone comes along and gives me some bullshit spiel about how not *all* money is dirty, by all I mean 90% of it. We all know that the way to be successful in Brazil or China or Russia or whatever is a way that would orobably land you in jail here.

I don't think anyone here is naive honestly.

But, given the amount of dirty money in the market, what can you do about it? You either get in or you don't. People have outlined their reasons for getting in/or staying in the market and others have outlined their reasons for staying out.

What's clear is that people have their reasons for the decisions they've made. I agree with flagella and others - no point in trying to change reasons now. I think practical advice is what this thread should be about now.

[jing]

On the topic of irrational decisions, a 1br in the Joyce area sold for 329k just this weekend. A near identical unit in the same building sold for only 270k in February. The average price last year of 600ish sq ft units in the building was roughly $240k, or $360/sqft. Why someone would pay $329k for a 20yo 1br in a building with rental restrictions that would probably need rainscreening in the future is completely beyond me, but it is what it is. The unit was in good condition, but unless you're 50+, you're probably going to want to update it a bit.

403 3628 RAE AVENUE , Vancouver, BC V5R 2P5 MLS®-R2057174 for Sale

[Mr.C]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

yea, we heard ya the first time.

...but the thread is too entertaining to stop reading

~

MacPherson Walk is interesting. A friend of mine lives in one of the 'older' buildings, it's ok. Weird thing is that a queen bed does not fit properly in the bedroom of the one bedroom suites. He had to switch the door to a sliding door so he could close it.

[Mr.C]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

I don't think anyone here is naive honestly.

But, given the amount of dirty money in the market, what can you do about it? You either get in or you don't. People have outlined their reasons for getting in/or staying in the market and others have outlined their reasons for staying out.

What's clear is that people have their reasons for the decisions they've made. I agree with flagella and others - no point in trying to change reasons now. I think practical advice is what this thread should be about now.

Not talking about the people getting stuck between a rock and a hard place. I'm talking about pathetic and weak governments.

[Harvey Specter]

...

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – As the Chinese government tries harder to keep money from leaving its borders, could our housing market be affected?

There’s nothing certain about the way things are going, but with Beijing carrying out wide ranging anti-corruption sweeps as it promises not to devalue the currency, this is a situation worth watching, says Tom Davidoff with UBC’s Sauder School of Business.

“The Yuan got much stronger relative to the Canadian loonie between 2013-2015,” says Davidoff.

“You went from about seven Yuan to a loonie, down to about 4.6, which is a very large percentage change between 2013 and 2015, beginning of 2016. But we’re back to 5.14 now, from about 4.5 which means the Yuan has lost about 10-15 per cent in the last couple of months relative to where it was against the loonie, which means Chinese money buys less Canadian money than it used to, which means it buys less Canadian real estate.”

“So if that trend continues, and if the weakness in oil and the loonie was temporary, it will be interesting to see if that leads to a weakening of prices in Vancouver.”

If it turns out Chinese money is a big factor in our market as some believe and the Yuan drops, Davidoff says there very well could be consequences for our market.

“If we think an important source of demand is the money leaving China, [multiplied by] the exchange rate from Chinese to Canadian money, if we see a fall in the Yuan and nothing happens to capital outflows, it’s a fall relative to the loonie, then yeah, we would expect to see a drop in prices to the extent that people are right that China is a very important source of demand,” says Davidoff.

“Things can go awry with that calculation because more and more money could be flowing out of China, although they’ve tried to stem the flow of capital flows out. but if the flows stay the same, and those flows buy fewer loonies, then we ought to see a price drop.”

[4444]

Originally Posted by flagella

I think this thread just needs to stick to factual updates on local housing and people can offer some practical advice to others. No more messed up debates on investing strategies, particularly involving Carl guy. I couldn't help but to chime in because the guy speaks as if he understands anything about investing when in fact you can tell he really doesn't. This doesn't mean you can't be successful making money from real estate. There are tons of people who made some solid coins just riding the bullish cycle. Just don't offer any investing advice to anyone because investing in one class of asset focused on one sector can quickly destroy one's equity when timed wrong, and no one can time it right consistently.

anyone can look like an investing genius when everything's going up (even idiots make money in a bull market).

as with all things, buffett has pearls of wisdom - "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."

[Hondaracer]

In regards to that article on the Chinese crackdown, I'll harp back to the same old thing I've been saying previously, is someone that can afford a 5+ million dollar home concerned with a 5/10/15% correction in their currency? In home prices? In taxes? I'd wager probably not. Especially when it's not even about getting any sort of "value" in their purchase.

I have a good friend who sold most of their RE holdings and is now renting in kerrisdale from a Chinese owner who lives in China, she visits a few times a year and has a good relationship with my friend. Friend was interested in perhaps buying the home they are renting and had a sit down with her last time she came by. She kind of laughed at the idea of selling and said she had absolutely no intentions of selling the home, infact she was looking to get into more properties in the area. She said in China the comparables areas far worse than Kerrisdale etc are still double the price of the kerrisdale home.

When you hear it from the horses mouth, it's hard to imagine a slowdown without restrictions heavily enforced.

What's the number that can influence the Vancouver housing market? An influx of 10,000 foreigners per year buying into Vancouver RE? That's fucking peanuts, yet I bet it's enough to influence the market.

Want to know how a vancouverite can afford a house in Vancouver? Own it prior to 2004.

There are enough people out there holding homes with no intention to sell who couldn't otherwise afford the home that supply will always be limited enough to drive the market imo.

Multi-family, and outlieing areas of the lower mainland are a different story though.

As much as Carl Johnson gettin on ppl'a nerves, personally I agree wholeheartedly regarding his stance on Van and being amongst if not the best place in the world to live.

Don't really give a shit what some chick who can't afford a 200k condo and went on a contiki tour to Greece in 05 thinks about "better places to be"

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Mr.C

Not talking about the people getting stuck between a rock and a hard place. I'm talking about pathetic and weak governments.

Are our governments really "weak and pathetic"?

I talked about the policy levers that our governments have a few pages back. It's a far too complex problem for any one level of government to solve, unless they are willing to risk serious political capital. After all, unlike Brazil or Russia, we have multiple levels of government that all have their own interests and own constituencies. The only way someone challenges the status quo is if there are hundreds of thousands leaving BC and Canada or there's rioting in the streets.

Are people going to riot in the streets over housing prices? Look at what happened to the Occupy movement.

[westopher]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Look at what happened to the Occupy movement.

KONY 2012 Nvr 4get.

People tend to talk about chinese investment like its the only factor. You see a line up of 1000 people to get some shoebox condo, and 600 of them are chinese, it doesn't mean they are all investors. We happen to have a shitload of people with chinese heritage who are canadians now, that are looking for their first (horribly overpriced) homes just like everyone else. Cheap money is a huge factor. Investment (not nearly all foreign) is a huge factor. Fear of being left behind I would believe is the biggest factor. You've got people who actually believe that it will never go back down, when time and time again, people think that about every aspect of the stock market and get proven wrong, with often dire consequences.

On another note. The identical unit in the new phase of my condo building is 16% more than I paid for mine. The new unit also has a shittier view/placement. That was in 8 months.

[Hondaracer]

I heard a stat on the news that mainland Chinese made up approx 27% of the population of the GVA in 2015, up from 14% in 1993

But if dey Chinese in line for dem condos, you know dey foreign investors

[m4k4v4li]

China has the second most billionaires in the world

This is a slippery slope... does the means by which you transfer your earnings out of the country (illegally) de-legitimize the means by which you have earned it?

[twitchyzero]

I never understood 'the most _illionaires in the world' metric...they also have the largest population

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by jing

Thoughts on the "Macpherson Walk" development? I had a look at a unit on Irmin St. today and interior finishing seemed pretty standard, with nothing to write home about. A friend's family owns a couple units in one of the buildings and says that noise complaints are a constant issue due to poor sound insulation between floors. That's for the "North" building though, so I'm wondering whether all the buildings in the community are affected.

A friend of mine lived in this complex for several years. He didn't have any specific complaints about noise, but he did notice more minor annoyances like increasing amounts of garbage and dog excrement in common areas as more of a certain group of people moved in. I would imagine this is an issue in a lot of complexes in the Metrotown area, if you catch my drift.

I wouldn't be too concerned about finishing, particularly if it's not new. You're going to have to re-caulk, re-paint, etc. You can always change the cabinets and flooring, but you can't change the location nor the building itself.

It's a wood frame complex, so you are going to get more noise than a concrete building. However, having lived in a concrete building for 8 years, modern concrete buildings are not what they used to be in terms of sound insulation.

I think you're better off sticking to Edmonds-Highgate if you want something that is still affordable. Have you tried older condos in Burnaby Heights? The Heights is a great location and still pretty diverse.

[m4k4v4li]

Originally Posted by twitchyzero

I never understood 'the most _illionaires in the world' metric...they also have the largest population

what part do you not understand?

economy of scale with a large # of people wanting to leverage their purchasing power parity at best...

4 out of the highest 10 on the housing affordability index are cities in China

[Nlkko]

Would never live in a wood frame building. Not interested in listening to the neighbor TV and their kids screaming. And the worst is when they throw a party. Fuck that. Living with that shit does damage to your mental health.

Concrete all the way for me. Make it hard and thick.

[yameen]

starting to look around for a new condo. first time buyer with very little knowledge of anything. been frequenting this thread but there's just too many pages of info. i'm signing up for these newsletters and updates from sites that i see from polygon, magusta, etc. i'm looking for ~$300-400k condo. is it more reasonable to buy a new 1 bedroom condo or an old 2 bedroom condo?

i was looking at prices in burquitlam and they are almsot the same as vancouver. wtf?
how do these prices look?
A plan – 446sf - #206 $197,900*
B2 plan – 578sf - #207 $279,900* & #407 $299,900*
B1 plan – 575sf - #405 $299,900*

[dat_steve]

Originally Posted by yameen

i was looking at prices in burquitlam and they are almsot the same as vancouver. wtf?
how do these prices look?
A plan – 446sf - #206 $197,900*
B2 plan – 578sf - #207 $279,900* & #407 $299,900*
B1 plan – 575sf - #405 $299,900*

at $450-500/sqft, those are nowhere near being the "same" as Vancouver prices buddy lol

by that i mean if you double that $/sqft, then you'll be the Vancouver range