Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[stylez2k4]

Originally Posted by quasi

The thing with construction is you bid projects based on the current market, sometimes it's 2 years before your on site depending on what your responsible for. A lot can change in 2 years, material and labour can cost you way more then anticipated.

I was referring to construction of detached housing which don't have the same lag time.

I estimate commercial construction projects for a living, we've had a material increase every 6 months for the last year and a half 8-10% each time on all my materials. Labour is asking for more money now then they were 2 years ago by almost 25%. From my recollection 4 years ago we went over a year without an increase, it's a guessing game.

Historical prices don't really mean anything in the short term, you can only look at the fluctuation in costs from when a project was bid to when it's complete.

Except currently prices of commodities are not historical highs or even near historical highs. Cost of forestry products are lower now (data from 2015) than in early 2000s and mid-late 1990s.

The year over year fluctuations for forestry products are

-3%, -5%, -6%, -2%, -19%, 26%, 3%, 2%, 10%, 2%, -13% from 2005-2015.

Yet I don't think construction cost has decreased anything during that span.


Also want to add the price index of apartment building construction that Statistic Canada publishes:

2007 Q1 131.2
2007 Q2 135.4
2007 Q3 137.3
2007 Q4 138.4
2008 Q1 141.5
2008 Q2 146.9
2008 Q3 148.8
2008 Q4 145.0
2009 Q1 138.2
2009 Q2 136.8
2009 Q3 134.8
2009 Q4 134.6
2010 Q1 134.3
2010 Q2 136.0
2010 Q3 136.2
2010 Q4 136.8
2011 Q1 138.5
2011 Q2 140.0
2011 Q3 141.4
2011 Q4 141.9
2012 Q1 143.1
2012 Q2 143.9
2012 Q3 144.1
2012 Q4 144.6
2013 Q1 144.5
2013 Q2 145.7
2013 Q3 146.0
2013 Q4 146.0
2014 Q1 146.7
2014 Q2 147.5
2014 Q3 147.9
2014 Q4 148.1
2015 Q1 148.9
2015 Q2 149.6
2015 Q3 149.4
2015 Q4 149.6
2016 Q1 149.7

I don't see the a huge price increase

[IGTBAR]

.

[Hondaracer]

Those RBC indexes on construction material costs mean nothing. No one is buying their materials from RBC.

Lumber suppliers act much like gas stations, their prices are immediately effected by a change in pricing, USD fluctuation, etc regardless of their stock.

We've seen hundreds of dollars fluctuation in lifts of lumber from one day to the next. This usually results in us changing suppliers on the fly just to save that few hundred dollars, that's how tight it is.

[stylez2k4]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Those RBC indexes on construction material costs mean nothing. No one is buying their materials from RBC.

The index is not calculated based off people buying materials from RBC.

Lumber suppliers act much like gas stations, their prices are immediately effected by a change in pricing, USD fluctuation, etc regardless of their stock.

We've seen hundreds of dollars fluctuation in lifts of lumber from one day to the next. This usually results in us changing suppliers on the fly just to save that few hundred dollars, that's how tight it is.

Are you also denying the Stats Canada data on the price index of apartment building construction mostly unchanged since late 2000's?

[quasi]

Originally Posted by stylez2k4

The index is not calculated based off people buying materials from RBC.



Are you also denying the Stats Canada data on the price index of apartment building construction mostly unchanged since late 2000's?

I see the index but like I said we've been hit with a material increase of 8% in Q3-2015, 10% in Q4-2015 & 8% in Q1-2016. My experience going back to Q3 doesn't jive with the stats your posting at all. What the fuck do I know though, I only deal with pricing, materials and construction costs daily.

[GLOW]

i dunno...next thing you know you're going to tell us you get shit on for material pricing owners/reps showing you what they found from home depot's website...or alibaba

Spoiler!

yep, i've been alibaba'd before

[Gumby]

stylez2k4, I don't understand why you are debating the information people who have gone through the process, or work directly in the industry, are providing you?

[Digitalis]

The difference between building a house in surrey vs vancouver is about 300% more permits and inspections required.

Originally Posted by stylez2k4

One aspect of the housing bloom I don't get is why construction cost so high? The cost to build a house in Vancouver is more than what it would cost to buy something similar in another city with land. I've heard figures in the 400-500K range for a 3000-4000FT2 home.

There isn't any constraints on labour and capital for construction that I can think off that can explain the high price. Unless the cost of living in Vancouver is high enough to dissuade builders to come from other parts of Canada and US.

[PeanutButter]

Is there a rental property investment thread or a thread that talks about rental properties?
I remember there being one with Dinosaur, but I can't find it.


I'm about to buy my first investment property and i'm trying to gather as much info as possible.

[sdubfid]

Originally Posted by PeanutButter

Is there a rental property investment thread or a thread that talks about rental properties?
I remember there being one with Dinosaur, but I can't find it.


I'm about to buy my first investment property and i'm trying to gather as much info as possible.

Looked into biggerpockets.com?

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by PeanutButter

Is there a rental property investment thread or a thread that talks about rental properties?
I remember there being one with Dinosaur, but I can't find it.


I'm about to buy my first investment property and i'm trying to gather as much info as possible.

Investment property only cares for two words: CAP Rate.

If after all the expenses factoring into a net cap is too low, take a hike unless the future potential is that much greater. And if the property is cash-flow negative, think hard if it's worth the risk. Because when it doesn't go the way you plan, you'd sink hard. (where in case of cashflow positive, at least you can wait it out)

Also, own the land if and when possible at all cost. The potential is much greater than a strata unit.

[nah]

The market is fucked and this is based on my experience on my street in Delta.

All listings by same realtor, Sue Chen.

March
2 houses side by side, 12,000 sq ft lot each, asking $828,000 each, both sold in 2 weeks.

April
2 houses, 1 house between them and directly across the street from the ones sold in March, 9,000 sq ft lot each, asking $925,000 each, both sold in 2-3 weeks.

May
corner house 2-3 houses from the ones sold in April, just listed for over a million. Now other houses in the area have her as the listing agent as well.

There's just so much greed in the market right now that it's sick and it's killing Vancouver and surrounding areas.

[UFO]

^Not much context above, but you give me the opportunity to 'make' $200k over less than 3 months without doing any work or anything illegal, sign me up, every single time.

Yeah the market is messed, but when you're on the other side and able to gain from it, perpsective changes.

[Hondaracer]

12k sq ft for 800's is a deal these days

[GLOW]

Originally Posted by UFO

^Not much context above, but you give me the opportunity to 'make' $200k over less than 3 months without doing any work or anything illegal, sign me up, every single time.

in that industry, the latter is not an issue for some people

[sonick]

Wow, didn't really realize the magnitude of the SFH price boom lately until this graph from latest avg sales values:



gg SFH.

[Tapioca]

Yeah, the detached home is running away from the other forms of housing. There simply aren't enough detached homes to meet the demand, foreign investment or not. There are fewer detached lots now too as larger lots are being converted to strata (townhouses, duplex/tri-plex, etc.)

I'm surprised by the overall decline in condo prices though. Prices for condos in certain areas, such as downtown Vancouver and Burnaby-Brentwood, have increased at similar rates to other forms of housing.

[fsy82]

The housing in Surrey is nuts right now. I bought my town home 5 years ago for 349k inclusive of GST. Right now my neighbor who is in a middle unit just sold his for $450K..he listed it for $399K. Surrey is or if not already will be priced out for a lot of people very soon.

[sonick]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

I'm surprised by the overall decline in condo prices though. Prices for condos in certain areas, such as downtown Vancouver and Burnaby-Brentwood, have increased at similar rates to other forms of housing.

The decline shown is compared to the previous month, not STLY so it's not too drastic. Overall trends is up in the past year.

[subordinate]

Originally Posted by sonick

Wow, didn't really realize the magnitude of the SFH price boom lately until this graph from latest avg sales values:



gg SFH.

I'm no wizard but charts like that are the same patterns throughout history.

A rise like that is unsustainable. This looks like the euphoric phase. Everything is a perfect storm. Low interest rates, not enough SFHs, Contruction, lots of money, etc. Overconfidence that the this housing market will do nothing but up and up.

[Hondaracer]

Sold my condo yesterday in surrey, 2 bedroom 1 bath near 108th and King George, low rise wood frame.

Purchased in 2008 for 235, sold yesterday for 210 after being listed for 3 months



At least I didn't buy multiple units like some people I knew

[hypediss]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Sold my condo yesterday in surrey, 2 bedroom 1 bath near 108th and King George, low rise wood frame.

Purchased in 2008 for 235, sold yesterday for 210 after being listed for 3 months



At least I didn't buy multiple units like some people I knew

[Mr.Money]

cot damn...you didn't want to wait it out?.

[Hondaracer]

not really.. sick of dealing with renters and the building itself. 108th and King George doesnt exactly attract the best neighbors to the building.

The problem in that area is that new construction is going for the same price i bought for in 2008. I redid the floors, baseboards, tile, and painted/recaulked everything so my unit looked pretty much new and still had trouble moving it.

The volume in the area and new construction projects getting underway didnt make me think i'd be seeing much of a profit down the line.

I dont feel so bad though, some people i work with bought 2 units in the same building, a few of them being 2 bed/2 bath/Den for like 340 lol, never gonna sell that shit.

Edit* Also in 2008 i bought on pre-sale, with a "friend" discount, so that goes to show the state of the market there for some of the buildings.

2008 was a terrible time to buy into that building though, everything took a shit like 2 months after i paid

[UFO]

Originally Posted by GLOW

in that industry, the latter is not an issue for some people

I think like most industries, the line between legal/ethical is quite thin. The successful will commonly skirt just barely to the safe side of that line. But of course many will skirt just over to make a buck.