Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[MarkyMark]

Originally Posted by kr4l

Can't hate on a lucky man if your unlucky yourself I guess

If you're priced out, buy something you can afford? Everything seems to be all about want want want and if cant have it, it's not fair.

Don't get me wrong, I feel your pain and I too hope the rising house prices stop, and it does go down and levels itself out a bit, but you gotta listen to what you're saying because you're getting called out on a lot of it.

Gain $1 and it's a sound investment. Gain $100 and it's luck. The only lucky thing in the world that I can think of is paying $5 for a lotto max winning something. Most of us who got in are not using the house for an investment anyways so we haven't gained shit all

Like I mentioned earlier, I am still planning to get a place next year, and I'm not going to sweat it if the price goes up or down because my plan is to live there at least 10 years until I either want to upgrade or relocate. If I buy and the place gains 60k before I even move in does that make me intelligent? If it goes down 60k before I move in am I dumb? It's neither, and like you said, it doesn't matter if your goal is to live there.

[Roach]

Buying real estate right now is the stock market equivalent of a crowded trade. So many people are purportedly successful real estate investors with a significant number of these individuals holding several properties (positions). The amount of leverage is sometimes astounding.

Reminds of the story of the 1929 Stock Market Crash when the shoe-shine boy was giving stock tips:

JOE KENNEDY, a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good, a theory also advanced by Bernard Baruch, another vested interest who described the scene before the big Crash:

"Taxi drivers told you what to buy. The shoeshine boy could give you a summary of the day's financial news as he worked with rag and polish. An old beggar who regularly patrolled the street in front of my office now gave me tips and, I suppose, spent the money I and others gave him in the market. My cook had a brokerage account and followed the ticker closely. Her paper profits were quickly blown away in the gale of 1929."

WHEN THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALK STOCKS IT WAS A GREAT SELL SIGNAL IN 1929. SO WHAT ARE THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALKING ABOUT NOW? - April 15, 1996

Enter at your own peril, because psychology could change rapidly, signalling a rush for the exits. All IMO of course.

Kev

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

Why don't I get in now? Cause I'm priced out of a house, duh. Just because I know a house that's 700k will most likely go up over the next 20 years doesn't mean I can afford a mortgage for 700k.

Sorry but it is luck. No one ever imagined prices would increase 30+% in a year. They might have knew it was a sound investment and wouldn't go underwater, but gaining 200+k in a year or two, get out of here.

Have you spoken to a mortgage broker or financial planner about what you can actually afford? Have you and your partner had a conversation about what your needs really are versus wants? As others have said, owning is not a cakewalk and requires sacrifice. My parents sacrificed and your parents probably did as well. My wife's parents couldn't even afford to get birthday gifts for my wife's friends, so they had to save the gifts my wife received on birthday to re-gift in order to save face.

If you really, really want land and were willing to buy a house in Langley, what's stopping you from buying a house today in Abbotsford for 550-600K?

[originalhypa]

Originally Posted by Roach

Reminds of the story of the 1929 Stock Market Crash when the shoe-shine boy was giving stock tips:

It's crazy, but when a friend of mine bought a piece of land to develop about 3 months ago, I knew it was over. There are certain folks who you wonder how they survived so long, because they're neither smart nor lucky. When those folks are getting into the market for "investment purposes", it's all over.

I personally would love to see the market drop to a point where a 5% return on my rent would be feasible. Will people lose their shirts? Yup. Just like the non-savvy investors have been doing for millennia. But when you're paying over a million dollars for a high density Langley home, you're doing it wrong.

[GLOW]

what about over a million for an east van home?

[Carl Johnson]

Originally Posted by Roach

Buying real estate right now is the stock market equivalent of a crowded trade. So many people are purportedly successful real estate investors with a significant number of these individuals holding several properties (positions). The amount of leverage is sometimes astounding.

Reminds of the story of the 1929 Stock Market Crash when the shoe-shine boy was giving stock tips:



WHEN THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALK STOCKS IT WAS A GREAT SELL SIGNAL IN 1929. SO WHAT ARE THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALKING ABOUT NOW? - April 15, 1996

Enter at your own peril, because psychology could change rapidly, signalling a rush for the exits. All IMO of course.

Kev

LMAO at the comparison of buying a home to a crowded trade. Is buying milk and oranges from the grocery store a crowded trade as well? Well I guess it would be if we go by your analogy. To be contrarian just for sake of being a contrarian will get you killed in the investment world pretty quickly.

No big crash is in the cards except on the high-ends folks. People who have being sitting on the sideline for years, this is probably the only freebie Christy Clark will throw at you. Use this uncertain time wisely and buy that home you've always wanted.

[MarkyMark]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Have you spoken to a mortgage broker or financial planner about what you can actually afford? Have you and your partner had a conversation about what your needs really are versus wants? As others have said, owning is not a cakewalk and requires sacrifice. My parents sacrificed and your parents probably did as well. My wife's parents couldn't even afford to get birthday gifts for my wife's friends, so they had to save the gifts my wife received on birthday to re-gift in order to save face.

If you really, really want land and were willing to buy a house in Langley, what's stopping you from buying a house today in Abbotsford for 550-600K?

I know what I'm able to afford and what I'm able to afford. You're right my parents sacrificed a lot. I know my dad went most of his life after having kids never buying anything for himself, the shitty times where stress levels were through the roof wondering if he'll have a job to go back to when it burned down, living pretty much always cheque to cheque.

It's because of this that I'm probably a bit more reserved with my cash. I don't ever want to live life stressed to the max, which is why I'm unwillingly to buy into an overpriced house in an inflated market just to get in.

I also don't want to have to commute an hour back and forth everyday. If that's entitled then I guess I'm entitled but I refuse to spend 10-15 hours of my life every week just driving to work and back.

I'm not asking for handouts I'm asking that the government puts it's own people first so prices are affordable for the working middle class. What good does millionaires from other countries buying a house and not living in them do for us? Oh you get some tax money, great, at the expense of voters getting the shaft.

[Hondaracer]

all the high density multi family stuff will fall off eventually. People who bought in the past 2-3 years thinking they won the lottery in the equity they built will be brought back down to earth when 300+ units are built within close proximity and the asking price for these brand new units is what people think their 3-10 year old unit is worth.

Langley 208th area, Clayton, Panorama in surrey, etc.

Creating crazy density is a two-way street

in the absolute best times, developers sell out on pre-sale, raise the prices as they lose inventory, and basically inflate the artificial equity of the surrounding units

however, prices become so that why the fuck would you buy a brand new unit at XXX when you can buy a 5 year old unit for 15-30% less for essentially the same building?

When prices reach those levels and older units begin to stay on the market, that "equity" you built by having new units go for higher prices than what you paid is essentially gone, and multiple units within the same complex staying on the market for extended periods of time = bye bye equity

obviously the only "safe" bet is detached single family homes, and the closer to Vancouver you are, the safer it is imo

[Carl Johnson]

Originally Posted by MarkyMark

I know what I'm able to afford and what I'm able to afford. You're right my parents sacrificed a lot. I know my dad went most of his life after having kids never buying anything for himself, the shitty times where stress levels were through the roof wondering if he'll have a job to go back to when it burned down, living pretty much always cheque to cheque.

It's because of this that I'm probably a bit more reserved with my cash. I don't ever want to live life stressed to the max, which is why I'm unwillingly to buy into an overpriced house in an inflated market just to get in.

I also don't want to have to commute an hour back and forth everyday. If that's entitled then I guess I'm entitled but I refuse to spend 10-15 hours of my life every week just driving to work and back.

I'm not asking for handouts I'm asking that the government puts it's own people first so prices are affordable for the working middle class. What good does millionaires from other countries buying a house and not living in them do for us? Oh you get some tax money, great, at the expense of voters getting the shaft.

Then have fun dealing with landlords. Life is already difficult as it is, why make it more complicated? Government should not interfere with the market in general, but Vancouver's situation has gotten out of control, so now the government did something quite significant imo. Use this opportunity wisely. Venting on an internet forum does not bring security and peace of mind to you and your family.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

however, prices become so that why the fuck would you buy a brand new unit at XXX when you can buy a 5 year old unit for 15-30% less for essentially the same building?

When prices reach those levels and older units begin to stay on the market, that "equity" you built by having new units go for higher prices than what you paid is essentially gone, and multiple units within the same complex staying on the market for extended periods of time = bye bye equity

Actually, I have the completely opposite mindset, although I don't think 5 year old units are 15 - 30% cheaper than the new ones.

My thinking goes -- if there is a brand new building right next to the 5 y.o. one that I am interested in, why would I want to buy that 5 y.o. building for just a bit less money? The 5 y.o. building has 2 of its warranties run out already, and I will probably need to do at least some minor reno / painting / touch ups before I can move it. I might as well grab something new.

Not sure how others view this though.

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by Traum

Actually, I have the completely opposite mindset, although I don't think 5 year old units are 15 - 30% cheaper than the new ones.

My thinking goes -- if there is a brand new building right next to the 5 y.o. one that I am interested in, why would I want to buy that 5 y.o. building for just a bit less money? The 5 y.o. building has 2 of its warranties run out already, and I will probably need to do at least some minor reno / painting / touch ups before I can move it. I might as well grab something new.

Not sure how others view this though.

thats why it's a balancing act. And, like you said prices are currently such where people value their older units so highly that it makes no sense not to pay a little more to get that brand new unit.

Exact thing happened to me and my unit in Surrey Central a while back as i discussed, lost 15k over 8 years on a $230,000 low rise condo because who the fuck wants my unit when brand new units are 240-260

Once the market is saturated though, and townhomes etc. are no longer selling out on pre-sale, i think people will begin to realize there is more value in an older unit than the newer units, especially if it gets to the point where people are opening up to offers around or below asking

[MarkyMark]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

Then have fun dealing with landlords. Life is already difficult as it is, why make it more complicated? Government should not interfere with the market in general, but Vancouver's situation has gotten out of control, so now the government did something quite significant imo. Use this opportunity wisely. Venting on an internet forum does not bring security and peace of mind to you and your family.

It remains to be seen. Nothing has happened yet, no hint of a correction, and if all it does it make prices flatline then it's not enough. There's no opportunity to be had unless prices go back a year or two.

[Tapioca]

Re: multi-family and density

I think it depends on the area you're buying into. I used to think that there would be too much supply, but look at what's happening in Brentwood with condos. People are going crazy over there, speculation notwithstanding. I think it's because people are finally understanding that there aren't many areas in Metro Vancouver that have easy access to the highway and Skytrain. Plus, I guess the whole Whole Foods effect. I definitely saw a lot more young white couples and families in the area just before I moved out.

If I were in the market for a multi-family unit, the key is to get one in a mature community amongst a sea of detached homes with single family zoning.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Traum

Actually, I have the completely opposite mindset, although I don't think 5 year old units are 15 - 30% cheaper than the new ones.

My thinking goes -- if there is a brand new building right next to the 5 y.o. one that I am interested in, why would I want to buy that 5 y.o. building for just a bit less money? The 5 y.o. building has 2 of its warranties run out already, and I will probably need to do at least some minor reno / painting / touch ups before I can move it. I might as well grab something new.

Not sure how others view this though.

There's always uncertainty with new units. You can't see and touch the unit. You don't know how solid the building is. You don't know how the strata is going to run things.

With a 5-year old unit, you'll have a better sense o how solid the building is and how well it's managed. Plus, you can actually touch and see what you're buying. And the majority of apartments built 5 years ago offer more square footage for your dollar.

[hud 91gt]

Originally Posted by Roach

Buying real estate right now is the stock market equivalent of a crowded trade. So many people are purportedly successful real estate investors with a significant number of these individuals holding several properties (positions). The amount of leverage is sometimes astounding.

Reminds of the story of the 1929 Stock Market Crash when the shoe-shine boy was giving stock tips:



WHEN THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALK STOCKS IT WAS A GREAT SELL SIGNAL IN 1929. SO WHAT ARE THE SHOESHINE BOYS TALKING ABOUT NOW? - April 15, 1996

Enter at your own peril, because psychology could change rapidly, signalling a rush for the exits. All IMO of course.

Kev

As I read that I thought upon my peers who have purchased recently due to emotions and their lack of ability to get in if they wait. Carl disagrees but these situations shows emotion. If you get swarms of emotional over leveraged people what could possibly go wrong?

The number of people I've seen scared into purchasing a 3/4 million dollar home recently (Victoria) due to fear of missing out is astounding.

Government intervention may expedite the process of slowing the market. That is a good thing. The market will fall. How high did you really want it to happen before it does so?

Everyone is preaching about how awful it is for people to wish the market will crash. The market will go back to it's fundamentals at some point. Having it happen now(or a few years from now) is going to affect a lot less people then if it were to happen 9 years from now at the current rate.

It will hurt a lot of younger people and their smaller down payments. In fact it will probably hurt me. But being realistic about the situation doesn't exactly make me an asshole does it?

[MarkyMark]

Originally Posted by Traum

Actually, I have the completely opposite mindset, although I don't think 5 year old units are 15 - 30% cheaper than the new ones.

My thinking goes -- if there is a brand new building right next to the 5 y.o. one that I am interested in, why would I want to buy that 5 y.o. building for just a bit less money? The 5 y.o. building has 2 of its warranties run out already, and I will probably need to do at least some minor reno / painting / touch ups before I can move it. I might as well grab something new.

Not sure how others view this though.

I went and looked at a couple of townhouse units a few weeks back that were a couple of years old and it was pretty startling how shitty they were kept up. Lots of gashes on the walls from when they moved in, stains and noticeable wear on the carpets, stains on the walls... They did a really shitty job of presenting the place I guess people think they just sell themselves so why clean?

All for the bargain price of 425k for a two bedroom in Langley. Last I checked it was still on the market at least, if that piece of crap sold for asking I'd be scared.

At that point brand new two minutes down the road was looking a lot more enticing.

[GLOW]

maybe they thought people would end up repainting and possibly changing the carpets when moving in so why waste the money and choose a colour for the potential new owner?

then again in this market people are getting REALLY lazy - paid lots for minimal to zero effort. when i was looking 2 years ago in e.van i saw this house that was empty and COMPLETELY unkept. you're talking garbage on the floors possibly construction waste (looked like wet drywall crap on the carpet) and the such. probably renting by the room and clearing them out when put on sale. i think they told us to take off our shoes before going in too

it sold but i'm like WOW that's how ridiculous the market is now, you don't even have to try...at all...and ask for quite a high price at that time.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

There's always uncertainty with new units. You can't see and touch the unit. You don't know how solid the building is. You don't know how the strata is going to run things.

With a 5-year old unit, you'll have a better sense o how solid the building is and how well it's managed. Plus, you can actually touch and see what you're buying. And the majority of apartments built 5 years ago offer more square footage for your dollar.

From my own experience, I'd say that when comparing between new units (pre-sale to 1+ y.o.) to old units in the 5 - 10 y.o. range, the buyer is really just weighting between different issues that need attention, and considering different risks.

The new buildings will have the potential issues that you mentioned, plus building / finishing defects where the developer will come back and fix under warranty. The fixes are "free" in the monetary sense, but will still require time and trouble to arrange.

Older buildings will have things starting to wear out when they are within that 5 - 10 y.o. range. At my apartment, we've had the HAVC die within the first 5 years. Then it was the water tanks some time between year 5 to 8, which required strata to completely replace the entire system with something sturdier. And then it was the water pipes, some of which were covered under warranty. But now the building is older and out of the warranty period, and the original pipes are now leaking at one place after another -- I swear the plumbing and restoration companies that service our building absolutely love us for the continual business.

So for the most part when it comes to apartment buying, new vs up to 15 y.o. don't seem all that different to me. You are really just weighting a collection of factors, and choosing the most attractive / bearable compromise ...

[Ch28]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

There's always uncertainty with new units. You can't see and touch the unit. You don't know how solid the building is. You don't know how the strata is going to run things.

With a 5-year old unit, you'll have a better sense o how solid the building is and how well it's managed. Plus, you can actually touch and see what you're buying. And the majority of apartments built 5 years ago offer more square footage for your dollar.

I think Hondaracer mentioned that earlier in the thread. Buying into an 'older' apartment that has been well maintained is often better than buying into a pre-sale. Building is often settled, strata is experienced with dealing on issues, and you tend to get more sqft because of it's age.

The biggest issue with newly built apartments is often the strata council. It's usually filled with people that don't have the experience to deal with all the issues that a new building has, so things can get delayed or not done at all.

[Hondaracer]

Good depreciation report, low maintanence costs, and an honest strata beats a new build any day imo

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

WTF? Am I giving off some feminine vibes in my recent posts or something?

Oops. Maybe I am mistaken you from another user.
My bad.

Originally Posted by westopher

You had the advantage of the year you were born. Thats the part that disgusts me the most about this situation, is people refuse to understand that there is absolutely no hope for a younger generation, no matter how hard they work or how smart they are.

My parents came to Canada in the early 70's and bought their first place in 1980. They rode through the tough times when interest rates were at their peaks.
But due to certain gambles that didn't pay out, they lost the house and we had to rent.
My wife's parents came to Canada in the early 80's.
Her dad worked 2 minimum wage jobs and learned english at night while her mom stayed home to watch the kids and they managed to raise a family as well as buy a house during the same high interest rate times.

Was I lucky? No. I needed a roof over my head and I was paying $700 per month in rent. I didn't get any free handouts.
The wife (GF at the time) said why don't we pool our money together and buy a condo. Better than paying rent for an old smelly basement, which is what we did.

Going back to what you said.
There are still condo's that are sub $300K in vancouver. They might not be the Shangri-La, but they aren't that bad.
Don't believe me.
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/S...olumbia-V5L4L1
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/S...olumbia-V5K5G5

This one is asking sub $200K
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/S...olumbia-V5R4H6

But I guess these are not houses with land so it's not good enough.

[CivicBlues]

Originally Posted by SumAznGuy

Oops. Maybe I am mistaken you from another user.
My bad.

No worries, I even think we met in person way back in the day. So you can understand my confusion LOL.

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Has anyone completed a Private Sale before as a purchaser?

If so, pitfalls as a buyer?

[wingies]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Good depreciation report, low maintanence costs, and an honest strata beats a new build any day imo

Thats pretty much it, my friend moved into a new buidling in Richmond about 2 years ago now, started off paying 180 a month for strata, now hes at 450 a month. Given that they do have the central AC and fancy amenities; but holy shit thats a good chunk of your mortgage to strata fees

[SumAznGuy]

I haven't been actively looking at my emails from my realtor but a quick scan still shows some units selling within a week and some units being on the market for over 90 days.
As for the units that sold, some were way above asking price.

For example, 1067 22nd ave.
Sold in 7 days. Asking price was $899K and sold for $1.1M.
This was sold on july 18th.

493 King Edward.
Asking price $698K for a small lot older home.
Sold in 8 days for $935K on July 11th.

I think what it comes down to is location, asking price, how well the realtor staged the place, and what they did to bring in visitors to the open house.
More visitors means more potential offers.

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

No worries, I even think we met in person way back in the day. So you can understand my confusion LOL.

Quite possible. This is my second account.
The first one would have been 2001 when the street race scene was still big.