Pay $20 for a bum to throw shit and egg his window. He will know you did it but can't actually do shit to you.

hahaha love the comments I'm reading but I think Special K still wants to live in his home down the road and this person will remain being his neighbour.

First, see if this guy is the actual owner or just a renter. If renter, see if you can contact the owner, they will more likely kick him out than getting flagged with the city. You can always say they are doing renovations without any permitting (which seems likely with the insulation).

But still, best option is to go through the city.

RS car meet in front of his house

Couldn't agree more. Long-term thesis for Vancouver RE bull market is still intact so buy the dip renters!

Another thing I have noticed is that Zerohedge have published multiple articles on Vancouver real estate since the tax. Those guys have been wrong since the depth of financial crisis. You can always fade those morons at Zerohedge.

I would take their advice with a grain of salt. They make money on transactions so of course it is always a good time to buy regardless of which direction the market is going.

I read that as...we're seeing less business now that everyone is scared so please buy more houses.

I still want to wait a bit. Maybe this is just the beginning.

Exactly. If someone was holding out from buying before, prices flatlining but still expensive as fuck is hardly a "now's your chance!" moment.

Real estate agents are in the business of moving houses, they'll always tell you the time is now.

Personally, I think it makes sense to buy the house you need at the price you want to pay. If you see a property that comes up and you feel that you can make an offer that makes sense to you, then make an offer. It doesn't make much sense to try to time the market, particularly if you're looking to live in the home rather than trying to maximize your ROI.

If you're looking to pick up a rental property on the cheap, then it makes sense to wait for the bottom.

I agree, which is why people saying "this is as good as it's ever going to get" makes some feel pressured into buying something they would otherwise pass on. You don't think a bunch of people who bought over the last year went above their comfort zone because of all this talk on Vancouver will never crash and if you don't jump on board now you'll never get in?

If sales go back to the way they were two months ago in September, then it won't be wrong to say right now is the best time

Yep, and if prices go down then it will be wrong.

the problem is that most people are happy to pay certain prices because of the diminishing value of their RE dollars, not because they think 1m is actually a great price for an average home in the suburbs for example.

I agree.

It's a shitty situation here in Vancouver. The 15% tax was a big surprise to me, but in the end, I don't think houses will come down 40-50%. It is my opinion that the game has changed - foreign money, the ALR, low interest rates, and the desirability of this place have all led us to where we are.

If I was single and had no equity, I would leave to be honest. For people like us with equity, good jobs and professional networks, and kids, it makes sense to buy, even at inflated prices.

“Cecil Graham: What is a cynic?
Lord Darlington: A man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing."

- Oscar Wilde


“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”

- Warren Buffett


Vancouver home prices have gone up for many reasons. Off-shore buyer is only part of the picture but imo they have only really affected the market in a significant way in the last 5 or so years. There are many long-term positives for this city that will prevent a big drop in prices.

If I was a someone on the sideline I definitely be looking for some sellers who are desperate and fearful of further drop in prices and negotiate very hard instead of waiting and will again miss a big opportunity. You don't want to be the guy sitting in someone else's basement come 2017 or 2018 and regret you were too cynical and hesitant back in 2016.

The foreign buyers tax literally just came out, unless you were planning to buy either way what would possess me to buy now instead of wait and see if it has any effect on prices? Nothing has changed yet, sure I might be able to get a home inspection on top of paying for a house that was 40% cheaper the year before, but that's about it.

I'm failing to see this big opportunity you're talking about.

^ Then wait. Just understand that there's risks either way.

Some people have been waiting to buy for years. Maybe they're sick of getting renovicted, sick of dealing with fixed term leases, sick of freeloading off their parents, or they have a kid(more kids) on the way and they need more space. The realtor is not wrong in saying that it's an uncertain time to make a lowball offer. At least it will be considered by the listing agent, instead of laughed at.

With respect to your investments, do you panic sell them when the market takes a hit? No. It's the same as housing. Would you panic sell when it drops 20%? Nope, you live in it and chip away. With interest rates as low as they are, you're putting 50% of your payments away as equity, even on a 30-year amortization. This will provide you sufficient cushion when it comes time to renew your mortgage in 5 years.

Basically the news is that there's uncertainty and you can put in aggressive offers to people that might be getting fewer offers? That might make the current time the best time in years to buy but it's also just a tiny blip compared to how high prices have risen. It's like getting a 5% discount on something that went up in price 100%.

It just feels more like realtors are scared and they're trying to drum up business to replace what they've lost.

If everyone just up and buys something now, we just go back to where we were except with local buyers instead of foreign. That's great...but if we all sit on our hands a bit, then sellers will get even more worried and maybe we'll see a bigger crash.

That only works if there is enough people that are *THAT* desperate to sell, and that will only happen if the interest rates go up to the point that people can no longer afford to pay the mortgage, or there is a mass exodus of people and there becomes a fire sale.

Keep in mind, during 2008-2012, the peak of the recession only saw a 15% drop in prices.

If the price of a house can jump up 40% in a single year, why is it unfathomable that the same house might drop back down 20-30% in the future?

It could but highly unlikely.
Historically, RE doesn't have such big ups and downs.
RE has always been seen as a safe long term investment.

As long as the owners can make the mortgage payments, there is no need to sell at such a loss.
Interest rates climbing to >5% might cause it.
Or a good chunk of the population was desperate to sell and didn't mind taking a loss, then yes.

But again, I stress. Highly unlikely unless something more drastic than the US ecomonic crash happens.

When we look at current unemployment in Canada, it doesn't seem all that far fetched.

One province already deep in the well but let's blame it all on the current government and not hold the previous one(s) accountable.

Alberta in worst recession since government began recording data in 1980s as deficit balloons to $10.9 billion | Financial Post

RE is a conservative (and safe) investment because as you say the prices dont have "big ups and downs" , they normally gradually increase...

This is why vancouver may be volatile as it doesn't follow this trend and we've seen a "big up" so... guess we'll just have to see.

You're quoting a bunch of realtors coming out telling people to buy. I'm sure it will be fine.

http://i1229.photobucket.com/albums/...pseozdshwi.jpg

It is normal people here fighting for more price increase. They have vested interest. Imagine you have no clue about investment, all of a sudden price went ballistic to the upside. Everyone looks like geniuses "beating the market". They will keep defending if price keep dropping.

http://i1229.photobucket.com/albums/...pss6zkpk2o.jpg

Imo, Vancouver is barely at stage 5. Alberta is at stage 8-9.

Whatever the status Vancouver market is in, what the realtors said was just what they want their audience (buyers) to be hearing.

If a seller goes to the very same realtors, first they would say... no, the effect of 15% means nothing... foreigner purchases account for a very small percentage... we can get your property sold at staggering prices!

Then the dumb seller goes and lists his property.

The same realtors meet potential buyers at open house: the market is still very robust and still seeing price increases. Our price is super competitive so you should buy, buy, buy!

Potential buyers: but didn't you say the market is turning and we should lowball the seller?

Realtor: I will tell you what, present x amount for offer and I'd go talk to the seller.

(very few offer received, nowhere near close to asking)

Realtors: oh... the market has changed, I think the offer is very strong. You should SELL!!!

Dumb seller: but didn't you say the effect was little?

Realtors: it changed faster than we expected... blah blah blah.

At the end, either seller sells at more realistic price, or continue to re-list/take off market. Realtors just say whatever BS they think the person want to hear. Very very few of them actually give a fuck. All the care is about selling.