Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[UFO]

So, have you read the thread? It's a long read, but there's also some very good information in it. And then you'd appreciate that with your current projected numbers, you probably won't even need to ask your question since its not the best investment with the current market.

[G]

^Thanks for the response. I have not read the whole thread, but I was just curious to know if anyone in Vancouver ever purchased real estate investments elsewhere. With my current projected numbers, the monthly rent payments actually cover more than the mortgage as well as the fees involved in the property. I will take some time to read through the whole thread to see if anyone has been involved with anything similiar.

[westopher]

Read my posts. I make positive cash-flow on a place in edmonton. Literally only 100 bucks a month after tax and condo fees, and that was with around 100k down on a 250k place. If you are looking for investments specifically, multi unit homes are really the only worthwhile investment IMO. I bought the place to live in though, and then decided to get the fuck out of there before I jumped off the high level bridge. There are so many things I would have been better off investing in, however, it worked out ok still. I don't work with a management company, and offer about 150-200 below market value to have family friends as tenants who I can trust. Knowing the deal that they are getting, they don't really bitch about anything, although being a new building not much has gone wrong.

[Gridlock]

Originally Posted by westopher

Read my posts. I make positive cash-flow on a place in edmonton. Literally only 100 bucks a month after tax and condo fees, and that was with around 100k down on a 250k place. If you are looking for investments specifically, multi unit homes are really the only worthwhile investment IMO. I bought the place to live in though, and then decided to get the fuck out of there before I jumped off the high level bridge. There are so many things I would have been better off investing in, however, it worked out ok still. I don't work with a management company, and offer about 150-200 below market value to have family friends as tenants who I can trust. Knowing the deal that they are getting, they don't really bitch about anything, although being a new building not much has gone wrong.

Now, obviously there is something to be said about having a place and renting it out based on no longer fitting your lifestyle...but as an investment 100k should buy you a lot more than $100/month.

[westopher]

Exactly my point. All things considered its pretty shitty. But also I think of the people who bought condos as investments they couldn't afford, and lost their pants over it. I'll gain a bit of equity, and sell when I need to. As it stands renting here is suiting me just fine, and I know with the money to be made in edmonton for people moving there, I'm safe holding onto it for the time being. That being said. 100k in my fucking bank account right now would be pretty awesome.

[minoru_tanaka]

I know interest rates are low right now but you're getting 1% so wouldn't Canada Savings Bonds be better? Save the headache
Or even this TD savings account @1.1%
Personal Banking Services: Account Rates | TD Canada Trust

[sdubfid]

That's $100 after ALL expenses though isn't it? So it doesn't include what is being paid towards the principle?

[Spoon]

Few years down the road when appliances start breaking down. You're going to have a tough time staying positive. Place I'm renting is only 3-4 years old and the owner already had to replace my microwave, smoke detectors and little things here and there. But I guess you made the best out of your situation.
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[westopher]

Originally Posted by minoru_tanaka

I know interest rates are low right now but you're getting 1% so wouldn't Canada Savings Bonds be better? Save the headache
Or even this TD savings account @1.1%
Personal Banking Services: Account Rates | TD Canada Trust

Dealing with paying for a realtor and all the shit that comes along with it makes it not worthwhile to switch.
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[MindBomber]

I'm posting this here, because it relates to the discussion on microhomes a number of pages back. Interesting.

Very Cool NOMAD Micro Home

[LiquidTurbo]

Vancouver to set construction record in 2013! - YouTube

[westopher]

Originally Posted by Spoon

Few years down the road when appliances start breaking down. You're going to have a tough time staying positive. Place I'm renting is only 3-4 years old and the owner already had to replace my microwave, smoke detectors and little things here and there. But I guess you made the best out of your situation.
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Not living in edmonton = I'll never be negative about my situation. Its not my only investment, and I'm not losing, nor will I likely ever lose any truly irreplaceable amount of money on it. Once it starts being a headache, its sold. WORST case scenario is I lose a couple grand.

[4444]

Originally Posted by LiquidTurbo

Vancouver to set construction record in 2013! - YouTube

That was the absolute worst, one sided story I have ever seen in my life

And a 'Vancouver' economy, Gregor?! Seriously - Vancouver is too small to have an 'economy' that anyone can try to adjust - province wide, yes, federally, yes - Vancouver? No - we're just along for the ride

And things in Vancouver aren't good - few 'quality' jobs

I could go on all day. This piece of advertising, propaganda, whatever you'll call it, angers me, as the stupid masses will believe it and start thinking 'buy now or buy never - oh no!'

[Gridlock]

well, 4444, wasn't that the entire goal in the US regarding housing?

It seemed to me that they didn't want to deal with the effects of a burst bubble..they wanted to re-inflate it. Get those prices back up, get people back into positive numbers on their mortgage and go back to racking up the credit card.

In Canada(and more in BC) the goal seemed to be taking the high gains off by limiting cheap money but now slowly re-inflate the growth.

Dino and I were looking around at new developments here in New West...mostly for entertainment value just to see whats happening and such.

Well, there are several grades of pricing for new condos right now, and we were looking at it and there is no real benefit to buying someone else's condo over waiting for a new one apart from occupancy(obvi, new ones are completing in 2014ish).

You can't have that. Even worse, I look and say "ok, I specialize in interior renovation. Show me a shit condo that no one else wants. I re-build to our taste for contractor rate materials only"

Still no. The numbers STILL don't work. I can't even get ahead right now on free labour-unless I buy something that is 40 years old, and converted to condo which just opens up a ton of financial issues.

"Dental plan! The building needs a new roof. Dental plan! Your home needs new pipes"

So ultimately, you have first class and coach condos being built right now(and the 40 yr old ones are like steerage)

First class: Brand new, for those of you that either have the 20% deposit or know mommies and daddies that do.

Coach: You buy used not because of price, but because you can still move in on 5% down.

The ONLY way it works at all is constant, upwards momentum on home values. Buy in now, to avoid getting fucked on price later.

Funny, we went into a building that I was really looking forward to seeing, Trapp Block in New West. Marketed by that little hipster bug Rennie.

They've been pimping this shit for I'd say 1 1/2 years. They had to move the sales center as they demoed the building it was in to start building the new one.

The prices are IN-SANE! $450k for a 2 bed/2 bath. The finishes were no better than any other cookie cutter condo. I was expecting that the company that was building it would have cool industrial style lofts with brick and polished concrete...nope! No one came and told me that they were offering sales incentives either.

As a result..they can't sell the f'ing thing. For all his "brilliance" (according to Global) he doesn't seem to have a grasp on how to sell units here.

[kiwee]

$30M house listing | Global News Video

[Gridlock]

Originally Posted by kiwee

$30M house listing | Global News Video

I'm thinking Global wants to have a stronger relationship with the Real Estate Board.

Maybe Rennie is a Shaw shareholder?

"OMG! Someone listed a house for $31 million, because you can list a house for however much you fucking want. It's news!!!!! Forget this crusty old $30 million house."

[westopher]

I was thinking the same thing. If anything these giant properties being sold are actually indicators of an inverse reaction by the actual real estate market, because it shows how the massive gap between rich and poor is consistently widening, and the prospect of an average person owning property in vancouver is slipping away, at least for the time being.

[godwin]

Coles Notes: Avoid condos. But we still don't know what the higher mortgage rate is going to do with the market. I honestly think, it won't be as bad as some on this thread is saying.. however as a disclaimer, I own properties but don't have mortgages anymore. My view is there are other more liquid and lucrative investments than real estate out there. If you need a place to live, seen a place that you love and can afford taking a 0% - 20% hit, especially during remortgage time.. then go for it. For those hoping for prices to come down 50%, might not want to hold your breath.

I was in TO the other day, north of 401.. it reminds me of a boulevard in Shanghai where the first 15 stories are parking and shops and apartments are 16-50 floors.. it is not very pedestrian friendly.


The Globe and Mail: Home sales bounce back, but a rate test lies ahead

June 17, 2013
Home sales bounce back, but a rate test lies ahead
By TARA PERKINS
Posted with permission from The Globe and Mail
Bank of Canada warns about risk from Toronto condos

Recovering home sales and stable prices are causing some analysts to declare that the housing market will avoid a hard landing. But the market has yet to face its biggest tests – higher mortgage rates and the completion of many planned condo units, largely in Toronto, that are currently just space in the sky.

The number of homes sold over the Multiple Listing Service in May was down just 2.6 per cent from a year earlier, signalling that the steep sales slump that began last summer is now abating. May's sales came in 3.6 per cent higher than April's, the largest month-over-month gain in more than two years and a sign the market is gaining momentum. The latest numbers prompted the Canadian Real Estate Association, which represents realtors across the country, to boost its outlook for both sales and prices, saying average prices have held firmer than expected.

"While the bears continue to line up – Nobel laureate Paul Krugman being the latest – the Canadian housing market is paying little attention," says Bank of Montreal economist Benjamin Reitzes wrote in a research note.

While this spring is shaping up to be a bit softer than last year, that is a development that policy makers in Ottawa were hoping for, because they believed that the market had become too frothy. With the Bank of Canada warning just last week that the housing market, especially Toronto condos, continues to pose a major risk to the economy, policy makers don't want to see a rebound that puts prices and consumer debt levels back on the fast track.

"Even if we get through 2013 and perhaps part of 2014 with a stabilized market, the story does not end there," Royal Bank of Canada economist Robert Hogue said in an interview. "There is going to be even greater pressure later, probably in 2015 and beyond, when interest rates are going to start rising. It's going to be a real challenge at that point. A lot of condo units will be completing, so that's going to be probably rough waters."

Economists at Bank of Nova Scotia are warning that, in the meantime, the slowdown has migrated from existing homes to those that are being newly constructed. Sales of new homes in Toronto were down 38 per cent in the first four months of this year, they wrote. "Housing corrections often last years, like the U.S. or Toronto from 1989-1995, and this one is unlikely to be any different."

But the realtors' association has become more optimistic and now expects 443,400 homes to sell over the MLS this year, 2.5 per cent fewer than last year. Three months ago the association was ratcheting down its forecast for the third time since last summer, predicting a 2.9-per-cent decline this year. It has raised its forecast for next year's sales, which it expects will rise 4.7 per cent.

Notably, the association is no longer expecting the national average selling price to fall this year. In March, it was predicting that the price would edge down 0.2 per cent from 2012 to $362,600. Now it says it is expecting the price to come in at $370,900, up 2.1 per cent from last year, due to a better outlook for sales in the pricier provinces of British Columbia and Ontario.

The surprises in terms of housing sales data have consistently been higher than economists have expected, Bank of Montreal economist Douglas Porter said in a research note.

"Many other housing indicators are ... on the high side, including starts above 200,000, a double-barrelled rise in building permits and a record share of employment in the construction sector (7.6 per cent of all jobs in May)," he added. He added that he believes the market is on track for the desired soft landing, with at least 24 of 26 major cities posting price gains in May compared to a year ago. "Prices remain stable, perhaps maddeningly so for the legions of bubble mongers," Mr. Porter wrote.

[godwin]

or just Shaw family have huge real estate holdings in both BC and Ab?

Originally Posted by Gridlock

I'm thinking Global wants to have a stronger relationship with the Real Estate Board.

Maybe Rennie is a Shaw shareholder?

"OMG! Someone listed a house for $31 million, because you can list a house for however much you fucking want. It's news!!!!! Forget this crusty old $30 million house."

[godwin]

He doesn't have much of a say of the product.. I mean he is paid to market it, not design it.

Originally Posted by Gridlock

As a result..they can't sell the f'ing thing. For all his "brilliance" (according to Global) he doesn't seem to have a grasp on how to sell units here.

[quasi]

Originally Posted by godwin

I was in TO the other day, north of 401.. it reminds me of a boulevard in Shanghai where the first 15 stories are parking and shops and apartments are 16-50 floors.. it is not very pedestrian friendly.

Have a look at the Marine Gateway project that's starting. It's basically that, not as large though. The condo's start on the 5th floor, everything below is commercial space for shopping, movie theatre and what not. Two residential towers, one office towers and the skytrain. Priced this a little while back, was really big, took a month just to do the takeoff, a normal tower takes 3-5 days.

http://marinegateway.com/

[Alpine]

I wonder how they are going to negate the aroma coming from the transfer station. I drove by marine drive and cambie on sunday when it was mid 20s and the smell was almost overwhelming.
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[Graeme S]

They won't negate the smell, but as soon as people move in they'll start complaining to the City of Vancouver and they'll close it and move it somewhere farther away because they can't live next to that smell.

It happened with the landfill in Burnaby near Edmonds--they built condos, and the landfill which had been there for ages got shut. It happened in Abbotsford with the mushroom farms...

[minoru_tanaka]

^Similar fate to the Indy race

[Gridlock]

...what they are trying to do to the rail tracks in New West.

Steps to profit:

1. Buy cheap, shitty, undesirable land
2. Build cool condos on it
3. Market cool condos as being "the next big thing"
4. Leave home owners to deal with the fact that the next big thing has a big ugly thing next door.
5. Profit.