Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[adambomb]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Literally just read an article in the 24 saying 1br downtown are going for $2600 a month? Wtf

Ya bro. I rent out my 1br Olympic Village for $2100/month.

What's even crazier is the amount of emails you get from people serious about renting close to dt at that price. If I dropped my 1br to a "reasonable" $1800/month, my phone would catch fire from all the incoming emails and I don't even own a Samsung Note.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by westopher

Again, I don't think you get what "average" means.
Just because there are people with unaccounted foriegn income does not mean there is any correlation to Canadian income averages. Their Canadian incomes are still zero if the money is coming from somewhere else.
Average jobs in Canada are unskilled labour, bank tellers, commission based retail, etc.
The average person doesn't have a university degree or the job that comes with it. That's supported by numbers, and your opinions don't change that.

OK if you're so stuck on Canadian average incomes then we'll talk about Canadian national averages for home prices, keep apples with apples, and take Vancouver out of the equation.

Maybe average was the wrong word since you are so stuck on the literal meaning, I should have used typical instead. Your belief of an average/typical Vancouver job is clearly different from mine. I'm not talking university degrees (whatever those are worth nowadays in finding a job), but yes some sort of post secondary training is obtained by most typical career minded people, on their way to a typical job. I'd like to see the numbers you are referring to.

I stand by my original point which has now been diluted by this side discussion of average Canadian incomes; a typical working professional couple should be able to save up 70k in 3-5 years if their priority is to save up for a 20% down payment, which really isn't unreasonably once again IMO. Whether they want to spend 350k on a preowned non-fancy starter condo is another discussion...

[Jmac]

Originally Posted by UFO

OK if you're so stuck on Canadian average incomes then we'll talk about Canadian national averages for home prices, keep apples with apples, and take Vancouver out of the equation.

Maybe average was the wrong word since you are so stuck on the literal meaning, I should have used typical instead. Your belief of an average/typical Vancouver job is clearly different from mine. I'm not talking university degrees (whatever those are worth nowadays in finding a job), but yes some sort of post secondary training is obtained by most typical career minded people, on their way to a typical job. I'd like to see the numbers you are referring to.

I stand by my original point which has now been diluted by this side discussion of average Canadian incomes; a typical working professional couple should be able to save up 70k in 3-5 years if their priority is to save up for a 20% down payment, which really isn't unreasonably once again IMO. Whether they want to spend 350k on a preowned non-fancy starter condo is another discussion...

The original reference was to limit mortgages to 3x annual salary with minimum 20% down. I said that would limit home ownership to the wealthy. You claim to have a point, which as far as I can tell, was to agree with that statement by implying it's reasonable because your "typical working professional couple" can reasonably afford a $350k condo. Well, no shit ... but that's hardly typical of the Canada.

Considering 68.5% of the Canadian workforce makes less than $50k/year (Stats Canada, 2014), that would severely limit the ability of the vast majority of working Canadians from owning a home.

[westopher]

So UFO. Are average Vancouver household incomes as high above the national average as Vancouver home prices are? Please let me know what you know that everyone else doesn't....
Last I checked people are stressed about home prices here because incomes don't match the prices, which is what makes an unstable market. But since you know what economists, politicians and banks can't seem to figure out, let's figure out your plan of where to go from here and fix the problem.

[Timpo]

Originally Posted by UFO

Im aware of what the stats show, and those are fairly skewed IMO. People working minimum wage jobs at McDonald's and Walmart should not be in consideration to buy property, even before prices took off

Lets look at it this way. I would say that being a teacher, nurse, office worker, construction/trades, these are all average work positions. Not entry level, you'd need some level of education and/or experience to be average in this sense. These positions can pay a fairly average 50-60k if not more depending on your skills and experience. Since when did working in these areas classify anyone as above average or even rich (by way of the official median income stats)?

What the heck?

What's the point of focusing on top 30% earner and forget about 70% of workers(entry level wage workers) in Canada.
So what you're suggesting is that only top 30% should be buying a house and pay the income/living support for the rest of 70%?

As westopher said, you don't seem to understand the term "average".
Our education system offers a course called MATHEMATICS, you obviously didn't attend, or failed miserably.

You can't just look at top 30% income and say Canadians should be able to afford a house.

And to be honest, I don't think many top 30% can afford a home in Vancouver.

If you Google it, even high class earners like doctors and lawyers are struggling to afford a house in Vancouver.

Vancouver housing have-nots struggle with sticker shock - The Globe and Mail
Chilliwack doctor worried he?s being priced out of Metro Vancouver housing market | Globalnews.ca

[UFO]

As some have said for better or worse the boat has long since sailed on affordable housing and a return to what we would consider affordable is highly unlikely, an in many cases even undesirable due to other factors that would follow in tow.

I don't know what the official average Vancouver income is and honestly I don't care enough to look it up. I consider our household quite average. Based on what I see, the cars on the road, the people on the street, the people on the bus, the people out and about shopping at whole foods and similar outlets, yeah I'm comfortable saying the average Vancouver income is significantly higher than 33k/yr, at least their lifestyles reflect as much.

People/locals are stressed and complaining about ridiculous home prices but those are the same people lining up 3 days in advance at a presale for those same overpriced homes. The inflated prices are only sustainable if there is a demand for it.

My solution is for home owners to alter their expectations of what their dollar can buy. 500k won't buy you a 2br downtown anymore. 750k won't buy you a detached house in Vancouver proper anymore. Stop wishing for the good ol' days, bitch less, and move on.

I feel like I've said too much on this point, and fully ready to just agree to disagree

[kr4l]

Not sure why you guys are hating on UFO. Maybe his 'average' numbers are a little off from yours but the example you're using of 3x annual salary plus 20% down is totally off for Vancouver. Because the average income in Vancouver is $33k or whatever it is doesn't mean you should be able to purchase a home for $106. Unless I'm totally missing the point to what you guys are debating about

[Tapioca]

Historically, your average schmuck making $15 an hour used to be able to afford a bungalow in East Van. I'm sure many Revsceners and millennials (including myself) grew up in such homes. So when you've been told all your life that all you needed to do was to work hard, save, and get an education in order to have the same life or perhaps move to the West Side, it's not hard to empathize with the shitty situation facing many people.

It's a perfect storm here. It makes me wonder why anyone stays to be honest, unless you're fortunate enough to be gifted property.

[MarkyMark]

Historically you used to be able to have one breadwinner making decent money be able to buy a house and raise a family. They were in no ways rolling in it, and you had to be frugal as fuck but it was doable. My dad did it for many years.

Now, both parties making decent money even without kids can pretty much kiss the idea of owning a house goodbye, and I'm not just talking about East Van either, it's anywhere in the lower mainland.

Obviously the days of one breadwinner is pretty much long gone, but it's pretty horrible when two people making decent coin are told owning property is a pipe dream without getting help.

[Hondaracer]

Like I said before, a mechanic and a receptionist used to be able to afford to basically pick and choose where they lived in the 70's/80's. I know of many families who live in north/south Van who had average careers at best, yet ended up with homes that are approaching 2mill+ these days.

We always talk about easy credit as the downfall of personal debt, and I think it really does have a lot to do with it.

Growing up only very well off families in my area had brand new vehicles, or even "decent" vehicles. Everyone else was driving EF civics and hand me down Buick lesabres etc.

Now a days everyone has a brand new vehicle. And realistically how can you turn down 0% financing over 84 months paying $100 bi weekly?

However, I feel like those payments are still masking the fact that you owe 20-30k over that term. You're in debted to the dealer for 84 months with a 25k debt.

A lot of people I see on my FB feed complaining about housing prices etc. have pictures of them at a dealer buying a brand new vehicle.

Personally if I was in that position I'm rolling the dice on a $5000 civic I can pay off in cash as opposed to taking on a debt I'm paying for the next 5 years. If nothing else then to enstil that mentality that I'm in the black as opposed to constantly chasing the red with my car payments.

[Great68]

Historically (30 years ago when $15 an hour was considered a decent wage that could buy a house in East Van) Greater Vancouver had a population of 1.2 million.

Now it's at 2.6 million.

What did people think would happen when you try to jam a doubling of the population into the same amount of space? Especially considering Greater Van is a very geographically constrained area

[westopher]

Originally Posted by Great68

Historically (30 years ago when $15 an hour was considered a decent wage that could buy a house in East Van) Greater Vancouver had a population of 1.2 million.

Now it's at 2.6 million.

What did people think would happen when you try to jam a doubling of the population into the same amount of space? Especially considering Greater Van is a very geographically constrained area

Maybe the housing doubles x inflation would be a realistic starting point.
Real estate has done probably 5x that.
Heres the thing that pisses me off about real estate investment. All it is, is rich people, buying a bunch of shit they don't need, to keep it away from people who can't afford it at the time, which drives people to push longer to afford it, only for someone to say, well I want more than what you can afford and driving the value up.
People are making millions for simply having money to take away something from someone until they are willing/can afford to pay more. Its the biggest tool in the widening income equality.
The same groups of people likely have investments in the organizations that sell you a dollar right now to pay them back 1.50 over the years.
Its a bad system, and I'd be surprised if their isn't a collapse of it entirely deeper into our lifetimes.

[superdennis]

Great68 said it right..
We can't really compare 30 years ago to now.
Population increased, there's a huge amount of university graduates pumped out every year
Baby boomers children are now adults and moving out.
The demand for housing is there.
On top of that we have immigrants/foreigners moving/buying here.
majority of detatch housing is accounted for in the lower mainland compared to 30 years ago where Richmond was all farm.

[VinnyV]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Historically, your average schmuck making $15 an hour used to be able to afford a bungalow in East Van. I'm sure many Revsceners and millennials (including myself) grew up in such homes. So when you've been told all your life that all you needed to do was to work hard, save, and get an education in order to have the same life or perhaps move to the West Side, it's not hard to empathize with the shitty situation facing many people.

It's a perfect storm here. It makes me wonder why anyone stays to be honest, unless you're fortunate enough to be gifted property.

I can relate. I'm grateful for growing up with the bare essentials.. food on the table and a roof over my head. Didn't have much else my parents were always house poor. My parents being immigrants and having pretty below average english skills had to work some pretty jobs.

My parents always told me to work and study hard and to do better than they did.

They used to take me on drives just west of cambie to look at houses of all the doctor's, lawyers, accountants and working professionals and told me I can buy one if I studied hard enough. I made that my childhood dream.

Fast forward 20 years to today and it's a whole different ball game. It is what it is. That dream has long since disappeared.

I've now moved buying a house into the low priority list and just going to focus on saving and investing, building passive income and try to retire hopefully in my mid to late 40s. . That's now my dream.

[Tapioca]

Westopher: Your comments are really a depiction of what's happening in the developed world in most major cities. The winners are winning big and the losers don't even have a shot at becoming winners.

The sad thing is that while we liketo blame rich people with too much money to burn, we are all responsible. We buy new electronics and new cars ever 2 years. We buy clothes with little regard to quality and where they're made. We hold shares in the major companies of the world in our pension plans, index funds, or individual holdings.

We only have ourselves to blame. The way I see it, you can swim with the current and play the game, or vote with your feet.

[SumAznGuy]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Westopher: Your comments are really a depiction of what's happening in the developed world in most major cities. The winners are winning big and the losers don't even have a shot at becoming winners.

More like this is what has been happening since the beginning of time.
And will continue to happen.
Maybe there will be short term dips and falls, but in the long run, land will continue to go up in value as long as the land is in a desirable location or becomes desirable as the population grows and people need to move further and further out to the burbs.

Speaking of which, where is 4444? He hasn't been online since mid Aug to talk about his hero Garth and preach the fundamentals.

[Spoon]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

The sad thing is that while we liketo blame rich people with too much money to burn, we are all responsible. We buy new electronics and new cars ever 2 years. We buy clothes with little regard to quality and where they're made. We hold shares in the major companies of the world in our pension plans, index funds, or individual holdings.

We only have ourselves to blame. The way I see it, you can swim with the current and play the game, or vote with your feet.

"We" as in you two right? Lots of people don't fall into that category but suffer from the same consequences.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by westopher

Heres the thing that pisses me off about real estate investment. All it is, is rich people, buying a bunch of shit they don't need, to keep it away from people who can't afford it at the time, which drives people to push longer to afford it, only for someone to say, well I want more than what you can afford and driving the value up.

That basically applies to any type of investing, not just real estate. If you hold any sort of investments, that's a pretty hypocritical point of view. I don't mean to single you out, but as mentioned by Tapioca we only have ourselves to blame in this capitalist society where the bottom line is the ultimate determinant.

Its a bad system, and I'd be surprised if their isn't a collapse of it entirely deeper into our lifetimes.

This system has existed in one shape or form since basically the beginning of time. Look at the US collapse in 2008, only to have things recover and be stronger than ever only a few short years later. Politicians, funded by the elite rich people, are short sighted. If the system collapses as you suggest housing prices will be the least of our concerns.

[originalhypa]

Originally Posted by Liquid_o2

As an urban planner, Langley is one of the last places I would want to be from a livability context. I always see Langley as the most "Americanized" sprawl cities in Metro Vancouver. It's just housing subdivision after subdivision, random ALR/rural areas that bisect the subdivisions, strip malls and shopping plazas as far the eye can see, and a crappy old downtown that has been abandoned for big box stores. BLAH. I hate what it has become.

I agree 100%
There is a give and take with the area. My kid's schools are good, but they're hard to get to with the number of folks driving on the same old two lane roads. The density made it impossible for me to get across town early this morning, but it offers huge opportunities for sports to help round out my kids. Volleyball and basketball at the events center, and 9 sheets of ice to go with bike trails and parks. But there are also the numerous strip malls. The Giants are coming to the LEC, and I have no idea where everyone is going to park. The current lot is often full for non event evenings, and the 80 car gravel lot they added isn't going to do a damn thing.

It's not the town I grew up in. My caucasian wife was raised in Richmond and she complains that nothing she remembers as a kid is left. Her childhood farm, her school, friends houses... all gone. It's starting to be that way in Langley now. Fort Langley is basically doubling in size as the old 1/2 acre parcels are being subdivided into "huge" 10,000sq' lots. Again, with all of the old road infrastructure. It's a joke.

[westopher]

Originally Posted by UFO

That basically applies to any type of investing, not just real estate. If you hold any sort of investments, that's a pretty hypocritical point of view. I don't mean to single you out, but as mentioned by Tapioca we only have ourselves to blame in this capitalist society where the bottom line is the ultimate determinant.



This system has existed in one shape or form since basically the beginning of time. Look at the US collapse in 2008, only to have things recover and be stronger than ever only a few short years later. Politicians, funded by the elite rich people, are short sighted. If the system collapses as you suggest housing prices will be the least of our concerns.

Lol since the beginning of time? Are you kidding? Human societies existed before the early 1800s. You seem to think our lifetimes are a lot bigger part of human history than they are.
Don't feel like you are singling me out. It's a conversation, and you are far from disrespectful in disagreeing with me.

[unit]

Originally Posted by UFO

That basically applies to any type of investing, not just real estate. If you hold any sort of investments, that's a pretty hypocritical point of view. I don't mean to single you out, but as mentioned by Tapioca we only have ourselves to blame in this capitalist society where the bottom line is the ultimate determinant.



This system has existed in one shape or form since basically the beginning of time. Look at the US collapse in 2008, only to have things recover and be stronger than ever only a few short years later. Politicians, funded by the elite rich people, are short sighted. If the system collapses as you suggest housing prices will be the least of our concerns.

actually, a lot of those US markets are still reeling from the 2008 collapse. while some have recovered and increased, many markets have never recovered at all.

[minoru_tanaka]

Originally Posted by unit

actually, a lot of those US markets are still reeling from the 2008 collapse. while some have recovered and increased, many markets have never recovered at all.

Still waiting for my tech stocks to recover.....

[meme405]

Originally Posted by minoru_tanaka

Still waiting for my tech stocks to recover.....

Can't tell if joking or serious. If you own a tech stock that still hasn't recovered since 2008, I'd say it won't ever recover. Lol.

I don't know what you are holding onto, but it must be like the AOL of this decade...lol

[Presto]

OMG. The suite below my sister's suite in Yaletown just sold for 30k over asking for 730k. This is a 720sqft 1bd/1br/den condo with 1 parking spot.

[roopi]

Originally Posted by MrPhreak

In the Vancouver market I think it makes absolute sense to sell without a realtor. You have a huge market pool, and it is a sellers market. There is basically no work for realtors aside from hiring a photo guy and slapping a description together for MLS.[/I]

This isn't Calgary. Take a look at some of the listings. The photos are shit (if there are any photos other then 1 exterior shot).