Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[wingies]

Need some advice, my parents have their house listed right now by New Coast Realty (I know, save the comments, contract is over by end of April).

But recently I was looking around, and I saw it was listed on craigslist, but not by New Coast, by some dude called Tony Yuen from Sutton. My parents have never even met this Tony guy and they never even contracted him to sell our house. New Coast said they don't know anything about it either.

[Bonka]

MLS reciprocity allows agents to advertise listings by other agents and brokerages. Think of agents websites that have a search feature. That's reciprocity. Ultimately, it's another way to advertise a listing to a bigger audience.

[Veleno]

Originally Posted by yoursyumiko

Thinking of buying in New Westminster, but I never lived there before.
What do you guys think about the area?

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R21562...erty_click=map

Particularly this area.

My wife and I bought last year in the the Interurban building across the street that you see in the first picture.

Pros
- Central to rest of GVRD
- Access to transit, especially if you're commuting downtown because you don't have to change (and queue for!) trains at Commercial like you would coming from Brentwood. Evo carshare is also coming to New West in May.
- Walkable, vibrant area including Westminster Pier Park, Front Street Mews, River Market, etc. Things still close a bit early though.
- Diverse community in terms of ethnicity, age, socioeconomic status, etc. New West has homelessness just like the rest of Vancouver, but it seems like the local government has really made an effort to provide shelter housing. I prefer this to NIMBYism. This effort to reduce street homelessness seems to in turn reduce panhandling and visible street drug use.

Cons
- Uphill if you need to go to uptown New West, but you could just take an Evo carshare soon and most things are available downtown anyways.
- Columbia street can be noisy, and I'd imagine it's similar or worse facing Front Street because it's the truck route. On the upside, trains will stop whistling at the crossings very shortly.
- Traffic? I rarely drive during rush hour, but if I do it takes 45mins - 1 hr to/from downtown vs. 30mins without traffic.
- A lot of new towers will be built in the coming years and although I'm not looking forward to the construction traffic and noise, I do support increased supply and density.

[nah]

Home Capital shares plunge after mortgage lender seeks $2 billion credit line as deposits decline | Financial Post

Can any explain what the repercussions will be?

I've read that this will finally pop the bubble, but not so sure I trust that site.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...s-most-history

[CRS]

Originally Posted by nah

Home Capital shares plunge after mortgage lender seeks $2 billion credit line as deposits decline | Financial Post

Can any explain what the repercussions will be?

I've read that this will finally pop the bubble, but not so sure I trust that site.

Canada's Housing Bubble Explodes As Its Biggest Mortgage Lender Crashes Most In History | Zero Hedge

Unless it's one of the big 5 banks where this happens, the bubble won't burst because the one (if not more) of the big banks will just pick up the mortgages for a bargain price.

[Bonka]

Are mortgages going into default? From what I know client confidence is causing a run on the bank the mortgage assets are unrelated.

[subordinate]

Originally Posted by Veleno

My wife and I bought last year in the the Interurban building across the street that you see in the first picture.


Cons
- Uphill if you need to go to uptown New West, but you could just take an Evo carshare soon and most things are available downtown anyways.
- Columbia street can be noisy, and I'd imagine it's similar or worse facing Front Street because it's the truck route. On the upside, trains will stop whistling at the crossings very shortly.
- Traffic? I rarely drive during rush hour, but if I do it takes 45mins - 1 hr to/from downtown vs. 30mins without traffic.
- A lot of new towers will be built in the coming years and although I'm not looking forward to the construction traffic and noise, I do support increased supply and density.

I'm looking as well but who told you the whistling at these crossings with be gone shortly?

The only way for the whistling to be gone is if New West ponies up a lot of money for insurance reasons.

Which is rare...but happens. Heck in North Van, when those new towers were built, I thought they would have done with it too. But my buddy lives in one and still there. Food for thought.

And those tracks are used by a couple of railways. So train noise throughout the night I figure. Guess it's not that bad, if you don't really have any complaints about it. Good to know. I figured it would be shaking the windows from time to time

And traffic is nightmarish during rush hours. The semi truck traffic trying to save on the port man fees, going along columbia to the patullo is brutal. Then you got cars who take side streets to avoid it. And there's always something happening on that stretch.

[subordinate]

Originally Posted by Bonka

Are mortgages going into default? From what I know client confidence is causing a run on the bank the mortgage assets are unrelated.

From the jist of the quick reading I did...people were withdrawling alot of money from their HCG savings account and some big institutional investor wanted a 2 bill LOC, which is at 10% interest or something, as a guarantee....

The loan facility, combined with Home Trust’s current available liquidity, would give Home Trust access to more than $3.5 billion in total funding, more than twice the amount of outstanding high interest saving account balances, the company said.

As part of the agreement, Home Trust would be required to pay a non-refundable commitment fee of $100 million and make an initial draw of $1 billion. The interest rate on outstanding balances would be 10 per cent, and the standby fee on undrawn funds would be 2.5 per cent, Home Capital added.

Gloyn said this translates to an effective interest rate of 22.5 per cent on the first $1 billion, declining to 15 per cent if fully utilized.

http://business.financialpost.com/ne...posits-decline


As a result of the lack of confidence and big hit, this stock took a dump.

Should HCG go under, big banks would buy their mortgages, I guess? It'd be interesting to see how many are good mortgages the banks would want to buy and not, since HCG canned some mortgage brokers recently for fraud.

A collapse of the market. I doubt it. HCG only owns about 4.5% of the mortgage market, to put things in perspective. The bigger banks have a more stringent screening policy...I hope.

[subordinate]

Originally Posted by jcmaz

EDIT: How could I forget the rail trains!!!! Although the city banned trains from sounding the horn at night, they still sound off at 2AM in morning. I'm a heavy sleeper so I don't really care. Skytrain sounds could be annoying too.

Last but not least. New West is/was affordable given the shitty wages in this city.

Edit: Looks like you guys were right. http://vancouversun.com/news/local-n...get-more-sleep

Guess they are blocking access to those crossings so Trains won't have to whistle. Hmm..these buildings look better now.

Puchmayr, head of the city’s railway advisory committee, said the whistle cessation program is not cheap. The city put aside $3 million to fund the construction of barriers and other mechanical means to prevent uncontrolled intrusions onto the railways. Southern Railway, which owns the crossings in Queensborough and the West End, has contributed to the project

I guess we'll see what happens.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by nah

Home Capital shares plunge after mortgage lender seeks $2 billion credit line as deposits decline | Financial Post

Can any explain what the repercussions will be?

I've read that this will finally pop the bubble, but not so sure I trust that site.

Canada's Housing Bubble Explodes As Its Biggest Mortgage Lender Crashes Most In History | Zero Hedge

It's not HC itself the problem, but the underlying reason why it had to go rogue.

I was following the story a bit earlier and it traces back to fraudulent transactions by a group of brokers. Then they fired their long time CEO and that was last year.

Fast forward to today, what happened today was that the rabbit hole was much deeper and the group can no longer sustain itself. The 2B credit line that they took didn't make any sense, but they had to take it to maintain itself. Let's make no mistake, I think HC is going down and the CL interest rate just proved the theory.

Simply put, any interest rate beyond 8% is unserviceable, and they are paying a whopping 22.5% on the first 1B, and 15% if they take the whole 2B. So they just dug themselves an even harder hole to climb out from.

The lender is not stupid. The loan is secured by HC's portfolio and I'm sure the terms are extremely favorable to the lender (meaning they get to cherrypick). They are probably already going through the portfolio to see which ones to pick.

The remainder mortgages would be those extremely toxic ones that big banks wouldn't touch it with a 10ft pole.

The question now is how many of those actually exist in the market and assuming there is a firesale on them, would the effect ripple through the market? Tens to hundreds of units... not much... thousands of units? You can bet it would create a shock/panic in the market.

[nah]

I've been watching the market and 2 houses that recently sold for close to $900,000 each (North Delta) are now on the market as rentals. They look to be bought by the same person as the houses are on the same street and the ads look the same. I'm going to assume they didn't pay cash for these, so these would be someone speculating and possibly over leveraging themselves. I hope the market crashes and these type of speculators lose their shirt.

House 1: https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/rds/apa/6080291855.html
House 2: https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/6079943995.html

[blkgsr]

jesus those sold for $900K? fuck me

[Hondaracer]

It it speculating if you put down enough that rent covers the mortgage?

[unit]

this is exactly the type of scenario where renting pays off compared to owning.
buying a place for 900k or renting for just 2300 a month? 5-600k condos rent for as much in some areas.

[Dharminder]

Originally Posted by nah

I've been watching the market and 2 houses that recently sold for close to $900,000 each (North Delta) are now on the market as rentals. They look to be bought by the same person as the houses are on the same street and the ads look the same. I'm going to assume they didn't pay cash for these, so these would be someone speculating and possibly over leveraging themselves. I hope the market crashes and these type of speculators lose their shirt.

House 1: https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/rds/apa/6080291855.html
House 2: https://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/apa/6079943995.html

I could be completely wrong but I don't think its the same person that owns both and my reason is nothing concrete I have used someone on my streets ad in the past or parts of it.

No expert but 900k in north delta is a pretty good price considering assessed value according to government is 915 & 924k. Decent size lot which is hard to come across
900k x 20%= 180k
ball park 3300 mortgage a month
Out of pocket for owner $700 + a month not bad if you have extra cash lying around.

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by unit

this is exactly the type of scenario where renting pays off compared to owning.
buying a place for 900k or renting for just 2300 a month? 5-600k condos rent for as much in some areas.

Even if renting a house was a better value, I'm not sure if I would want to rent one for $2300. If you need a house because you have a family, security of tenure is the most important thing. Throwing $2300 into rent for a house when I could probably own it for another $1000 per month may not make a lot of sense to families who want to set down roots.

If you're renting a condo for $2300 per month, you're probably in a much different place in your life - you are single, mobile, and want the condo lifestyle.

[Dharminder]

[QUOTE=Tapioca;8838319]Even if renting a house was a better value, I'm not sure if I would want to rent one for $2300. If you need a house because you have a family, security of tenure is the most important thing. Throwing $2300 into rent for a house when I could probably own it for another $1000 per month may not make a lot of sense to families who want to set down roots.

I think the problem is not being able to pay another $2300 or another 1k, but coming up with the down payment. Anyone looking for a full house is usually a family of 3-6 people(parents, kids, grandparents) and being able to save that kind of cash is difficult

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Even if renting a house was a better value, I'm not sure if I would want to rent one for $2300. If you need a house because you have a family, security of tenure is the most important thing. Throwing $2300 into rent for a house when I could probably own it for another $1000 per month may not make a lot of sense to families who want to set down roots.

If you're renting a condo for $2300 per month, you're probably in a much different place in your life - you are single, mobile, and want the condo lifestyle.

You have to save for down payment. Which isn't easy in Vancouver. If you have 0% down payment the interest rate is going to skyrocket for you.

[Hondaracer]

There will always be plenty of people out there that made a bunch of mistakes along the way with 3-4 kids that have shitty/no jobs and live cheque to cheque but need a house to store all their garbage

The amount of acquaintances I know who basically just "had a kid" with almost no planning and no savings and roll with the mentality of "oh well, we'll figure it out" is astounding.

My fiancé and I are by no means wealthy, but we are far better off than most these people financially, and if one day it just happened that "whoops, were having a kid!" I'd be fucking devistated, as in, my life is fucking doneeeeee. Yet people approach it with this carefree attitude lol..

If you've got a kid or two and a car payment, you have no right in crying over not being able to "buy a home" imo.

[hud 91gt]

Thats funny. Had to buy one of those "tests" the other day. First time in my life I actually wasnt scared in that situation. Its happened a few times. Getting older?more financially stable? Women I actually want to be with? Who knows...

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

You have to save for down payment. Which isn't easy in Vancouver. If you have 0% down payment the interest rate is going to skyrocket for you.

The scenario was based on strictly owning vs renting and the value of one or the other. If you don't have a down payment, you wouldn't have a choice.

Many people don't have that choice and I empathize with them. However, if you do have that choice because you have a sufficient down payment or equity, I would argue that renting the house is still a questionable choice.

[kr4l]

All you guys are doing is speculating and assuming everything and basing your opinions on that. In the end, no one gives a shit if you rent or buy, or if you think the guy got ripped off or not etc etc. He's obviously got a plan that, even if it's something "you" wouldn't do.

He obviously has money and is able to do it, and he's got a plan. No one does it to lose money. More risk more reward.

[hypediss]

Originally Posted by Hehe

It's not HC itself the problem, but the underlying reason why it had to go rogue.

I was following the story a bit earlier and it traces back to fraudulent transactions by a group of brokers. Then they fired their long time CEO and that was last year.

Fast forward to today, what happened today was that the rabbit hole was much deeper and the group can no longer sustain itself. The 2B credit line that they took didn't make any sense, but they had to take it to maintain itself. Let's make no mistake, I think HC is going down and the CL interest rate just proved the theory.

Simply put, any interest rate beyond 8% is unserviceable, and they are paying a whopping 22.5% on the first 1B, and 15% if they take the whole 2B. So they just dug themselves an even harder hole to climb out from.

The lender is not stupid. The loan is secured by HC's portfolio and I'm sure the terms are extremely favorable to the lender (meaning they get to cherrypick). They are probably already going through the portfolio to see which ones to pick.

The remainder mortgages would be those extremely toxic ones that big banks wouldn't touch it with a 10ft pole.

The question now is how many of those actually exist in the market and assuming there is a firesale on them, would the effect ripple through the market? Tens to hundreds of units... not much... thousands of units? You can bet it would create a shock/panic in the market.

Gets juicier: Crashing Canadian Mortgage Lender Bailed-Out By 321,000 Retired Ontario Healthcare Workers | Zero Hedge

HOOPP President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Keohane sits on Home Capital’s board and is a shareholder. Home Capital’s external spokesman Boyd Erman declined to comment.

[yoursyumiko]

Thanks for the insight on New Westminster condo.
Any thoughts on Burquitlam area (closed to skytrain)? New condo are in similar price range as New West.

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by yoursyumiko

Thanks for the insight on New Westminster condo.
Any thoughts on Burquitlam area (closed to skytrain)? New condo are in similar price range as New West.

We used to live on the south side of Lougheed right across from the mall on government/cardston

I actually loved the area and had a great time living there. The south side of Lougheed has zero future development planned so we were somewhat immune to the noise and construction. However, in burquitlam you're going to feel the full brunt of the future redevelopment of Lougheed mall (20+ towers in a 30 year span) traffic is going to become an absolute nightmare and getting onto the highway or south of Lougheed in north road will take forever.

What I liked about the area and Lougheed mall was that it was essentially dead all the time. That is going to change 1000% over the next few years. And far as as I could tell, the majority of people buying up the city of Lougheed developments, and the other surrounding towers were the type that let their dog shit in the elevators, etc