Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[noclue]

Originally Posted by godwin

If people really want to invest.. invest in the Bay Area.. (the prices are in line with Vancouver).. the industry is way more diversified than in BC.

What part of the bay area you invested in? I've been looking at alameda, oakland(non-ghetto) and San Jose.

If you want to invest but dont want to deal with the hassle of US laws, I recommend northern BC.

[godwin]

Right smacking in SF (Mission District) and Menlo Park. I bought the first one during the dotcom crash, then upgraded later.. the price has been buoying up ever since, not as insane as in Vancouver but I am happy. Rents cover mortgages (nearly done), utilities and taxes + gives me an apartment to stay in SF. Never have problems renting out (at least 3 names on the waitlist every month ever since 2001), infrastructures get upgraded by tenants eg 10Gb Ethernet in each room etc. Nearly all tenants are acquaintances working at the large firms.

I rather deal with US Laws (just hire a lawyer, plenty in BC who specialise in this, not only in Vancouver but Kelowna, Nelson etc etc; 4 signatures a year) than deal with the BS in Northern BC to be honest. Most of the BS cannot be enforced by law or regulations. Good honest help is really hard to find in Northern BC. I am talking from Prince George out west to Prince Rupert.. East to Edmonton. No thanks a gagillion. Just say you have meth'ed out versions Gridlock and Dino being recommended to take care of large developments..

Artists I semi tolerate, with full blown druggies that don't know which day of the week it is.. ugh.

Oh and the high Cdn$ which is forecast to slip with all the commodities hitting low.. as I say.. go South for best returns.

Originally Posted by noclue

What part of the bay area you invested in? I've been looking at alameda, oakland(non-ghetto) and San Jose.

If you want to invest but dont want to deal with the hassle of US laws, I recommend northern BC.

[dinosaur]

Originally Posted by godwin

Just say you have meth'ed out versions Gridlock and Dino being recommended to take care of large developments..

best thing i have read all day!!

[godwin]

Oh stories of bunkers in yards, gas and electric lines tapped etc. They are all true!! Getting a proper plumber /electrician etc is a pain, you are SOL (mind as well bull doze the house) when a pipe burst and your tenant is clueless. People are bold enough to do illegal stuff on properties right NEXT to RCMP detachments.

I don't like cussing in posts.. the only way I will ever get re up north is getting a ranch/ fishing lodge with a live in family whom I trust.

Unless you are living up north to be hands on.. I don't recommend Northern BC. I much prefer south of the line, west of the Rockies.

I come to the conclusion is it all comes down to diversity and common goal. People in California, despite all the fiscal problems.. do want to make their lives better.. and there are plenty of industries and startups to support their dreams.. I am not so sure about Northern BC and at times not sure even in the Lower Mainland.

Originally Posted by dinosaur

best thing i have read all day!!

[dinosaur]

oh man, I hear ya....I use to travel around BC a lot when I was an archaeologist and would stay for long periods of time....some places....wow.

I wouldn't invest up there either. It may be a better financial investment, but it would keep me up at night, lol!

[godwin]

I think mines and forests are the only safe carefree investments up north, guarded by plenty of bears, cougars and occasional rabid racoons and mooses. Way too much problems even with a concrete slab in the middle of town.. and people on this board are making fun of Detroit!

Originally Posted by dinosaur

but it would keep me up at night, lol!

[4444]

Originally Posted by godwin

I don't think the Bay Area is that overheated especially compared to YVR. Rents are a lot more than YVR, the townhouse size of 1200sq we rent out for $4-5k.. the return is a heck lot better than any YVR ones. The fact is SF is a lot of diversified economically than Vancouver.. actually in that sense even Seattle is better that way, considering they can't find enough people to fill at the Boeing plant and SGL plant.

With Cdn$ still relatively strong, I would say abandon the YVR focus, and repatriate the money when CDN gets even weaker.

Comparing sf prices to yvr is fine and well, and is a better investment, but u've just opened up the whole US as an investment zone, in which case, there are better options.

Investing in the US as a Canadian is fraught with issues, and Cali especially is a tough place due to its tax regimes and need for cash (property taxes are super high in Cali)

I'll agree, I'd buy in sf over yvr, but only if I lived there, the risk reward just isn't there as a foreign buyer (unless ur an all cash baller)

[godwin]

BTW.. developer buys ALR land, put on bad fill on the land, 5 years later say the land is contaminated.. viola! land get removed from ALR land. Ever wonder how there are townhouses near the truck crossing?

Originally Posted by Gridlock

So we have the ALR, the Agricultural Land Reserve to keep fields and such from being at the mercy of a developers whim. In reality, another step before a developer can plant condos instead of tomatoes, but thats not the point here.

[dinosaur]

My friend bought a house there...right on 0B ave. Interesting area.

Spent over $800,000 on the place....you can touch the neighbours house from her bathroom window.

[godwin]

That's crazy.. considering a 4 acres ALR land is 1.4mill right next to those town houses.

Originally Posted by dinosaur

My friend bought a house there...right on 0B ave. Interesting area.

Spent over $800,000 on the place....you can touch the neighbours house from her bathroom window.

[dinosaur]

Functionally, it is a terrible area...if the border is lined up, you can't really get to their place and it has been one big construction pit since they bought 3 years ago. City was suppose to build a school, but now that is on hold.

It is a small area slammed with as many houses and townhouses as possible. All young people families. All white. Totally children corn creepy.

[minoru_tanaka]

Originally Posted by dinosaur

oh man, I hear ya....I use to travel around BC a lot when I was an archaeologist and would stay for long periods of time....some places....wow.

I have a large bone that needs to be examined

[dinosaur]

Originally Posted by minoru_tanaka

I have a large bone that needs to be examined

cool. let me get my pickaxe.

[bing]

Originally Posted by dinosaur

cool. let me get my pickaxe.

you will probably need a microscope too.

[dinosaur]

[minoru_tanaka]

Originally Posted by bing

you will probably need a microscope too.

I guess in your family microscopic still equals large

[Gridlock]

Originally Posted by minoru_tanaka

I guess in your family microscopic still equals large

Nope. That didn't work.

We're just gonna have to leave it that you have a microscopic penis because this thread is about real estate, not your embarrassingly small member.

[minoru_tanaka]

Originally Posted by Gridlock

Nope. That didn't work.

We're just gonna have to leave it that you have a microscopic penis because this thread is about real estate, not your embarrassingly small member.

Nope. That doesn't work.......................

[Roach]

Originally Posted by godwin

BTW.. developer buys ALR land, put on bad fill on the land, 5 years later say the land is contaminated.. viola! land get removed from ALR land. Ever wonder how there are townhouses near the truck crossing?

Funny you should mention this area. I lived on 174 & 4th for 13 years until 2006 Lots of farms and ranches in the area. My dad was behind the push to rezone the Douglas area. Once rezoned we sold to a larger developer.

That project was a long time coming. Since the mid 90's. It was never zoned ALR and there was no contamination of land involved. Although that's an interesting theory on how to re-zone. Good idea! Lol.

Kev

[godwin]

I am sure if it is just a theory, there won't be the need for an ALR snitch line and soil watch to "monitor".

Basically that's what RE agents up and down 8th ave are promising.

Originally Posted by Roach

That project was a long time coming. Since the mid 90's. It was never zoned ALR and there was no contamination of land involved. Although that's an interesting theory on how to re-zone. Good idea! Lol.

[Roach]

That's interesting. Just not true of the current development in Douglas.

Kev

[LiquidTurbo]

Another propaganda article?

Strong July home sales in Vancouver, Toronto show market picking up steam - The Globe and Mail

[Gridlock]

Well, I read somewhere where the numbers are getting skewed. I have no proof on any of this.

The compare current sales to 'cleansed' previous data. So: I list a house for sale in July, sell it in August with a close in September. Financing fell through and the seller took the house off the market.

Counts as a listing in July, and a sale in August.

Next year, when I compare this year to last, the data has been purged of that sale as it didn't go through, so when I have an actual sale I have one less to compare to the year before, therefore the increase in sales transaction..the change is higher because shocker! I'm not comparing apples to apples.

That's just one of the ways that you can cleanse data to show the story you want to tell.

Averages are another. No one talks median numbers which I find to be a far more accurate portrayal of data.

Here is a total bullshit sample set that I made up. These are the houses for sale in Gridville:

500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
5000000

So you ask me, "what are most of the houses going for in Gridville?" I say, "500k"

You ask me what is the average price of the houses in Gridville?
"704k"

You ask me what is the median price(meaning, half the houses are above this number, and half are below this number)
"500k"

There is NO 704k price on that list, but I'm now answering a question with it. That number is meaningless in the real world that I made above. I can't spend 704k. It does not exist. I can spend 500k, or 5m. Those are my options.

I have invented a market for the $700,000 house out of NOTHING.

And if all else fails, I'll do what statisticians do best...change the parameters of my reporting. If median numbers show a better result, I'll use that. Average is better? Sure. Let's use that.

Or! If things truly tank, I'll start talking up the limited decreases.

Now, in terms of the REB numbers for both Vancouver and Toronto, I think they actually can't exagerate those kinds of numbers. I've seen the anecdotal evidence in my own neighborhood. Houses for sale everywhere and selling.

I don't know what the answer is. My absolute guess:

one) people like to lock in on cheap rates. I don't get it myself, as I don't want to buy at a high price that sustains with cheap rates because that price isn't going to go down when the rates increase

two) People are making the final move. Those that want out are getting out now, and they are selling to the people from one.

three) discount. People are seeing that they are getting a break in price from a few years ago. REB numbers show that 'average' prices are down. After 9 years of accelerated growth, they see it as catching a break.

Honestly, I don't think two even applies, as I doubt people are moving into rentals. So its rate magic. Pure and simple. A lot of 1, with a bit of 3.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Gridlock

one) people like to lock in on cheap rates. I don't get it myself, as I don't want to buy at a high price that sustains with cheap rates because that price isn't going to go down when the rates increase

excellent analysis - 5/5 stars. i could not have put it better myself, so thank you for saving me the hassle of responding to the lies the media here presents.

and, i think it's number 1, as you say - ppl are dumb, they don't know how a fixed income is valued and what parameters affect it's value - they see 'rates are going up, b/c RE doesn't go down, that means payments go up - oh shit, BUY BUY BUY'

the average person, and the majority, are idiots - don't be surprised by their actions.

[Graeme S]

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