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Vancouver Off-Topic / Current EventsThe off-topic forum for Vancouver, funnies, non-auto centered discussions, WORK SAFE. While the rules are more relaxed here, there are still rules. Please refer to sticky thread in this forum.
So basically, this thread has been a rehash of the same thesis: the real estate bubble in Vancouver is going to burst and a bunch of people are going to be screwed. Yawn.
The question is: what is everyone going to do when the crash hits? Cash in yourselves? Or just laugh at everyone for their foolishness? Is the crash going to change your views about Vancouver in the long-term, or are you still going to move to greener pastures and tell everyone that you lived through the great Vancouver real estate crash of 2014, 2015, etc? Posted via RS Mobile
So basically, this thread has been a rehash of the same thesis: the real estate bubble in Vancouver is going to burst and a bunch of people are going to be screwed. Yawn.
The question is: what is everyone going to do when the crash hits? Cash in yourselves? Or just laugh at everyone for their foolishness? Is the crash going to change your views about Vancouver in the long-term, or are you still going to move to greener pastures and tell everyone that you lived through the great Vancouver real estate crash of 2014, 2015, etc? Posted via RS Mobile
I would say its more a discussion of RE in general. So far, apart from a brief discussion on minoru_tanaka's member, its been a positive thread where pretty much anything can be discussed about RE.
My outlook on Vancouver is really unchanged. I think its a pretty place where a lot of people make some really bad choices to play next to water.
I don't want to laugh at all at a crash. If it does fall, its going to take out a lot of people with it. Housing itself holds a lot of people's net worth. Housing itself holds a lot of people's employment. Take out one piece on that house of cards, and a lot of people get screwed.
I think its been a colossal fuck up on part of our so called "conservative" gov't. A true let down. There is nothing at ALL that is remotely conservative regarding the housing market decisions that had zero down, 40 year mortgages. There is nothing conservative about a population that is RIGHT NOW, TODAY running around our city buying up what they can get their hands on at prices that are the close second highest** that they have ever been. And they think they are getting a discount. Completely lost on the fact that the price they pay, and the cost to borrow are so closely linked, they are the same thing.
**the highest being of course, '07 right before the fall in prices that created the so called 'discount now' so 5 years...only have to go back 5 years to find an example.
For so long, the realtors have had an unfettered access to create the message that housing is on fire, and if you don't buy now, you never will. And it was true. Housing went up. Hits a number that is fucking insane. And then went higher. Ticks down a bit and fucks a bunch of people...but don't worry, NOW you can REALLY buy in.
Have you ever walked around a condo showroom? Touch the kitchen. This is the shit they are using to sell it...and its built out of pressboard. You can't even give me plywood cabinets that will last the life of the home for my infinitely practical 450k for 900 square feet.
Give your head a shake!
They are lying to you to sell you something that you can't afford.
Oh! You can make the mortgage..sure. But can you afford to show up to closing with a check to sell your condo?
That's right, you lost money on the place, AND you need to show up with a check to pay another realtor to dry hump you again.
Carpentry and Finish
•Our door height is an elegant 7 feet rather than the standard 6 feet 8 inches
•Extra-large closets
•Bedroom closets have wood built-in shelves rather than wire
•Windows are Low-E with screens
•Windows have 2 inch venetian blinds
•Windows are cased all sides
•High-end moulding package
•An attractive fireplace included
Right by traintracks doesn't matter as long as you can host NBA players that will dig your "high-end mouldings" Really how much moulding does a postage stamp need.
Carpentry and Finish
•Our door height is an elegant 7 feet rather than the standard 6 feet 8 inches
•Extra-large closets
•Bedroom closets have wood built-in shelves rather than wire
•Windows are Low-E with screens
•Windows have 2 inch venetian blinds
•Windows are cased all sides
•High-end moulding package
•An attractive fireplace included
Right by traintracks doesn't matter as long as you can host NBA players that will dig your "high-end mouldings" Really how much moulding does a postage stamp need.
My only concern in the whole situation is CMHC
We'll do anything to have you buy here instead of renting elsewhere.
Included for free: the joy of a commute. The gift of time!
Yet another chance for Shaw Cable to sell you into a house.
This story has nothing to do with:
realtors
development
sales
It has everything to do with:
banks
lenders
And ultimately, the effect that tighter regulations on the money supply will ultimately have on mortgage rates.
So, who does Global interview?
A developer sales agent, a mortgage broker.
What do they talk about?
What more incentive do you need to buy RIGHT FUCKING NOW AT THESE LOW LOW PRICES! MORTGAGES SO LOW WE'RE PRACTICALLY GIVING THEM AWAY!
Act now, and get a free toaster with every insane house you buy!
Sorry..got a little jazzed up on that and broke into my wacky inflatable arm flailing tube man routine.
Couldn't interview a bank, or look at a graph that shows the interest rates increasing. No, that's cool Global. If I actually wanted the facts, I'll ask the Real Estate Board....
Yet another chance for Shaw Cable to sell you into a house.
This story has nothing to do with:
realtors
development
sales
It has everything to do with:
banks
lenders
And ultimately, the effect that tighter regulations on the money supply will ultimately have on mortgage rates.
So, who does Global interview?
A developer sales agent, a mortgage broker.
What do they talk about?
What more incentive do you need to buy RIGHT FUCKING NOW AT THESE LOW LOW PRICES! MORTGAGES SO LOW WE'RE PRACTICALLY GIVING THEM AWAY!
Act now, and get a free toaster with every insane house you buy!
Sorry..got a little jazzed up on that and broke into my wacky inflatable arm flailing tube man routine.
Couldn't interview a bank, or look at a graph that shows the interest rates increasing. No, that's cool Global. If I actually wanted the facts, I'll ask the Real Estate Board....
Sad, but I have no idea what's going on locally as I just can't watch the local news here, it's too painful... Deb hope doesn't help that fact, either
BBC.co.uk for me, and greaterfool.ca for my real estate movings
It will be interesting to see what happens to 5 yr government bond rates in the next few weeks. If it does cause mortgage rates to increase 20 basis points or so. That puts the 5 year fixed rate to about 4%. A 1% rate increase can significantly decrease purchasing power on homes.
I used to watch Global at 11 with the hot blond and little sports guy more for the fact that they were entertaining more than in depth news.
And I'm ok with that. Not everything needs to be Deep Throat in a parking garage.
I started getting mad with the stories about rentals. It's one thing to have a puff piece, its another to have local info pieces(man died, car accident, what have you) but its another to start one siding a story.
And there was one woman that was crying that she was getting kicked out of her place for owing rent, and she couldn't find another cheap rental in Kelowna and she had a special needs son.
On the surface, your like...dude, your landlord is a dick.
I look at that and say, "honey, you had a cheap rental...and you couldn't make it" Your landlord is probably all over helping you out, but you add up a few months of rent and some utilities combined with some crappy furniture and you get a nice little mixture for a midnight run.
I'd feel bad, but I'd kick yo ass out too.
And I really couldn't stand to watch their shit at that point.
Have you ever walked around a condo showroom? Touch the kitchen. This is the shit they are using to sell it...and its built out of pressboard. You can't even give me plywood cabinets that will last the life of the home for my infinitely practical 450k for 900 square feet.
singly family dwelling developers also use this pressboard shiet, and they built houses fast, for $120/ per sq ft using cheap immigrant labour. The EI guys use this stuff and then leave it open during the rain and i know there's going to be moisture problems down the road.
But ohh well, if it's hidden behind drywall and paint you wont see it. sorry if i'm ranting but there's too many shoddy contractors undercutting quotes and building crap out there.
I'm renting out the condo I paid too much on right now. Might as well have someone else pay my mortgage. That's the plan, unless there's an exodus out of Vancouver.
__________________
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Never trust a property manager (NSFW)
I was home sick for a large chunk of last week and happened to see this in my buildings sister tower.
Long story short this condo is a rental property for somebody that lives out of town. Property manager was making a little extra $ on the side by renting it (and other properties) out by the day to porn photographers. Who knows what else is going on in these places.
For those that get all stoked on a couple topless asians I'd like to point out that the girls are holding rainbow towels and these photos were from Aug 1st so there is a good chance they are trannies. LOL
For me there has to be:
1. limited land by geography
2. good industrial + infrastructure base / employment opportunity for tertiary educated
Just above 2 alone you don't get that many options.. NYC, Boston + Cambridge area has long passed SF in affordability, Seattle is quite close to SF.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4444
Comparing sf prices to yvr is fine and well, and is a better investment, but u've just opened up the whole US as an investment zone, in which case, there are better options.
Investing in the US as a Canadian is fraught with issues, and Cali especially is a tough place due to its tax regimes and need for cash (property taxes are super high in Cali)
I'll agree, I'd buy in sf over yvr, but only if I lived there, the risk reward just isn't there as a foreign buyer (unless ur an all cash baller)
Why would you have to move if there is a real estate crash? Unless your vocation / job is tied to the industry and/or personally overleveraged I don't see why you would need to.
Honestly I don't think that many "agents" will go broke either, since a lot of them moon light as RE agents to start.. Teachers, BCIT instructors etc etc They just return to their unionized jobs and not renew their licenses.
I think most of you guys were too young to remember the great crash in the 90s? There weren't any fire sale, it was the transaction decrease was really significant.
With the current macro condition, I can't really see the credit market to be reduced to the levels of the early 90s, even if all the gov stop their QE programs... unless both Germany and China economies both croak at the same time.. however instead of Fortes fortuna adiuvat it is now Fortissimo fortuna adiuvat, especially for the majority of the demographic of Revscene. But even so, if you don't do the minimums (ie 0 down etc etc), you should be okay. The thing is this crash is not a natural disaster, just like anything monetary it tends to be cyclical. Especially if you take a 40 year mortgage, I am sure you will see a few up and downs throughout the whole term. For me, I prefer mine to be ~10, so now is just not attractive for me.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tapioca
The question is: what is everyone going to do when the crash hits? Cash in yourselves? Or just laugh at everyone for their foolishness? Is the crash going to change your views about Vancouver in the long-term, or are you still going to move to greener pastures and tell everyone that you lived through the great Vancouver real estate crash of 2014, 2015, etc? Posted via RS Mobile
Well, lets talk about those agents. Let's see how they make out.
Agents themselves: Sure, some moonlight. Don't worry, you don't know them because they don't sell shit. They 'moonlight' until they realize that to be successful in an industry where everyone knows 10 realtors, they need to drink the kool-aid and dive into it. They need to prostitute themselves to everyone they know, and then start getting to know everyone else they see. You can't do that behind a desk for another company.
So then there is the group of people that jumped in.
To get into slinging house, you go into the hole about $10k, assuming you make a sale at the 6 month mark. The office starts taxing your ass about $400-$500 per month from day 1 whether you are there full-time or part-time, and whether you make a sale or pick your nose. The RE board takes $80/month for insurance....and those pretty phat houses with the 3 million plus price tag(you know, crack shacks)? Yeah, they don't call up newbs. So you sell a friends condo....at a discount...and then someone they know has a $300k condo that you sell. And if you are lucky, you get to shift between 6 and 8 of those things to gross $40k a year....but you then get to take off expenses.
Point is...the 80/20 rule applies here big time. The 80 that have spent up a fortune to try to get some of what the 20% are making aren't just going to say, "f*** it". Nope, they will ride it to the abysmal end to recoup money.
Then the next problem comes in...people that are underwater. They exist, right now, today. They are getting NO press. Sure, maybe they are good on their mortgage..but the downpayment is gone and to have a realtor sell it, they need to pay in more.
The dream of home ownership in this case, has resulted in a loss.
I saw it when I was selling my mom's condo. He looks at a graph...here's what you were worth 4/5 years ago..here you are today. If you bought in 2007/08 with minimal down, and its mostly mortgage...guess what? Yeah...have fun selling.
Try being the real estate agent that has to look at that little family and say, "well, my commission is 7% on the first 100k and 3% on the remainder." Plus a notary/lawyer and a fee to close out the mortgage, and so on.
Picture a world where that cute little family scrimped, saved and borrowed from parents to buy...and could barely afford kids/cars/house while living there. Where is that extra pool of money coming from?
Well, they aren't going to be consumers, that's for sure, so retail is down. They aren't selling old to buy a new house, so starts are down. For sure existing houses aren't selling at the shit prices, so we don't need lawyers and notaries..fed by the bread and butter that is RE. They are down. All these guys don't need accountants.
Do I really need to continue? You lose real estate and you are killing a large portion of Canada's employment.
Why would you have to move if there is a real estate crash? Unless your vocation / job is tied to the industry and/or personally overleveraged I don't see why you would need to.
The oft-repeated thing around here and on the interweb in general is that Vancouver has no lucrative jobs: that the economy is literally built on real estate, mining, and the underground economy. Once real estate dries up, most of those people will be out of jobs and all of the purchasing power that those in the industry (everyone from realtors, to developers, construction, etc) will go down the tubes affecting those in tangential industries such as retail, banking, etc. Also, I think it's woth mentioning the significance of home equity lines of credit this time around. Posted via RS Mobile
I think Vancouver is heavily relied on real estate but it is not quite betting the farm on it. There are quite a lot of lucrative jobs.. (by that I say 80k for a BSc in Chem) Discovery Park(s) have tons of startups and keep expanding, there are a few large multinationals that anchors here eg Mckesson, MDA etc are always looking for EE. AVCorp is always looking for welders. Granted they are not cushy office work and often lab and STEM related, but they pay quite well for a job that only requires a bachelors. A lot of trades (carpenters, welders etc) move back and forth from the gas fields to town for projects already, so if RE going to tank in Vancouver, they are going to stay up North or in Ab for longer stints. They are short on housing up in that area anyways.
I think the problem with Vancouver is we have an over abudance of what Bill Maher called "Cave Drawers", who are hoping for the big break to be handed to them on a silver platter while working at service industries (restaurants, banks, etc etc). If a down turn makes some of them realise trades / making things are much better than selling credit cards in supermarket parking lots and gas statiions; I would say it is actually a good thing. Even though I am Canadian, I donated to Mike Rowe's foundation. I just find it tiring for the sense of entitlement on benefits on everything. You are not entitled to profit on real estate, art, cars, mcdonald's toys etc. without some hard work and a lot of luck.
Back in the nineties people were also worrying, bitching and moaning about mass exodus, but the reality is meh, nothing happened. One area that I can see outward migration from BC is new nursing and med graduates going to Ab, the funding and support system is way better there for people who are interested in further training. PN etc well notwithstanding.
Another area of growth I see with the pipeline screw ups is trucking will grow, a lot of large trucking chains are consolidating and setting more shops in Vancouver.
I have holdings on the south side of QE Park, north of W41, there have been a few developers rounding up neighbours trying to convince to sell for them to redevelop the area into high density. So the Bentalls, the Gillepises etc are still amassing their land holdings. For reference it was in the low 600k for a standard lot back in 02. Same price as a coal harbor townhouse back then when they started to sell.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tapioca
The oft-repeated thing around here and on the interweb in general is that Vancouver has no lucrative jobs: that the economy is literally built on real estate, mining, and the underground economy. Once real estate dries up, most of those people will be out of jobs and all of the purchasing power that those in the industry (everyone from realtors, to developers, construction, etc) will go down the tubes affecting those in tangential industries such as retail, banking, etc. Also, I think it's woth mentioning the significance of home equity lines of credit this time around. Posted via RS Mobile
Then the next problem comes in...people that are underwater. They exist, right now, today. They are getting NO press. Sure, maybe they are good on their mortgage..but the downpayment is gone and to have a realtor sell it, they need to pay in more.
The dream of home ownership in this case, has resulted in a loss.
I saw it when I was selling my mom's condo. He looks at a graph...here's what you were worth 4/5 years ago..here you are today. If you bought in 2007/08 with minimal down, and its mostly mortgage...guess what? Yeah...have fun selling.
Try being the real estate agent that has to look at that little family and say, "well, my commission is 7% on the first 100k and 3% on the remainder." Plus a notary/lawyer and a fee to close out the mortgage, and so on.
Picture a world where that cute little family scrimped, saved and borrowed from parents to buy...and could barely afford kids/cars/house while living there. Where is that extra pool of money coming from?
lol that's me. Which is why I said "fuck it" and moved back in with my parents while renting it out. I'll trade 5 years of independent living for money in the bank.
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^ I respectfully disagree godwin. Yes there are some companies that have headquarters here. But most of Vancouver's industry is tied to Real Estate and a slow down in Real estate can have some bad affects.
Starting with the developers: if less people are buying, they start losing money, less projects starts, less work.
This leads to less jobs for contractors and trades/construction workers.
This will affect property taxes/ or property transfer taxes, which affects the government and municipalities. Less taxes means less spending on infrastructures and hiring etc. Less infrastructure spending means work for construction/contractors and trades people.
Less buying also affects many of the white collar jobs like notaries and lawyers who specialize in Real estate law and dealing with land title charges, removing liens from titles, real estate contracts etc.
Also this will also negatively affect the banking industry: less commision for mortgage brokers and banking professionals that sell HELOCs, Mortgages, mortgage insurance.
Vancouver is full of these type of jobs. And if they're not, they are in service industry jobs. And when more people are trying to pay off their mortgages etc, they have less disposable income to spend at restaurants (less tips for waitresses, less chefs etc), goods and other services.
I know we've been waiting a long time to see if there are any drops in prices, who knows it may never come, maybe the market wont slow down.
Let's just say that many people would not be surprised if housing prices start coming down. But then again I wouldn't be surprised it prices just stay flat for the next 3-5 years.
I would be really surprised if housing prices start increasing 5-10% + again.
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