lol it's such a flawed analysis looking at previous decades data and only looking at the detached housing market

yeah, let's ignore the global market, the current social environment, the current policies in place, the population trends and just focus on an isolated pattern based solely on detached housing

any tom, dick and harry can claim repeating patterns if you manipulate data well enough



Greater Vancouver Home Prices to increase by 21% by 2019 is a more probable scenario

My personal take away: sell now so that I can earn your commission today.

REGBV released some September sales stats:

- Benchmark apartment price is now $635,800
- Benchmark townhouse price is now $786,600
- Benchmark detached price is now $1,617,300

The appreciation in apartments has been remarkable. Basically all areas covered by the REBGV have gone up over 20% over last year. Coquitlam has seen an increase of over 30%.

The gap between apartments and detached is still quite large. However, at some point, detached is going to take off again if apartment price appreciation continues.

REGBV covers all areas north of the Fraser, Richmond, Ladner, Tsawwassen, and Squamish.

Richmond is still moving quick, went to place an offer for a place at asking price (I know! Who pays asking price nowadays?) and the listing got taken down. Relisted again for 300k higher in the next days

My Realty Check

If you click around, there are already reductions of 10%+. Click around enough and you'll find some that are already over 20% reduced.

When will apartments hit $2 million and detached hitting $5 million bros?? I'm waiting... can u guys buy faster please

There are definitely some reductions happening. There's a couple of units in my neighborhood that have been on the market for more than 40 days. They have had price reductions of about 20-30K. Maybe I'm a bit biased because I live in the neighbourhood myself, but considering the prices (540-560k) and what you get for that price in this market (1000+ square feet with attached garage in one of the wealthiest neighbourhoods in Metro Vancouver), they're decent deals. I guess millennials really don't like driving or taking the bus to work? Or is there just as much speculation from locals as there is from the much ballyhooed foreign investor?

I never really bought into the idea of foreign investors driving up prices. Prices have been rising with falling interest rates. Everything the government has done to reduce foreign buyers hasn't done jack to the prices. It's only caused a reduction in sales while the locals wait and see if the regulations do anything.

What will be interesting is when the new universal stress test takes affect. Everyone will have to pass a 2% stress test. You can't get around it with a gift from your parents anymore. The previous one only applied if you need CMHC insurance. That saw a spike of uninsured mortgages because parents were giving kids money to bypass the stress test. This will dramatically reduce borrowing power.

Might stall the market, might not. Add to that a full 1% rate increase by the end of next year, people can only borrow what a 6% stress test allows them to.

The term "foreign investor" is not an accurate description because a ton of loaded immigrants would fly under that radar.

Which neighbourhood?

This is one example in my area:

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R22079...-port-moody-bc

It was originally listed for 579K. The listing was removed after about 30 days and relisted at the current price, so in total, it's been on the market for about 45 days.

It's not glamourous by any means, but it has good square footage and an attached garage, plus parking pad. To me, it's a good place for DINKs who have a hobby car, or outdoor sports equipment like kayaks. It's either something like this, or an older 2-bedroom wood frame condo by Coquitlam Centre in this price range. I might be biased, but I would take the stacked townhouse unit with no elevators, lower strata fees, in a less dense neighbourhood.

Here's some stats from Australia which is having the same housing affordable issues that we are dealing with...

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/.../v2/800x-1.png
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/.../v4/800x-1.png
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/.../v2/800x-1.png

Full article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-to-buy-a-home

Or you could simply send your kids to study here for a few years and when they get their citizenship card just buy buy buy!

Take that website with a grain of salt, heres the place I was looking at.

3331 Williams Road, Richmond

Sep 5:$1,988,000
Oct 2: $1,650,000
Change: - 338000.00 -17%

Heres a cached version of the relators page, showing $1.4m with a open house on sept 17 (3331 Williams Road, Richmond - 5 beds, 2 baths - For Sale Ron Basra, Vancouver Burnaby)

That place is assessed at 1.35M....I don't follow Richmond but they were originally asking 50% above last years assessed value seems like a disconnect from reality to me..

if they have dropped prices..the above example is a prime reason why...they were asking for the moon originally

Assessed prices are a year behind the market. Everything was selling way over assessed last year.

That kitchen looks so damn tacky. 5 bed 2 bath!!!:fuckthatshit: I can imagine a family of 5 fighting for 2 bath. I've been there before. Also would it have killed them to clean up the rooms and hide their clothes prior to taking pictures

so you're telling me based on what they were asking..assuming it was fair and reasonable at the time....prices have popped 50% since July 2016 to October 2017??

Honestly I didn't look at the numbers closely while shopping at No frills. ha.

Yes, they are being a bit hopeful. Over the last few years 25% over assessed almost seemed like the norm. People actually asking assessed values now shows a stabilization of the market. Thank god.


Prices have not popped. The fact of the matter is, detached houses are not selling for 25% more every year since implemented foreign buyers tax. The price did not pop. The assessed value caught up to the staggered actual value of the house.

Yes exactly...but sellers do not acknowledge this hence why they have dropped their prices.....and some have dropped quite a bit...its mostly because they were asking the moon to begin with

Haha I often walk along the area of the Richmond, it wouldve been a tear down for sure. But over the last year, I've counted 6 houses being torn down, built into mega mansions, and sold a week later after FS sign was up. Big lots are still in demand for builders it seems

Would like some feedback. Looking at some places in North Vancouver (Lynn Valley)/Burquitlam area, price variance for what I am looking for one bed/den varying from $70k-$150k estimate difference for similar size if I bought in Vancouver itself.

I work in Vancouver/Burnaby and currently live in Vancouver and the commute is already crazy enough. If I bought in Vancouver, essentially paying the premium for the convenience. Some say, avoid traveling over a bridge if I can due to time spent traveling/stress etc. Trying to determine if a longer commute is worth the savings.

Also don't have much knowledge of Lynn Valley area or Burquitlam area, what's the area like? E.g. Quiet? Sketch? Growing?

Lynn Valley is nice and pretty high income/families living there. Lots of old people but not much going on but if you like the outdoors it's amazing.

Traffic to the north shore is shit every day both ways. Expect to spend 45-60 min a day commuting each way depending on where you work. Also, transit there blows and there's nothing around so... everyone drives

I don't recommend living on the North Shore unless you work on the North Shore or downtown and you can take the Seabus.

I currently work at Metrotown area, typical 9-5 job. I feel traffic terrible everywhere no matter where...

Speaking of traffic, reminds me of my friend last night, works in Richmond and took him over an hour to get to my house and I live in South Vancouver (2 mins from Knight Bridge).