Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Hondaracer]

4444 it's funny you mention the suns orientation as a main buying point

I work for a construction management company who builds almost only 3 level townhomes, our current project the buildings face east-west, however almost all the decks are on the insides of the units therefore of 25-30 units on one street they only see the sun for MAYBE 3 hours a day

I asked the sales girls the other day if anyone ever asks about the sun because working there constantly I know exactly which units do and do not get it, she said only one person of the 35 buyers as of yet has ever asked when and where the sun hits

Crazy to think the majority of the units you would never see the sun except for weekends if you work 9-5

Edit* was gonna say this is also a huge thing for me but mostly because I know things to look for and what I personally want
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[Gridlock]

Cue the quote I cam to put in.

"Our houses, says The Economist, are overvalued by 30% in terms of what we can actually afford, and 74% compared to what they rent for."

That's a Canada average that The Economist is looking at. Vancouver is even worse.

[LiquidTurbo]

Originally Posted by Gridlock

Cue the quote I cam to put in.

"Our houses, says The Economist, are overvalued by 30% in terms of what we can actually afford, and 74% compared to what they rent for."

That's a Canada average that The Economist is looking at. Vancouver is even worse.

Yeah, but that depends on who you talk to...

[iEatClams]

Originally Posted by dvst8

I would agree that the 1980s were built better but you'll have to take in the fact that its 30+ years of wear and tear versus something built more recent with limited use. Really depends if the owners took care of the house

houses nowadays should be better due to increases in technology and advancements. But the issue you have today is that with the housing market booming, just like how everyone can become a realtor - where you have many many people that are terrible at it - everyone now is a developer. So you have guys that don't due proper work or just want to get the job done as fast as you can and move on to the next project while doing the most minimal work and do the minimal to get past inspectors.

Some of the houses I see being built wont last 40 + years like many of the older homes in the 70s and 80s that were built to last. I can see molding issues down the line. But by then the original builders wont be around and wont care.

Then you also have contractors that have sub-contracts that hire guys straight up cash and dont follow all the codes. Like realtors, there are good ones and bad ones, when the market is great, the bad realtors can get away with it and make $, same with developers/contractors.

[LiquidTurbo]

Originally Posted by Gridlock

Cue the quote I cam to put in.

"Our houses, says The Economist, are overvalued by 30% in terms of what we can actually afford, and 74% compared to what they rent for."

That's a Canada average that The Economist is looking at. Vancouver is even worse.

Vancouver house sales roar back - The Globe and Mail

[Gridlock]

^^Oh I get it. I've seen it just driving around my own neighborhood. Sold! Sold!

A power realtor couple named Eric And Julia Vallee will be vacationing well in Mexico this year.

But in that article, we're not mentioning that the rates ARE rising, they actually say, "does a 4 month streak now represent a new stability?" Are you fucking high? Housing prices are never going to be higher(in the foreseeable future) and rates are never going to be so low short of economic apocolypse 2.0.

The government itself is doing everything it can short of causing an 'e-pocolypse' to make housing more expensive, and less desirable.

Fantastic if you are left in a place where you can buy a house for less than 200k...but not cool here.

[subordinate]

A friend's parents house was bought by a development, roughly 30 - 40% ? premium in Van.
This is getting retarded.

[Gululu]

there is no bubble in housing market here. get over it already

[4444]

Originally Posted by Gululu

there is no bubble in housing market here. get over it already

What a great use of ur time, to make a statement with absolutely no back up or even an attempt at an arguement.

Are you somehow employed in real estate? They all seem to have this same disillusioned view... Fundamentals don't matter, all other markets that went as we've gone may have fallen back in line with fundamentals, but we will stay elevated forever...

It's a joke

[TatsuyaKataoka]

In my teenage years, I used to think I'd settle down in Van, buy a house and raise a family

After going through this thread, that dream is now out the window

(Before you give me an avalanche of fails, I was young and idealistic)

[UFO]

Why would you get failed? You understand the realities of the finances, and you don't feel entitled to be able to buy a house in Vancouver and raise a family here.

[LiquidTurbo]

Originally Posted by Gululu

there is no bubble in housing market here. get over it already

[4444]

Originally Posted by TatsuyaKataoka

In my teenage years, I used to think I'd settle down in Van, buy a house and raise a family

After going through this thread, that dream is now out the window

(Before you give me an avalanche of fails, I was young and idealistic)

In 2000 or so, you could buy a nice place for $200-300k, salaries were in line with what they are now, in real terms, so your dream was normal.

What we're currently in is a short term anomaly due to cheap and easy money, just like the US circa 2005 - it takes a while to unwind, but unwind it will

[LiquidTurbo]

Originally Posted by 4444

In 2000 or so, you could buy a nice place for $200-300k, salaries were in line with what they are now, in real terms, so your dream was normal.

What we're currently in is a short term anomaly due to cheap and easy money, just like the US circa 2005 - it takes a while to unwind, but unwind it will

Exactly.

[Iceman-19]

LOL, almost 100% of your income for a house. What the fuck. No bubble, yeah. Right.

[Gridlock]

Housing starts are down.

Housing starts fall for third straight month in August: CMHC | CTV News

That's usually where it begins.

[Carl Johnson]

A watched pot never boils. Too many housing bears watching for a major correction therefore it probably will not happen. For housing to have a significant correction in Vancouver and rest of Canada, interest rates needs to go up a lot more than where it is today. Rate were 5+% back in 2007. So 3% on the US 10-yr today is still pretty low by that measure. You also have to believe Canada is going into an economic contraction of some sort which is not likely in the next year or two.

That is not say it's all clear and buy a house. Each person has their own needs and preferences. I am renting because I just don't see any value in Vancouver properties compare to properties in California. The house I am renting (which the owner tried to sell) has a staggering price to rent ratio of 70. The return he is getting from my rent before tax doesn't even keep up with inflation. But if you are wishing for a blood bath (30-40% price correction) like what happened in US then you are probably dreaming.

[LiquidTurbo]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

A watched pot never boils. Too many housing bears watching for a major correction therefore it probably will not happen. For housing to have a significant correction in Vancouver and rest of Canada, interest rates needs to go up a lot more than where it is today. Rate were 5+% back in 2007. So 3% on the US 10-yr today is still pretty low by that measure. You also have to believe Canada is going into an economic contraction of some sort which is not likely in the next year or two.

That is not say it's all clear and buy a house. Each person has their own needs and preferences. I am renting because I just don't see any value in Vancouver properties compare to properties in California. The house I am renting (which the owner tried to sell) has a staggering price to rent ratio of 70. The return he is getting from my rent before tax doesn't even keep up with inflation. But if you are wishing for a blood bath (30-40% price correction) like what happened in US then you are probably dreaming.

That's what they said in Ireland, and what they are currently saying in the Netherlands.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23681604


All bubbles, while there are variations, are pretty much the same.

[Carl Johnson]

What I am saying is that there is just no catalyst on the horizon for a major correction in Vancouver. Can we have a normal 15-20% correction to scare off some people late to the party? Oh yeah. But conditions like recession and restrictive monetary policy are just not place for a huge correction.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

A watched pot never boils. Too many housing bears watching for a major correction therefore it probably will not happen. For housing to have a significant correction in Vancouver and rest of Canada, interest rates needs to go up a lot more than where it is today. Rate were 5+% back in 2007. So 3% on the US 10-yr today is still pretty low by that measure. You also have to believe Canada is going into an economic contraction of some sort which is not likely in the next year or two.

That is not say it's all clear and buy a house. Each person has their own needs and preferences. I am renting because I just don't see any value in Vancouver properties compare to properties in California. The house I am renting (which the owner tried to sell) has a staggering price to rent ratio of 70. The return he is getting from my rent before tax doesn't even keep up with inflation. But if you are wishing for a blood bath (30-40% price correction) like what happened in US then you are probably dreaming.

You totally contradict urself here, price to rent of 70, guy can't sell - no bubble?

As for Canada's economy... I'm not so sure about this one, real estate makes up way too much of our economy, and it really shouldn't

It will go back to long term, inflation adjusted norms, whether today, 1 year from now, or 5 years from now, it will happen, that's why they call it the 'norm' or long term average (and no, we're not into some new kind of new higher average)

Fundamentals rule, it's why Tesla's stock will come down, not today, as it has too much momentum, but it will come back down to good growth company fundamentals - vancouver and the rest of Canada's real estate is like a momentum stock, just on a way bigger scale

[4444]

Originally Posted by Carl Johnson

What I am saying is that there is just no catalyst on the horizon for a major correction in Vancouver. Can we have a normal 15-20% correction to scare off some people late to the party? Oh yeah. But conditions like recession and restrictive monetary policy are just not place for a huge correction.

A 15-20% correction would lead to a much bigger decrease.

That much correction would wipe out billions of dollars of equity, all those monkies that bought with <20% down would now be underwater, thus are immobile, can't upgrade, can't do anything, they'll likely not be able to renew their mortgage, as they won't meet the equity standards.

It's like a house of cards, this 15-20% fall would be the beginning, not the end

It's not just about monthly payment. The inability to remortgage is huge, and that's why the major correction won't be until 2-3 years away, when a lot of horny 5% down money will be looking to renew their 5 year 2.89% mortgage, except on a smaller equity base, and with a mortgage at nearer 4% - whoops, that just won't happen, as real incomes aren't increasing any, especially in Vancouver...

[VR6GTI]

^ So we can finally say you are right in 2-3 years?

[4444]

Originally Posted by VR6GTI

^ So we can finally say you are right in 2-3 years?

You can do whatever the hell you want - I don't care about being right or wrong for this crowd, although many appreciate my knowledgeable viewpoint on the subject.

I'm right because I don't have money in cdn real estate, but have US real estate worth tonnes more than when I bought it, plus the rental yield... I'm just looking for a return to fundamentals so I can invest in my local market... Until that happens, I'll sit on the sideline and when ppl ask for my advice, I'll give it, or when ppl say things that are blatantly one sided, I will provide a counter point based on science, not emotion (fundamentals are science, as all things come back to fundamentals)

[Carl Johnson]

Originally Posted by 4444

A 15-20% correction would lead to a much bigger decrease.

That much correction would wipe out billions of dollars of equity, all those monkies that bought with <20% down would now be underwater, thus are immobile, can't upgrade, can't do anything, they'll likely not be able to renew their mortgage, as they won't meet the equity standards.

It's like a house of cards, this 15-20% fall would be the beginning, not the end

It's not just about monthly payment. The inability to remortgage is huge, and that's why the major correction won't be until 2-3 years away, when a lot of horny 5% down money will be looking to renew their 5 year 2.89% mortgage, except on a smaller equity base, and with a mortgage at nearer 4% - whoops, that just won't happen, as real incomes aren't increasing any, especially in Vancouver...

Obviously we are gonna find out who is swimming naked all this time when the tide goes out. I have to admit some people are way over their head about real estate here. They think Burnaby is Beverley Hill with new houses listed for $2.5 million which works out to be $650+ per square feet. At that valuation you can get into premium area like San Marino in Cal.

[Tapioca]

But, what if the fundamentals are wrong themselves? (I.e. Average household incomes)

Money under the table, money from overseas (which skewers the income average), income that is shielded through sole proprietorships (Vancouver has the highest concentration of these), etc?
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