Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[CivicBlues]

Originally Posted by mikemhg

We've been here for a number of years now, so we're month to month. He's offered to sell us the condo privately for around $500k, not even sure if that's good or not, as we haven't really been searching.

I doubt we'll purchase, I honestly don't even want to live in this area anymore, it's changed far too much. This area (Brentwood) is more and more looking like Metrotown every year.

Well good luck to you, the entire metro area is changing at breakneck speed so finding the perfect neighborhood today doesn't guarantee you'll be happy even a few years down the road.

Take heed of my other advice though. Have a sympathetic neighbour or building manager keep an eye on your old unit in the event the new owners rent it out within 6 months. Or even keep an eye on Craigslist. You're entitled to the extra 2 months rent if they operate on bad faith.

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by ntan

I'm not sure if I fully understand the new legislation with respect to fixed-term tenancies.

It sounds like I can only vacate them if I decide to use the property for myself (in good faith), or if the tenancy is a sublease contract.

If I do wish to vacate them at the end of the fixed-term contract for the aforementioned reasons, I must give them notice one (or is it two) months prior? Do I still have to give them one month's rent then?

Per my understanding, the limitation of rental increase is not on the unit, but with the tenant (for the given unit), therefore, if the tenant decides to leave, I'm still free to adjust the cost of rent to whatever I choose for a new tenant.

Is this in-line with everyone else's understanding?

From my understand is that unless you intend to use the place for yourself or your relatives you can not vacate them. Or if they decided to leave.

Otherwise after the fixed term it will go into month to month forever and ever.

[heleu]

I'm looking to upgrade from a townhouse to a house sometime in the next year.

The latest REGBV Stats show 1 year price change (in Richmond) for a house to be 4.4% versus 12.6% for townhouses and 27.4% for apartments. It seems like the detached house market pricing has stabilized somewhat. And I think the mortgage rules starting in 2018 will have a further effect.

Thoughts?

[hud 91gt]

Yup. it's been the trend for the last year. Month to month stats continue to show this.

Looking to buy into the detached market myself, I'd like to think these new mortgage rules will have an effect. But the smart people in the industry I talk to seem to think it will really only hit the low end first time buyers. So I guess we will see. My own opinion is everyone is strapped for cash and it will hurt everyone. But I guess that's not the case. hah

[Tapioca]

There's no more Crown land left in Metro Vancouver to develop into residential. Almost all new development in Metro Vancouver is multifamily, aside from leasehold on Indian reserves.

Detached houses are becoming extinct in Metro Vancouver. It's never a bad idea to buy land if you can afford it.

[Rallydrv]

And what's to say if the prices do dip, foreign buyers that were scared of with 15% tax might come back

[yray]

CRANBERRIES AIN'T GONNA FEED OUR KIDS

[Traum]

Originally Posted by Rallydrv

And what's to say if the prices do dip, foreign buyers that were scared of with 15% tax might come back

With no further (new) supply of single detached lands, I don't see any reason why single detached home prices would meaningfully drop.

[mikemhg]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Lougheed and Willingdon simply don't have the capacity to handle the amount of people the city is trying to cram in there. It's wishful thinking that people moving there will abandon their cars because let's face it: the only people who can afford to buy units there now are rich Asians who all have cars, sometimes two or three per household.

Brentwood will also never be a walkable community because it is bisected by two major arterial roads that are used by heavy trucks. The only thing Brentwood has for it is that it's close to the City of Vancouver.

This. That's why we aren't interested in buying the condo from my landlord, we'd rather just move more East to Mount Pleasant or Commercial area.

Brentwood is not walkable whatsoever. It's not nice walking up and down Lougheed Hwy, and north of us is all hills, so on a walkability score the area rates quite low.

I don't see that changing with the addition of SOLO.

[Mr.HappySilp]

Just want to ask RS what do you guys think will happen to the rental market now that the new rental policy is in place?

Will it reduce rental supply? Help reduce rent increase? What will happen to illegal suite which generally just go month to month? Will tenants starts reporting their illegal suite and force them to register and so they can be protected by the new policy?

[Adorkami]

If tenants of illegal suites complain to the city about an illegal suite won't they just be evicted? I don't think the city would allow them to stay while upgrades are made(landlord might choose not to upgrade it and leave it vacant)

[Traum]

Rent control is a pretty well-studied topic in economics. I expect a good number of those typical outcomes to play out in Vancouver as well. Remember that for investors, at the end of the day, they are looking for an ROI that is worth their while. If the ROI from role playing landlords + RE capital appreciation is too little to be worth the trouble -- and there are a whole lot of trouble from role playing landlord, they'll balk and invest their money elsewhere. IMO, rental housing supply is going to get worse compared to the demand that is out there.

Of course, those are the law-abiding ones. The sneaky landlords will find more creative ways to beat (ie. cheat) the system. You end up with more illegal suites and probably more complaints.

Bear in mind that under the RTA, landlords are still allowed to:

1) do renovictions
2) hike annual rent by the standard allowable rent increase -- for 2018, it's a measly 4%

[JDMStyo]

Quick PRESALES VIP update before holidays hit next week...

Vancouver
BUTTERFLY by Westbank
$2000-3000/ft.
1BR $1.2M and up. A steal if you get any of the 20f and below units.
2BR $1.8M and up.

The Butterfly | Downtown Vancouver Presale Condos by Westbank PM for password.
if you think it's expensive - last I went weekend all 330 units are allocated. Not sold, but a lot have gone within 7 days rescission.

Marquis
Cambie Corridor - $1300/sqft.
Concrete, AC, boutique build. Similar to most of the ones near QE Park.
50% sold in 2 weeks.

Park Grande
Nu Stream's own development - Granville/Park around 62nd Ave.
$1000/ft. 1500+ sq ft townhomes. Woodframe 3-4 story townhouses.

Aster
Also Granville/62nd
Lowrise woodframe condos 1-3br
$1000/sq ft. Smaller Chinese developer, but great area/school district.

Coquitlam
Simon 2 by OTIVO - West Coquitlam
$450k 1BR
$550k 2BR
Sold 50% in one weekend, not even public yet. Lowrise + wood frame.
Burquitlam Skytrain.

Wynnwood from Anthem
High end membership only Vancouver Golf course in West Coquitlam 2 blocks from Lougheed Mall. Anthem (guys who developed Station Square at Metro) brings you an interesting balance between park living and Coquitlam.
Jan VIP event - expected $900/sq ft.

Hensley by Cressey
Highrise, concrete, AC deal from Cressey.
35 story high-rise with penthouse amenities (beautiful) - across from Lougheed Mall.
Oddly enough they're building a rental only building right beside it and keeping it themselves.
$900/ft . makes City of Lougheed cheap by comparison from last Nov...!

Surrey
Hawthorne by MOSAIC
VIP round - no info online but friends/family round for 1100sq ft row houses.
$420ks by Cloverdale. Nice area and growing population & amenities. Nice houses in area too, not bad starter home.

10% deposit possible for 1st timers.

Burnaby
Polaris Metrotown
Small developers Transca - marketed by Rennie. Corner of Nelson & Imperial by BONSOR Park.
$1100/ft rumored starting next January.
39 story high-rise

Eternity
Lowrise woodframe - Royal Oak + Kingsway.
Insiders sold 30-40% already, $850/sq ft.
Makes Pixel seem cheap by comparison.
Woodframe low rise utilitarian build. Good potential area by Royal Oak skytrain hub - am personally surprised given Edmonds and Brentwood hub development plans there isn't anything yet in Royal Oak. Could be a nice play.

Concord Brentwood
Tower 3 & 4 - luxury build by largest dev in Canada.
$1100/sq to start. Makes Lumina and Concord Brentwood 1*2 look pedestrian by comparison.

SOLO District Tower 3
Tower 2 residents just moved in last few weeks. This should be pretty sick being some of the tallest by the area.

___

Happy holidays everyone!

[Tapioca]

Non-residents of Canada own less than 5% of housing in Toronto, Vancouver areas - Business - CBC News

About 5% of purchases have been made by non-resident buyers in Vancouver, according to Statistics Canada.

This study didn't look at foreign money as there is really no way to reliably track source of funds.

Meanwhile, properties under a million continue to move. Probably lots of activity before the new OSFI rules come into effect.

[Harvey Specter]

No doubt that majority of people buying RE are locals. Instead of parking their money in stocks, mutual funds, etc... they're using the funds to invest in RE. Returns on local RE are better hence why debt levels are soaring which is why economists and the banks fear a correction in the market because most of these people have no way of getting themselves out of the hole.

[hud 91gt]

I just got off the phone with my mortgage guy. He works with BMO and they finally released a memo to their employees on Monday regarding how they are going to work with these new rules.

BMO will hold the mortgage amount approved (Not the rate) for 6 months if approved prior to Jan 1. The rate will be 90 days as per normal. I asked how the stress test will effect me and he said it is different from person to person but he quoted 20%. Fairly drastic.

So if the other banks are doing similar, we really won't see the full effect of these new lending rules until the second half of 2018.

[ws6ta]

Originally Posted by hud 91gt

I just got off the phone with my mortgage guy. He works with BMO and they finally released a memo to their employees on Monday regarding how they are going to work with these new rules.

BMO will hold the mortgage amount approved (Not the rate) for 6 months if approved prior to Jan 1. The rate will be 90 days as per normal. I asked how the stress test will effect me and he said it is different from person to person but he quoted 20%. Fairly drastic.

So if the other banks are doing similar, we really won't see the full effect of these new lending rules until the second half of 2018.

Makes sense if everyone waited until the last week of december to get an approval. the 90 day term to hold the rate is from their approval date not january 1st and that is standard practice across all banks not something new that BMO drew up for this particular situation.

[hud 91gt]

Originally Posted by ws6ta

Makes sense if everyone waited until the last week of december to get an approval. the 90 day term to hold the rate is from their approval date not january 1st and that is standard practice across all banks not something new that BMO drew up for this particular situation.

The rate. yes. The whole point of my post was the mortgage amount. The rate will change after 90 days as per standard practice like you said.


EDIT: I think what your getting at is not everyone will be pre approved just prior to Jan 1. This is true. but anyone in the market to buy right now will have their mortgage specialist pre approve them again prior to Jan 1 to hold the rate/amount for the longest period. My guy was doing this automatically. I expect any decent broker would be doing the same as long as their client doesn't mind the minor credit implications.

[ws6ta]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Non-residents of Canada own less than 5% of housing in Toronto, Vancouver areas - Business - CBC News

About 5% of purchases have been made by non-resident buyers in Vancouver, according to Statistics Canada.

This study didn't look at foreign money as there is really no way to reliably track source of funds.

Meanwhile, properties under a million continue to move. Probably lots of activity before the new OSFI rules come into effect.

something to think about....

Quebec Immigrant program: net worth 1.6m, give quebec government 800k for 5 years, intend to settle in quebec <---89% left quebec (62% to BC)

approx 2000 millionaire chinese immigrants moving to vancouver yearly because of this program.

they're all considered residents....

[Tapioca]

Originally Posted by ws6ta

something to think about....

Quebec Immigrant program: net worth 1.6m, give quebec government 800k for 5 years, intend to settle in quebec <---89% left quebec (62% to BC)

approx 2000 millionaire chinese immigrants moving to vancouver yearly because of this program.

they're all considered residents....

Yep. I wouldn't discount the impact of the Quebec Immigrant Investor program. But, it's hard to say what impact it's had.

However, it's not all foreign money that's driving the market. Cheap credit, millennial household formation, boomer parents gifting down payments using HELOCs, boomers who refuse to downsize, and people who refuse to leave Metro Vancouver despite low wages and high housing costs have all contributed to the mess we're in now.

However, despite this, it's still not a bad time to buy property if you can afford it and if you intend to stay here for at least several years.

[Rallydrv]

^ around 95 this used to be 500k, if i remember correctly. (not sure net worth clause was thr or not)

they r alot of buyers in the market, when the correction does hit. was told by the bank new rule or not. they are alot of things bank can do to play with numbers and loan u the $.

[Hondaracer]

They were going on about household debt today on CBC in some pretty basic terms, but they were making a point of saying that it was rampant that people were using HELOC's to buy investment properties but then never paying off the principle just the interest per month..

i know this obviously happens but who the fuck would put themselves in this position? if the property purchased couldnt pay down the HELOC it would be pointless..

so you're just banking on the equity to increase enough to pay off lump sums? :/

[Tapioca]

Over 20% of new condos in Vancouver and Richmond owned by non-residents

More insight into today's Stats Canada data re: non-resident real estate ownership.

The number of non-resident purchased condos in Vancouver, Richmond and Coquitlam was almost 20% over the last 2 years. The data seems to corroborate with the demographic changes in these cities.

[Nulified]

Looking at buying my first place next year - a condo. While this subject is more of a YMMV type of thing, is there a target rate for returned commission I should be targeting? 10%, 20%, 30% or more?

Obviously, more is better, but what is reasonable?

[originalhypa]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

About 5% of purchases have been made by non-resident buyers in Vancouver, according to Statistics Canada.

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Over 20% of new condos in Vancouver and Richmond owned by non residents

So, which is it?
No offence, but you’re just as bad as the media when it comes to drinking the non-resident kool aid.