Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[sonick]

I probably missed it posted before, but 4444 what do you do and/or how are you so knowledgable about this stuff?

My gf is looking to buy in the mid-future and was window-shopping some brand new presales around Brentwood, which I am very wary of and trying to steer her away from.

[Gridlock]

Let's remember here at a high level what forms the basis of the economy.

People believe.

That's it! Yes, we can take any discussion of macro or micro economic principles into a much larger discussion of what makes that happen, and how and get into years of economic research and so on, but the heart and soul of your economic reality is-do people believe?

Money only has value because we assign it value. As does everything else, right on down the chain from a house to a car to breakfast cereal.

So people are rushing around right now buying everything in sight because they believe that the economy is sound, and with the small break on prices, that they believe they are getting a good value for the property at the rates for which they are borrowing the money to pay for it.

But look around, at this point I don't think anyone really disputes that prices are high in Vancouver. I think the "science is settled" on that one. That leaves the question to be , "do they just stay high?"

They could. People in general, could, in theory continue to buy and trade real estate in the price levels it currently does.

But there are a few problems. First, not only is the rule that real estate always goes up(wrong), but its also it kind of always has to. Sell a property...it costs a lot of money. If your property hasn't increased in value, then you are bringing a check to closing.

Maybe we aren't seeing it as much on detached/semis but right now today, people are getting into that reality on townhomes and condos. Because now we've eliminated the supply constraint. You are in competition with your own developers. That is happening in your own backyard. People stuck making decisions based on being stuck owning a condo, recognizing a loss to leave it.

Is that a strong economic fundamental? I can buy a unit (yay!) but I need to cry at night when I realize that I need to take a loss on selling it and would have been ahead on renting the same unit? Do the math on any condo on MLS. Find the same unit for rent on CL, and actually do the math. I did...I'll rent it thanks.

God, I could go on for this for hours. Ultimately...who the fuck knows. Maybe Vancouver IS different. I don't think so.

[Gridlock]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

But, what if the fundamentals are wrong themselves? (I.e. Average household incomes)

Money under the table, money from overseas (which skewers the income average), income that is shielded through sole proprietorships (Vancouver has the highest concentration of these), etc?
Posted via RS Mobile

Yes, that has to come into play, something needs to come into play but I don't think you can make up enough to support million dollar crap shacks.

[Gridlock]

Originally Posted by sonick

I probably missed it posted before, but 4444 what do you do and/or how are you so knowledgable about this stuff?

My gf is looking to buy in the mid-future and was window-shopping some brand new presales around Brentwood, which I am very wary of and trying to steer her away from.

Ha...its like sending a horny teenager to a strip club.

"Oh I'm just looking"

Yeah, and pretty soon you're saying yes to a trip to the champagne room. I live for free and we were being pulled to the idea of buying a condo.

"why live for free when you can own the same thing for twice the price!"

This whole Brentwood, SOLO(gag marketing, we're not new york, stop trying to be new york) area is ripe for a loss. People buy in an area like that where its being built over with towers thinking it will be new and trendy, but the risk for sitting among a glut of units overbuilt by the developer.

If its not 2004 where you can increase in equity by 40k between presale and closing, then locking into a unit in a time of large construction isn't as vital, unless you want a baller apartment of which there are only so many sub/pents being built, but your standard 1 bed...nah.

Any development with lines out front, selling out in an hour right now is fake....and they've stopped even putting on that show for you.

[sonick]

Originally Posted by Gridlock

This whole Brentwood, SOLO(gag marketing, we're not new york, stop trying to be new york) area is ripe for a loss. People buy in an area like that where its being built over with towers thinking it will be new and trendy, but the risk for sitting among a glut of units overbuilt by the developer.

If its not 2004 where you can increase in equity by 40k between presale and closing, then locking into a unit in a time of large construction isn't as vital, unless you want a baller apartment of which there are only so many sub/pents being built, but your standard 1 bed...nah.

Tell me about it

What are some recommended local real estate blogs I can look up this kind of stuff on? I've googled a bunch but haven't sifted through to see what's relevant.

[TatsuyaKataoka]

Something weird that I've observed...

Sometimes, when a supercar with BC plates is posted on RS, there is inevitably someone who will say that it's owned by a rich overseas student, a drug dealer, or someone who got lucky in real estate. You don't get that kind of perception with Alberta or Ontario supercars. It just shows you how flimsy Vancouver's economy is compared to T.O. or YYC (and that has been discussed in this thread). Not directly related to real estate but RE does play a role in this.

Originally Posted by 4444

In 2000 or so, you could buy a nice place for $200-300k, salaries were in line with what they are now, in real terms, so your dream was normal.

What we're currently in is a short term anomaly due to cheap and easy money, just like the US circa 2005 - it takes a while to unwind, but unwind it will

Hell, I remember my dad telling me about $400k bungalows in Kits in the late 80s (he ran a restaurant out there)

I'm very disillusioned with Vancouver. All it has going for it is pleasant summers, moderate winters, you can walk around easily and its local/regional politicians aren't fucking kooks (like in Toronto or Montreal). Economically and culturally, it's a small town. Any culture that requires risktaking, whether it be food trucks, arcade bars or the Molson Indy, has been removed to create a sanitized playland for people who have made their money elsewhere. It's like Venice (California) with an earlier bedtime. And I 100% blame the real estate boom for that.

I'm finishing my degree here and then I'm out. There are so many other places I could live-LA, SF, New York, London, Hong Kong, Oslo, Amsterdam, Dubai...the list goes on. But I don't want Vancouver to be my long term home...not now. I've fallen out of love with the city.

Originally Posted by 4444

You can do whatever the hell you want - I don't care about being right or wrong for this crowd, although many appreciate my knowledgeable viewpoint on the subject.

I care...I care plenty. I like how you profanely smack down the idiots in this thread.

[Gridlock]

Originally Posted by sonick

Tell me about it

What are some recommended local real estate blogs I can look up this kind of stuff on? I've googled a bunch but haven't sifted through to see what's relevant.

4444 and I both read Garth Turner's blog , Greater Fool at Book and Weblog ? Authored by Garth Turner ? Greater Fool ? Authored by Garth Turner ? The Troubled Future of Real Estate He seems pretty legit based on the fact that he actually was an MP, and one of influence during the Kim Campbell era...head of CRA I think, based on memory. It can be entertaining, annoying at times but it does get you thinking in a different direction on real estate, and is like a cold shower after hearing the cheesedog MLS folks talk on the news.

I read a lot of the real estate subs on reddit and I find them to be fairly good on different thinking. A lot of it is US based, and is more detail oriented as in solving paperwork issues and such.

Then in terms of personal interest, I follow the local rental scene myself as it relates to work and such. And for that, I try to get people that are involved in it, talking about it and just weed through, listen and learn. And I've come to the conclusion that this is a rarity, as most are more interested in the sound of their own voice, instead of listening to others.

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by Gridlock

Ha...its like sending a horny teenager to a strip club.

"Oh I'm just looking"

Yeah, and pretty soon you're saying yes to a trip to the champagne room. I live for free and we were being pulled to the idea of buying a condo.

"why live for free when you can own the same thing for twice the price!"

This whole Brentwood, SOLO(gag marketing, we're not new york, stop trying to be new york) area is ripe for a loss. People buy in an area like that where its being built over with towers thinking it will be new and trendy, but the risk for sitting among a glut of units overbuilt by the developer.

If its not 2004 where you can increase in equity by 40k between presale and closing, then locking into a unit in a time of large construction isn't as vital, unless you want a baller apartment of which there are only so many sub/pents being built, but your standard 1 bed...nah.

Any development with lines out front, selling out in an hour right now is fake....and they've stopped even putting on that show for you.

I though Solo is planning to built 12 to 14 aparemtns in that area? (Don't quote me I might be wrong but I think is aroudn 12 to 14 apartments). I been in that area day in and day out (Get off at brentwood at take the bus home form there). And I just don't see how they can fit so many apartments in that tiny space. Not to mention they some of the floors are going to be commerical use?

If they are going to be that many apartments do people honestly think when they try to sell it, the value will actually go up? There are 12 to 14 apartments around where you live! That means lots of choice for buyers to think it over.

[AWDTurboLuvr]

I also follow the Greater Fool. His posts are always informative and humourous. For a localized blog, there's Whispers from the Edge of the Rainforest.

[quasi]

Originally Posted by Gridlock

But there are a few problems. First, not only is the rule that real estate always goes up(wrong), but its also it kind of always has to. Sell a property...it costs a lot of money. If your property hasn't increased in value, then you are bringing a check to closing.

I really agree with this, selling costs so much money. I've thought about downgrading to a smaller house but there is no point.

Realtor $14,000-15,000
Closing Costs $1,500-2,000
Property Transfer Tax New Place $9,000
Moving Costs $2,000-4,000

Just to downgrade I'd lose around $30,000 in equity not to mention all the stress that comes with buying and selling a home. We're in a decent spot because we have so much equity built up, I think prices would have to drop over 70% for us to be upside down on mortgage so staying in this house is still a safe concept. I could rent out my house right now and it would cover my mortgage, property taxes and pay the rent of 3 bedroom house in the same area but it would just create so many more headaches.

Homes where I live are still selling for more then they were 5 years ago, I'm not talking about listing I'm talking about selling price. A crash, correction or whatever you want to call it may be on it's way but it hasn't come yet where I live.

[Gridlock]

Originally Posted by quasi

Realtor $14,000-15,000

This is an area that is so ripe for disruption. There are a lot of people that are coming up with some creative ideas on this, but can't break the last the final part of the MLS monopoly...MLS has the buyers.

So the only incentive to NOT work with a buyers agent is to rape and pillage FSBO's that don't want to work with agents. And that's where they get the statistic that MLS properties sell for 16-19% more, exceeding the commission.

MLS are greedy bastards. I went to some career nights, and I'll tell you, the people there might be wanting to enter the business of trading real estate, but the remaxs and suttons of the world are in the business of hiring agents. They no longer see a taste of the actual transaction..they make money, and lots of through desk fees. Its an insane little system.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

But, what if the fundamentals are wrong themselves? (I.e. Average household incomes)

Money under the table, money from overseas (which skewers the income average), income that is shielded through sole proprietorships (Vancouver has the highest concentration of these), etc?
Posted via RS Mobile

Would have been the same in the comparables, there's always black market money, Asian investors (they used to be US investors when US would buy $1.50 cdn)

The fundamentals are never wrong, it's why they're the fundamentals

[4444]

Originally Posted by sonick

I probably missed it posted before, but 4444 what do you do and/or how are you so knowledgable about this stuff?

My gf is looking to buy in the mid-future and was window-shopping some brand new presales around Brentwood, which I am very wary of and trying to steer her away from.

I'm a CA, work in business world - own a bunch of real estate in US, interests in UK as well... just interested in the subject so i've educated myself and use my education/business experience as well

get your gf to cool her jets and just enjoy renting, renting is so much better, anyways - you have such freedom!

[Great68]

Living under someone else's roof & rules is freedom?

[noclue]

not having a mortgage or worrying about upkeep is freedom. But everyone's definition is different and this rent vs own debate will go forever.

[Great68]

Originally Posted by noclue

not having a mortgage or worrying about upkeep is freedom. But everyone's definition is different and this rent vs own debate will go forever.

Yep.

Yesterday I had some friends over who smoke. I said "You better watch out, the landlord might complain", then I said "Oh wait, that's me!"

That's freedom to me.

[Gridlock]

Originally Posted by Great68

Living under someone else's roof & rules is freedom?

You have a house.

HUGE difference.

With stratas its a whole different world of memos, and reminders and FUCKING FINES.

Got to attend the AGM guys. I don't know if you read our bylaws, but your door knocker is out of code with keeping a uniform look to the unit. I'm sorry, but we heard your table saw at 8:15 and as you know the cut off for work is 8:00 and that counts in your garage. Us talking about it isn't enough, so here's a fine to help correct you.

Strata fees are going up.

Assessments!

Crazy neighbors you can't evict.

Need I continue? You call THAT freedom? That's home ownership for a lot of people.

Honestly, I'll take running the place or my own house. I'd prefer that house not be in chilliwack or hope, but its not looking too promising.

[LiquidTurbo]

Nobody 'owns' their own house. The banks simply lend you the home and then you can take ownership 30 years later.

[Great68]

Originally Posted by LiquidTurbo

Nobody 'owns' their own house. The banks simply lend you the home and then you can take ownership 30 years later.

You could look at it that way.

But the bank's not going to tell you that you can't have a pet, that you can't turn your radio up, that you can't plant a plum tree in your back yard. Etc.

[Great68]

Originally Posted by Gridlock

You have a house.

HUGE difference.

With stratas its a whole different world of memos, and reminders and FUCKING FINES.

Got to attend the AGM guys. I don't know if you read our bylaws, but your door knocker is out of code with keeping a uniform look to the unit. I'm sorry, but we heard your table saw at 8:15 and as you know the cut off for work is 8:00 and that counts in your garage. Us talking about it isn't enough, so here's a fine to help correct you.

Strata fees are going up.

Assessments!

Crazy neighbors you can't evict.

Need I continue? You call THAT freedom? That's home ownership for a lot of people.

Honestly, I'll take running the place or my own house. I'd prefer that house not be in chilliwack or hope, but its not looking too promising.

I agree. I could never live in a strata. Seems to me like the people on those councils always crave having that little bit of influence, or "power", over how other people live their lives.

[NKC ONE]

Originally Posted by LiquidTurbo

Nobody 'owns' their own house. The banks simply lend you the home and then you can take ownership 30 years later.

Nobody? What about those who don't have a mortgage?

[adambomb]

This thread is the worse thread on revscene. Go back 3, 5, 10 pages. Its all the same posters, posting the same doom and gloom that is expected in real estate. The exact opposites of real-estate agents, the doom/gloom agents. Now these "experts" are saying wait 2-3 years for a market correction. Wasn't the bubble supposed to burst back in 2007. That's when I first heard about a Vancouver real-estate "bubble bursting"


Yet, I look out my window, I see nothing but construction. I see cranes and little electricians and forming crews all day long. There are currently 4 highrises outside my Coquitlam window in different stages of construction right now. The ones that were built before are all pretty much occupied. You can tell at night by all the lights on. In my moms neighbourhood, a crack shack is sold and torn down in a week. About half a year later, a new house is built and a new family is moving in. Sometimes they are Asian, sometimes they are Caucasian, they can even be South Asian. This has been happening for the past decade in Burnaby. These people must be born suckers according to some in this thread.

We also own two rental units downtown. Everytime someone moves out, we raise the rent, everytime, someone is willing to pay more. We rent a bachelor apt for $1600/month. My 1 bedroom in False creek goes for $1950/month. I'm thinking about adding another downtown rental unit to my portfolio. I must be doing something wrong.

Should I be worried about the doom and gloom everyone is posting. Most posters in this thread would say YES!!. However, right now, i'm doing pretty good with real estate investments in Vancouver. Granted they may not be as lucrative as US investments, but I don't need to hire a property manager.

[4444]

Originally Posted by Great68

Living under someone else's roof & rules is freedom?

Your view of freedom is so narrow, you can smoke? That's freedom to you? That's a fucking lame freedom.

I mean it from the perspective that I can up and leave at any moment, not an ounce of financial risk associated with that, I don't have to worry about an increase in mortgage rates taking me over the edge of what I can afford.

And if u think a come back is 'ur landlord can raise rents' there are caps on how much, but in 4 years, not a single raise, why? Because he hears not note one from me, I give him 12 cheques every January, text him if he needs to send someone over to fix something, that's it - knows I always pay, he makes his money (he bought the place brand new 16 yrs ago so his cost base is actually reasonable), and I pay about $300-500 below market rent at that, compared to others that live in my building

So, yeah, I think I have the freedom... Whether ur 'buddies want to smoke' - I'm not 16, and that stuff is just so futile

[4444]

Originally Posted by Great68

Yep.

Yesterday I had some friends over who smoke. I said "You better watch out, the landlord might complain", then I said "Oh wait, that's me!"

That's freedom to me.

I'm also not talking about living in someone's basement suite, that's just gross, that's boarding, not renting a home, I'm referring to condos, townhomes, or houses, in my case a condo

[4444]

Originally Posted by adambomb

This thread is the worse thread on revscene. Go back 3, 5, 10 pages. Its all the same posters, posting the same doom and gloom that is expected in real estate. The exact opposites of real-estate agents, the doom/gloom agents. Now these "experts" are saying wait 2-3 years for a market correction. Wasn't the bubble supposed to burst back in 2007. That's when I first heard about a Vancouver real-estate "bubble bursting"


Yet, I look out my window, I see nothing but construction. I see cranes and little electricians and forming crews all day long. There are currently 4 highrises outside my Coquitlam window in different stages of construction right now. The ones that were built before are all pretty much occupied. You can tell at night by all the lights on. In my moms neighbourhood, a crack shack is sold and torn down in a week. About half a year later, a new house is built and a new family is moving in. Sometimes they are Asian, sometimes they are Caucasian, they can even be South Asian. This has been happening for the past decade in Burnaby. These people must be born suckers according to some in this thread.

We also own two rental units downtown. Everytime someone moves out, we raise the rent, everytime, someone is willing to pay more. We rent a bachelor apt for $1600/month. My 1 bedroom in False creek goes for $1950/month. I'm thinking about adding another downtown rental unit to my portfolio. I must be doing something wrong.

Should I be worried about the doom and gloom everyone is posting. Most posters in this thread would say YES!!. However, right now, i'm doing pretty good with real estate investments in Vancouver. Granted they may not be as lucrative as US investments, but I don't need to hire a property manager.

Good for you!!! I'm glad you're able to have the herd mentality too, about 300 million people in the US said the same thing in 2005, 60 million Brits (well the ones outside London, yes, London, one of the worlds financial and business hubs) said the same thing - real estate juiced by easy and cheap money

I could spend hours knocking down everything you've said with valid, fact based analysis, but I won't, I'll let you think you've won - because you have... Until you haven't anymore

Oh, and as for hiring a property manager, that's a major concern for you? What, you have no people skills and can't pick up a phone if you want to find out something above and beyond the online, real time, financials and reports you get? Yeah, real pain in the butt?!?!

I'd love you to show me where you will by downtown and rent for positive cash flow, especially as rates are going up....

And also, you must have suckers living in your places, I pay way less, live in a big 2 bed in yaletown, either they're idiots, or I'm doing something right