Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[originalhypa]

Originally Posted by hud 91gt

and nice Canadians just let it happen... But with those sly tactics and morals, how do you even fix it?

Every time there is an article like this in the papers, the social media comments are full of both supporters and detractors. The fact that there are still folks who argue that this isn't a problem in Vancouver makes me scratch my head.

[stewie]

Originally Posted by hud 91gt

and nice Canadians just let it happen... But with those sly tactics and morals, how do you even fix it?

I don't think we can. I think at this point all we can now do is try to slow it down just enough to keep the majority of people quiet. As long as we're loving and willing to invite ANYONE into Canada with open arms we're only digging ourselves a hole we can't get out of. If anyone brings up banning foreigners or their RE purchases it's politic suicide for them and they're slapped with racist labels. Here's a great idea - for a 10 year plan lets build 100,000 new houses. Here's and even better idea - let's open our arms and bring in 300,000 people a year and have a large portion of them come to the major cities where they'll easily price people out. Building those houses is useless when you're bringing in a million+ people in that same time frame. Half of the people can't afford to buy a place any more and those who rent have a fear of a demoviction at any time or increased prices every year.

Foreign investors program - Apply through P.E.I? Limit their purchases to that province and make it so they're only allowed to work there as well unless they've been approved elsewhere or else they'll just jump ship and flock to one of Canada's major cities within a few months. Apparently we depend on foreigners money so let them dump their in provinces that need it.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by stewie

Foreign investors program - Apply through P.E.I? Limit their purchases to that province and make it so they're only allowed to work there as well unless they've been approved elsewhere or else they'll just jump ship and flock to one of Canada's major cities within a few months. Apparently we depend on foreigners money so let them dump their in provinces that need it.

Won't work / doesn't work because the Canadian Charter of Rights specifically allows for freedom of mobility. As part of the Constitution, it is the highest law that supercedes everything else. As such, we can't attach any constraints or conditions that limit where they live / work / buy etc.

[Mr.HappySilp]

Simple anyone who got their Canadian citizenship can purchase property that's 7m+ until 10 years later. Anyone buying a property with money out of Canada banking system even if it a penny is subject to this as well. Make it very even if any lawyer, real estate agent, developers knows the money is not from Canada and they did not report it they will be sent to jail and lost their liscense. This will solve a lot of the issue.
For the money to be consider from Canada again it have to be in a canada financial institute for at least 10 years.

This way the lower end of the market will drop in price and more locals can purchase and if anyone wants to park their money here they still can but the price will be a lot higher. It will also help eliminate those who use Quebec investment program since in order to purchase property you have to be within in Canada for 10 years at least and the money you use have to be in Canada for 10 years at least. Or they can bit the bullet and purchase something that's over 7 million.

[stewie]

Originally Posted by Traum

Won't work / doesn't work because the Canadian Charter of Rights specifically allows for freedom of mobility. As part of the Constitution, it is the highest law that supercedes everything else. As such, we can't attach any constraints or conditions that limit where they live / work / buy etc.

I'm a bit confused then. What's the point of having a P.E.I investors program? Is it just an excuse to lend some money and go elsewhere? Just a way to track how many investors are going to which province. If so that's a failure of a program. 90% that apply through P.E.I wont be there for very long lol

Of course we have different view points but I just think that if someone is here as an investor that's part of a program for a certain province they should be staying in that province until the program is finished - citizenship..if they make it that far. While part of the program they can buy and work anywhere in that province.


This is apples to oranges but hopefully you can get the picture I'm trying to word out and relate it to what I wrote above. If I invite you to my house for dinner and you choose to come in, great. Just because I let you in doesn't mean I wan't you walking around with your shoes on, going into my bedroom and laying on my bed to watch tv. People may say 'my house is your house' when a guest comes over but they don't mean it. My house is your house...to an extent.

Does that come off making me sound like a d-bag?

[Traum]

Stewie, I know exactly where you are coming from / what you are asying, and I agree with you because we share a similar level of respect to contractual agreements -- or at least, honour our words and committments. But if I know a common / common enough pattern with certain "foreign investors", it is exactly as what Justice Susan Griffin says in the Vancouver Sun article:

- certain scumbags will assert false facts in legal proceedings when they believe it suits their interests
- these same scumbags have no internal moral guideline to tell the truth, and absolutely no hesitation in lying when they thought it might help them further their causes

In other words, they have no interest to honour their end of the bargain to stay in PEI, Quebec, Manitoba, or wheverwhere it is that a certain investor / immigration program asks of them. To expect them to do so is a westernized belief / value system -- a value system that I was raise on and believe in as well. And yet from experience, I also know it is highly unlikely for these certain "investors" to respect and abide by "our rules", so to speak.

The point of contention is what you have written below:

Originally Posted by stewie

Of course we have different view points but I just think that if someone is here as an investor that's part of a program for a certain province they should be staying in that province until the program is finished - citizenship..if they make it that far. While part of the program they can buy and work anywhere in that province.

I know as part of the (immigration) agreement, the investor should stay and invest in the province where they have applied to. But the problem is, this agreement is actually unlawful / unconstitutional because Canadian citizens, PR, and even visitors are protected under the Canadian Charter of Rights to guarantee their freedom of mobility. The investors have to land in their targeted investment province to get in, but once they are in, they are free to roam anywhere. We cannot supercede the Charter of Rights because it is part of the highest statue in the country.

[Mr.HappySilp]

^^ I guess that's why certain country won't give out work permits to certain cities even for their citizens.

[mikemhg]

Originally Posted by originalhypa

Every time there is an article like this in the papers, the social media comments are full of both supporters and detractors. The fact that there are still folks who argue that this isn't a problem in Vancouver makes me scratch my head.

Sounds like the Trump thread..

[originalhypa]

^
But the Trump gov't doesn't affect us as much as the local real estate market. I don't know why Canadians have such a strong opinion about what our neighbours to the south are doing with their govt's.



More info on the local market.
http://theprovince.com/news/local-ne...a-1568811431e3

Dan Fumano: If foreign home ownership is a $45-billion 'tip of the iceberg,' Vancouver expert hopes 'we're not on the Titanic'

If $45 billion in foreign-owned Metro Vancouver housing represents the “tip of the iceberg” — to use the recent words of one federal official — then Andy Yan is a bit worried about what’s under the water.

Yan, director of Simon Fraser University’s City Program, spent the past three weeks “drilling deep” into gigabytes of raw data on Vancouver property ownership, released last month by Statistics Canada.

Yan’s analysis shows that the kinds of condominiums sought by and sized for Vancouver families hoping to live in the city where they work also appear especially desirable to people in other countries who want to put their money in those condos, but not their families.

While some real estate industry figures maintain that local demand drives Metro Vancouver’s housing market, where prices across the region increased 65 per cent in the last three years, other experts say the new figures reveal a level of foreign ownership high enough to put substantial pressure on pricing.

Although last month’s StatsCan release represents a big step forward in understanding foreign property ownership in Canada, it doesn’t capture the full picture. Haig McCarrell of Statistics Canada told Postmedia last month the initial data release didn’t include, for example, condo pre-sale contracts or properties owned by foreign-controlled companies.


It’s unclear how many properties fit those descriptions, but, said McCarrell: “You’re seeing the tip of the iceberg right now, quite frankly.”

To which Yan responds: “If that’s the tip of the iceberg, I just hope we’re not on the Titanic.”

Yan’s analysis shows while the rate of foreign property ownership is as low as one per cent in some segments of the Metro Vancouver housing market, it’s above 20 per cent in others.

Yan found that of all City of Vancouver condos worth $1.5 million or more, regardless of when they were built, at least one in five were owned by foreigners (people whose primary residence is outside of Canada, regardless of immigration status or citizenship). Richmond and Coquitlam had similar rates. This isn’t a tiny number of “luxury” units in Vancouver. The median price of a three-bedroom condo, considered a suitable housing type for a local working family, was $1.62 million last month, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

A 20 per cent proportion of foreigners owning higher-value condos is “a very high number” by international standards, and enough to “drive up housing prices for local residents,” said Manuel B. Aalbers, an associate professor of urban and economic geography at the University of Leuven in Belgium.

“There are very few, if any, other cities where the numbers are this high,” said Aalbers after reviewing Yan’s findings. Aalbers studied transnational property investment in six countries for his 2016 book The Financialization of Housing.

“Even a much smaller number — say five per cent — would already impact housing prices significantly,” Aalbers said.

The numbers suggest Vancouver, like other global cities including London and New York, is being used “as a safe-deposit box” by a wealthy international crowd using “Vancouver as a place to store their money.”

But Reliance Properties president Jon Stovell said even if the rate of foreign ownership is 10 to 30 per cent, “we’re still talking about somewhere between 70 and 90 per cent who aren’t foreign. So why are those people having so much trouble buying?”

“Foreign ownership is a factor, I don’t think anybody’s saying it’s not a factor,” Stovell said.

Governments have tried several measures to address demand — including B.C.’s foreign buyer tax and Vancouver’s empty homes tax — with only “limited effect,” he said

Stovell said Vancouver’s focus should be increasing housing supply, which has been restrained by restrictive zoning and permitting delays.

Vancouver’s emergence as a “very desirable world-class” city has also been a factor in housing prices, said Urban Development Institute CEO Anne McMullin.

“The origins of the escalation in home prices and foreign interest in both buying here to live and invest goes back decades to when Vancouver invited the world for Expo 86 and the Winter Olympics 2010,” McMullin said. “Additionally, we have a heavily constrained land base in the Lower Mainland and haven’t built enough homes to both meet our population growth and strong local demand.”

But population growth and local demand alone, strong as they may be, don’t fully explain the radical disconnect that’s emerged between Vancouver housing prices and local incomes.

Detached houses in Vancouver owned by non-residents of Canada are worth 45 per cent more, on average, than Vancouver houses owned by people who live in this country.

Yan found at least $45 billion worth of residential Metro Vancouver property is owned by non-residents, including $22 billion worth in the City of Vancouver alone.

The real number is higher, as StatsCan acknowledged, but no one knows how much higher.

“If we’re steering the Titanic, we don’t need to know exactly how big that iceberg is,” Yan said. “We know it’s there. And we need to perhaps alter course, because it takes time for the entire system to shift.”

But as for how exactly to alter course, the debate continues full steam ahead.

[Great68]

Originally Posted by Traum

If you ask me, what I'd like to see is to have their citizenship / permanent residency status revoked. (Damn I never would have thought I'd be supporting Harper's Bill C-whatever it was that revokes citizenship...) But in reality, a person cannot be stateless. So if an ex-Chinese national has become a naturalized Canadian, under Chinese law he has to forfeit his Chinese citizenship, and Canada would be unable to revoke his Canadian citizenship.

What is clear is, we -- or at least I -- don't want to see this kind of lying SOB scumbags staying in our country.

Bill C-6
I don't think that portion of the bill (removing citizenship) would ever have passed a Charter challenge, as it would imply that one type of Canadian citizen (immigrated) is different than another type of Canadian citizen (born here). Kind of goes against all of Section 15 of the Charter.

[Traum]

^^ Yes, which is why I did not and still do not support the bill. On the other hand, if lies and deceit were used to obtain citizenship, I think it is reasonable to at least have a discussion on whether the naturalized citizenship should be revoked or not.

But that's another topic for another thread.

[Tapioca]

Gregor isn't seeking re-election.

What will it mean for real estate in the City of Vancouver? My prediction is that an NPA candidate will be elected and single family homeowners will get to keep their houses while the homeless, and all of the young people who want to live and work in Vancouver will continue to suffer on the streets and in subpar rental accommodation.

[CivicBlues]

Shaaa-weeet!

Does this mean the War on Cars is over? The Viaducts will stay up now? Bulldoze some bike lanes? yeehaw!

[Great68]

Originally Posted by Traum

^^ Yes, which is why I did not and still do not support the bill. On the other hand, if lies and deceit were used to obtain citizenship, I think it is reasonable to at least have a discussion on whether the naturalized citizenship should be revoked or not.

But that's another topic for another thread.

Revocation is still possible in those cases. The conservative version of the bill just said that the Minister of Immigration was the decision maker in most cases. The liberals amended that section so the Supreme Court was the decision maker for revocation in all cases unless the individual requests the minister to make the decision.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration...alassent0.html

[Traum]

As much as I hate Moonbeam's idiotic bike lanes and his ruthless approach to public consultation, at least I understand the reasons for him to densify the city the way he did. I do not agree with it, but at the end of the day, I think the housing affordability and traffic congestion problems are bigger than what a single mayor can handle within the confines of his municipality. At a minimum, it needs to be a coordinated regional effort, if not one that requires provincial and federal involvements.

[Hondaracer]

moonbeam did an awesome job at getting rid of homelessness..

watch him go sit on the board of Bosa or Beedie now

[CivicBlues]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

moonbeam did an awesome job at getting rid of homeownership

ftfy

[welfare]

Originally Posted by stewie

I'm a bit confused then. What's the point of having a P.E.I investors program? Is it just an excuse to lend some money and go elsewhere? Just a way to track how many investors are going to which province. If so that's a failure of a program. 90% that apply through P.E.I wont be there for very long lol

Of course we have different view points but I just think that if someone is here as an investor that's part of a program for a certain province they should be staying in that province until the program is finished - citizenship..if they make it that far. While part of the program they can buy and work anywhere in that province.


This is apples to oranges but hopefully you can get the picture I'm trying to word out and relate it to what I wrote above. If I invite you to my house for dinner and you choose to come in, great. Just because I let you in doesn't mean I wan't you walking around with your shoes on, going into my bedroom and laying on my bed to watch tv. People may say 'my house is your house' when a guest comes over but they don't mean it. My house is your house...to an extent.

Does that come off making me sound like a d-bag?

They changed the IIP in 2014. It's only Quebec now. 1400 allowed annually, I believe.
Of course that doesn't matter. They still jet 2/3rds to Vancouver West end and 1/3rd to Toronto anyways.
Works out 'great'. Quebec gets the 800$k interest free loan, and Vancouver gets the inflated housing market. With pennies of revenue through income tax.

Originally Posted by originalhypa

More info on the local market.
Dan Fumano: If foreign home ownership is a $45-billion ?tip of the iceberg,? Vancouver expert hopes ?we?re not on the Titanic? | The Province

It's almost like the government is turning a blind eye to the real cause...
Build more. Raise interest rates. Increase density. Foreign tax.
Does nothing for affordability. Just increases revenue.


That 5% of non residential owners works out to at least 30% of the capital in the greater Vancouver market. And that's a modest assumption.
No shit it's effecting it.

[Hehe]

The whole immigration problem (rich asses getting on programs by other provinces just to move to some other provinces when PR is obtained) can be largely mitigated if we adopt conditional PR card a la USA and by-pass the charter rights altogether.

US usually has a 2yr limitation in which the holder of this "conditional" green card needs to prove that he/she has satisfied the requirement to have the condition removed from the card.

To bypass the whole charter right issue, the program would simply issue a long-term resident visa (say 2-5yrs). When the individual fulfills certain requirements (physical presence in the province that granted the visa, as an example), CIC would then issue the proper PR card.

Sure, nothing is keeping them from moving to other provinces once PR is granted since that's the right given by the charters, at least we can make it less attractive from people who are just looking a quick way to obtain residency.

[Tapioca]

We already have a long term visa program called the super visa.

And Charter mobility rights apply to all residents of Canada, even those on visas. The courts have said that the Charter applies to all those who have legal status in Canada, even those on tourist visas or who are refugees.

[Hehe]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

We already have a long term visa program called the super visa.

And Charter mobility rights apply to all residents of Canada, even those on visas. The courts have said that the Charter applies to all those who have legal status in Canada, even those on tourist visas or who are refugees.

Yes, they are free to move wherever they are... but they aren't gonna satisfy the requirement for them to be granted PR.

They can't challenge the charter based on this because it's a condition to be granted something... just the same as our requirement for someone to be granted our citizenship... One is free to go wherever the heck one wants, but if one is not satisfying the conditions, one ain't getting the citizenship (or even just the renewal of PR).

I see it as a fair middle ground for those who are genuinely looking to settle in PEI/QC... while discouraging those who aren't.

[Tone Loc]

So much wishful thinking in this thread.

Canadian politicians are so trapped in their political correctness that it would be career suicide for any politician to address the "problem" of foreign investment, so much so that nobody calls it a problem even though an entire generation of skilled professionals have been completely priced out of the housing market. Not to mention that the developers in Vancouver have had their hands in City Hall for years now.... good riddance that Moonbeam is finally leaving but at the same time, I don't think the next guy/girl in power is going to change the status quo.

This weakness (at least I believe it is a weakness) is one that many foreign investors of Asian descent are too eager to exploit. The fact that nobody in power is doing anything about the problem of foreign investment is most definitely seen as a weakness by those people; to see it as not so is due to our misplaced understanding that Asian values are similar to Western values, as Traum already pointed to above. I am Asian and I grew up around lots of other Asian people, and unfortunately the mentality is that of "climb over others to get to the top" is very much alive and well.

What Australia and New Zealand are considering (not sure if it's been passed into law yet) is a complete ban on foreigners buying homes. Imagine the outcry from all of the bleeding hearts if anyone were to suggest that in Canada. Not to mention that a law of that nature should have been passed a decade ago to stop the shitstorm that is occurring now. Instead we get Christy Clark going over to China to get more people to come and buy and invest in BC.

Can you really blame foreign investors for coming here, when we have A) a lax immigration system, B) ineffective politicians who value their own careers over doing right by Canadians, a C) people like Christy Clark who have their head so far up their asses that they invite more problems? If you are a foreign investor, all you see is loophole, loophole, loophole, all ready to go and exploit.

As far as a "crash" is concerned, don't hold your breath. Not when there is a seemingly endless supply of wealthy foreigners with cash in hand and the demand to match.

[mikemhg]

You know, a few years back I would have agreed with you. But I've been thinking about this more in terms of our local politics lately. I often wonder if the "Trump effect" could apply to a local politician who ran on a campaign agenda of banning foreign ownership, with some nationalist rhetoric, and if that person would be successful. I think the level of rancor in the city at this point would certainly make it possible for such politician to be successful, but who knows.

Originally Posted by Tone Loc

So much wishful thinking in this thread.

Canadian politicians are so trapped in their political correctness that it would be career suicide for any politician to address the "problem" of foreign investment, so much so that nobody calls it a problem even though an entire generation of skilled professionals have been completely priced out of the housing market. Not to mention that the developers in Vancouver have had their hands in City Hall for years now.... good riddance that Moonbeam is finally leaving but at the same time, I don't think the next guy/girl in power is going to change the status quo.

This weakness (at least I believe it is a weakness) is one that many foreign investors of Asian descent are too eager to exploit. The fact that nobody in power is doing anything about the problem of foreign investment is most definitely seen as a weakness by those people; to see it as not so is due to our misplaced understanding that Asian values are similar to Western values, as Traum already pointed to above. I am Asian and I grew up around lots of other Asian people, and unfortunately the mentality is that of "climb over others to get to the top" is very much alive and well.

What Australia and New Zealand are considering (not sure if it's been passed into law yet) is a complete ban on foreigners buying homes. Imagine the outcry from all of the bleeding hearts if anyone were to suggest that in Canada. Not to mention that a law of that nature should have been passed a decade ago to stop the shitstorm that is occurring now. Instead we get Christy Clark going over to China to get more people to come and buy and invest in BC.

Can you really blame foreign investors for coming here, when we have A) a lax immigration system, B) ineffective politicians who value their own careers over doing right by Canadians, a C) people like Christy Clark who have their head so far up their asses that they invite more problems? If you are a foreign investor, all you see is loophole, loophole, loophole, all ready to go and exploit.

As far as a "crash" is concerned, don't hold your breath. Not when there is a seemingly endless supply of wealthy foreigners with cash in hand and the demand to match.

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by Tone Loc

So much wishful thinking in this thread.

Canadian politicians are so trapped in their political correctness that it would be career suicide for any politician to address the "problem" of foreign investment, so much so that nobody calls it a problem even though an entire generation of skilled professionals have been completely priced out of the housing market. Not to mention that the developers in Vancouver have had their hands in City Hall for years now.... good riddance that Moonbeam is finally leaving but at the same time, I don't think the next guy/girl in power is going to change the status quo.

This weakness (at least I believe it is a weakness) is one that many foreign investors of Asian descent are too eager to exploit. The fact that nobody in power is doing anything about the problem of foreign investment is most definitely seen as a weakness by those people; to see it as not so is due to our misplaced understanding that Asian values are similar to Western values, as Traum already pointed to above. I am Asian and I grew up around lots of other Asian people, and unfortunately the mentality is that of "climb over others to get to the top" is very much alive and well.

What Australia and New Zealand are considering (not sure if it's been passed into law yet) is a complete ban on foreigners buying homes. Imagine the outcry from all of the bleeding hearts if anyone were to suggest that in Canada. Not to mention that a law of that nature should have been passed a decade ago to stop the shitstorm that is occurring now. Instead we get Christy Clark going over to China to get more people to come and buy and invest in BC.

Can you really blame foreign investors for coming here, when we have A) a lax immigration system, B) ineffective politicians who value their own careers over doing right by Canadians, a C) people like Christy Clark who have their head so far up their asses that they invite more problems? If you are a foreign investor, all you see is loophole, loophole, loophole, all ready to go and exploit.

As far as a "crash" is concerned, don't hold your breath. Not when there is a seemingly endless supply of wealthy foreigners with cash in hand and the demand to match.

Not if China stops money form leaving the country then a crash might happen.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by Mr.HappySilp

Not if China stops money form leaving the country then a crash might happen.

China can -- and will -- continue to tighten controls on its money exodus crisis, but as the recent news article that was posted in this thread has shown, its citizens will continue to come up with new and creative ways to sidestep the new measures that are put in place. What I'm saying is, the money flow can (and probably will) slow, but it won't slow to a trickle at all.