Vancouver's Real Estate Market

[Ludepower]

Originally Posted by originalhypa

Also, I went off a little ago about the Chinese. It was a little harsh and I would like to apologize for pissing on a billion people. Emotions are high these days, and it's hard to not take notice when you see the changes around you. Peace and love

Also would like to apologize about dog eat dog world.
It's the sad reality we live in and it's a monthly worriesome to pay my mortgage.

Just feel like the easy finger pointing at one problem when it's a collective issue becomes the blame game.

The same government that got us in this mess you want them to solve it.

What ever happens will happened. Just accept and adapt. Happy CNY.

[tiger_handheld]

was discussing some custom build options and curious if you pro's have any ideas in terms of $$


vancouver/burnaby/coq
duplex (3/4br , 2/3.5bth)
1 br suite basement on each side of duplex
laneway
small back yard (for a dog to do business)

what kind of over value price am i looking at?

[Hondaracer]

Rough rough numbers for somthing like that you’re probably looking between 650 and 800k

[Traum]

IMO, you need to know the approximate total square footage to tell how much construction is going to cost. Otherwise, there is too much variance in cost calculation.

Also bear in mind that the home designer + construction blueprints are going to cost a bit of money too. From my preliminary research, it seems like there is quite a big range -- from anywhere between $10k - $40k.

Location also affects the overall cost, as CoV seems to be the most $$$ and slowest in permit approvals. It's almost incredible how long and drawn out an entire custom build takes.

[E-40six]

Originally Posted by Hondaracer

Rough rough numbers for somthing like that you’re probably looking between 650 and 800k

That's about right, we're in the process of building a duplex in e.van and we're around the 600k range for 2 x 3bd/2.5bath

[Tone Loc]

Originally Posted by originalhypa

The fuerdai are a parasitic culture who are taking full advantage of the liberal Canadian laws put in place years ago.

If our government were more proactive, this crisis would never have happened.

Instead, our government and our developers bent over backwards and let this happen all in the name of making a quick buck. I refuse to believe that all of these people much more educated than me, with more credentials and more statistical information, did not see this coming. Especially when not even a year ago, Christy Clark went to China on taxpayers' dime and basically lobbied for them to invest even more money here.

As for "taking advantage", go look at the pictures/videos of the condo presales on the previous page of this thread. Look who those pre-sale events are clearly catering to. Are the Chinese really taking advantage? Or are the developers and real estate community bending over and spreading their cheeks, begging them to come in?

[UFO]

A couple of points.

I think if there was NO overseas/Asian/whatever you want to call it marketing for presales, there would still be more than enough local demand to fill the presale lines. For every 1 overseas speculator, there are 4-5 local speculators who are trying to make the same quick buck. So target your anger towards the foreign buyers if you want, but your local brethren are as big of a problem if not even bigger--these are people who fully understand what is going on in this locale and directly pushing things in the wrong direction. On the flip side, it IS a dog eat dog world; nobody is going to hold your hand in life--certainly not your elected government. You find a way to get what you want or you alter your expectation.

We can go back a couple hundred pages in this thread, the common theme was that Vancouver is not a 'world-class city' and cannot/should not sustain the growth of 5 years ago. Well hindsight is 20/20, but I would like to add that world-class cities are not born overnight. The change we've seen over the years is a part of that growth, and with growth there is change. The Vancouver that we pre-millenials grew up in is gone for good, there's no sense dwelling on the good ol' days and wishing things could go back in time. I personally think that it's an amazing thing that people in Vancouver can survive the cost of living without a real economic driver--I realize many are just surviving and not thriving, but there are more who are able to find ways to make it work than those who cannot.

This thought came to mind when I was reading an article in the paper about Vancouver marketing its lowest annual salary in Canada for software engineers (~$60k usd vs ~$62k in Toronto, which is still about $20-30k lower than US cities) when preparing a package for Amazon. Of course some sensitive types were crying out about how Vancouver should be paying more to meet the cost of living instead of noting the low salary as a benefit, etc etc. News flash, if you don't think the job is paying you well enough, then don't accept it.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by UFO

I think if there was NO overseas/Asian/whatever you want to call it marketing for presales, there would still be more than enough local demand to fill the presale lines. For every 1 overseas speculator, there are 4-5 local speculators who are trying to make the same quick buck. So target your anger towards the foreign buyers if you want, but your local brethren are as big of a problem if not even bigger--these are people who fully understand what is going on in this locale and directly pushing things in the wrong direction. On the flip side, it IS a dog eat dog world; nobody is going to hold your hand in life--certainly not your elected government. You find a way to get what you want or you alter your expectation.

IMO, the primary problem is not presales / marketing to overseas investors. That is merely an industry response to the market because the sales teams in the RE industry has the sharpest sense of who their most lucrative customers are. Our housing affordability crisis has reached it current state because there is too much foreign money pouring in to scoop up the available inventory. Note that I said foreign money, not foreign buyers. The buyers may be local residents (permanent or not), or they may be non-residents / citizens. There is a lot of evidence -- be it ancedotal, statistical, or academic, that many of these buyers have "non-Anglicised Chinese names" -- however you want to interpret that.

[Tapioca]

I hate to say it, but it says a lot about what people really think about housing if only a couple hundred people show up:

Hundreds rally in Vancouver to demand affordable, secure housing - British Columbia - CBC News

[UFO]

The problem especially the way the media are portraying it is definitely the overseas buyers/investors, an antogonizing of that smallish 10-25% percentage of buyers. The rhetoric basically that they are buying all of what's available and more, so hard working Vancouverites can't afford a place to live. The reality is that if you cut out 75% of those using 'foreign money', local speculators will swoop in all the same and we are exactly where we are right now.

Vancouver, and to a large part Canada, has always been an immigrant country. Looking at 'non-Anglicised Chinese names' is such an oversimiplification. I understand why it needs to be done based on the data set available, and also that it can LEAD to evidence pointing towards trends.

I have a non-Anglicised Chinese name I've lived here 35+ years, and I don't think my situation is unique on RS or in the GVRD. So we're considered 'foreign money' now?

[Mr.HappySilp]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

I hate to say it, but it says a lot about what people really think about housing if only a couple hundred people show up:

Hundreds rally in Vancouver to demand affordable, secure housing - British Columbia - CBC News

is cold and besdie is Chinese new year. Why should people want to go rally in the cold when they can have a nice meal indoor.

[Traum]

Originally Posted by UFO

The reality is that if you cut out 75% of those using 'foreign money', local speculators will swoop in all the same and we are exactly where we are right now.

Without the foreign money, who are the speculators going to mass sell the units to? Regular working class Canadians? Speculators are not the cause of the problem; they are merely a consequence, or perhaps even a side effect, to the real cause because people just want to make a quick buck. The foreign money is what is driving up demand.

[CivicBlues]

Originally Posted by UFO

I have a non-Anglicised Chinese name I've lived here 35+ years, and I don't think my situation is unique on RS or in the GVRD. So we're considered 'foreign money' now?

[68style]

I don't even think the problem is even just because the money is foreign... part of the problem is that it's not a fair playing surface... a lot of the money that's coming in was earned illegally or in a country where laws are not equitable to ours. We, as residents of Canada, literally cannot make money the same way they can or in anywhere near the same volumes they are able to and be able to compete.

How do you end up winning when the "other team" is constantly cheating and the referees (Government of Canada/banks in Canada) knows they are but actually helps them cheat and/or doesn't care?

This city and Toronto were basically taken away from residents and handed over to whoever had the most money, which I understand is capitalism at its finest, but with zero consideration for anything resembling a social fabric or community and it's only a matter of time until it all blows up in their faces... not that they will care, because they already made their money.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Traum

Without the foreign money, who are the speculators going to mass sell the units to? Regular working class Canadians? Speculators are not the cause of the problem; they are merely a consequence, or perhaps even a side effect, to the real cause because people just want to make a quick buck. The foreign money is what is driving up demand.

Who have the speculators been 'mass selling' the units to over the past 3-5 years? Locals, especially those with FOMO... with access to historically cheap money. The $14dolla balla effect has been strong especially in Vancouver, and I think this extends into home ownership as well. I recall the most aggressive report was saying 20% ownership is foreign, so there is still 80% locals who are buying to live and to flip. In my demographic and those 5-10 years older than myself with more equity built up, there is certainly a lot of buying and flipping.

I think with mortgage rates trending upwards, tightening restrictions on borrowing, we will begin to see some more of a divide between local and foreign buyers. But to what degree I don't know. Whatever the effect you can bet that those a lot smarter

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

Lol, I already have. But legally my Chinese name is still there, and part of the paperwork to the house. Once again, not a unique situation for those in similar situations.

[CivicBlues]

Yeah I thought this thread needed a stupid Simpsons joke. Tons of people's legal names are still non-anglicized Chinese, even those born here. Maybe a better indicator would have been names spelled using Pinyin vs Wade-Giles

[Traum]

Access to cheap money and lax borrowing restrictions will tend to correct themselves over time though. When the $14 balla finally come to realize after a few years that he has an unservicable mortgage on his shoulders, he will either sell at a reduced price, or the bank will foreclose his property and sell it for him. Let is happen often enough, and the market will correct itself just as it is supposed to do in a cyclical manner.

Originally Posted by UFO

Who have the speculators been 'mass selling' the units to over the past 3-5 years? Locals, especially those with FOMO... with access to historically cheap money. The $14dolla balla effect has been strong especially in Vancouver, and I think this extends into home ownership as well. I recall the most aggressive report was saying 20% ownership is foreign, so there is still 80% locals who are buying to live and to flip. In my demographic and those 5-10 years older than myself with more equity built up, there is certainly a lot of buying and flipping.

I think with mortgage rates trending upwards, tightening restrictions on borrowing, we will begin to see some more of a divide between local and foreign buyers. But to what degree I don't know. Whatever the effect you can bet that those a lot smarter

[Harvey Specter]

I'm starting to see $1.5m homes popping up for sale in Vancouver but you still have the idiots who haven't received the memo listing tear down homes for $1.8m. I still think $1.5m is too high because we're at the early stages of a correction and I'm predicting we'll see some homes in Vancouver getting listed for $1.2m by end of this year.

[Traum]

A house that has sort of caught my eye was initially listed in early Jan for $1.7M. A month and a half into the listing, it has adjusted the price to $1.6M...

As prices drop, inventory is going to reduce as well. As mentioned before, I have a growing need to move into a bigger space. It is just so hard to determine when would be a good time to execute the home upsizing... The last thing I can afford is to have the bank come calling out to me for more money...

[Harvey Specter]

Originally Posted by Traum

A house that has sort of caught my eye was initially listed in early Jan for $1.7M. A month and a half into the listing, it has adjusted the price to $1.6M...

As prices drop, inventory is going to reduce as well. As mentioned before, I have a growing need to move into a bigger space. It is just so hard to determine when would be a good time to execute the home upsizing... The last thing I can afford is to have the bank come calling out to me for more money...

In regards to inventory I personally think you'll see an increase. You have a lot of people who own secondary rental properties who will see the market changing, panic and unload and you also have builders with multiple properties that will need to unload.

I would wait, prices will come down. There is nothing in the immediate future that indicates to me we'll see a jump in prices. Rates are going up globally and we'll probably see further restrictions to foreign ownership and a clamp down on money laundering.

[Hondaracer]

Originally Posted by Harvey Specter

I'm starting to see $1.5m homes popping up for sale in Vancouver but you still have the idiots who haven't received the memo listing tear down homes for $1.8m. I still think $1.5m is too high because we're at the early stages of a correction and I'm predicting we'll see some homes in Vancouver getting listed for $1.2m by end of this year.

The correction! Time to get in

[Tapioca]

Look at who's moving into the average Vancouver special on the East Side. The change in demographics in neighbourhoods like South Main, Hastings Sunrise, or Cedar Cottage has been striking.

The median household income of those households with children is actually higher in Vancouver than it is in Toronto. I think there are more power couple families in this region than people would like to acknowledge. For example, the median household income of households with children in certain parts of the City of Vancouver is nearly 200K (e.g. Yaletown) based on the last census.

There are fewer and fewer detached homes in Vancouver every year because of rezoning and development. Now that the gap between condos and detached is closing fast, eventually, some of these power couples with children will want to trade up.

[welfare]

Originally Posted by Harvey Specter

I would wait, prices will come down. There is nothing in the immediate future that indicates to me we'll see a jump in prices. Rates are going up globally and we'll probably see further restrictions to foreign ownership and a clamp down on money laundering.

But the government thinks it's a supply issue

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Tapioca

Look at who's moving into the average Vancouver special on the East Side. The change in demographics in neighbourhoods like South Main, Hastings Sunrise, or Cedar Cottage has been striking.

Traditionally, these types would have bought into the west side so now they've been squeezed to the edges of the former ghettos.

Now that the gap between condos and detached is closing fast, eventually, some of these power couples with children will want to trade up.

My feel is this current plateau/dip in detached will also turn around, as the young couple who have bought into a 600k 1br can choose between a newer smaller strata townhome or an older detached and be their own bosses. At some point these silly condo prices will level off like they did for detached, especially since detached have stayed pretty flat for the past year, and the gap will widen again to a degree

[hud 91gt]

As one of the forums most pessimistic real estate posters, you can thank me for finally purchasing in this retarded market and shortly thereafter will see see everything fall on its face. Your welcome but that’s ok, because it needs to happen.